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Old 04-23-2020, 08:05 AM
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jetgraphics jetgraphics is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by film495 View Post
I did a report on world oil, and it was all supposed to be used up and gone by 2000, did that report in the mid 80s in high school. It was a non renewable resource, and there was no more anywhere, and we were all in deep do do because once it was gone there was no more. I've read studies that we don't even know what oil is - and it probably isn't deposits from old ocean algae, it is some process that takes place inside the earth, that we don't understand, and it is renewed or generated by the earth. This is why many areas and many wells that were run dry, for some reason fill back up with oil when they go back to check the old wells.

Point being, they have no idea how much oil the earth can or will produce, but we probably haven't even scratches the surface of it yet, although - you hear doom and gloom over and over - on this and many other topics that just never turn out to be based on reality at all.
You may not recall when petroleum was cheap -and- plentiful, but old timers do. That's when gasoline was $0.19/gallon in the 1950s and 1960s.
Some also remember the Arab Oil Embargo in 1973, and its repercussions. Now "modern" prices range as high as 20 times that of the 1960s. In 2050, it may be 20 times greater. That's definitely not "cheap."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_o...sources_of_oil
In 1956, Hubbert confined his peak oil prediction to that crude oil "producible by methods now in use." By 1962, however, his analyses included future improvements in exploration and production. All of Hubbert's analyses of peak oil specifically excluded oil manufactured from oil shale or mined from oil sands. A 2013 study predicting an early peak excluded deepwater oil, tight oil, oil with API gravity less than 17.5, and oil close to the poles, such as that on the North Slope of Alaska, all of which it defined as non-conventional.

Shale oil is a substitute for conventional crude oil; however, extracting shale oil from oil shale is more costly than the production of conventional crude oil both financially and in terms of its environmental impact.
. . .
Few predicted that the government would cater to the oil producers and ignore the environmentalists who objected to the mining of oil sands and oil shale.
. . .
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum
Abiogenic petroleum

An alternative mechanism to the one described above was proposed by Russian scientists in the mid-1850s, the hypothesis of abiogenic petroleum origin (petroleum formed by inorganic means), but this is contradicted by geological and geochemical evidence. Abiogenic sources of oil have been found, but never in commercially profitable amounts. "The controversy isn't over whether abiogenic oil reserves exist," said Larry Nation of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. "The controversy is over how much they contribute to Earth's overall reserves and how much time and effort geologists should devote to seeking them out."
. . .
The bottom line : cheap & plentiful oil will be a fond memory.
To extract oil from unconventional sources will require money and resources and have environmental consequences.

As the price of fuel rises, people will react by choosing alternatives.
Wisdom suggests preparing for that time.
. . .
Barring an engineering breakthrough, the most efficient form of land transport is steel wheel on steel rail (rail roads). And the most efficient form of locomotion is electric traction rail. Once the government ceases subsidizing the automobile / petroleum / pavement hegemony, and ceases penalizing railroads, America will transition back to a railroad dominated transportation system. Long haul trucks will be replaced with short haul trucks taking containerized freight "the last mile."

If overhead catenary lines are used for streetcars / trams, they may also install lines for electric buses and trucks. Electrified cities and highways might provide the means for battery powered electric cars to overcome their inherent limited range.

Rail renaissance will trigger a parallel consolidation of population, to high density enclaves, towns, and cities. Suburban sprawl with its obligatory automobile will become too expensive a lifestyle. I wouldn't be surprised to see suburbs demolished and restored to arable land, as demand for farmland parallels the ever increasing population.
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Old 04-23-2020, 08:22 AM
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mantis tobogen mantis tobogen is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jetgraphics View Post
You may not recall when petroleum was cheap -and- plentiful, but old timers do. That's when gasoline was $0.19/gallon in the 1950s and 1960s.
Some also remember the Arab Oil Embargo in 1973, and its repercussions. Now "modern" prices range as high as 20 times that of the 1960s. In 2050, it may be 20 times greater. That's definitely not "cheap."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_o...sources_of_oil
In 1956, Hubbert confined his peak oil prediction to that crude oil "producible by methods now in use." By 1962, however, his analyses included future improvements in exploration and production. All of Hubbert's analyses of peak oil specifically excluded oil manufactured from oil shale or mined from oil sands. A 2013 study predicting an early peak excluded deepwater oil, tight oil, oil with API gravity less than 17.5, and oil close to the poles, such as that on the North Slope of Alaska, all of which it defined as non-conventional.

Shale oil is a substitute for conventional crude oil; however, extracting shale oil from oil shale is more costly than the production of conventional crude oil both financially and in terms of its environmental impact.
. . .
Few predicted that the government would cater to the oil producers and ignore the environmentalists who objected to the mining of oil sands and oil shale.
. . .
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum
Abiogenic petroleum

An alternative mechanism to the one described above was proposed by Russian scientists in the mid-1850s, the hypothesis of abiogenic petroleum origin (petroleum formed by inorganic means), but this is contradicted by geological and geochemical evidence. Abiogenic sources of oil have been found, but never in commercially profitable amounts. "The controversy isn't over whether abiogenic oil reserves exist," said Larry Nation of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. "The controversy is over how much they contribute to Earth's overall reserves and how much time and effort geologists should devote to seeking them out."
. . .
The bottom line : cheap & plentiful oil will be a fond memory.
To extract oil from unconventional sources will require money and resources and have environmental consequences.

As the price of fuel rises, people will react by choosing alternatives.
Wisdom suggests preparing for that time.
. . .
Barring an engineering breakthrough, the most efficient form of land transport is steel wheel on steel rail (rail roads). And the most efficient form of locomotion is electric traction rail. Once the government ceases subsidizing the automobile / petroleum / pavement hegemony, and ceases penalizing railroads, America will transition back to a railroad dominated transportation system. Long haul trucks will be replaced with short haul trucks taking containerized freight "the last mile."

If overhead catenary lines are used for streetcars / trams, they may also install lines for electric buses and trucks. Electrified cities and highways might provide the means for battery powered electric cars to overcome their inherent limited range.

Rail renaissance will trigger a parallel consolidation of population, to high density enclaves, towns, and cities. Suburban sprawl with its obligatory automobile will become too expensive a lifestyle. I wouldn't be surprised to see suburbs demolished and restored to arable land, as demand for farmland parallels the ever increasing population.
Inflation plays a pretty big part in the "back in the day gas was 19c a gallon" phenomenon. Candy was also a nickel and a loaf of bread 50c....

Your currency loses value over time. So the rise in price doesn't necessarily correlate with a diminishing supply.
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Old 04-23-2020, 08:42 AM
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PatrioticAmerican PatrioticAmerican is offline
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9/11 gave us the TSA. The people cowered in fear of terrorists and airplanes so they gave up ALL liberties in favor of being strip searched and sexually groped to fly.

9/11 also gave us the PATRIOT Act where we gave up our rights to habeas corpus, courts, warrants, and the like, all in the name of government provided safety against terrorists, which the PATRIOT Act doesn't really provide.

This virus shows we'll give up our businesses and our jobs in the name of being able to stay home instead. We're fat and lazy, and this proves it. We'll now do stupid things like wear face coverings like a muslim, stand in bread lines like the Soviet Union, forgo toilet paper and other supplies, all in the name of safety.

Ben Franklin was right, those who give up liberty seeking safety deserve neither and will get neither.
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