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Old 02-25-2020, 05:36 PM
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Default Mortality Rate & Psychology of Doom



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Heard today on the radio a slight uptick in the mortality rate of the corona virus. A few weeks ago, I heard it was 2% but now it is being reported as 2.5%, affecting the already immune-compromised. How does this compare to the flu?

According to the CDC, since 2010 the number infected to dead is an oddly large range. 9.3 - 45M infected with only 12 - 61K died. This translates to a mortality rate of 0.03-0.6%. This means the cornovirus is nearly 100x more deadly than the common flu. 80,000 American died of flu in 2017. Could this translate to 8M Americans dead this year from the Coronavirus?

While a mortality rate of 2.5% sounds low, if every American (330M) got it, only 8M would die. Wait a minute. How could these 2 numbers be the same? According to the CDC, as little as only 93K even get the flu. My guess is far less will get the Coronavirus. According to this CDC article from 1 month ago, 5 Americans have it. 5. 2.5% of 5 compared to the attention this is getting makes one wonder about the psychology of doom. I think I need to worry more about driving in icy condition over the next few days. Am I missing something?
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Old 02-25-2020, 05:42 PM
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Quote:
Am I missing something?
Yes.

America is not its own planet.

If Corona became as widespread as the flu in OTHER COUNTRIES secondary effects would lead to a massive great depression or worse style collapse in this country....without a single new case here.

Which, BTW, would be extraordinarily unlikely to be the case if it really became that widespread.

Quote:
According to this CDC article from 1 month ago,
This is a fast moving emerging situation. Two months ago it didn't even exist.

News from a month ago is completely irrelevant. Laughably so.

Currently there are 50+ cases here.

The only ones of interest are the 14 that came here naturally. The balance are all brought here from the infected cruise ship and are in quarantine.

Quote:
Could this translate to 8M Americans dead this year from the Coronavirus?
Yes. Yes it could.
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Old 02-25-2020, 05:56 PM
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The article from 1 month ago is the latest I could find. Do you have a link that reports there are 50+ Americans infected?
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Old 02-25-2020, 06:08 PM
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https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

Currently, US has 53 confirmed cases.
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Old 02-25-2020, 06:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterEnergy View Post
The article from 1 month ago is the latest I could find. Do you have a link that reports there are 50+ Americans infected?
Per CDC

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html

14 + 36 from Diamond princess = 50.


As a bonusóThe CDC will not test anyone who hasnít traveled to China or been exposed to a confirmed Covid case.

And the test kits that they have donít work most of the time (like 90% of the time) and new kits arenít coming out until mid-March. Itís so bad, Hawaii is trying to get test kits from Japan.

Tests that donít work most of the time + ridiculously limited and outdated testing guidelines = No US Covid19 cases

Magic!

Do yourself a favor and spend a bit of time scrolling through this guyís twitter feed.


https://mobile.twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1232161659818512384


https://mobile.twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1232174096609370113

https://mobile.twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1232129529252077568
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Old 02-25-2020, 06:22 PM
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here's link to the CDC website that's tracking the Officially Confirmed cases..

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

although their official number of confirmed on the site adds up to 53, several reports are out that it's really 58.. what should be concerning is that as of today ONLY 426 tests have been conducted... and yep, i know the test's that were sent out by the CDC were seriously flawed and only 3 states out of 50 have been (reportedly) using them which badly skews the numbers...

as a side note, it was reported by NTD news that 1 woman was tested 8 times before testing positive.. that's at the 19:53 mark


Last edited by nextup; 02-25-2020 at 06:31 PM.. Reason: added link to vid
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Old 02-25-2020, 06:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterEnergy View Post
Am I missing something?
Yes, they LIE!

Don't feel bad, they play games with the numbers worse then used car dealerships.

For example, Italy had a 45% single day increase in cases.

I'm going to assume that it doubles every day, just for more simple math.

Day 1: 2
Day 2: 4
Day 3: 8
Day 4: 16
Day 5: 32
Day 6: 64
Day 7:128

After 6 days there are 190 cases.
After 7 days there are 254 cases.

What happens if it takes 4 days for the the average person to no longer be considered "sick"? If we start with the totals up to Day 4 then there are only 30 cases for the equation.

Assume 10 people are now dead on Day 7. Which numbers do we put into the equation? At this point, it's a trick question. But, again, to keep it simple, it's a simple bug and you either fly or die on day 4.

The equation would be:
Deaths divided by Cases defined by avoiding the trick question=
10/30=~33%
That's a scary number.

How about:
Deaths divided by Total Cases=
10/254=~4%

How many people are dead on Day 8?
85
Highlight above line for answer.
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Old 02-25-2020, 06:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marjorie View Post
...
Currently, US has 53 confirmed cases.
It very much seems that may be a lie.

Check my post:
CDC vs HHS vs Media

...forgot how to link to it...
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Old 02-25-2020, 06:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SAHMofTwins View Post
Per CDC

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html

14 + 36 from Diamond princess = 50.


As a bonusóThe CDC will not test anyone who hasnít traveled to China or been exposed to a confirmed Covid case.
That's a great way to keep the number of cases down.
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Old 02-25-2020, 06:53 PM
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Originally Posted by SAHMofTwins View Post
...As a bonusóThe CDC will not test anyone who hasnít traveled to China or been exposed to a confirmed Covid case...
Can you provide a direct link with an official quote confirming this?
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Old 02-25-2020, 06:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterEnergy View Post
Heard today on the radio a slight uptick in the mortality rate of the corona virus. A few weeks ago, I heard it was 2% but now it is being reported as 2.5%, affecting the already immune-compromised. How does this compare to the flu?



According to the CDC, since 2010 the number infected to dead is an oddly large range. 9.3 - 45M infected with only 12 - 61K died. This translates to a mortality rate of 0.03-0.6%. This means the cornovirus is nearly 100x more deadly than the common flu. 80,000 American died of flu in 2017. Could this translate to 8M Americans dead this year from the Coronavirus?



While a mortality rate of 2.5% sounds low, if every American (330M) got it, only 8M would die. Wait a minute. How could these 2 numbers be the same? According to the CDC, as little as only 93K even get the flu. My guess is far less will get the Coronavirus. According to this CDC article from 1 month ago, 5 Americans have it. 5. 2.5% of 5 compared to the attention this is getting makes one wonder about the psychology of doom. I think I need to worry more about driving in icy condition over the next few days. Am I missing something?
I think what might be missing is the R0.
This appears to be more infectious than flu.

Many posts on the virus thread discussing R0.

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk
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Old 02-25-2020, 07:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterEnergy View Post
Heard today on the radio a slight uptick in the mortality rate of the corona virus. A few weeks ago, I heard it was 2% but now it is being reported as 2.5%, affecting the already immune-compromised. How does this compare to the flu?

According to the CDC, since 2010 the number infected to dead is an oddly large range. 9.3 - 45M infected with only 12 - 61K died. This translates to a mortality rate of 0.03-0.6%. This means the cornovirus is nearly 100x more deadly than the common flu. 80,000 American died of flu in 2017. Could this translate to 8M Americans dead this year from the Coronavirus?

While a mortality rate of 2.5% sounds low, if every American (330M) got it, only 8M would die. Wait a minute. How could these 2 numbers be the same? According to the CDC, as little as only 93K even get the flu. My guess is far less will get the Coronavirus. According to this CDC article from 1 month ago, 5 Americans have it. 5. 2.5% of 5 compared to the attention this is getting makes one wonder about the psychology of doom. I think I need to worry more about driving in icy condition over the next few days. Am I missing something?
You are absolutely right - there is nothing for you to worry about and no reason to change your normal behavior.

This is just one of those natural selection adjustments the earth has occasionally.

But those who don't believe in natural selection can't be harmed by it.

But do let us know if you get sick.....
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Old 02-25-2020, 07:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sprig View Post
Can you provide a direct link with an official quote confirming this?
that information was posted a week or so ago in the Chinese Virus thread along with several different links when it was first reported that they would be bringing back the people from the cruise ship...
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Old 02-25-2020, 07:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterEnergy View Post
That's a great way to keep the number of cases down.

Indeed.

I donít think that theyíre being malevolent.

The logical reason for why is to let people in on it slowly, like the proverbial frog in a pot of slowly heating water.

They canít do much to prevent Covid19, but they can try to prevent panic and civil/economic fallout by giving people time to slowly, calmly prepare.
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Old 02-25-2020, 07:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sprig View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by SAHMofTwins View Post
...As a bonus—The CDC will not test anyone who hasn’t traveled to China or been exposed to a confirmed Covid case...
Can you provide a direct link with an official quote confirming this?

Link to current CDC patient assessment guidelines.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...flowchart.html


TX department of health notes on this page that samples will not be tested without prior approval. (In the red box in the middle of the page)

https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/#healthprof

This link is to a flowchart that shows what’s required at the local and state level (per CDC guidance) before a sample is tested.

https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/d...gAlgorithm.pdf
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Old 02-25-2020, 08:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SAHMofTwins View Post
Link to current CDC patient assessment guidelines.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...flowchart.html


TX department of health notes on this page that samples will not be tested without prior approval. (In the red box in the middle of the page)

https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/#healthprof

This link is to a flowchart that shows whatís required at the local and state level (per CDC guidance) before a sample is tested.

https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/d...gAlgorithm.pdf
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the left side in blue of the picture i attached give the criteria for determining who gets tested for the virus.. i expect that they'll be changing it soon.. at least hope so once they get tests that are more reliable than what they have now..
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Old 02-25-2020, 08:15 PM
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I crunched the numbers a few hours ago. No doubt it's changed a little, but this is close.


Mortality by nation (with available data at the moment)

Iran 16.8%
China 3.4%
Italy 3.4%
Hong Kong 2.3%
Japan 0.6%
US 0%

*Diamond Princess Cruise 0.6%

Mortality will vary based on multiple variables, but access to care and living conditions typically tops the list. 3rd world ****holes will have a much higher death rate than developed nations. That said, even 1% would be an enormous death toll if infection becomes widespread.

This one is difficult to predict. Killing the host isn't advantageous to pathogens. Ebola burns itself out. COVID-19 isn't overwhelmingly fatal, that's part of what makes it dangerous. Also of concern is there's no long term immunity after infection. You can survive infection just to be infected again.

No it doesn't rank high with other threats, but it should be taken seriously to keep it that way. Of course some will see this as opportunity. The DNC is already trying to use fears to fuel their push for universal healthcare and whoever their puppet is for the election.
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Old 02-26-2020, 12:58 AM
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Here’s an example of what we’re talking about.

ER doc has patient show up with flulike symptoms and recent travel to Northern Italy.

Flu test negative.

Turned down for Covid test.

Doctors are begging to test their patients!

https://mobile.twitter.com/DrEricDin...48504477872128
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Old 02-26-2020, 01:29 AM
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heres a great article on the psychology behind this coronavirus from a reputable source as well...


https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...073-0/fulltext
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Old 02-26-2020, 07:49 AM
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I've read that the mortality rate is like 2 or 3%. It will be fatal to the weak and elderly more than anyone else.

What are the stats on the good old flu deaths for the past few years? I just read one for 2019, 8.6 in 100k, which is .826% mortality. So the new virus is not much worse. Cases for the 2019 season were 3.7 million.

But it is enough to incite panic in a great number of people around the world. Coincidently the stock markets have taken a dump, China may have shot themselves in the foot.. strongly suggested that they rolled out the virus to quell the Hong Kong uprising and also in China itself.

Trump was quick to halt flights from China, now India has a foot in the door as a major player in world markets and especially with the US.
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