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Old 05-14-2020, 04:56 PM
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As time goes on, it will become clear which tactics for stamping out SARS-CoV-2 works, and what does not work.

This thread could provide a nice snapshot of successful efforts made around the globe to control this nasty virus.

Please post your finds!

I would like for this thread to be "just the facts, ma'am" and not devolve into opinions and discussions, which in this case, often becomes hot and messy.

I will delete or move discussions to the Coronavirus Chat - speak your mind thread: https://www.survivalistboards.com/sh...d.php?t=941620
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Old 05-14-2020, 04:58 PM
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A brief summary of why New Zealand is having success stamping out Covid-19

https://twitter.com/i/status/1260568774329225217
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Old 05-14-2020, 05:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrizzlyetteAdams View Post
As time goes on, it will become clear which tactics for stamping out SARS-CoV-2 works, and what does not work.

This thread could provide a nice snapshot of efforts made around the globe to control this nasty virus.

Please post your finds!

I would like for this thread to be "just the facts, ma'am" and not devolve into opinions and discussions, which in this case, often becomes hot and messy.

I will delete or move discussions to the Coronavirus Chat - speak your mind thread: https://www.survivalistboards.com/sh...d.php?t=941620
Well, since this is still in progress I would say we have ONLY opinions at this point. I could talk a lot about what I THINK works or what worked with other viruses but that would only by an opinion since so far, nothing has actually been proven to work, not even the things I support.
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Old 05-14-2020, 06:38 PM
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I think it is fair to say sending active and known cases into nursing homes was not a strategy the either worked, or anyone with the mildest ability to generate any thought at all, would have expected to be anything but a gross and negligent strategy or action.

I don't have a link, and this is my opinion, but I'm reasonably certain, this is broadly known and accepted. If we haven't stopped doing this, it might be an idea to consider.
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Old 05-14-2020, 06:40 PM
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The list of things we factually know did not work is pretty large...
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Old 05-14-2020, 06:43 PM
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Taiwan

440 cases, 7 deaths

Just from a quick google search: https://www.dw.com/en/taiwan-coronavirus/a-52724523
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Old 05-14-2020, 07:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Aerindel View Post
Well, since this is still in progress I would say we have ONLY opinions at this point.

....

With all respect, I must say, No, suh 'taint so!

For example, in the main virus thread, we've been seeing a number of Southern Cross' ongoing posts that have been showing a stunningly low number of cases, deaths, and hospitalizations in New Zealand.

And finally, today's stats show:

Quote:
Originally Posted by SouthernCross View Post
New cases today (14 May) in New Zealand: 0

New deaths today in New Zealand: 0

People in hospital: 0


These stats show that something is definitely working. But what are they doing that other countries are not?

The short video I posted outlines how and why New Zealand's efforts are working.

Not an opinion, but what is obviously working.

This is the line of thought I hope this thread will have.
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Old 05-14-2020, 07:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrizzlyetteAdams View Post
As time goes on, it will become clear which tactics for stamping out SARS-CoV-2 works, and what does not work.

This thread could provide a nice snapshot of successful (and failed) efforts made around the globe to control this nasty virus.

Please post your finds!

I would like for this thread to be "just the facts, ma'am" and not devolve into opinions and discussions, which in this case, often becomes hot and messy.

I will delete or move discussions to the Coronavirus Chat - speak your mind thread: https://www.survivalistboards.com/sh...d.php?t=941620
It would appear the tactics that work are tremendous public awareness, massive testing, contact tracing, and quarantine, voluntary or not. The success stories all have all of those in overwhelming quantity; the failures do not.
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Old 05-14-2020, 07:24 PM
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It would appear the tactics that work are tremendous public awareness, massive testing, contact tracing, and quarantine, voluntary or not. The success stories all have all of those in overwhelming quantity; the failures do not.


Yes, and a thread full of links, graphs, etc. that clearly show tactics and measurable results would be a nice addition to this subforum.
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Old 05-15-2020, 01:57 AM
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Vietnam did a few things right: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52628283


NOTE: When it comes to reported numbers that we may find incredulous, we can look at any statistic with a jaundiced eye and pay more than the usual attention to what is happening on the streets. Cell phone cameras and a slew of social media outlets make it easy for citizens of any country to broadcast what is happening in their location...This way the world can get a bird's eye view of the truth of any country's statistics. (That's how we know China lied to the point of ridiculousness...)




Vietnam acted amazingly fast: By the time the country had its first case, their emergency plan was up and running.

Quote:
Vietnam enacted measures other countries would take months to move on, bringing in travel restrictions, closely monitoring and eventually closing the border with China and increasing health checks at borders and other vulnerable places.

Schools were closed for the Lunar New Year holiday at the end of January and remained closed until mid-May. A vast and labour intensive contact tracing operation got under way.

>snip<

Vietnam was sending everyone who entered the country - and anyone within the country who'd had contact with a confirmed case - to quarantine centres for 14 days.


>snip<

Everyone in quarantine was tested, sick or not, and he says it's clear that 40% of Vietnam's confirmed cases would have had no idea they had the virus had they not been tested.

>snip<

While Vietnam never had a total national lockdown, it swooped in on emerging clusters.

In February after a handful of cases in Son Loi, north of Hanoi, more than 10,000 people living in the surrounding area were sealed off. The same would happen to 11,000 people in the Ha Loi commune near the capital, and to the staff and patients of a hospital.

No-one would be allowed in or out until two weeks had passed with no confirmed cases.

>snip<

Even in a one-party state like Vietnam, you need to ensure the public is on board for such a sweeping strategy to work.

... the government did "a really good job of communicating to the public" why what it was doing was necessary.
Of course, Vietnam had a bit of experience with things like SARS and other pathogens, and most people knew it was do or die.
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Old 05-15-2020, 02:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrizzlyetteAdams View Post
With all respect, I must say, No, suh 'taint so!

For example, in the main virus thread, we've been seeing a number of Southern Cross' ongoing posts that have been showing a stunningly low number of cases, deaths, and hospitalizations in New Zealand.

And finally, today's stats show:




These stats show that something is definitely working. But what are they doing that other countries are not?

The short video I posted outlines how and why New Zealand's efforts are working.

Not an opinion, but what is obviously working.

This is the line of thought I hope this thread will have.
My opinion is that they are doing the right thing in this regard. But until its over, it still my opinion. For all I know six months from now we will be talking about what went horribly wrong in NZ after such a promising start and how despite all odds Sweden turned out to have the right idea.

I don't think that will happen...but thats just what I think.

My state closed down early, and we had very few cases and several days in the last couple weeks with no cases....but now we are opened up....so I'm not going to say 'it worked' just yet. History is full of false starts.
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Old 05-15-2020, 02:38 AM
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British Columbia, population 5,110,917 has one of the lowest transmission rates after a slow start of our government stumbling and bumbling and our health authority lying point blank telling us masks would do not good , when in fact they had negligently destroyed and not replaced mask and other emergency PPE inventories and thus manipulated the public to buy time to put some supply in place for essential workers . Enough of the populous have taken social distancing seriously , economically everyone has felt the hit of all non essential people staying home and our government doling out 850 million to the WHO which will likely never ever benefit our own populous last week is like another financial sting of the lash . I would say it is the PEOPLE really changing lifestyle to flatten the curve that have accomplished that. We have a large influx of Asian Canadians and they really took it seriously and set the example questioning poor practices and leading by example with practices like wearing masks and following protocals like calling ahead instead of wandering in to hospitals , I think none of our outbreaks could be attributed to early cases that came direct from China . Masks are finally catching on here and I hope people will continue to be careful and responsible and allow and support business to open back up .

Consider BC had direct flights and early transmission from China before Quebec. Quebec has almost 2 times our population .
British Columbia has had :

Confirmed
2,392
Recovered
1,885
Deaths
135

Whereas Quebec with almost but not quite double the population of BC at 8,537,674 people in 2020 :

Confirmed
40,724
Recovered
10,829
Deaths
3,351

Quebec has more politcal pull having 3 times the number of parliamentary seats and 8 times the federal funding of BC and it would be no surprise at all that they have had more support with equipment and manpower enabled through the government to handle the pandemic. So where BC has made the difference to successfully flatten the curve of transmission is in the self discipline of the population . Article here pretty much concludes , a lot comes down to the self discipline of the people once the government fails to limit travel etc.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canad...cid=spartanntp


Washington State to our south had similar early transmission and a like 2020 population of 5,322,000 would have differing government policies but in fact USA tightened its incoming flight policies much more effectively and earlier than BC but still Washington infections tell a far different story than our own experience :

Confirmed
17,773
Recovered
0
Deaths
983

I would summarize that Washington was one of the first states in crisis and though we had at least one transmission to BC from Washington , infact their crisis alerted our general public here to take heed more than the crisis in China did which I accredit to pushing our population to smarten up and jump to be more careful quicker than some other segments of the population . Though being more reactionary than proactive, our government has stepped up with financial support that will hobble generations to come , that in the meantime has enabled people to stay home without as much struggle as poorer countries will face , and has eventually put better protocals in place such as more testing of the general populace and tracing of outbreaks ( not on top of community transmission though) .
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Old 05-15-2020, 03:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Aerindel View Post
My opinion is that they are doing the right thing in this regard. But until its over, it still my opinion. For all I know six months from now we will be talking about what went horribly wrong in NZ after such a promising start and how despite all odds Sweden turned out to have the right idea.

I don't think that will happen...but thats just what I think.

My state closed down early, and we had very few cases and several days in the last couple weeks with no cases....but now we are opened up....so I'm not going to say 'it worked' just yet. History is full of false starts.

Of course, the show is not over until the Fat Lady sings. Time will tell but until then, for giggles and grins, we can examine tactics that appear to be working better than others.

What we think can be based on emotion (what we hope to happen if XYZ is done) or based on the cause and effect type of data.

I hope this thread can focus on the latter.
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Old 05-15-2020, 03:19 AM
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Okay, I will play.

My state has a very low population and locked down when we had just dozens of cases. We locked down just after NY and CA did, BEFORE there was any crisis here.

Our lockdown included outdoor recreation and work as essential activities.

Testing ability was low but hospitals treated everyone as if they had it, including themselves. Most cases where not local but among tourists and students who had come here. Community spread was limited and seems to have stopped before it ever gained a more than a foothold.

To this date, we have had less than 500 cases and I believe 9 deaths. The most recent cases have not been community spread but out of state workers. The disease is effectively eradicated inside the state borders at this time.

The key I think was the emphasis that everyone must act as though they have it, wether they had any symptoms or not, and locking down before there was any actual physical need to do so.
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Old 05-15-2020, 03:35 AM
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Like New Zealand, Australia is also doing quite well. This is despite the fact that Australia had almost as many Chinese students (400K when this all started) as the US. Back in February, Australia had about the same number of cases per million population as the US.

Among Australian states, Western Australia is performing the best.

Perth (the state capital of Western Australia) is sometimes described as the most remote capital city in the world.

The population of Western Australia is 2.7 million people.

Here are the current stats for WA:

https://experience.arcgis.com/experi...d3b6f0a028d768

In Summary:

Confirmed cases 554
Deaths 9
Active cases 7
Current cases in Hospital 0

Almost all the cases were people who contracted the virus on a cruise ship or overseas.

If close contacts of these cases are excluded there have only been 16 cases of unknown source (community transmission).

The main methods of control have been:

International, then inter-state, then intrastate travel bans
Quarantine of all arrivals/returning residents and cruise ship emergency cases
Lots of testing 63,248
Contact tracing of ALL cases
More testing of all contacts
Quarantine of positive cases
Lockdown
Social distancing
Easy borders to control

WA now looks to have a rare opportunity to actually eliminate the virus. At the same time, efforts are being made to progressively/gradually open the community back up.

But if that is done, travel bans and quarantine of any visitors will need to be maintained.

https://www.jtsi.wa.gov.au/home/coro...9)-information
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Old 05-15-2020, 04:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrizzlyetteAdams View Post
...Yes, and a thread full of links, graphs, etc. that clearly show tactics and measurable results would be a nice addition...
Have posted this elsewhere (including one of Yer-specific threads..) but I figure a re-post, Here, might be good, since this info in those other threads was quickly buried..

On 'tracking the possible Cure's side, this 'CoVID-19 Treaments Empirical-Progress Matrix' is Very helpful / informative - And relevant, Here, they are Still Updating it twice daily, which will continue to be Priceless, as this all / treatments evolve. It's also 'biasless', since it tracks / documents "what Works / Doesn't" with zero 'Political / Big-Pharma slants', either way (it seems..)

It is a PDF, so be aware (scanned it, it's Fine..) https://www.ashp.org/-/media/assets/...BA744EDF4FFB8C

..But If You don't feel it's what you were looking for (herein..) feel free to kick it out the punchbowl..

.02
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Old 05-15-2020, 08:24 PM
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One of the biggest things NZ is doing which is making its efforts successful, is a closed border. In the USA, not being able (or willing) to do that will be the a big issue for individual US states that currently have low numbers. Those states might be successful in dealing with their cases today within their borders, but as long as people are completely free to travel from any US state to another the virus will endlessly be spread around within the larger country.

Someone already mentioned what Australia did. They have a federal system similar to the US in a lot of ways, but unlike the USA they restricted intra-state travel in a big way. The end result was that they have stamped out the virus in a very similar way to NZ.
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Old 05-17-2020, 11:36 AM
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I think the most useful actual data will come out of the Navy's party ship (USS Teddy Roosevelt). Put into port in Vietnam for hooker time and then numerous flights from shore infected the ship.

A closed environment with fairly good condition well fed and healthy pool of subjects/patients. A very well developed medical system. Now among the "cured" they are finding numerous reinfections.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...navirus-261873

https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-...cials-believe/
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