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Old 10-30-2019, 12:12 PM
neiowa neiowa is offline
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[QUOTE=Shoal;19850472]The key question none of us can answer is how fast and how hard will the decline be. ...[/QUOTE

That drivel just makes my eyes/brain hurt. Life is to short....

I suggest that job one would be to restore a local electric utility grid. If unreliable/interruptable electric is good enough, perhaps based on local existing windmills (the dang things are everywhere). Not a option if the "problem" was an EMP attack. Alternatively, the 1st reliable city electric typically used localized lowhead hydro dams/power plants. So back to rivers.

The big advantage we would have over the ancient injuns/etc is that we (or at least some) know what is possible. We have trained engineers, machinist, and mechanics that can recreate what exists. Though this is likely much less true than 30yr ago. 1000000 game programmers and similar aren't going to be much help with this project. We've set the chicoms up well though for THEIR infrastructure recovery.
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Old 10-30-2019, 01:17 PM
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How many of you will survive the next 10 years without modern medicine?
Well, I can't speak for the NEXT ten....but I did for the past 20. It would have been 40 but I had a interlude with a gunshot and modern medicine 20 years ago.

Obviously everyone eventually gets old and sick at some point...but I don't buy that continuous modern medicine is a given for survival. If you are not starting out old and broken etc most people who avoid seriously injury do not need medicine to live to late middle age, at least.

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Much, much, much better than making candles, making sauerkraut and transmitting news via horses.
I'm not so sure about that. I like doing those things.
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Old 10-30-2019, 04:00 PM
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Old and broken... taper off newfangled medicine and start the oldfangled stuff Knowing how to do this, and knowing what you/your family needs/will need if SHTF and the newfangled stuff isn't available, and having it available/reproducible, and knowing how to prepare/use it, is just good prepping

The newfangled stuff (manufactured pills, etc.) is like electric lights... easy and convenient. The oldfangled stuff that you grow, harvest, prepare, and use, is probably better, anyway

The good thing is we do have a lot of newfangled knowledge to add to the oldfangled knowledge
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Old 10-30-2019, 05:12 PM
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America reduced to a pre Colombian lifestyle would attract more advanced peoples, just as it did after 1492.

A sailing ship back then could carry only a few hundred passengers and look how quickly the newcomers took over. Today's passenger and cargo ships can carry thousands of people and make the journey in many times faster.

If China is not wiped out in TEOTWAWKI they could land a million people here in the first year, and every year after, scavenging what's left and enslaving the survivors. On the other coast, whole armies will arrive from Africa. Hundreds of thousands of people and criminals will come up from the south.

Americans living the quiet pastoral life for generations while the remainder of the world sits by and watches, perhaps following the "Prime Directive" of Star Trek episodes? Pleeze! Post-grid, remaining Americans will disappear faster than they did 500 years ago.
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Old 10-30-2019, 06:50 PM
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America reduced to a pre Colombian lifestyle would attract more advanced peoples, just as it did after 1492.

A sailing ship back then could carry only a few hundred passengers and look how quickly the newcomers took over. Today's passenger and cargo ships can carry thousands of people and make the journey in many times faster.

If China is not wiped out in TEOTWAWKI they could land a million people here in the first year, and every year after, scavenging what's left and enslaving the survivors. On the other coast, whole armies will arrive from Africa. Hundreds of thousands of people and criminals will come up from the south.

Americans living the quiet pastoral life for generations while the remainder of the world sits by and watches, perhaps following the "Prime Directive" of Star Trek episodes? Pleeze! Post-grid, remaining Americans will disappear faster than they did 500 years ago.
No grid doesn't mean no nukes.


JUST the Silent service could handle any invasion.
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Old 10-31-2019, 10:16 AM
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Hick from reading your posts, I know that your procedures paralleled mine more than most people who post here. I worked for years on regular jobs until I started homesteading full time. I did start a few years earlier than you did.

I also believe it is invaluable to study and consider older ways and older civilizations to gain ideas on what is possible if we are thrown back to a way of life because of a disaster . Much depends on the disaster and how much of our modern world and population remains. Pure speculation at this point but it is always good to explore the possibilities.

The pre-Colombian population of the western hemisphere (NA) remains very controversial. Some people believing it was only a few million, others that it was in the dozens of millions. Regardless, how various civilizations survived gives us clues on how we might be able (have to) survive in the future.

I've tried to learn all levels of survival, from flint knapping and primitive bow making to subsistence farming (and modern organic farming) and many newer technological skills.. For those of us who do manage to survive a disaster, we won't necessarily have to revert back to a stone age civilization. There should be a plentiful supply of hand tools (axes, knives, garden tools, even guns) to use in the aftermath. Subsequent generations, depending on populations and many other factors may have to go full primitive but maybe not.

One thing everyone needs to remember, the European culture that supplanted the North American cultures from the 1500's through the 1800's was strictly hand and animal powered and although the New World civilizations made remarkable accomplishments, the European culture did have enough advantages to succeed in fully overcoming other civilizations throughout the world.

Although I am trying to keep aware of other levels of technology, my focus is to retain a level of technology and comfort (mid economic level) of the era of of this 300 years of European culture and of course the later in the period of that culture with it's technological and medical advances and better standard of living, (and even better, a non disaster world where we can continue the advance of the last many hundred of years). I do have plenty of tools and the land (and many of the skills) to maintain that lifestyle.

Essentially, I personally believe that if I don't catch a bullet early on, I can maintain that desired level of technology quite readily.
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Old 10-31-2019, 03:56 PM
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The key thing to remember about europe vs america is that 90% of all americans died from disease after first contact. Europeans where invading a mostly empty post apocalyptic landscape that could provide little resistance regardless of technology level.
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Old 10-31-2019, 05:53 PM
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The key thing to remember about europe vs america is that 90% of all americans died from disease after first contact. Europeans where invading a mostly empty post apocalyptic landscape that could provide little resistance regardless of technology level.



I do know that new diseases were transmitted to the aboriginal people in the Americas and decimated large numbers of people, again I know these figures are controversial.

What I do not understand is why the same factors did not work in reverse. Why did the Europeans not get decimated by new diseases from the Amerinds? Also the African and Asian continents were invaded by white Europeans (and vice versa) and neither population was decimated by 'new' diseases.

Also there is some speculation that Syphilis originated in the new world but not substantiated.

There are a lot of unknowns out there, some people trying to say how awful the white man treated the Amerinds and plenty of victim hood (and excuses) plus plenty of denial on the part of the European whites on the atrocities that took place.

At this point there is nothing we can do to amend the past. We can only work towards preserving our future. Which is my chosen direction.
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Old 10-31-2019, 05:59 PM
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The key thing to remember about europe vs america is that 90% of all americans died from disease after first contact. Europeans where invading a mostly empty post apocalyptic landscape that could provide little resistance regardless of technology level.
Yes, and after TEOTWAWKI 90 % of today's americans will be dead too. After Africa and China and Brazil invade to pick up the pieces that number will be 100%. So much for Petyr Energ's "white race, the greatest race ever. oh well.
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Old 10-31-2019, 07:12 PM
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Yes, and after TEOTWAWKI 90 % of today's americans will be dead too. After Africa and China and Brazil invade to pick up the pieces that number will be 100%. So much for Petyr Energ's "white race, the greatest race ever. oh well.


Don't sell us too short.

Why is it you would think 90% (and ultimately 100%) of Americans will die in TEOTWAWKI and Africans, Chinese and Brazilians will prosper enough to invade us and pick up the pieces. What about the many Africans, Chinese and maybe Brazilians that already live here?

Sorry OP I think this is getting well off the subject.
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Old 10-31-2019, 08:46 PM
Florida Jean Florida Jean is offline
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I do know that new diseases were transmitted to the aboriginal people in the Americas and decimated large numbers of people, again I know these figures are controversial.

What I do not understand is why the same factors did not work in reverse. Why did the Europeans not get decimated by new diseases from the Amerinds? Also the African and Asian continents were invaded by white Europeans (and vice versa) and neither population was decimated by 'new' diseases.

Also there is some speculation that Syphilis originated in the new world but not substantiated.

There are a lot of unknowns out there, some people trying to say how awful the white man treated the Amerinds and plenty of victim hood (and excuses) plus plenty of denial on the part of the European whites on the atrocities that took place.

At this point there is nothing we can do to amend the past. We can only work towards preserving our future. Which is my chosen direction.
Well, first Asia, Europe and Africa had much more contact and exposure with each other than we really once thought.

There were black African legions stationed in England. The movement of the Germanic tribes [once referred to as aryan] into Europe. The Huns and Mongols [Mongols also invaded the Middle East and Asia]. Viking Mercenaries served in Constatinoble via the Russian/Ukrianian river systems and the Black Sea. The Mediterranian was once a vast genetic and trading mixing pot. Tin from Cornwall made its way via traders to ports all through the mediterrian and then inland from pre-historic times .
Egypt, regardless of what 'race' we may have thought themselves, continually imported [often in slavery form] black africans northward from subsaharan Africa. There was an egyptian fleet way way back that went around the south end of Africa.

There was a LOT of travel between India and the middle east [and Africa] for trade by land or sea. And India traded with southeastern countries and China. China was always trading with other countries. [even when they were in their numerous closed door periods, illegal traders still worked]. Silk road.

The Americas essentially had only two real points of contact with 'the rest of the world'. Alaska and Greenland. Probably a small continual contact across the Bering sea -- but more hunters than traders. And for the Greenland route we have that one viking excursion into NewFoundland and maybe some Irish monks. [there is some believed contact via Easter Island].

Europe and Asia were sharing germs for 1000's of years via the Eurasian steppes and the Middle East/Mediterranian. The technological improvements were spread through all three continents to varying degrees. [iron smelting to different skill/need levels were pretty much everywhere]. Domestic animals and plants spread everwhere [except subsahran africa who only seemed to get dogs, cattle and goats] yet trade goods from else where could be found there.

The Americas were settled over a various argued about time period -- but one that was much shorter than the period people had been living in the Old World. And with a much smaller gene pool. They knew how to work gold. They didn't know about the wheel. They had trading but hadn't figured out how to get guinea pigs and llamas northward. Corn spread fantastically in central and North America. Potatoes hadn't gone north.

The diseases of the Old World didn't seem to follow the immigrants from the north. They were snow hunters. Often in small groups. If anyone got sick on the trip across the land bridge they died before they got to North America. It takes a population to maintain endemic diseases. The immigrants just kept spreading for a long time reaching the tip of SA in a rather quick time. Only then did they start building their populations.

They had no real domestic animal resevoir to maintain those diseases. No hogs and chickens for flus and tons of other diseases. No cattle for TB and anthrax and cowpox [and they didn't seem to bring those to give to the native animals.] There was a rodent pop. but it didn't have any exposure to the various diseases they give humans because the incoming native americans came from the old world where the diseases hadn't made the jump yet, and/or required a population of domestic animals to maintain and those incomers weren't exposed.

The cold weather crossings also protected the new native americans from various mosquoto borne diseases being brought over.

Then all of a sudden you have these disease ridden foreign folks dumping new bugs populations who had grown to larger numbers, had trade routes so the diseases spread faster than the Europeans. And Africans when they started coming over. And Asians. [the plague and hanta in the USA are from Asia, not Europe]. Toss in domestic animals. Imported mosquotoes, fleas and ticks.....

The Mississippi cultures are generally considered quite large in population. Did mass soil construction [the Mound Peoples]. Grew large areas of corn, beans and squash to maintain their population.

[Amount of which can be argued, I personally figure at minimum 1 billion for both continents and probably much more. The destruction of the Amazon rainforest is showing large human construction signs of ancient populations there -- and initial spanish explorers spoke of large open areas and lots of people/homes and non-christian worshiping. Look up petra terra.]

Note to self : decide to try petra terra myself in the next year or so.
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Old 10-31-2019, 09:43 PM
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Originally Posted by puttster View Post
America reduced to a pre Colombian lifestyle would attract more advanced peoples, just as it did after 1492.

A sailing ship back then could carry only a few hundred passengers and look how quickly the newcomers took over. Today's passenger and cargo ships can carry thousands of people and make the journey in many times faster.

If China is not wiped out in TEOTWAWKI they could land a million people here in the first year, and every year after, scavenging what's left and enslaving the survivors. On the other coast, whole armies will arrive from Africa. Hundreds of thousands of people and criminals will come up from the south.

Americans living the quiet pastoral life for generations while the remainder of the world sits by and watches, perhaps following the "Prime Directive" of Star Trek episodes? Pleeze! Post-grid, remaining Americans will disappear faster than they did 500 years ago.
The concept of something destroying the American power grid, while leaving other advanced nations standing, is so unlikely that I do not consider it.
Now that you bring it up, I still do not believe it. If the US falls, the entire world falls.

I agree with the speculation that any long term loss of electric power, would result in a very large loss (90%) of population, mostly due to starvation and plauge.
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Old 10-31-2019, 10:24 PM
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We have a wide variety of primary energy sources in North America. This gives us options.
About the only way that a grid down scenario could occur here woild be a historic solar flare, or an EMP attack.
Actually, unless things have changes since We studied about the electric grid in (of all things, an Economics class) where we were studying the crumbling national infrastructure in college. Take out a key transmission substation in the midwest, and you can cause a "cascade failure." As each subsequent substation down the line tries to pick up the load from the one before, it gets overloaded and goes down, and so on, until the grid in the majority of the country fails. Except for Texas. They have their OWN grid, independent from the rest of the country.
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Old 10-31-2019, 10:32 PM
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A nuclear exchange between USA, Russia, NATO would leave the southern hemisphere "as is." A Yellowstone event or cyberwar might too.
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Old 10-31-2019, 11:24 PM
Florida Jean Florida Jean is offline
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Assume the US population is 350,000,000. [legal,, illegal, growth to when whatever happens].

90% death rate means 35,000,000 survivors. Assume half on each side of the Mississippi. Thus 17,500,000; an actually reasonable number to grow and feed themselves.

[Personally, I don't think the death rate will be that high baring some sort of bio-engineered super bug, or two].

The population of FLA was almost 10 million when I first came to FLA [1964]. It was primarily agricultural -- orange groves, cattle, peanuts, winter greens and strawberries, sugar cane, eggs and winter milk. Essentially self supporting with trade of goods for wanted items from other states. In other words, comparable with the trade systems of pre-Columbian America. Only with the advantage of trains to haul goods [and semi-s].

Yes, there was electricity. Air conditioning was 'new'. Example, schools weren't air conditioned, unless they were being built new. I went to unairconditioned school. Lived in unairconditioned houses. Yes, air conditioning is wonderful. That window unit we got at one house and all the gerryrigging we did to move the cool air to the rest....ah...

Now, people won't live as long without massive non-electrical, production, medical and technical capacities. There will be more physical labor for people; Pre-electricity we still had large cities in the US. Yes, there will be a death rate that will not be pretty. But look at the population in your area for the type of 'SHTF' you think might occur. No electricity-- what was the population of your state/area then? What percentage of that population was 'on the farm'? With the turmoil of 'whatever' the population will probably drop below that point and grow back into it.

But like the pre-Columbian native Americans we will have major cultural centers [city-states? tribal nations?] with trade. We will have the advantages of not just have river trade [main trade system] but will have railroad tracks and interstate highways. BRIDGES -- bridges are wonder methods of crossing rivers; we don't realize that because they are so common.

Say some little valley in West Virginia is the only place that managed to save a heritage breed of turkey. With the return of semi-stable to stable areas, that breed will be quickly reintroduced.

BUT even if not, there are people who will be alive that remember domestic turkeys existed and try to start domesticating wild turkeys.

Even if all the engineers/mechanics die and all books destroyed -- people will remember that there was such a thing as steam engine [if only as in a train engine] and will start poking around trying to figure out how to do it again.

We have an advantage over pre-Columbians. We have the wheel. We have iron and steel. Hopefully we have large animals. Yes, gasoline/diesel might be hard to produce so it is 'saved' for whatever task is deemed most important, with horses, mules and oxen handling 'less important' work. If you can plow/plant/harvest 5 acres with a couple of mules how much excess crop will you produce [extremely varies, crop, weather, size of family]? And this doesn't include the kitchen garden.

In the old days crops were divided by what you ate and 'cash' crops. Folks in the south will start growing tobacco again for money to buy things. Ditto marijuana. And so on.
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