Zombie Wave

[Fizbin]

I'm trying to create an estimate of the "Zombie Wave", as I call it, expected time of arrival and make up.

This would be the wave of people who would be creating the exodus from Austin in the event of a disaster. I certainly welcome your thoughts and opinions, that's why I'm posting this.

If this were a localized event specific to Austin, they would leave going in all 4 directions (NESW). If it were a wide spread regional or national disaster I think the exodus would take the form of (in priority) 1 West, 2 East, 3 North, 4 South.

West, as it is the least populated and shortest route to get out of the city. East, the next least populated and not through the northern thick of Round Rock, Pflugerville, Georgetown, and Waco. North, those folks who are starting from RR,Pf, George, would continue north, and finally South, you'd be plain silly to head towards San Antonio, another heavily populated area. A slight deviation to this would be folks who would be heading to the Corpus area or in between.

We are west out on HWY 290, so this direction to west Texas should be a massive cluster.

Based on the event, I feel people would try and get out of the city starting within 1-4 days. This initial wave would be the folks who are not desperate or hungry. They'd be the people who have done some prepping and forethought and are leaving early. They have a destination already in mind.
These people would be harmless with the occasional, out of gassers. This number I feel would account for 10%-20% of the population with 50% of this group using 290 West, thus about 50k-100k of people. That's an average of 19,000 people a day, with about 4 people in each vehicle that's about 5000 cars a day. Traffic would still flow but would back up in towns,,, JC, Stonewall, Fredricksburg. HWY 281 North from JC to Marble Falls would take some of the traffic but I did'nt include folks coming north from San Antonio up 281 to get away. That number could increase these numbers by 25%. Most folks from SA would head west on I10 or south to the valley.

Day 4-7, these people would have run out of food and be low on gas, as they'd have been driving all over looking for food. They and their families are hungry. They would resort to stealing and assault but I doubt murder.
These numbers would be the highest and bulk of the exodus at about 5 times the numbers above. 25k to 500k, with the ending number of 25,000 cars per day on 290 (not counting SA traffic). Most of these would be during daylight hours as most of these people would be too stupid to travel at night.

Day 7-20, these people will be desperate, hungry and will resort to extreme acts of violence. Within the city they will have been exposed to rape/pillage/assault/murder. Whereas they want out at any cost, it is almost too late. Vehicles that had gas will have been stolen. Virtually the only way out will be some auto, but mostly on foot or some bicycle. The exodus number will be significantly less. Maybe 5% of the initial numbers.

Day 20+, this time frame from 20 forward should be about the same and you expect things not to change from this point on. Heavy and violent crime including thoughtless assault, theft, and murder. Gangs and groups will have organized in the city and will be planning raids on homesteads in an ever increasing radius from the city. These people will be the baddest of the bad. Anyone not in a gang or group will not be leaving the city, they blew it for any sort of bug-out.

These recommendations are for us rural residence. From day 0-20, you should reach out to as many neighbors as you can and organize your Bug-In security, whether you go to their location or they come to yours. Plans for perimeter security, food and water stores, and basically everything you would need for bug-in survival should be finalized and implemented. Food and water should have been taken care of prior to the event and preliminary neighbor reach out.

This threads purpose is to basically talk about the number, direction and timing of the zombie exodus. I'm creating a comprehensive survival binder/book for my homestead and family that would come here. The above, with your input and thoughts, will help me refine these numbers and make me aware of things I didn't think of. What are your thoughts?

[swamppapa]

City people will head for the nearest city , university students will head home, given your location, Hispanics from south of the border will head for Mexico.
Everyone else will find the nearest highway with some sort of flow and follow it.
In times of distress people want places and things they associate with comfort. Failing that their herd instinct will kick in.

[Florida Jean]

Swamppapa Generally agree, but will perhaps add some extra considerations.

City people will head for the nearest city -- unless the city they came from is also conceivable obtainable [say an extra 100-200 in another direction].

University students would prefer to head home -- but those with further out of state homes would head for a city and another university.

Hispanics from Mexico would head back to Mexico. I am not sure that those from central American countries would want to travel through Mexico again; particularly if Mexico is having difficulties also. They would head for another US city. American hispanics would head to their relatives places/areas often in the countryside -- and might be the first of the Hispanic groups to leave since they have families to go to.

People who rent would be more likely to leave than someone owning their home.

Business owners [small] will be less likely to leave -- or stay until they've been looted and burned out.

Mainline criminals would stay as long as they profitted from the situation.

Seniors would be less likely to leave [renting or owning].

If the disaster was localized in Austin -- then any family who has gotten themselves separated, regardless of inclination, planning, ability, will be concentrating on getting back together before contemplating leaving.

Also, feel the powers that be in the Austin governmental system might try to encourage people to stay [maybe even blocking road accesses etc.]. No one wants to lose their 'population property'. Think about Louisanna and New Orleans.

[Revmgt]

A guy named Joël Skousen wrote a good book named Strategic Relocation. It’s an excellent guide he put together from studying different events and how people reacted.
He has some interviews on YouTube if you want to check him out before you spend the cash for the book

[Fizbin]

I had overlooked the students at UT. I'd say the majority of them are "Electrolyte Lovers" and would just stay put. I really can't envision them wanting to leave their little snowflake cubbies. Note: If it were A&M I have no doubt many would leave though.

The elderly, most will stay put as they physically can't leave, regardless I feel their would be a very low percentage that would be a threat.

Hispanics, I really don't think they would try to head back across the boarder. But many have traveled in non traditional ways to get here so they would have the experience to travel out of town by maybe the same means.

If the local government in Austin would set roadblocks/checkpoints to keep the dumb masses in, that would be great, can only hope. I could only see the really ignorant saying/trying to get to SA or HOU.

[wldwsel]

Whichever it is, if they don't get out within 1-4 days, they'll be walking. The walkers won't get too far, say 50 miles. If the average 1/2 tank of gas is true, the drivers may drive little more than about 200 miles before they are walking, (heavy traffic jams would seriously lessen this number), at which point they might make 20 miles the first day, 10 the next, very little after that because they'll be starved, have dysentery and other gut borne disease from drinking ditch water, assuming they are not robbed, beaten, or killed.

I believe the "event horizon" for the "golden hoard" is about 250 mile radius of the starting spot, at the most, with a decreasing number of individual zombies as you get past around the 200 mile mark (gas range), going to single digits from 200-250. In many places this range could be far less.

Just my opinion.

WW

shoot straight - stay safe

[Fizbin]

Originally Posted by wldwsel

Whichever it is, if they don't get out within 1-4 days, they'll be walking. The walkers won't get too far, say 50 miles. If the average 1/2 tank of gas is true, the drivers may drive little more than about 200 miles before they are walking, (heavy traffic jams would seriously lessen this number), at which point they might make 20 miles the first day, 10 the next, very little after that because they'll be starved, have dysentery and other gut borne disease from drinking ditch water, assuming they are not robbed, beaten, or killed.

I believe the "event horizon" for the "golden hoard" is about 250 mile radius of the starting spot, at the most, with a decreasing number of individual zombies as you get past around the 200 mile mark (gas range), going to single digits from 200-250. In many places this range could be far less.

Just my opinion.

WW

shoot straight - stay safe

I think you're about right on that initial 250 miles, but should taper off pretty quick as the early days go by.

It makes me think,,, 250 miles,,, If you leave in the east, virtually every city is within 250 miles of another city! What a mess! I'm thinking DAL/FWT and down the 35 corridor are about the last major cities on the boarder of this line. Things thin out after that going west.

I used to live in Cincinnati and Columbus,,, there are SO MANY cities within 250 miles of each other there.

[gravedigger]

I believe you forgot to factor in the "KEEP OUT!" factor. The other towns and cities around Austin (The Santa Monica of Texas) would probably turn away anyone coming to their regions. They would have their own problems, and would not want an influx of people from another region. I think there would not be nearly as much exodus as you might imagine.

[Big_John]

Many, many will just stay put. Everything they own is in their house. Most of Austin will stay put.

Those with family and friends with property in the country, might head that way.

When food starts to run out, that's when it will start to get ugly. No way to predict and certainly no rules.

[Fizbin]

Originally Posted by Big_John

Many, many will just stay put. Everything they own is in their house. Most of Austin will stay put.

Those with family and friends with property in the country, might head that way.

When food starts to run out, that's when it will start to get ugly. No way to predict and certainly no rules.

What do you think the total % of exodus would be, and by what time frame?
I really think by the first 7 days 50% of the population will have tried to leave.
I'm very interested what other peoples thoughts are...

Another idea popped into my head, the season. Spring, summer and fall are the same here. Winter, Dec,Jan,Feb,,, Would this increase or decrease the exodus? I'm thinking it would decrease it as people don't like walking/biking in the cold.

[arleigh]

If you are out and about figure on being scrutinized .
Small towns don't like strangers , and that is now days, nothing to do with any thing else.
People in remote areas known for hunting are going to close their roads too. I would.
Put your self in their position and worry about some moron starting fires, and shooting game in your area.
Best to have property out where you expect to bug out to, and that you are befriended by the locals as a valuable asset and not just for your supplies but your extraordenary skills.
Few people have old world skills and actually know what they are doing.
But this kind of information is only revealed if you plan to be connected.
In some cases a doctor has been blackmailed into service , this you don't want.
If you are traveling by vehicle into the woods consider a chain saw for blocking, and unblocking the road and providing fire wood till the gas runs out .
Also ropes and chain for heavy work.

[STEEPOE]

Not sure many would be heading west - San Antonio, Houston and Dallas would be the logical destinations (among the other cities in the area). I'd say most would stay put. Not a diverse population by any stretch (over 75% white) and what surprised me in a simple search is home ownership is well below that national average (you own a home you stay) - guess that has to do with the population explosion (fast growing city in the US). Austin has a lot of poor people and it seems by choice as I've always called it the "Wanna Be Southwest Seattle" (15.4% poverty rate).

Don't think weather would impact much over winter but summer is a different story:
Month Low High
Jan 40.0°F 60.3°F
Feb 44.0°F 65.1°F
Mar 50.9°F 72.5°F
Apr 57.6°F 78.9°F
May 65.4°F 84.8°F
Jun 71.1°F 90.9°F
Jul 73.4°F 95.0°F
Aug 73.3°F 95.6°F
Sept 68.8°F 90.1°F
Oct 59.8°F 81.4°F
Nov 49.3°F 70.1°F
Dec 41.9°F 62.3°F

[Cuteandfuzzybunnies]

This all is very dependent on the type of disaster. A pandemic ? People are going to really try to stay put. A nuke dropped on Austin? Most are going to be dead so don’t worry about it. An EMP ? Well no gas accept what you have since the pumps don’t work , no cell or TV coms would be hard. But a lot of people will stay out longer than 4 days. The ones leaving that soon are likely prepped not zombies.
Civil unrest ? More People will try to get out of dodge but most will stay it will depend on their location inside town , access to transportation and what the TV is telling them to do.

I think people think the Golden Horde is a lot worse than it will be in most situations. People will fight over what they have in the city before they go out to try and fight people They don’t even know exist or where they are located 50 +miles away for the supplies they may or may not have. And driving around looking for stuff when you have little fuel doesn’t work. Neither does waking around when you have no food.

[Fizbin]

If it is a localized (to Austin only) then yes, maybe to the other big cities. Otherwise I'm still thinking to the locations and numbers above.

Whereas most will stay put, I still think at a maximum only 50% will leave at all. Most in the second waive (4-7 days) will be of degraded physical and mental capacity.

As for the low home ownership, I think most of those numbers are due to students at UT. Yes there are a ton of bums on the streets of Austin and that is due to political policies of that city. The last straw for us was when they created a "Hospital District" (hospital) exclusively for bums and it showed up as a line item on our property tax.

Driving and walking around when you have no food virtually won't work but they won't know that, nor will they have anything else to do. "There's no food here honey, go look for some".

You own a home so you'll stay,,, yes,,, I agree with that and that may account for the 50% of the population that I think will stay. Example: My dumb brother in Bradenton FL lives in a neighborhood and he says no matter what he is staying. He has NO preps, he says he is sure neighbors will share, and his one neighbor will help protect him and his family because he is former military. The answer to your next question,,, yes I have tried to tell him this won't come close to working and he needs a plan. But, this is a perfect example I'm sure of how most suburbanites think.