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Old 05-18-2020, 04:35 PM
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Default All-cause mortality

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Does anyone have a reasonable source for all-cause mortality in 2020?

I feel like both sides are lying about the COVID-19 death numbers, let alone the absence of a real definition of what a COVID-19 death is.

But total number of deaths would be a lot more difficult to lie about, IMO. If I had a good source, I could compare to numbers in recent years.

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Old 05-18-2020, 11:06 PM
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Total deaths by month as compared to in the past would be good. I also haven't been able to find what I think is a good trusted source for this. There's been some stories I've seen specific to some areas, like NYC:

but even these leave some questions I'm not sure we'll ever have answered. It does seem pretty clear - to me anyway - that the COIVD thing is taking out a crap ton of people. But for overall numbers, it's somewhat challenging because there's probably, (again, my opinion), some people dying because they're staying out of the healthcare system and should be in it. (cardiacs, other issues.) Still, that should be a relatively small number. (Though I think that will rise over time.)

I know in the metro NYC area some COIVD counts are elevated as they're tagging a lot of deaths COVID related if the person is positive for COVID, even if the main cause of death was really something else. Why? Probably because the hospital gets $13K if COIVD is listed as the main reason. Then again, some COVID deaths are likely underreported because they're happening at home and maybe not getting classified as such. So call that a wash.

My personal source for this is some of my own experience on ambulance calls as a volunteer, and discussions with friends/colleagues in local hospitals that have been sending more dead folks out the back door in days then they had in the past year. Though this seems to have drastically eased up in the past week. So I have no idea what the real numbers are, and I agree it's probably hard to find a trustworthy source just yet.

Here's another story that seems to indicate thousands more died in NYC - on average - than in the past for some periods in April. Seems pretty clear from COVID. But I don't think you're going to get good stats anytime soon. This stuff just doesn't seem to be reported very well on a frequent basis as there's probably never really been a compelling reason to need to.
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Old 05-19-2020, 12:32 AM
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Total numbers are up, even subtracting known corona deaths, which suggest corona is being undercounted.

My own first hand experience on our ambulance and our hospitals here is total death is greatly down from normal, no doubt because lockdown living is much safer than 'normal life' in rural areas where working yourself to death is common.

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Old 05-19-2020, 12:46 AM
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I can find that NYS averages about 420 deaths per day. About 2.8 million across the US every year which is about 7,700 a day in the US. According to the site below there have already been over 1 million deaths in the US this year not counting this virus.
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Old 05-19-2020, 01:06 AM
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There is no way to know the true COVID19 death numbers because the CDC guidelines have consistently had built-in ambiguity....

Guidance for Certifying COVID-19 Deaths

March 4,

2020 NCHS is receiving questions about how deaths involving the new coronavirus strain should be reported on death certificates. We are working on formal guidance to certifiers to be published as soon as possible. In the meantime, to address the immediate need, here is some basic information that can be shared in advance of the more formal and detailed guidance. It is important to emphasize that Coronavirus Disease 2019 or COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death. Other terminology, e.g., SARS-CoV-2, can be used as long as it is clear that it indicates the 2019 coronavirus strain, but we would prefer use of WHO’s standard terminology, e.g., COVID-19. Specification of the causal pathway leading to death in Part I of the certificate is also important. For example, in cases when COVID-19 causes pneumonia and fatal respiratory distress, both pneumonia and respiratory distress should be included along with COVID-19 in Part I. Certifiers should include as much detail as possible based on their knowledge of the case, medical records, laboratory testing, etc. If the decedent had other chronic conditions such as COPD or asthma that may have also contributed, these conditions can be reported in Part II.

COVID-19 Alert No. 2

March 24, 2020

New ICD code introduced for COVID-19 deaths

Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test?

COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death.

Even their influenza estimates includes pneumonia in its count....
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Old 05-19-2020, 09:41 AM
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My opinion? Take average deaths from all other causes for the last 20 years per month we have been afflicted with the chi-vi. Heart failure stroke cancer etc. Those people on average would have died anyway.
Then Take all total deaths since chi vi for those months (jan feb mar apr may) and subtract your average for those months from any other causes .
That increase is your chi-vi death number.
Several doctors have come forward the death toll is significantly lower due to the fact "we didn't have time to definitely determine the cause of death so we just put Covid-19"
Also there is the federal aid for those states hardest hit with the chi-vi, and this would induce forther inflation of the cause of death skewed by simple corruptiuon.
The part that is interesting is we are a big country with LOTS of people We should be looking at death per thousand and not total number of deaths from chi-vi, If you want an apples to apples comparison to another country you need to do this with a state with a comparible demographic and population density, like Florida vs Italy
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