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Old 05-06-2019, 06:30 AM
S Roche S Roche is offline
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The World markets yesterday immediately showed that they don't approve of the threats of higher tariffs on China. Trump turned up the pressure Sunday on China, threatening to hike tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and slap new ones on another $325 billion in goods. Already World markets are down around 2%. Any ideas on where a safe place is in case the market drops continue?
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Old 05-06-2019, 09:18 AM
rriley rriley is offline
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Originally Posted by S Roche View Post
The World markets yesterday immediately showed that they don't approve of the threats of higher tariffs on China. Trump turned up the pressure Sunday on China, threatening to hike tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and slap new ones on another $325 billion in goods. Already World markets are down around 2%. Any ideas on where a safe place is in case the market drops continue?
Essentially this same question as been asked and answered numerous times in this forum. If you do a little bit of reading you will get plenty of ideas.
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Old 05-06-2019, 04:41 PM
xstuntman xstuntman is offline
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So you think the heathen Chinese would just walk away from the biggest, best customer and say oh well?

The Art of the Deal is a great book.

Keep in mind they are stuffing their markets even harder than we do.
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Old 05-06-2019, 06:05 PM
bugbor bugbor is offline
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I don't think of them as threats of tariffs, more like promises.
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Old 05-08-2019, 10:39 AM
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For background, here's Jim Rickard's latest:

https://dailyreckoning.com/the-trade-war-is-back/

"I said it would simply be a replay of the sequence that prevailed from 1921–39 as the original currency war started by Weimar Germany morphed into trade wars started by the United States and finally shooting wars started by Japan in Asia and Germany in Europe.

The existing currency war started in 2010 with Obama’s National Export Initiative, which led directly to the cheapest dollar in history by August 2011. The currency war evolved into a trade war by January 2018, when Trump announced tariffs on solar panels and appliances mostly from China. Unfortunately, a shooting war cannot be ruled out given rising geopolitical tensions.

The reasons the currency war and trade war today are repeating the 1921–39 sequence are not hard to discern. Countries resort to currency wars when they face a global situation of too much debt and not enough growth.

Currency wars are a way to steal growth from trading partners by reducing the cost of exports. The problem is that this tactic does not work because trade partners retaliate by reducing the value of their own currencies. This competitive devaluation goes back and forth for years.

Everyone is worse off and no one wins."
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Old 05-08-2019, 05:43 PM
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Originally Posted by OldDesertrat View Post
For background, here's Jim Rickard's latest:

https://dailyreckoning.com/the-trade-war-is-back/

"I said it would simply be a replay of the sequence that prevailed from 1921–39 as the original currency war started by Weimar Germany morphed into trade wars started by the United States and finally shooting wars started by Japan in Asia and Germany in Europe.

The existing currency war started in 2010 with Obama’s National Export Initiative, which led directly to the cheapest dollar in history by August 2011. The currency war evolved into a trade war by January 2018, when Trump announced tariffs on solar panels and appliances mostly from China. Unfortunately, a shooting war cannot be ruled out given rising geopolitical tensions.

The reasons the currency war and trade war today are repeating the 1921–39 sequence are not hard to discern. Countries resort to currency wars when they face a global situation of too much debt and not enough growth.

Currency wars are a way to steal growth from trading partners by reducing the cost of exports. The problem is that this tactic does not work because trade partners retaliate by reducing the value of their own currencies. This competitive devaluation goes back and forth for years.

Everyone is worse off and no one wins."


Jim Rickards is in the same category as Doug Casey, both being experts in their own minds engaged in deriving readership revenue from exotic predictions of events.
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Old 05-09-2019, 05:10 PM
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Well, the Big Box stores near me are still full of cheap Chinese crap. Maybe the tariffs are just designed to put the US family farmer out of business.
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Old 05-09-2019, 07:38 PM
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Part of the reason for the tariffs has to do with the fact that China is reportedly still buying Iranian oil in defiance of sanctions. Perhaps a deal of some sort could be worked out where China buys are overpriced oil?
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Old 05-09-2019, 08:11 PM
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The Chinese have a leader for life who can set trade policy for decades. They also have a cowed population that is conditioned to suffer today for gains tomorrow. They'll keep negotiating until either Trump is booted out of office or his attention wanders to some other topic. You can bet that they were watching when Trump said he was going to close the border with Mexico and wimped out a day later when the bankers and billionaires complained that closing the border would affect their bottom line and cost jobs.
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Old 05-10-2019, 02:38 AM
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Originally Posted by S Roche View Post
The World markets yesterday immediately showed that they don't approve of the threats of higher tariffs on China. Trump turned up the pressure Sunday on China, threatening to hike tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods and slap new ones on another $325 billion in goods. Already World markets are down around 2%. Any ideas on where a safe place is in case the market drops continue?
I think Trump is being a prize ****head on this and I've already seen drops.
The simple answer is diversification of asset classes, For example
US, Emerging Markets, Real Estate Investments Trusts, Bonds and Precious Metals.
An alternative could be to buy inverse tracker ETF's - that is if you believe the market direction has truly reversed.
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Old 05-10-2019, 02:41 AM
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Originally Posted by randolphrowzeebragg View Post
The Chinese have a leader for life who can set trade policy for decades. They also have a cowed population that is conditioned to suffer today for gains tomorrow. They'll keep negotiating until either Trump is booted out of office or his attention wanders to some other topic. You can bet that they were watching when Trump said he was going to close the border with Mexico and wimped out a day later when the bankers and billionaires complained that closing the border would affect their bottom line and cost jobs.

I wonder which economy/population would endure best under 2-3 years of hardship and recession? And which leadership will still be in place afterwards?
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Old 05-10-2019, 07:27 AM
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I wonder which economy/population would endure best under 2-3 years of hardship and recession? And which leadership will still be in place afterwards?
Easily.

They had a famine 40 years ago that lasted 3 years and killed 30 million of their people.

The wests idea of hardship isnt even a blip on their radar. Talk to old chinese, many coped with a constant grind of suffering that would break most people in a week, and they did it for years and years.
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Old 05-10-2019, 12:46 PM
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I wonder which economy/population would endure best under 2-3 years of hardship and recession? And which leadership will still be in place afterwards?
As a nation and culture, China would curb stomp the US in any such situation. It's not even remotely close. The US is soft, weak and becoming more so every day.
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Old 05-10-2019, 03:14 PM
txprep txprep is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OldDesertrat View Post
For background, here's Jim Rickard's latest:

https://dailyreckoning.com/the-trade-war-is-back/

"I said it would simply be a replay of the sequence that prevailed from 1921–39 as the original currency war started by Weimar Germany morphed into trade wars started by the United States and finally shooting wars started by Japan in Asia and Germany in Europe.

The existing currency war started in 2010 with Obama’s National Export Initiative, which led directly to the cheapest dollar in history by August 2011. The currency war evolved into a trade war by January 2018, when Trump announced tariffs on solar panels and appliances mostly from China. Unfortunately, a shooting war cannot be ruled out given rising geopolitical tensions.

The reasons the currency war and trade war today are repeating the 1921–39 sequence are not hard to discern. Countries resort to currency wars when they face a global situation of too much debt and not enough growth.

Currency wars are a way to steal growth from trading partners by reducing the cost of exports. The problem is that this tactic does not work because trade partners retaliate by reducing the value of their own currencies. This competitive devaluation goes back and forth for years.

Everyone is worse off and no one wins."
except that china has been using this strategy since the 1990s and .. winning.

All we are doing is preventing them from using the strategy anymore.
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Old 05-10-2019, 03:16 PM
txprep txprep is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by randolphrowzeebragg View Post
The Chinese have a leader for life who can set trade policy for decades. They also have a cowed population that is conditioned to suffer today for gains tomorrow. They'll keep negotiating until either Trump is booted out of office or his attention wanders to some other topic. You can bet that they were watching when Trump said he was going to close the border with Mexico and wimped out a day later when the bankers and billionaires complained that closing the border would affect their bottom line and cost jobs.
This is the test of the capitalistic strategy against communism. There is now a middle class and wealthy class. They are *not* used to suffering. We will see how long they last under tariffs. They will suffer much more than us.
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Old 05-10-2019, 03:38 PM
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More like a 25% increase in what normal Americans pay for living expenses. Tariffs are a elementary school solution to an issue that needs far more intelligent people working on it than a president that can barely read.

That is what advisors are for, but our POTUS won't listen to anyone because he thinks he is the smartest man in the world. My prediction is that DJT is going to put us in a depression bigger than anyone has ever imagined.
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Old 05-10-2019, 03:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by txprep View Post
This is the test of the capitalistic strategy against communism. There is now a middle class and wealthy class. They are *not* used to suffering. We will see how long they last under tariffs. They will suffer much more than us.
Erm no.
China is not communist any more. They have factories making Apple, Sony,
etc. products for most large western companies.
However, they don't have an actual democracy so it's a hybrid of communism
and capitalism and they are doing rather well economically.

Also. Tariffs don't punish the rather poor Chinese civilian who wants to buy
US made goods - they probably can't afford many of those.
They will punish US purchasers of the many products made in China.
Also, it kicks the entire world economy and anyone with investments in the nuts.
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Old 05-10-2019, 03:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lava View Post
I wonder which economy/population would endure best under 2-3 years of hardship and recession? And which leadership will still be in place afterwards?
Well, they don't really have real elections in China - so they are safe.

How would Trump do in the next election if he started a trade war that crashed the world economy, devalued the dollar and made millions of US workers unemployed?
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Old 05-10-2019, 03:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tiberius View Post
Erm no.
China is not communist any more. They have factories making Apple, Sony,
etc. products for most large western companies.
However, they don't have an actual democracy so it's a hybrid of communism
and capitalism and they are doing rather well economically.

Also. Tariffs don't punish the rather poor Chinese civilian who wants to buy
US made goods - they probably can't afford many of those.
They will punish US purchasers of the many products made in China.
Also, it kicks the entire world economy and anyone with investments in the nuts.
A hybrid of communism and capitalism? I believe that is called Fascism and the US is not far behind the Chinese with the big difference being, the American people believe they vote in their leader but they really don't.
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Old 05-10-2019, 04:36 PM
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Originally Posted by NCalHippie View Post
A hybrid of communism and capitalism? I believe that is called Fascism and the US is not far behind the Chinese with the big difference being, the American people believe they vote in their leader but they really don't.
Well it is authoritarian but that doesn't necessarily have to go along with
capitalism or communism.
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