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Old 03-20-2020, 02:20 PM
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Default Do you think a million could die in CA?



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Talking with a doctor in CA. He said they expect 50%+ could get the virus in CA and a million may day from it.

What do you think?

Fair estimate or overblown?
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Old 03-20-2020, 02:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slackercruster View Post
Talking with a doctor in CA. He said they expect 50%+ could get the virus in CA and a million may day from it.

What do you think?

Fair estimate or overblown?
At this point we just don't know, it could go either way. But it wouldn't surprise me at all if it did.
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Old 03-20-2020, 02:41 PM
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Default CAW!

If the Chinese Virus gets into the homeless camps, you bet it could.
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Old 03-20-2020, 02:44 PM
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40,000,000 * 60% catch it * 20% die = around 500,000
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Old 03-20-2020, 02:46 PM
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If the Chinese Virus gets into the homeless camps, you bet it could.
There you go. Another problem solved.
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Old 03-20-2020, 02:46 PM
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I think it is a fair estimate of what could potentially happen, hence all the concerns going around. I do think with the precautions everyone is taking it will be reduced. While people have been slow to react early on, people are definitely reacting now. Then again, there still seems be a lot of people traveling around the streets as if not much is going on. So who knows.

At least with all major events and business with large crowds are shut down, so there should be some effect in reducing it overall. Though if we stop it, or just slow it down is another matter.
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Old 03-20-2020, 02:46 PM
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Is it possible? If people aren't careful, think "it's just the flu, bro", sure, it could happen.

Once it gets into the homeless population in LA, SF, SD, it will spread quickly. Same thing would happen in Seattle, Portland, any major city.

Look at the beaches in FL. People don't care.
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Old 03-20-2020, 02:56 PM
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Given the complete lack of hygiene in homeless gatherings, and already-present disease in the addict gatherings along with how most people today don't take cleanliness into consideration like we did just a generation or two ago. People just don't keep themselves or their homes as clean as they used to. This breeds germs.

Just look at how the homeless and others are ALLOWED and ENCOURAGED to defecate right in the streets and sidewalks! And people don't seem to mind this!

WE have turned into the 3rd world. So WE will suffer 3rd world consequences. Just that simple.

Best treatment and prevention is for REAL and SANE people to NOT live or work in the urban feed lots.
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Old 03-20-2020, 03:06 PM
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The riots will kill more than the virus in this State... I'm glad I don't live in the cities.
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Old 03-20-2020, 04:42 PM
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A million dead is one sure way they will all vote democrat this fall
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Old 03-20-2020, 04:45 PM
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it very well could be true, but I hope not.
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Old 03-20-2020, 04:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by n1d View Post
If the Chinese Virus gets into the homeless camps, you bet it could.
Already had their first death in a Silicon Valley homeless camp.
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Old 03-20-2020, 04:55 PM
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They ran a program that simulated what would happen if the virus ran rampant without measures taken and results showed 50% will be infected. Yesterday they broadcast this and that's why we are now in lockdown since midnight last night.

50% IF we don't practice social distancing and quarantine but TBH just observing what a ghost town everywhere has been, we've been doing good following orders.
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Old 03-20-2020, 04:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slackercruster View Post
Talking with a doctor in CA. He said they expect 50%+ could get the virus in CA and a million may day from it.

What do you think?

Fair estimate or overblown?
Without steps, 40-70% will get it. So 50% is a fair estimate.

40m x 50% = 20m

For a million to die from it, that would mean 5% death rate.

That's higher than WHO says (at 3.4%), but lower than what Italy appears to be experiencing.

I think that's a worst case scenario but possible, IF nothing is done to slow the spread.

With the lockdown? It probably won't be near that many.
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Old 03-20-2020, 05:03 PM
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Seriously? You missed a zero.

Try ~5 MILLION deaths.

-jack

Quote:
Originally Posted by ForumSurvivalist View Post
40,000,000 * 60% catch it * 20% die = around 500,000
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Old 03-20-2020, 05:05 PM
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The death rate could be 5%, if hospitals go over capacity. If we are successful in slowing things down and the hospitals are not overran, then I think we can expect the death rate to be a lot lower.
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Old 03-20-2020, 05:09 PM
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Seems entirely possible
But there is a strident state-wide quarantine
That may keep it under a million
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Old 03-20-2020, 05:11 PM
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THe Diamond Princess provides some usable data that bears repeating.

"As of February 20, tests of most of the 3,711 people aboard the Diamond Princess confirmed that 634, or 17 percent, had the virus; 328 of them did not have symptoms at the time of diagnosis. Of those with symptoms, the fatality ratio was 1.9 percent, Russell and colleagues calculate. Of all infected, that ratio was 0.91 percent. Those 70 and older were most vulnerable, with an overall fatality ratio of about 7.3 percent."

With a 17% infection rate on a ship where the ventilation probably spread the virus, it strains credulity for the Governor of California to predict a 56% infection rate state wide.
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Old 03-20-2020, 05:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Timberline View Post
THe Diamond Princess provides some usable data that bears repeating.

"As of February 20, tests of most of the 3,711 people aboard the Diamond Princess confirmed that 634, or 17 percent, had the virus; 328 of them did not have symptoms at the time of diagnosis. Of those with symptoms, the fatality ratio was 1.9 percent, Russell and colleagues calculate. Of all infected, that ratio was 0.91 percent. Those 70 and older were most vulnerable, with an overall fatality ratio of about 7.3 percent."

With a 17% infection rate on a ship where the ventilation probably spread the virus, it strains credulity for the Governor of California to predict a 56% infection rate state wide.
Completely agree
A controlled population in close quarters
With little regard for controlling the spread of the virus
In effect, a scientic study of sorts
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Old 03-20-2020, 05:23 PM
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I highly doubt a million. It'll hit pockets of immunocompromised, public housing, the poor/ unprepared and homeless

The socioeconomic consequences of such though? Oh yeah, people WILL die in riots, stabbings/shootings, etc.

Until then, it's business as usual. I'm at my favorite taco truck which happens to be at the junkyard.

Still pulling parts, still ordering food.

How long this normalcy will last? I have no idea
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