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Old 03-17-2010, 04:20 PM
letsgetreal letsgetreal is offline
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I'd like to know what data was used to determine the migration of different demographics? The thoughts of the OP is based on his idea that folks will do certain things , in a certain way and a certain order.........I just don't buy into that.
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Old 03-19-2010, 12:13 AM
NucMedic NucMedic is offline
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After much thought, I decided "I ain't running!"
Those with a AR-15 and a BOB aren't prepared for a long-term situation... the only type I see that would cause people to evacuate a city.
Traditionally, when hard times strike rural areas, the country folk head to the city.
I witnessed this first-hand. I was in Nepal late last year. Kathmandu's population has swelled because of the low-grade guerrilla war and rice crop failures. The countryside couldn't support them. Rural communities lived in fear of roving guerrillas and probably the Army too. There is safety in numbers and the city provided that.
Small towns simply don't have the resources to handle a mega-city exodus.
Imagine a million carloads of refugees heading towards a town with a handful of gasoline stations, a couple of restaurants, a grocery store. Imagine said refugees, some with their BOB and AR, suddenly find that the gasoline is all gone and the food all consumed and now... they're stranded.
I'm not knocking having a Bug Out Bag. They have their place. What I am
questioning is the fantasy of grabbing the BOB and thinking it will sustain you
forever.
Back in the day, when Yugoslavia broke up into warring ethnic groups, the
isolated farms and tiny communities often did not survive. A small group of people simply cannot farm, perform chores and stand guard against determined, well armed hunter/killer teams bent on looting food and goods.
Real survival means the ability to grow and store food. It takes a community.
You can't do it alone.
Some garden. Others make and repair, or care for the sick and injured. Others stand guard.
Just my thoughts for the evening.
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Old 03-19-2010, 06:04 PM
Panekleroy Panekleroy is offline
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Thank you Numedic for a realistic and historic assessment. BOB's are a fine idea for local or regional disaster. Beyond that there is nothing here in the rural areas for you to survive on except other rural people.
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Old 03-19-2010, 06:42 PM
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Well, geez....I don't like either option, rural area or the city.

If I have a rural home, then I'm trying to defend my home and family by myself unless I can talk my neighbors to move into the house with me. Then we have to defend against idiots who start their car, put it into DRIVE and sit back and watch it plow into my house. Or people lobbing molotav cocktails trying to burn us alive in our own home.

If I have a city home, I suppose I could easily round up sheeple around me and move them into my house, make everyone do around the clock shifts. But then how do we support that many people with enough water, food? How would I take care of all the sanitation needs? Seems like maybe we could hold off the Zombies, but then we will probably die from the sanitation issues...(btw, it seems like infectious diseases are really going to kick in and help to clear out many Zombies, unfortunately many good people will die too).

So, I suppose, I opt for door #3....take my family and live like Swiss Family Robinson in the deep woods miles from rural and city. We probably will eventually starve to death or die from disease, but at least we would not have to live with the constant fear of Zombie attacks.

Very very tough one unless you have situated yourself into a militia in a rural community.
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Old 03-20-2010, 11:51 PM
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Originally Posted by SgtBooker44 View Post
Right on the money.

Out of sight and out of mind is pretty much a mantra.

Low key by not having a big production farm or fort helps stay off the radar.

Plan for the firefight, but try to avoud it at all cost. Nobody wants to watch a family member die.

Well said...Plan ..prepare for all scenarios....Always low key...Lay low but ready...
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Old 03-21-2010, 12:40 AM
AK47THUG AK47THUG is offline
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That is why stories or SHTF writing such as The Patriot, Light Out, and many others are a good source to read and learn to not do what they preach in there. The authors of such literature write about SHTF but they haven't completely divorce themselves from the modern American luxury living standard. In Light Out, Mark and his family enjoy those nice hot showers every day after a EMP attack that wiped out much of modern electronic equipment. The people of Light Out also seem to like going for joy rides in their Jeep and trucks like they are taking part in Survivor TV show training. In all of such literature, the 'survivalists' are way too eager to engage unnecessary firefight.

I could go on but you get the idea. After reading so many great review of The Patriot, I bought the book. I am half way through and I think it's a great entertaining write-up and only helpful when one can think for himself and not do at least half of the things the 'survivalists' in the book do. To be prank, most of the people in this country won't make it and I am afraid myself is included. We simply either don't have the mindset or resource or both to survive a real disaster. I know I currently don't have to resource to prep to survive more than 2 years without having to resort to cannibalism, which I don't look down upon during bad time. I treat all earth species equally.
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Old 03-21-2010, 04:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by letsgetreal View Post
I'd like to know what data was used to determine the migration of different demographics? The thoughts of the OP is based on his idea that folks will do certain things , in a certain way and a certain order.........I just don't buy into that.
I simply stated that I figure some will stay and some will go. I drew no distinctions between demographics, nor assumed percentages. I think that's a fair assessment. The post wasn't about who would do what, but what would happen if those who left, couldn't make it and came back, more desperate than before.
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Old 03-21-2010, 04:46 PM
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Default Don't forget the FEDS Fred

We always seem to forget that the Feds will be trying to Survive /control / maintain power during any SHTF crisis they will not just conveniently "go away".
no matter how much we wish or dont wish it. Short of the Big Asteroid scenario which will likely occurr so quickly that all we will be able to do is bend over and kiss it goodby, THEY will be there ... trying to take your guns and preparations. It has already been written into emergency law that they can and will take anything they "deem" (there is that word again) in excess to your needs, and use it for the general good of all. So They will go on bringing pain to the people just as they do now. Unfortunately there will be all kinds of other groups, large and small looking to cannabalize, steal and rape you and yours to prolong their own lives. Make no mistake it will be an absolutely horrific existence if it ever comes to pass. I suppose history could repeat with feudal communities and tribes rising up around "strongmen" and warring with each other? Perhaps getting as far out there as possible might be one way to go. Live like a proverbial mountain man in some inhospitable place just so as to go unmolested. But as someone suggested , well organized and prepared groups ready and capable of protecting their own and repelling borders might fare best.
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Old 03-21-2010, 04:49 PM
tiecuando tiecuando is offline
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The bright side to this is that ammunition will run out eventually. Either wait until they do, and then shoot them then, or chop them down with an axe.
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Old 03-21-2010, 04:56 PM
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Interesting observations. I wonder what the optimum size group would be?
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Old 03-22-2010, 09:11 AM
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I lived in a city all my life.The people with money will leave as soon as they hear the first gun shots.These people have a place to go. They will head to there summer home or mountain retreat with what ever they can carry.

The hardcore working man will stay put. These guys will united with all there drinking buddies.In a group like this you will find a couple cops,tradesmen, medic, firemen, plumber, welder,ex vet etc.You better believe they will take care of there familes.These guys will grab there fair share of resources and they won't be afraid of no gang bangers. A lot of these guys will be prepared and will pool there resources together.

These guys will have no problems sealing up a area since they all live in the same area. A few might need to relocate to the area picked, but I don't see that being a problem.In this group there will be several truckers that know how to drive a rig.Some of these guys own stores and ware houses and will use them to secure the needs of there group.

Most likely this group will most likely have the law behind them.Ever area of the city will be different.Even in the poor area people will pool there resources together. In this area the gangs will most likely take control.I would bet they would not try to raid the other areas that are being protected. This would turn into a blood bath for them.

They would not out number other groups in my city or suburbs.They would be better to raid the country side where people would be in small groups due to being so far apart from each other.A group of 15 to 25 guys could take out a farmer or just steal from his farm.A farmer would wake up to see his crops being picked and the cattle being loaded up in a truck.A gun pointed at his head or at his daughter will be his rude awaking.

These guys would head right back to the city.They will have plenty of gas to do raiding for months.Any where within a hour of a city would be a problem.As fuel becomes a issue they will setup raiding camps further out.One of the big things with them will be high jacking trucks with supplies. How do you farm when you will be shot right off your tractor ?

All you need to do is read this web site to figure out where the food will be.The odds that a farmer will be a prepper is pretty good.If you think gangs don't read these web sites your nuts.
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Old 03-22-2010, 10:50 AM
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Default Good check of the pulse...

I originally came here as well as to a couple other survival sites to sort of check the pulse to see what other contemporary Americans are thinking about this subject. Mainly because I live in an area that if SHTF would be a place that people would likely head toward. We already have all the tourists coming due to the Twilight movie. Folks from Seattle/Tacoma already come out here for hunting, fishing and camping.

I've seen James Wesley Rawles book, Patriots mentioned here and there on this site. I can't recommend it enough not only because it's entertaining but seems entirely probable as far as how society would react. Most people will crap their pants with no clue on what to do next.

Though a fiction work, the book has many tactical and material methodologies throughout which is why I bought it. The sort of far fetched part of it's theme however was based on the main cast of charactors who planned for a dozen years, were all financally well off yuppies who planned, trained and bought supplies for years on some property in Idaho.

Yes, folks like that would likely do much better than most. No doubt.

But that leaves me out. Even out here in the sticks where guys familiar with the bush, hunting, fishing, etc...most of them I know at work anyway, talk about meeting up to play World of Warcraft night after night.

I have a few decent neighbors who would likely network as well as a few who are elderly or widows and such. Certainly not a military force to defend the area.

I hope though that if things deteriorate much more that more people will wake up and start to get their things in order.

But as far as country folks headed to the city? Nobody I know out here wants anything to do with the city under normal times. SHTF times would likely lead to many bridges to (and from) the city going down.

Last edited by boomerscaboose; 03-22-2010 at 10:52 AM.. Reason: spelling
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Old 03-22-2010, 11:43 AM
Panekleroy Panekleroy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MR_SLOW View Post
I lived in a city all my life.The people with money will leave as soon as they hear the first gun shots.These people have a place to go. They will head to there summer home or mountain retreat with what ever they can carry.

The hardcore working man will stay put. These guys will united with all there drinking buddies.In a group like this you will find a couple cops,tradesmen, medic, firemen, plumber, welder,ex vet etc.You better believe they will take care of there familes.These guys will grab there fair share of resources and they won't be afraid of no gang bangers. A lot of these guys will be prepared and will pool there resources together.

These guys will have no problems sealing up a area since they all live in the same area. A few might need to relocate to the area picked, but I don't see that being a problem.In this group there will be several truckers that know how to drive a rig.Some of these guys own stores and ware houses and will use them to secure the needs of there group.

Most likely this group will most likely have the law behind them.Ever area of the city will be different.Even in the poor area people will pool there resources together. In this area the gangs will most likely take control.I would bet they would not try to raid the other areas that are being protected. This would turn into a blood bath for them.

They would not out number other groups in my city or suburbs.They would be better to raid the country side where people would be in small groups due to being so far apart from each other.A group of 15 to 25 guys could take out a farmer or just steal from his farm.A farmer would wake up to see his crops being picked and the cattle being loaded up in a truck.A gun pointed at his head or at his daughter will be his rude awaking.

These guys would head right back to the city.They will have plenty of gas to do raiding for months.Any where within a hour of a city would be a problem.As fuel becomes a issue they will setup raiding camps further out.One of the big things with them will be high jacking trucks with supplies. How do you farm when you will be shot right off your tractor ?

All you need to do is read this web site to figure out where the food will be.The odds that a farmer will be a prepper is pretty good.If you think gangs don't read these web sites your nuts.
You make my point very well that the street gangs are not the people that rural areas should be worried about. You also make the point that the best strategy for rural areas is scorched earth, leave nothing for you to take.
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Old 03-22-2010, 04:53 PM
biffula biffula is offline
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"Correct me if I'm wrong, but to me this suggests your of the second train of thought? To my mind once the food begins to run out and the violence escalates, your general run of the mill sheeple will leave the city, looking for food or safety in the country, the gangs/criminal element will either leave the city looking for isolated farms/communities to pillage, or following the refugee's for easy pickings."

I'm with you, just ask the white farmers in South Africa about how sticking it out in the country works for ya.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/266680
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Old 03-22-2010, 05:48 PM
tiecuando tiecuando is offline
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The idea of gangs looting the country side taking from farmers doesn't render the concept of individualism moot. The real response to such a thing is to only grow enough subsistence for yourself, and maybe your family if you have one. I mean, the numbers they would have to use to overpower you then becomes a detriment to them if you don't and cannot make enough food to feed all of them.
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Old 03-22-2010, 06:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MR_SLOW View Post
The hardcore working man will stay put. These guys will united with all there drinking buddies.In a group like this you will find a couple cops,tradesmen, medic, firemen, plumber, welder,ex vet etc.You better believe they will take care of there familes.These guys will grab there fair share of resources and they won't be afraid of no gang bangers. A lot of these guys will be prepared and will pool there resources together.

These guys will have no problems sealing up a area since they all live in the same area.
spot on. Get to know thy neighbor(s).
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Old 03-22-2010, 08:51 PM
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Good point I never thought of things this way, and I'm guilty of those shootout fantasies were you get in action movie shootouts (you know where you don't get hit but one shot everyone).
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