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Old 03-29-2020, 09:43 PM
txprep txprep is offline
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Originally Posted by leadcounsel View Post
The Diamond Princess gives us a 'best case' scenario of a quarantined population with limited spread, immediate testing and isolation attempts, and excellent medical care among an affluent population (and presumably healthier than average) on a sanitary and clean settings with presumably lots of open fresh moving sea air and warm weather.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/...e3.htm#T1_down


Of the ~3711 size population, about 712 were infected. Infection rate: 19%.
When the population was tested, about 1/2 of the 712 testing positive were asymptomatic. That means, spreading without knowing it or symptoms. Scary indeed.

So far, about 587 have recovered, 11 died, and 125 still unknown. If we divide (dead) / (dead + recovered) = 11/598 = 2% fatal. We can expect probably a few more deaths from those still fighting the illness. Similar to 1918 flu death %.

So 2% fatal, among an affluent population quickly screened and with access to presumably good healthcare measures without delay.

When it attacks the poor, elderly, weak, and those in crowded filthy areas who don't have healthcare it's going to rip thru populations with a vengence.
I dont use the diamond princess for infection rate as they had a reasonable system to lock people down in quarantine. Real infection rates will be more like 50%+

The population had many older people.Of the 712 that were infected over half were over 60. There were 1000 passengers 70-79

Table 2 of this article has the age distribution of cases
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...773v2.full.pdf

The full health care death rate rate is likely below the diamond princess number (1.4%) because the age of the passengers skews so old. I agree that when health care falls apart due to being flooded in the US, the rate will jump. Estimates are that the death rate goes up to 5-10% of total infected. This is what Im trying to explain to peterenergy.
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Old 03-30-2020, 06:41 AM
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Originally Posted by txprep View Post
the 1% death rate is of all infected, the increase to a 5-10% death rate is of all infected.
Contradiction much? To expose the false god of worshipping at the alter of medical science, let's compare a tale of 3 causes of death:
  1. Everyone's favorite comparison to C-virus, the flu: 10's per 100K
  2. C-virus (excluding high risk groups): 1%
  3. Pancreatic Cancer: 98%
All of these death rates are WITH "adequate medical care." Yet, the death rates are not the same. What explains this phenomena? The inherent mortality rate of the underlying illness. Some call people who don't die from these illnesses as having a natural immunity. This is the rational baseline of analysis.

Regarding the hyperbolic, Chicken Little, "we are all gonna die" dread of secondary affects, like supposing an overwhelmed healthcare system, you are now comparing apples to oranges. The social impact of continuing the quarantine into August for low risk groups, through economic collapse, people dying of starvation is the WORST CASE secondary affect, a cure worse than the Chinese virus disease. To prevent possible horrible deaths in the future, we should not all commit suicide now.

Consider some relevant facts as of today:
  • Worldwide: 34.7K deaths/725K infected = 4.7% (includes high risk groups)
  • US: 2.5K deaths/143K infected = 1.7% (includes high risk groups)
  • Ohio: 29/1653 = 1.7% (includes high risk groups)
  • Ohio: Hospital Bed Usage = 40% (includes annual peak due to flu)
  • The vast majority (>90%) of those who get C-virus will not require hospitalization.
Going back to worshipping the false god of medical science, the secondary affects considered are only the negative ones. Besides the phenomena of the more infected the lower the mortality rate, there is the emergence of a cure and vaccines.

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Old 03-30-2020, 09:56 AM
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We are ALL know how we are going to die, its just a matter in what order.
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Old 03-30-2020, 10:48 AM
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What do either of you win if 2 years from now one of you is right?
Bragging rights, same as with everything else. Saying I told you so never gets old.

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Old 03-30-2020, 05:02 PM
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I might have missed somewhere in this thread but I saw an interesting assertion

Supposedly the CCP releases quarterly numbers through their ministry of infrastructure and communication telling how many cellphone subscriptions exist in the country, nearly every chinese person has one, they are almost like a government ID card, they use it to keep track of the population.

well, the number declined by 21 million since the last quarterly update.

suddenly the 80,000 infected and 3,500 dead number seems....a little off. even if only 10% of those declined phone subs were covid-19 deaths....it would mean they were underreported by a factor of 500 or more
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Old 03-30-2020, 05:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by merlinfire View Post
I might have missed somewhere in this thread but I saw an interesting assertion

Supposedly the CCP releases quarterly numbers through their ministry of infrastructure and communication telling how many cellphone subscriptions exist in the country, nearly every chinese person has one, they are almost like a government ID card, they use it to keep track of the population.

well, the number declined by 21 million since the last quarterly update.

suddenly the 80,000 infected and 3,500 dead number seems....a little off. even if only 10% of those declined phone subs were covid-19 deaths....it would mean they were underreported by a factor of 500 or more
Yes, been brought up a few times. It's mostly telecom's themselves revealing the numbers though. Waiting for china mobile to release it's monthy numbers soon. You can catch them on their own site: https://www.chinamobileltd.com/en/ir...scroll2title=1
Haven't found anything on the other 2 telecom provider's site, but i also don't understand chinese, so can't look far
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Old 03-31-2020, 12:24 AM
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Exclamation Whoops!

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

Total Deaths: 3,170

Total Recovered: 5,896

= 9,066 known cases.

= 35% Fatality Rate.

Last edited by Sprig; 03-31-2020 at 12:24 AM.. Reason: kant spill
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Old 03-31-2020, 12:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Sprig View Post
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

Total Deaths: 3,170

Total Recovered: 5,896

= 9,066 known cases.

= 35% Fatality Rate.

Where??????????
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Old 03-31-2020, 12:37 AM
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The forum has been arguing over that equation for weeks. To me it makes sense as the most accurate way to see the death / survival percentages as they evolve.
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Old 03-31-2020, 12:43 AM
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Where??????????
Isn't this fun?

Numbers were for the United States. I did a screen grab, but I don't have an easy host to post on this forum.
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Old 03-31-2020, 12:51 AM
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The forum has been arguing over that equation for weeks. To me it makes sense as the most accurate way to see the death / survival percentages as they evolve.
There are a few other smart people on the forum that are posting the same exact equation as I have just posted.

One does need to understand basic algebra to work with the numbers.

A 35% CFR in the US, at this point in time, is not unreasonable. The first US numbers came out of the Diamond Princess cruise ship and Life Care Center in WA state.
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Old 03-31-2020, 12:53 AM
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Originally Posted by Sprig View Post
Isn't this fun?

Numbers were for the United States. I did a screen grab, but I don't have an easy host to post on this forum.
ok, I see the Number of Deaths and the Number of Recovered but I have no idea where you are getting the 9,066 known cases. The GIS Map says that there is 164,603 confirmed cases for the U.S. so I am a little lost here.
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Old 03-31-2020, 01:04 AM
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ok, I see the Number of Deaths and the Number of Recovered but I have no idea where you are getting the 9,066 known cases. The GIS Map says that there is 164,603 confirmed cases for the U.S. so I am a little lost here.
and here is a screenshot I just got so you can show the numbers for those that are asking.

Click image for larger version

Name:	Screenshot_2020-03-31 Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV).jpg
Views:	6
Size:	46.7 KB
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Old 03-31-2020, 01:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ghost863 View Post
ok, I see the Number of Deaths and the Number of Recovered but I have no idea where you are getting the 9,066 known cases. The GIS Map says that there is 164,603 confirmed cases for the U.S. so I am a little lost here.
The formula would be (dead) / (dead + recovered aka total resolved cases)

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

It would currently be 3200 dead divided by 9200 (dead + recovered)

Or about 35% fatal.

This to me is the best gauge of if someone gets it to the severity of being tested and recorded, you're about 1/3rd likely to die.

Yes, there's a huge % not being tested because they have light symptoms or are asymptomatic. We (the world) does not have enough tests to spare for everyone.

Yes there's also dead and recovered that will not be tested due to lack of tests, ambition, willpower, ability, etc.

There are a LOT of unknowns.

So we have to look at the knowns. Tests are given for whatever reasons, mainly but not exclusively to the severe people, and when identified, about 2/3rd of them live and 1/3rd die.

Again, I agree, lots of untested living presently ill, recovered, and dead for which we will not know.
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Old 03-31-2020, 01:13 AM
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...so I am a little lost here.
It takes a few days for a person to think they might be sick.

It takes a few days for a person that is sick to test positive to being sick.

It takes a few days for a person that tested know as being sick to either die or recover.

Someone with ALL the real data can extrapolate the averages; and, at the end of a year, can publish the final results.

The problem now is, that we don't have a time machine to know the numbers at the end of the year. And, we don't know if some form of treatment will be discovered to make it appear that this was a nothing burger to further generations.

Bottom line, the US numbers are looking a lot more like Italy's numbers a week ago.
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Old 03-31-2020, 01:15 AM
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How would these predictions change if it were found this virus were already here stateside since Thanksgiving?

Just a wild theory based on an observation.

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Old 03-31-2020, 01:15 AM
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Originally Posted by leadcounsel View Post
The formula would be (dead) / (dead + recovered aka total resolved cases)

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

It would currently be 3200 dead divided by 9200 (dead + recovered)

Or about 35% fatal.

This to me is the best gauge of if someone gets it to the severity of being tested and recorded, you're about 1/3rd likely to die.

Yes, there's a huge % not being tested because they have light symptoms or are asymptomatic. We (the world) does not have enough tests to spare for everyone.

Yes there's also dead and recovered that will not be tested due to lack of tests, ambition, willpower, ability, etc.

There are a LOT of unknowns.

So we have to look at the knowns. Tests are given for whatever reasons, mainly but not exclusively to the severe people, and when identified, about 2/3rd of them live and 1/3rd die.

Again, I agree, lots of untested living presently ill, recovered, and dead for which we will not know.
ok, Thanks for explaining that, I just couldn't figure out where he got the 9200 and did not think to do the math, I was just looking at the numbers being presented. Now I feel like an idiot
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Old 03-31-2020, 01:21 AM
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How would these predictions change if it were found this virus were already here stateside since Thanksgiving?

Just a wild theory based on an observation.

Sent from my SM-T350 using Tapatalk
when was the first case to have been reported in China? You could be right about this CS but if it was not wide spread in China at the time, the likely hood of that being a possibility is not very good. The reason for my claim is because when most Americans travel to China, They do not go to little provinces but usually go to places like Hong Kong or Beijing. Occasionally though some will wander out to go see the Great Wall but I am not sure which Province that is located in that they get to visit it.
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Old 03-31-2020, 01:23 AM
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Yup, no problem.

The calming thing is that maybe millions have it and have no severe symptoms at all.

The terrifying thing is if you're showing high fever, trouble breathing, and other symptoms and you think you have it, and go get tested positive, in the US you have a poor chance of surviving. Same with several other 1st world nations.
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Old 03-31-2020, 01:23 AM
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...Or about 35% fatal...
Using a six(6) cylinder revolver, the chances of death on a single spin of Russian Roulette is only about 17%.
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