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![]() City people will head for the nearest city , university students will head home, given your location, Hispanics from south of the border will head for Mexico.
Everyone else will find the nearest highway with some sort of flow and follow it. In times of distress people want places and things they associate with comfort. Failing that their herd instinct will kick in. |
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![]() Swamppapa Generally agree, but will perhaps add some extra considerations.
City people will head for the nearest city -- unless the city they came from is also conceivable obtainable [say an extra 100-200 in another direction]. University students would prefer to head home -- but those with further out of state homes would head for a city and another university. Hispanics from Mexico would head back to Mexico. I am not sure that those from central American countries would want to travel through Mexico again; particularly if Mexico is having difficulties also. They would head for another US city. American hispanics would head to their relatives places/areas often in the countryside -- and might be the first of the Hispanic groups to leave since they have families to go to. People who rent would be more likely to leave than someone owning their home. Business owners [small] will be less likely to leave -- or stay until they've been looted and burned out. Mainline criminals would stay as long as they profitted from the situation. Seniors would be less likely to leave [renting or owning]. If the disaster was localized in Austin -- then any family who has gotten themselves separated, regardless of inclination, planning, ability, will be concentrating on getting back together before contemplating leaving. Also, feel the powers that be in the Austin governmental system might try to encourage people to stay [maybe even blocking road accesses etc.]. No one wants to lose their 'population property'. Think about Louisanna and New Orleans. |
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![]() A guy named Joël Skousen wrote a good book named Strategic Relocation. It’s an excellent guide he put together from studying different events and how people reacted.
He has some interviews on YouTube if you want to check him out before you spend the cash for the book |
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![]() I had overlooked the students at UT. I'd say the majority of them are "Electrolyte Lovers" and would just stay put. I really can't envision them wanting to leave their little snowflake cubbies. Note: If it were A&M I have no doubt many would leave though.
The elderly, most will stay put as they physically can't leave, regardless I feel their would be a very low percentage that would be a threat. Hispanics, I really don't think they would try to head back across the boarder. But many have traveled in non traditional ways to get here so they would have the experience to travel out of town by maybe the same means. If the local government in Austin would set roadblocks/checkpoints to keep the dumb masses in, that would be great, can only hope. I could only see the really ignorant saying/trying to get to SA or HOU.
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"A man has got to know his limitations" ~Dirty Harry |
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![]() Whichever it is, if they don't get out within 1-4 days, they'll be walking. The walkers won't get too far, say 50 miles. If the average 1/2 tank of gas is true, the drivers may drive little more than about 200 miles before they are walking, (heavy traffic jams would seriously lessen this number), at which point they might make 20 miles the first day, 10 the next, very little after that because they'll be starved, have dysentery and other gut borne disease from drinking ditch water, assuming they are not robbed, beaten, or killed.
I believe the "event horizon" for the "golden hoard" is about 250 mile radius of the starting spot, at the most, with a decreasing number of individual zombies as you get past around the 200 mile mark (gas range), going to single digits from 200-250. In many places this range could be far less. Just my opinion. WW shoot straight - stay safe |
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It makes me think,,, 250 miles,,, If you leave in the east, virtually every city is within 250 miles of another city! What a mess! I'm thinking DAL/FWT and down the 35 corridor are about the last major cities on the boarder of this line. Things thin out after that going west. I used to live in Cincinnati and Columbus,,, there are SO MANY cities within 250 miles of each other there.
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![]() I believe you forgot to factor in the "KEEP OUT!" factor. The other towns and cities around Austin (The Santa Monica of Texas) would probably turn away anyone coming to their regions. They would have their own problems, and would not want an influx of people from another region. I think there would not be nearly as much exodus as you might imagine.
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![]() Many, many will just stay put. Everything they own is in their house. Most of Austin will stay put.
Those with family and friends with property in the country, might head that way. When food starts to run out, that's when it will start to get ugly. No way to predict and certainly no rules. |
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I really think by the first 7 days 50% of the population will have tried to leave. I'm very interested what other peoples thoughts are... Another idea popped into my head, the season. Spring, summer and fall are the same here. Winter, Dec,Jan,Feb,,, Would this increase or decrease the exodus? I'm thinking it would decrease it as people don't like walking/biking in the cold.
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![]() If you are out and about figure on being scrutinized .
Small towns don't like strangers , and that is now days, nothing to do with any thing else. People in remote areas known for hunting are going to close their roads too. I would. Put your self in their position and worry about some moron starting fires, and shooting game in your area. Best to have property out where you expect to bug out to, and that you are befriended by the locals as a valuable asset and not just for your supplies but your extraordenary skills. Few people have old world skills and actually know what they are doing. But this kind of information is only revealed if you plan to be connected. In some cases a doctor has been blackmailed into service , this you don't want. If you are traveling by vehicle into the woods consider a chain saw for blocking, and unblocking the road and providing fire wood till the gas runs out . Also ropes and chain for heavy work. |
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![]() Not sure many would be heading west - San Antonio, Houston and Dallas would be the logical destinations (among the other cities in the area). I'd say most would stay put. Not a diverse population by any stretch (over 75% white) and what surprised me in a simple search is home ownership is well below that national average (you own a home you stay) - guess that has to do with the population explosion (fast growing city in the US). Austin has a lot of poor people and it seems by choice as I've always called it the "Wanna Be Southwest Seattle" (15.4% poverty rate).
Don't think weather would impact much over winter but summer is a different story: Month Low High Jan 40.0°F 60.3°F Feb 44.0°F 65.1°F Mar 50.9°F 72.5°F Apr 57.6°F 78.9°F May 65.4°F 84.8°F Jun 71.1°F 90.9°F Jul 73.4°F 95.0°F Aug 73.3°F 95.6°F Sept 68.8°F 90.1°F Oct 59.8°F 81.4°F Nov 49.3°F 70.1°F Dec 41.9°F 62.3°F |
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![]() This all is very dependent on the type of disaster. A pandemic ? People are going to really try to stay put. A nuke dropped on Austin? Most are going to be dead so don’t worry about it. An EMP ? Well no gas accept what you have since the pumps don’t work , no cell or TV coms would be hard. But a lot of people will stay out longer than 4 days. The ones leaving that soon are likely prepped not zombies.
Civil unrest ? More People will try to get out of dodge but most will stay it will depend on their location inside town , access to transportation and what the TV is telling them to do. I think people think the Golden Horde is a lot worse than it will be in most situations. People will fight over what they have in the city before they go out to try and fight people They don’t even know exist or where they are located 50 +miles away for the supplies they may or may not have. And driving around looking for stuff when you have little fuel doesn’t work. Neither does waking around when you have no food. |
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![]() If it is a localized (to Austin only) then yes, maybe to the other big cities. Otherwise I'm still thinking to the locations and numbers above.
Whereas most will stay put, I still think at a maximum only 50% will leave at all. Most in the second waive (4-7 days) will be of degraded physical and mental capacity. As for the low home ownership, I think most of those numbers are due to students at UT. Yes there are a ton of bums on the streets of Austin and that is due to political policies of that city. The last straw for us was when they created a "Hospital District" (hospital) exclusively for bums and it showed up as a line item on our property tax. Driving and walking around when you have no food virtually won't work but they won't know that, nor will they have anything else to do. "There's no food here honey, go look for some". You own a home so you'll stay,,, yes,,, I agree with that and that may account for the 50% of the population that I think will stay. Example: My dumb brother in Bradenton FL lives in a neighborhood and he says no matter what he is staying. He has NO preps, he says he is sure neighbors will share, and his one neighbor will help protect him and his family because he is former military. The answer to your next question,,, yes I have tried to tell him this won't come close to working and he needs a plan. But, this is a perfect example I'm sure of how most suburbanites think.
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