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Old 05-25-2020, 07:29 PM
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Originally Posted by dealfinder500 View Post
This is what I would do. Unless there was some overwhelming compelling factor causing me to stay.

Mowgli, re-reading your first post, if you feel CA is that bad and is going to get worse (I'm not disagreeing with you), you might be better off getting out now while you are still able to.
I completely agree. This from the river, now taken over by homeless, about 2 miles from me. A new guy in town asked where the best place was to go to the river. Here’s the comments he got. Just for curiosity sake.

I grew up in this river. Hiding horses and swimming. I don’t go there at all anymore. About 10 years ago our small town made the 10 best small towns list.

“Hi everyone. My partner and I are new to the area. What is everyone’s favorite river hang or swim hole? TIA”

“under the last overpass going towards ukiah. Locals call it McCutchans. Don’t bother with under the first street bridge, too many homeless encampments down there. Also out McCray Rd there’s a river park with a boat ramp. You kind of have to adventure a little to find the good spots or know someone with private property along the river“

“Damn, we use to have baptisms at First Street Bridge.“

’”I’m 63 and was raised here. my strong advice is to STAY OUT of the river water. Homeless urine and poop in the water and water banks. They have drug paraphernalia and holy heck who knows what else. Regardless which bridge they sleep under you are swimming in a toilet 🚽 so stay out of the toilet! You are in an awesome little town but the homeless has taken over our beautiful river. Save your time with not only the homeless but others as well, so 90% homeless Crap everywhere!
Don’t get sick from the river water.“

“I agree I grew up In the river. It I won’t go in anymore“

“We use to float from Squaw Rock to First Street, so sad this is happening“

“Use extreme caution around that water. That river is a toilet for many from Ukiah south.“
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Old 05-25-2020, 07:43 PM
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I see two issues: One is what do you do with the $150,000? What "investment" will still be liquid, and keep the relative value of the dollars? The stock market is particularly risky currently--bonds even worse. Precious metals: a way to hold a part of your wealth, but they have underperformed the stock market. This does not appear to be a good time to buy PM... Or are you going to "invest" in your homestead in another area now? You have to pay off that $150K, at some point--and you have to pay interest on it--no matter how little that interest is--it is still money out of your pocket. Although the pundits say "no inflation". I already see it happening.

The second issue appears to be medical care for your daughter. You are established with Kaiser--and there are good and bad things with Kaiser. (I am a retired MD, and guardian for a relative who has Kaiser insurance in Calif.) If your employer/retirement provider will keep paying for Kaiser, that is almost a lock in. There are not many Kaiser facilities outside of Calif. But you can investigate facilities in Colorado, Georgia, Hawaii, Maryland, Oregon, Virginia, Washington which are run by Kaiser.

We left Calif. 28 years ago for the same reasons you cite--only it is far worse now. (My kids still live in CA, so I get daily reports)...We sold our modest Calif. house, and bought a very nice waterfront home in Florida, for 1/3 of the sale price of that house....Our overall living costs are far less than CA--no state income tax, insurance is much less, no personal property tax, labor costs are less, Gasoline has gone up to $1.64 a gallon recently...

What is the chance of finding the BOL now--finding Kaiser nearby, if you feel you want to continue that (We have Cal Pers, Insurance, with Blue Cross/Shield. We prefer choice to a single provider.).

I don't think that a Venezuela type of society will happen right away--but there are many risks of Calif. being at the forefront of the great socialization experiment of the "Green New deal" etc>.

I would keep the $150k in the bank and over two years the cost of the loan and then interest payments on it would be $17k. My rational for this is I think the credit markets will freeze up. But after doing the math I think I’m best off not taking the money out.

I’m now considering saving every penny , instead of paying the house off. That way in 1 1/2 - 2 years I’ll have a descent wad of cash which will probably buy an emergency property if that becomes necessary. Or, if things become sane again I can pay off my house. Doing it this way will cost me approximately $3,600 over two years. Not perfect but it will give me some options in a fluid situation.

My daughter is Autistic, has serious epilepsy, and asthma. We’ve been with Kaiser for 32 years who have been great for us.

If I left the state we could set ourselves up very well with my dream farm and a wad of cash. Move to a small town. But I’d be away from my mom, sister, son and his family. He has 1 3 year old and one on the way. I don’t think that’s a great idea either. This dilemma really has me stumped. I think I need to save money like crazy and see how things evolve.
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Old 05-25-2020, 07:45 PM
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We have decided not to go in debt to buy bug out property unless we can get a group of investors to team up with to minimize payments as a LLC.
Being as debt free as possible is really the smartest thinking. It really is. I also expect California property tax to go up. A lot! As more people lose their jobs, homes, and become dependent, they’ll demand the end of prop 13 benefit for the greedy land barons.
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Old 05-25-2020, 07:52 PM
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Originally Posted by TXplowgirl View Post
Hey Mogli, check out Dave Ramsey's book, The Total Money Makeover, he discusses financial situations and you might find a solution to your problem.

https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/the-to...9&idiq=3903792
I’ve read his stuff and listened to his podcasts. Mostly I listen to these guys at SB. Seriously. I’m in a 100% better position now then 5 years ago from reading you all. Sold my big fancy house on a 8,300 sq. ft. Lot. Bought the cheapest house in town on over 1/2 acre. My mortgage went from $330k to 48k. I paid off all my other debt and my car too just 4 months ago. All in 5 years. Now all I have is this $48k mortgage, and a huge garden with egg and rabbit meat production. This property has more than doubled in value with just some paint and elbow grease.
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Old 05-25-2020, 07:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Mogli View Post
Being as debt free as possible is really the smartest thinking. It really is.
That is the way I am going.

Currently $17K left on the house, and all three cars are paid for.
New roof went on last week, paid cash.
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Old 05-25-2020, 08:16 PM
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You need a Plan. Either stay or sell and move. I was a lifelong Californian, then retired and moved to Florida. Best decision I ever made.

IF you decide to sell, decide to either do so immediately or take your time. Take the proceeds, and pay in full for a new home elsewhere. Settle for less house, with $$ leftover to provide for a few months living expenses. Your daughter’s need’s complicate your planning, but not insurmountably so. Perhaps, she would thrive in a different environment?

If you decide to stay, then either save $$ like your life depends on it, or accelerate paying off your mortgage. Your idea to pull $ out has merit, but also increases your monthly payment, which is not something I personally would consider at this point. YMMV.

Only you can determine what is best for you and your daughter. Decide carefully, but don’t be afraid to move just because of fear of the unknown. Is your daughter old enough or able to participate in the planning? If so, then might giving her the opportunity to be part of the process now reduce stress later?

Right now, crystal balls everywhere are muddy, however, California’s problems are not going to subside even if CV disappears overnight and the economy starts booming. Personally, I think the rest of this year is going to get rocky, especially in CA due to the budget shortfall and other issues already mentioned in this thread. Next year is a crap shoot- could be good or bad, your guess is as good as anyone’s. In the long term, I believe CA is a lost cause.

Good luck, plan carefully, then execute aggressively, and expect challenges- which can also be converted to opportunities. . Be prepared to deal with the FUD, which accompanies any change.

ETA: One other thing, and perhaps the primary consideration: What is in your daughter’s Long Term best interest? Will California be a safe place for her? Do her health care needs dictate you remain in place?

And, please keep us posted as to your decision.


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I think California is a lost cause too. In fact I think we’re flirting with a Venezuela type collapse. Maybe not this year but I believe it’s inevitable.

I love that bolded paragraph. Expect challenges and work to convert them to opportunity. This is just a great idea. I remember, and not too long ago, that I thought things going bad was abnormal. Now I know they’re just a part of being alive and that knowledge and acceptance took most of the pain out of hard life lessons. Still, I really don’t want to experience Venezuela without a solid ‘get out of town’ plan.


Thank you and to everyone for all this valuable input. You all gave me a lot to consider. While I’m still in flux I’ve temporarily taken the refinance idea off the table. Should the deterioration accelerate I will revisit that idea and this thread.
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Old 05-25-2020, 08:17 PM
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That is the way I am going.

Currently $17K left on the house, and all three cars are paid for.
New roof went on last week, paid cash.
Congratulations! Wonderful accomplishment!
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Old 05-26-2020, 08:30 AM
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Hi Everyone, I’m have a dilemma and would value your insights. My goal has always been to be debt free and I’m almost there having paid off debt with the exception of a tiny mortgage on my home.

I feel like we’ve had a paradigm shift with the national debt, continues QE to infinity, unimaginable unemployment of which many jobs are not coming back, continued assault on small business while promoting large corporations, and the like. I believe we likely are headed for a Venezuela type collapse. I’m worried about a worst case scenario situation.

I’m located in the SF North Bay Area. 90 miles from SF but still with a tremendous Collectivist mindset.

I’m pondering pulling money out so if things continue to degenerate I have a way out. This money would be earmarked for a BOL. I believe real estate values may crash and pulling money out later may be very difficult.

The new loan would be 1% lower than my current interest rate. So that helps especially if we get into hyperinflation later down the road. Or lending may freeze up.

I really see communism taking firm hold in California. The 2nd Amendment is under extreme attack and I believe confiscation is supported by the majority. There’s talk of forced vaccinations and other clearly Authoritarian measures.

I feel like I need to secure a way out and if our situation continues to degenerate at these accelerated rates I may lose this opportunity. I understand this is paranoid thinking but I have a seriously handicapped daughter and I need to be looking at this with my eyes wide open. I can’t afford rose colored glasses with this.

Finally, the division and hostility has increased to a critical level. I see posts on Facebook daily calling for conservatives, or anyone protesting this level of personal liberty assaults, to be gotten rid of. Truly frightening. I’ll leave you this video which clearly states what I’m talking about. Notice the audience doesn’t laugh as if she’s joking or go, “Huh???”, as if they’re shocked. This narrative is something they’re used to hearing. Let that sink in. It’s ‘normal’ discourse to this audience! Acceptable!!!

So my question is, what are the pros and cons to pulling money out of my house? Should I do it? Would you do it?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVEj...Sw5MInhrPrmWXA
If I did, I wouldnt ever do it out of fear. I would only do it seeking new opportunities. The great thing about a home equity loan, or a cash out refinance, is that you can always put the money back into the mortgage at little cost.

If you arent sitting on cash, I think it is a reasonable time to have cash ready to take advantage of upcoming opportunities.

The caveat is that if you are the type to spend the money on toys or other depreciating items, that is a bad idea. The reason why homes are so useful for most people is that they are incompetent at saving. A home is a way to save a little money that would otherwise be wasted on junk. For most people pulling money out of a home or retirement is a bad idea.

My land was completely paid off. It is worth about 650K, I took out a mortgage on it of about 350K about a month ago. Im sitting on about 1 million in cash. Fortunes are made when things collapse. I wanted to make sure I had as much cash as possible to take advantage of crashing asset prices and to weather the upcoming economic storm.

Im still (relatively) young and so am more aggressive with my investing. A lot will depend on your risk tolerance. My net worth is about 8 million, about 5 million is tied in my business, so it could evaporate in the next year. My goal is to have at least 10 million in liquid assets (stocks, cash, real estate) passively generating about 1 million/year in income in the next 10 years. To get there, I cant just hold cash in an interest account.
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Old 05-26-2020, 10:19 AM
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I took out a mortgage on it of about 350K about a month ago. Im sitting on about 1 million in cash. Fortunes are made when things collapse.
There was a collapse in March, why didn't you buy stock then or are you expecting a more extreme collapse? If so, at what level in the S&P will you be a buyer and what stocks will you buy?
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Old 05-26-2020, 10:56 AM
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$48k. I can pay it off in about 1 1/2 -2 years and yes, that is something I’m considering.
I'm a big fan of paying off the mortgage once you get to where you want to be, especially for those retiring.

I just sold a late relative's house...unexpectedly laid off around age 60, had to cash in their pension plan to make it to SS at age 62, which was the only income they had in retirement.

SS retirement income was ~$1,800/month versus a mortgage plus HELOC payment of ~$1,200/month.

Before paying for utilities (electric/water/gas/cable/phone/internet) insurance on home/auto, property taxes, & luxuries like food.

As you can see they had a very lean retirement.
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Old 05-26-2020, 02:35 PM
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no. with the economy being tenuous, the last thing *I* would do is to put anything at risk that you might not recover from
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Old 05-26-2020, 08:50 PM
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There was a collapse in March, why didn't you buy stock then or are you expecting a more extreme collapse? If so, at what level in the S&P will you be a buyer and what stocks will you buy?
I did buy some. I thought there would be a bigger drop. I do think the worst is yet to come, but Ill be completely happy if things continue to get better from here.
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Old 05-26-2020, 09:18 PM
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I, too, urge you to get out of Dodge ASAP. Also consider that the longer you wait, the more money you will lose to devaluation.

If you don't move now, you may find that any other measures taken would be like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic...
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Old 05-27-2020, 05:07 AM
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Originally Posted by Mathetes View Post
Do not rush to judge a new situation stay calm and think things thru again and again, America has been they these kind of situations before and declinism appears every time we go through a crisis yet we made it past every time.
If you are almost done with the debt finish it off and then all you have is some taxes that can be put off a while if needed, but most of all you have a place that you own, things will not deteriorate fast save your money and if they are getting worse you can still put a downpayment and buy a BOL from a distressed buyer, plenty of homes with acreage all over this vast country.
Just remember if you had sold in haste during the Great Depression then 10 years later that asset would be higher than ever, real estate is a long term hold, treat it as such and you will be safer in the long run, including having a debt free home to give to your children, the greatest gift of all for them.


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This is good advice above, if you want to make your self resistant,pay of the mortgage. Before you create a new one.
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Old 05-27-2020, 04:27 PM
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You still have a lot to consider.
California's problems are not just going to go away. I think tax hikes are on the way due to the crashed economy, and likely wherever you go.
The homeless problem is not going to go away. How does that impact your security, property values?
Your daughter has medical issues, you are getting older. What are your long term plans for both of your medical needs?
Just moving will take planning, time and money for any move. I am still recovering from my move and it has been 6months. Just ball park I'm guessing 15k in extra expenses for the move and getting settled.

Very important if you move to rural property; know your water rights and what they really mean! It would really suck to have underground rights and then need to pay 20k to punch a well so you could use them. Or have nice looking property with class C rights and only get water once ever 3'Rd or 4th yr.
Water is not something most Californian's think about when moving. Yrs ago I knew a person who got caught by the class C trap.
That land is still sagebrush.
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Old 06-02-2020, 11:02 PM
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So, does everyone still think my gloomy forecast for America is too dark? Or have we had a paradigm shift?

On a personal note, some of those riots are 30 miles from me. Our county now has a curfew which the protesters and rioters are ignoring. A lot of violence and vandalism. Freeways blocked. The largest city in my area, Santa Rosa, Ca, put out a call for help from ALL local agencies. In county and out. I’m almost positive my handicapped daughter will not be going back to her day program. She has asthma and wearing a mask isn’t healthy for her.

I think American in collapse and revolution. I think many of our representatives are encouraging it. Am I still too dark? Seriously wondering.

Still on the fence about the cash out but am getting things prepared because I’ll most likely do it. If people start starving my productive property will be confiscated. They didn’t make all those executive orders for nothing.
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Old 06-02-2020, 11:06 PM
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BTW, Thank you for all the great advice. I particularly liked the ideas around looking for opportunities rather than reacting in fear and finding the positive in the negative. Really love those ideas.
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Old 06-03-2020, 01:49 AM
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Not collapsing.

Still advise sell and move, do not borrow.
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Old 06-03-2020, 02:59 PM
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Ditto. Buy something somewhere that you actually want to be....live your goal.
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Old 06-03-2020, 03:09 PM
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Here's something to ponder. You could probably out-right sell your home and come here to Texas and get something comparable to what you have for a lot less. You would then have your extra cash on-hand with no mortgage. Guess what else? If you need a job, we have them. Everything is opened or opening here already....
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