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Old 01-27-2020, 08:39 AM
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https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/a...23467b48e9ecf6

It shows 5 cases in the US currently.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2...irus-outbreak/

FLu map
https://www.athenahealth.com/insight...-flu-ili-wk-47
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Old 01-27-2020, 08:41 AM
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Originally Posted by SAHMofTwins View Post
The live map that the news has been going on and on about really, truly stinks.

It only shows one CA case, and if you zoom in, it shows that case being In Fresno, which is nowhere near either of the two CA cases.

Anyone know a better map?
The 2 cases are extremely close together and don't justify separate dots and the dot represents all of California.
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Old 01-27-2020, 08:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by txprep View Post
LOL 2.8%

Low but still substantial mortality plus high R0 is a bad combo. Lots of people getting sick, but not that sick, means it is easier to spread to everyone.
Right. Ebola looks so horrible and kills so fast that itís easy (in first world countries) to avoid exposure.

If you live in Africa, then itís harder, since most people there are low IQ.
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Old 01-27-2020, 08:47 AM
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OK, so I climb out from under my rock to find this mess going around. As with everything, there are 2 camps set up. One, this is gonna get real bad. The other is, this is media hype. Personally I think the first just because I am geared that way. Seeing how this is spread so easily and people just wont stay off of airplanes, is there been any projections made by smart people that we should be aware of?
I am way behind here!!!!
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Old 01-27-2020, 08:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Colt View Post
The 2 cases are extremely close together and don't justify separate dots and the dot represents all of California.

Also, you can click on the dots on the map for additional information. The California dot does show 2 cases.

The map is pretty slow to update however but it seems to be the best one out there so far.
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Old 01-27-2020, 08:56 AM
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Originally Posted by Colt View Post
If that study is right with their numbers we're probably on track for a loss of 10% of the world population by the end of this.

12% of all people exposed to the virus die. Shave 2% off that will successfully manage to not be exposed. Factor in a collapse of the medical system, economic, society in general, Rule of Law, and we might start climbing back up. Still looks like 'The Big One' to me.
I would hold off on that until people start popping off in the west. We will probably never really know about China.

The possibly dubious origins of this thing could explain why China has reacted as they have.
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Old 01-27-2020, 08:56 AM
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Originally Posted by cleatis View Post
OK, so I climb out from under my rock to find this mess going around. As with everything, there are 2 camps set up. One, this is gonna get real bad. The other is, this is media hype. Personally I think the first just because I am geared that way. Seeing how this is spread so easily and people just wont stay off of airplanes, is there been any projections made by smart people that we should be aware of?
I am way behind here!!!!
The media is massively downplaying this and trying to ignore it as much as possible and talk about ANYTHING else. People reacting to this virus will crush economies. The kind of economies that pay them to advertise. I can't fathom how people think it's being hyped whatsoever.

The virus is on track to devastate the planet in a matter of months. If it keeps spreading exponentially the way it has been, we're looking at the possibility of a billion infected in a month and 10% of the population dead by the end of this.

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Old 01-27-2020, 08:57 AM
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Originally Posted by Cornly2 View Post
Also, you can click on the dots on the map for additional information. The California dot does show 2 cases.

The map is pretty slow to update however but it seems to be the best one out there so far.
Because they don't want to alarm the masses Think what would happen if people could see the numbers spinning to reflect whats really going on over there.
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Old 01-27-2020, 09:02 AM
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It's already affecting the markets. On the bright side, you might be able to find a cheap cruise in the near future.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...ts-hit-tourism
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Old 01-27-2020, 09:05 AM
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The media is massively downplaying this and trying to ignore it as much as possible and talk about ANYTHING else. People reacting to this virus will crush economies. The kind of economies that pay them to advertise. I can't fathom how people think it's being hyped whatsoever.

The virus is on track to devastate the planet in a matter of months. If it keeps spreading exponentially the way it has been, we're looking at the possibility of a billion infected in a month and 10% of the population dead by the end of this.

Thank You... I cannot help but see this as a plan to disrupt our election cycle. Not trying to derail. Again, thank you for the info. I got some more shopping to do.
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Old 01-27-2020, 09:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cleatis View Post
OK, so I climb out from under my rock to find this mess going around. As with everything, there are 2 camps set up. One, this is gonna get real bad. The other is, this is media hype. Personally I think the first just because I am geared that way. Seeing how this is spread so easily and people just wont stay off of airplanes, is there been any projections made by smart people that we should be aware of?
I am way behind here!!!!
I'm in the middle.


I think it'll break one way or the other in 2-4 weeks.


How i'd respond if I were you depends on how prepared you are.
I'm in "oh, let me pick up that thing I was thinking about mode" right now.

Just got more rechargeable AA'S and #150 N95 masks for my FD.
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Old 01-27-2020, 09:12 AM
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I am an overstocker, if you will. We did an assessment this weekend and thankfully my wife is more logical than I. I just cant help but think if an incident like this that could still go either way, may cause a run, I need to overstock...….
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Old 01-27-2020, 09:15 AM
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I lean that way also.


My compromise:
Will it go bad under normal use time frames?

If yes, I ain't getting it.

If I'm just putting it into normal rotation early.... Meh.
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Old 01-27-2020, 09:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Colt View Post
People outside China haven't had it long enough and other countries haven't run out of ICU beds with ventilators because the numbers are still low. The more people in an area that have it, the higher the mortality. People are surviving because of intensive medical resources that have a finite supply. But they're still getting sick and still spreading it.
Yep, and additionally, in outside of China cases where the patient's age is reported, most are relatively young. This virus likes to pick on the elderly.
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Old 01-27-2020, 09:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Steve_In_29 View Post
If the article in the video is correct, there is no stopping this thing. The numbers given really explain the seeming over reaction of the Chinese government and why we evacuated our embassy. .

Link to the Lancet document:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...183-5/fulltext

In the table on p4 we indeed see fever in 98% of victims, and coughing at 76%, and fatigue at 44% for all patients. My guess is that screening is not *just* fever but perhaps a holistic look at everything, which would seem to me able to catch more victims.

I do see in the findings section on p1, that as of 2 Jan 41 people were admitted, and 6 died, yielding the figure of 15%. But that's three weeks ago.

Can someone help me out here, I can't find in this document anything that says anything about an 83% infection rate. How can that figure be extrapolated?

It does however say on p 5, "The number of deaths is rising quickly", and further, "We are concerned that 2019-nCoV could have acquired the ability for efficient human transmission."
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Old 01-27-2020, 09:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Colt View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by SAHMofTwins View Post
The live map that the news has been going on and on about really, truly stinks.

It only shows one CA case, and if you zoom in, it shows that case being In Fresno, which is nowhere near either of the two CA cases.

Anyone know a better map?
The 2 cases are extremely close together and don't justify separate dots and the dot represents all of California.

Makes sense now. Dot was surprising and a wee bit too close for comfort.

I was thinking that it looked like some idiot just picked a central spot in CA to drop a dot.

That’s because some idiot just picked a central spot in CA to drop a dot. LOL

I’m guessing that’s because they’re trying to keep the map organized by state? Considering CA’s population, we’re gonna have some kinda dot when all is said and done.
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Old 01-27-2020, 09:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sensibleprep View Post
The real issue is that this is a bio-engineered or weaponized strain of the SARs virus. .
If it is a bio weapon invented by the Chinese, they would have to be pretty stupid not to have the antidote to go with it.
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Old 01-27-2020, 09:39 AM
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Unconfirmed report of student sick with coronavirus at Mason

https://www2.gmu.edu/news/582481
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Old 01-27-2020, 09:40 AM
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Originally Posted by InOmaha View Post
It's already affecting the markets. On the bright side, you might be able to find a cheap cruise in the near future.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/...ts-hit-tourism
Iím waiting on the deeply discounted airfare and hotels in Vegas, myself. Hahaha
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Old 01-27-2020, 09:42 AM
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Originally Posted by TinfoilSurvivalist View Post
Unconfirmed report of student sick with coronavirus at Mason

https://www2.gmu.edu/news/582481
Right on DC's doorstep.
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