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Old 03-16-2020, 12:43 PM
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[quote=Deadmeat99;20142894]
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Originally Posted by bonegunner View Post

The market of 1977-1990 operated on this strange concept called "fundamentals", something which is alien to the market today. They also traded with actual humans instead of algorithms. That guy would probably get trounced today.
That may well be true.

Those algos make trying to time the market even riskier these days, and could increase one's losses.
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Old 03-16-2020, 12:48 PM
FalconsBravesHawks FalconsBravesHawks is offline
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Originally Posted by PalmettoTree View Post
I am about 50% in cash now. I started before this decline. Dumb luck I guess.

On what I am still holding I have determined the market has pulled them down without cause. So I am holding them.

All other things being equal, if you have not cashed out by now, I would not.
I'm 100% out, some in cash, some in muni's. Not dumb luck here, but from knowledge gained from being a part of this board and not having my head stuck up my rear like 99% of the world apparantly
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Old 03-16-2020, 01:11 PM
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How anyone can leave money in these markets is beyond my comprehension.

Smarten up - RUN - don't walk - sell it all - cash out - pay penalties - so what? - buy gold/silver - preserve your wealth!
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Old 03-16-2020, 01:39 PM
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I have two holding that are at a loss both utilities so I am not worried about them. I always keep 100 shares of PFF do I can stay on top of yields. That cost yield was at 6%. Because it went down so far I got in with early extended market trading and upped the yield cost to 7%. I also purchased some TMO and BAX. TMO should benefit from test kits and BAX will get a share of vaccine money IMO. Caught both dow in early extended trading. We shall see. Still holding onto cash.
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Old 03-16-2020, 02:12 PM
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How anyone can leave money in these markets is beyond my comprehension.

Smarten up - RUN - don't walk - sell it all - cash out - pay penalties - so what? - buy gold/silver - preserve your wealth!

Long term, the stock market always works it's way higher but when it is sharply lower, like now, it looks horrible. Times like this are the times where many people buy, hold, and make a lot of money.
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Old 03-16-2020, 04:31 PM
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Long term, the stock market always works it's way higher but when it is sharply lower, like now, it looks horrible. Times like this are the times where many people buy, hold, and make a lot of money.

I agree but I'm thinking we're looking at a Great(er) Depression vs a stock market correction this time around. If I'm wrong I've lost out on buying opportunities for sure but if I'm correct then I've preserved my wealth. We make our decisions and live with them.
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Old 03-16-2020, 08:26 PM
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I agree but I'm thinking we're looking at a Great(er) Depression vs a stock market correction this time around. If I'm wrong I've lost out on buying opportunities for sure but if I'm correct then I've preserved my wealth. We make our decisions and live with them.
Wealth preservation is the best strategy depression or recession. That does not mean ignore opportunities. Never try to catch a falling knife but a sharp man always knows to pick it up before it cuts his foot.
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Old 03-17-2020, 03:44 AM
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Originally Posted by bonegunner View Post
I saw Tony Robbins a few years ago on a business/investing show.

He made the point that long term investors who move with market swings, tend to get out too late, and buy in too late.

Further saying, if one had missed the 20 biggest market up days over the last 10 years, they would have lost money.

Here is an article from Investors Business Daily which makes the same point.
I don't buy it and can prove it. Just look at most any stock or fund or index chart. Spike single day gains are rarely such to cause an investor to dramatically miss out. Conversely, spike single day losses can easily wipe YEARS of gains out.

In this century, we've had now 4 singular days that wiped out years of gains.
* Right after 9/11/01, in fact several consecutive days of losses
* 2008 banking defaults, several consecutive days of losses
* 2018 credit losses
* Feb and March 2020 racking up broken single day loss records.

Contrast that with "gains." Gains, like we saw on Friday 3/15/2020 are often wiped right off the table on the next trading day's losses. In real world terms, the market fell some 8% Thursday, then a massive 10% rally on Friday, followed by a 13% selloff on Monday. Total 3 day result was a 11% loss.

The nature of humans is to sell and protect profits when things go up too fast in a single day or consecutive days.

Looking at the S&P, Dow, Russell, Nasdaq, as long as you didn't get in or you sold right before a big drop, you could have gotten in nearly anywhere randomly in the last 20 years and done quite well over time, even missing individual large gain days. Conversely, if you can "get out" when you see a plane hit a tower, and then miss the worst trading week, and then get back in, you avoid the losses and get in at the bottom. Common sense says that's exponentially better.

Further, I don't think there's ever been or it's certainly not common to have 30% gains in a abbreviated period. Gains seem to take a long time. There's many examples of massive - 20, 30, 50% - losses in a abbreviated time-frame like a week or month.
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Old 03-17-2020, 03:54 AM
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Let's not forget that if you've been in the market since at least 2017 you're way ahead anyway. If you cash out, or take some cash, you just have to figure out what to do with it.
I cashed in some stocks about 2 years ago, thinking that the bubble would eventually burst, and have increased my cash holdings, also distributed them in various locations (2 banks--one local in case of national networks being down--also cash in the house, etc.) Be wise.

Wellllll..... not really. By not paying attention folks in common indexes lost 30% in about 3 weeks. And that includes some of the biggest single day GAINS in rallies in history... Yes, it's bad...

GOT to pay attention to your investments!

Dow is almost exactly where it was, 20,000 pts, on inauguration day January 2017. Loss of ~9000 points or about 30%.

Nasdaq is 6900, where it was December 2017. About 3000 off the 9900 high... 30% loss in a month.

S&P is similar story, now at 2300 off the recent high of 3300, for a 1000 pt loss and reset to May 2017... 30% loss in a month.

One predictable bad event and week can wipe out years of risky slow methodical gains and dedicated contributions and such... The lesson is plainly that if you see a plane hit a building, or banks defaulting, or China locking down 800,000,000 people representing 1/10th of the worlds' population that makes or supplies our goods, or the equivalent, you MUST get into cash immediately. OR get stuck in this cycle of slow gains and radical fast losses.
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Old 03-17-2020, 09:40 AM
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We may have seen the bottom in some stocks.
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Old 03-17-2020, 03:21 PM
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We may have seen the bottom in some stocks.
Possibly. I think the panic has settled, and people are realizing what needs to be done and will adjust, and businesses will adjust.

There's going to be more pain but there are opportunities for investors. I got in yesterday, carefully. I did very well today.

Day started pretty rough, and I lost money on a few stocks, like Boeing. But looks like since it's a strategic resource the Feds are going to "bail" Boeing. IMO no chance Boeing is allowed to fail. It's a huge % comparative in the Dow as well as being a critical American company with very important strategic advantages. So I'm not worried at all on BA. The two things causing it to fall from 440 pts to 120 pts are the problem with the 737, which will be resolved, and the lack of current flights and demand along with supply chain issues; that will also be resolved very soon. I can think of few individual companies that are more critical to this nation than Boeing, given its specialized and strategic importance for travel and national defense reasons. I think that stock is set to 'take off' and I didn't want to miss the fast recovery.

Did mixed on a few others but overall it was a fantastic day for me. Pelaton was up 15% and Toyota up 10% and the S&P up 5%...
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Old 03-17-2020, 03:30 PM
FalconsBravesHawks FalconsBravesHawks is offline
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just messin around with the markets right now...bought 3 puts for a little over 2000 on Friday (DAL - Delta), sold today with a profit of 600 ish. Gonna wait for a HUGE up day and buy some more puts of various stocks.
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Old 03-18-2020, 12:25 PM
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Well that was a painful day on the markets... ugh... closed out a lot of positions as some losses (thankfully some gains) with stop limit orders. Thankfully limiting further bloodletting. Yikes...
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Old 03-18-2020, 12:28 PM
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Still time to get out folks, cut those losses.
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Old 03-18-2020, 12:43 PM
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Still time to get out folks, cut those losses.
Some would say "Time to get in!" but it takes some balls....
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Old 03-18-2020, 02:05 PM
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I'm soon retiring and yesterday moved it all from one investment house to another one. So the check is in the mail. The market dropped another 20 points between closing yesterday and today. Can't hit a moving target.
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Old 03-18-2020, 02:56 PM
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Reposting and summarizing this:
Most index gains in 2019, 2018, and 2017 now all gone in 1 month. Many major companies trading at values going back to 2005 or even the 1990s. Gigantic companies are teetering on total collapse ...

Silver and gold not a safehaven. Both have fallen significantly. Bitcoin down ~50% in a month. Oil prices collapsing.

I have to agree with this billionaire fund manager.
A very sobering video. I strongly encourage everyone to watch it.

Our entire nation is in dire financial condition and we must immediately get this under control or we are in irreversible trouble.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/03/18/w ... break.html
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Old 03-18-2020, 02:59 PM
FalconsBravesHawks FalconsBravesHawks is offline
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Originally Posted by FalconsBravesHawks View Post
just messin around with the markets right now...bought 3 puts for a little over 2000 on Friday (DAL - Delta), sold today with a profit of 600 ish. Gonna wait for a HUGE up day and buy some more puts of various stocks.
ughhhhhh....and had I sold today instead of yesterday I would have made 3600 dollars instead of 600.
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Old 03-18-2020, 03:06 PM
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We sold most stocks months ago because they were at all time highs. We are cash heavy in the markets now and looking for bargains so when it does go back up we make money. My wife is on the computer every day managing our retirement money. We have been much better off with Trump in office. Trump is getting a handle on this, but it will take several months to conquer this virus if everyone that can would just stay at home, especially millenials who are spreading the disease with minor problems. It is going to get worse before it gets better.
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Old 03-18-2020, 03:28 PM
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None of us know. That is all I know.
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