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Old 08-25-2019, 09:36 PM
Daniel8 Daniel8 is offline
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Default How much time do we have left before SHTF... Things seem to be ramping



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I'm not really asking everyone a question so much as to say that things seem to be ramping up in intensity to lead to a full blown SHTF societal collapse scenario.
We are pushing Iran who could EMP us...or take over the worlds largest oil supply and wreck the US petro dollar system.
We have not resolve with NK who Woosley confirmed has EMP on a satellite that orbits the US ever 48 hours.
Russia has the Poseidon sub marine torpedo that could wipe our our coastal cities.
Weather patterns are getting crazy.
Earthquakes are ramping up.
Civil war is looming!
The PetroDollar system could get removed easily (big one)
Terror attackers could get smart and start to do a lot on a big scale with all the imported refugees that no doubt have ties to them here.
And well the list goes on.
But serious major events seem to be knocking at our door and getting very close.

So where are you in your preps? Do you still have a fire under your boot to complete what you set out to start? Do you have a goal and are you determined to make it to that goal? Do you know who you would group up with?
For the most part I am done with what I want for now. I live at my retreat. But have also spent years researching for a best case location and have recently found where I want to move. Have even made an offer on a house and hope it goes through. If so I would buy now and move in November of 2020. Would have a lot of work to do the first year making some changes to the house and farm. But I am REALLY good at getting a lot done. In truth waiting for 14 months is killing me but I have to stay here for the time being for the money I will make from now through next year, then I'm out.
Have a group I might join near by there and it seems that it could work out good or maybe just meeting people in the county. That would also be top on my list.
So all in all though I see things ramping up hard for a perfect storm. I am hoping for 2-3 years. I know some will say they've been prepping since the 60's or 70's and things seemed bad and could happen at any moment but I think this time it will be different for many reasons.
Your thoughts on the intensity of things that could cause for a full scale societal collapse and how the signs have been intensifying?
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Old 08-25-2019, 09:43 PM
Revmgt Revmgt is offline
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It feels like there are a bunch of locked and cocked situations and any one of them could trigger a big problem, whether itís natural, political conflict, social conflict, etc.
What I try to do is make sure I have everything caught up, cars in good repair, debt low, spare parts for firearms and ammo, food in the pantry, etc. Iím working on other personal preps also, just because we have no idea when anything could happen or where it could come from.

If it wasnít for my kid I would give zero ****s, iíd Welcome the giant meteor, cheering it on from a mountain top like Woody Harrelson, but instead I make sure we have the best chance possible to be okay whatever the situation.
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Old 08-25-2019, 09:46 PM
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As far as a fire, I had a roaring fire when I first became aware of the need to prep, then as time went on the panic went away and now I do things smarter, put more thought into purchases. The fire never went away, itís like a simmer, and thatís less stressful on me and just as effective.
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Old 08-25-2019, 09:52 PM
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I think we are where we have always been somewhere between five minute and five hundred years away.

But my gut says this is still the calm before the storm.

Quote:
So where are you in your preps?
Well, its a lifestyle, not a destination.

Far enough that I can sleep at night (mostly) not as far as I will eventually be.
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Old 08-25-2019, 09:56 PM
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`

Eventually one of these type threads will prove to be prophetic, but I'm not holding my breath. I'll keep on prepping either way.

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Old 08-25-2019, 10:23 PM
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I WAS living in Washington DC in grade school when the Cuban Missile crisis was going on.

My dad was an extremely well placed lobbyist in the defense industry. He had connections all the way to the White House. One day he says nobody was leaving the house until further notice. He had a twin engine aircraft sitting at a private strip 5 miles away with pilots. His Pentagon contacts had advised there would be a 4 hour window notice before any birds flew, one way or another and we would be winging our way over Canada by then. He still had things to do so we sat there and waited for a call to meet him at the airport... or not.
The wrong phone call and the world ends as we know it.

NOTHING in my life since has been as tense on world scale since that one.

And besides... look at it realistically, Putin and his super torpedoes... what is he gonna hit? Boston, New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, maybe Seattle... anyone see where this is going????
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Old 08-25-2019, 10:54 PM
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There are numerous disaster/collapse scenarios, all of them possible. The left is working hard fanning the fires, they want a violent outcome.

While any scenario may be low probability, when analyzed together the probability of something happening is significant every day.

The worst that can happen is an atomic war, (low probability I think) or a sudden, total power outage for any reason or what ever you can think of as a cause. Major population loss, possible society setback to 1850s and failing.

It would take a long time, if ever, to regain a semblance of our present civilization.

Read about the fall of the Roman empire and the effects the English islands and how long it took them to recover.
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Old 08-26-2019, 12:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Daniel8 View Post
I'm not really asking everyone a question so much as to say that things seem to be ramping up in intensity to lead to a full blown SHTF societal collapse scenario.
......
So all in all though I see things ramping up hard for a perfect storm. I am hoping for 2-3 years. I know some will say they've been prepping since the 60's or 70's and things seemed bad and could happen at any moment but I think this time it will be different for many reasons.
Your thoughts on the intensity of things that could cause for a full scale societal collapse and how the signs have been intensifying?
as noted:

This could of been said 20 years ago.

I am on my off grid property (4 years now)

I'm in the "journey, not a destination" club.

I HAVE noticed that being more independent makes you "sweat the small stuff" less.

I have a 5 year plan for my ICF "forever house".

Doin't feel like I need to rush it.

Things may 'get worse' during that time frame, but I can be pretty independent/local for power and food if needed, and don't feel the need to rush
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Old 08-26-2019, 01:04 AM
TENNGRIZZ TENNGRIZZ is offline
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Time waits on none of us in 482 if one had told Rome that they would be finished in a year would the Romans believe you. If one had told the Eastern Romans in Constantinople that they were finished in a year before they fell to the Ottoman Turks would they believe you. 99% Probably not. JMHO and S/FI!
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Old 08-26-2019, 01:09 AM
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Originally Posted by TENNGRIZZ View Post
Time waits on none of us in 482 if one had told Rome that they would be finished in a year would the Romans believe you. If one had told the Eastern Romans in Constantinople that they were finished in a year before they fell to the Ottoman Turks would they believe you. 99% Probably not. JMHO and S/FI!
Time wasn't built in a day, nor did it fall in a year.

IIRC the eastern empire lasted hundreds of years longer than west.

plan accordingly.
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Old 08-26-2019, 02:52 AM
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Agree with NWGuy-- Cuban Missile Crisis was about as close to SHTF as it can get without it actually happening. When I was home, I was watching it unfold on TV (what they broadcast, anyway), and at school, the teacher was grumpy/scared, but she was trying to hide it. We had extra "duck and cover" drills, but then ended up with a couple of days off when they closed the school. Like a lot of other terrified people, my parents had a lot of "private time" away from us kids. We prayed a lot as a family for our country, leaders, the Soviets, etc.--dinner got cold many days in a row. I think the biggest lesson I learned then was the reality of praying for one's enemies, no matter how scared and not understanding the "why," and what loving and praying for one's enemies really meant.

The wall going up in Berlin was scary, and we prayed a lot about it/for the people "over there," but Germany was "far away," while Cuba was "close." Ditto for the Soviets in Czechloslovakia in 1968--"far away," so "nothing" to worry about, but Dad had to go onto the university campus almost every day during the Vietnam protests, and we were a lot more worried (and prayed harder for him) because of the riots. Proximity has a lot to do with event-driven fear.

I think what makes it different today are more information and the country not being as united against a (one) common enemy as it once was. Including many people not even knowing or caring about their neighbors today

Today isn't nearly as scary as stuff in the 50s and 60s
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Old 08-26-2019, 04:15 AM
Herd Sniper Herd Sniper is offline
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At the beginning of WW2 for us, the Japanese very carefully plotted the exact time, date and day of when they wanted to hit our fleet. They felt that December 7th, a Sunday, would be the ultimate best day to strike at our Pacific Fleet for a variety of reasons.

#1. Sunday was a typical religious day of rest for most Americans. We wouldn't be as alert on a Sunday as we normally would be on other days. More staff would be off and people would be more relaxed.

#2. Because of the relaxed state, our reaction times would be slower so they, the Japanese, would be less likely to suffer as many casualties as they normally would if we were ready for combat on a normal day.

#3. With the Christmas holidays fast approaching, many of our military people would be thinking about going home instead of concentrating on their jobs like they should be doing.

#4. During the weekends, in those days, military vehicles, weapons and so on were often deadlined over the weekends until repairs could be made to them. The Japanese expected a higher than normal number of airplanes to be in the shop lowering the defensive fighter capability.

Keeping all this stuff in mind, I would expect that somebody somewhere, either outside of our country or inside of it, would plan some sort of action involving a precision strike along certain timelines that would work to their advantage or to the advantage of some allies of theirs who live inside this country. It would be like Socialist International pulling off some kind of strike against our nation with the idea of helping the Democrats leap into massive government control in some fashion or at one fell swoop. I can see George Soros funding the whole thing, SI pulling it off and the Democrats taking advantage of whatever happens.

The one thing that good socialists believe in is timing. Timing of their events is so very critical to them. Timing was one of the big reasons why the Germans launched their attacks in the way that they did in WW2.

What I think is this: This next election the Democrats have pretty much resigned themselves to losing it. The core groups understand that they can't win because the radicals have presently overwhelmingly took control of the party. That means that the main body has to accept that in 2020 Trump gets re-elected. However, after the election loss shuffle caused by the 2020 butt kicking, the Democrats will get ready for the 2024 election and that's when they bring it all together for some really HUGE event or power takeover of some kind. That's when I see SI stepping up and pulling something evil out of the magician's black top hat to help the local boys and girls.
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Old 08-26-2019, 04:55 AM
WilliamAshley WilliamAshley is offline
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It is a hobby that can prolong your life. It is win win. I don't think anyone, sane, really wants the collapse of civilization in a way that is life ending for hundreds of millions of people. Its pretty remote and your odds of being a survivor may be a lot less than what you think, even if you are a prepper bearing most scenarios out there. Fact is any sudden impact scenarios you will probably get caught with your pants down unless you are already living in a secure facility that is not a designated target of a planned attack.

I wouldn't expect things to go from 0 to 60, we have been progressively under slow pressure. Fact is the US is a declining power, china is a rising power. Before that we had the rise of the Soviets, and the fall of the Colonial powers like the UK, and France (still UNSC members) Fact is the current global system has other power states, India, Germany and Brazil among others. There are also lots of secondary powers.

Looking at the short and mid term we have a global recession that a lot of people will be effected by. We have more robust technology now though and far more stable food production methods. So the baselines are far more protected because there is a lot of infrastructure development.

We can see though that infrastructure does need to be upkept so things like financial system failure - as seen effect by sanctions regimes that over time failure of the economic system leads to infrastructure failure and that leads to general economic failure including loss of agricultural supportss, and other points of critical infrastructure -- often this takes a decade or longer to happen.



Now with major impact events calamities that are very unlikely to happen it would be the big one but these are super max lotto odds and there is only one player, earth. Now statistically S could happen but S maybe won't happen. Look to God.

All that said most of the old folks don't need to worry they are going to die most likely before the major effects are felt but I think for people under 50 now they need to realize there are two very drastically opposing potential outcomes 1. an AI controlled earth 2. an earth that is technologically destroyed due to a failure to adapt such as by global war like nucear conflict, climate change, and other really not so great bad stuff that I won't list in depth. I don't think the vast majority of preppers have any expectation of surviving doomsday scenarios. So for most it is just a hobby, maybe a way of removing themselves from the technologically controlled system for a while one that will mostly run itself over time. We become far more vunerable to #2 the further we go into #1 though ironically unless those systems become robust. At that point it is mostly a social thing, what type of society do people want to live in. In a world where everything is automated and people who disrupt the processes become criminals or people who do not integrate -re china's social credit system you know there are differing models to how we are going to live. Either you accept that every aspect of your life will be graded and turn you into a cog in the wheel or you accept that in order to live free you will need to support yourself because as with the mark the beast the RMB or Yuan, or Ecurrency or social credit or whatever you will not be able to get anything in the monitored and controlled system..

You know this is really the future we face. Anyone with an indepth knowledge would realize that at this point any major war between major powers could resut in catastrophy, one that would be rolling dice on survival for a lot of people simply based on where they are located at a given time.

Precious minutes can matter but only if people are constantly plugged in this ties into the cyber war issue, if those monitoring and notification systems are all electronic and subject to EW attacks again there is no gaurentees.

Disasters happen every day. It happens stuff happens. To say nothing has happened in 40 years you've probaby not been paying attention to the news or what you are prepping for is an event that has never been likely to occur in the first place.

Are things going to happen sure. Is it going to be what you think, maybe not.

Its all social integration regardless. Living off the land will become harder and harder due to reguations and monitoring capabilities of people who want to control your life. It is just an extension of all the resource crisis' that are happening water shortages, food shortages, supply shortages, medicine shortages etc.. with more and more people the demand on the planet goes up...

we cannot produce enough for everyone at our current consumption rates. There is a timer before people start to get deseperate if people do not accept change and rationing... due to the selfishness in the modern social systems expect the worst, people will continue to murder people they don't agree with, war is not something of the past, it is something happenign right now. Skynet is coming, it may not be the peacekeeper but the power to rule.

10 20 30 40 years from now. But don't think certain areas of the world aren't facing crisis now, they already are. Again their situation will effect what acts they see as acceptable or desperate.... the rules change the worse it gets for certain areas... it is important to see it from their perspective not your position of privelege and safety. Things are very very very bad globally. While improving on some fronts, the envrionmental situation is at a point of critical failure. Due to privatized interests mostly because they are only concerned of what they can extract from nature, not what nature is required to sustain system that supports human life ongoing. IE sustainable development vs. resource extraction. The issue is systemic because our culture is dependent upon consumption that requires resource extraction but we require sustainable development to continue to live as we did in the past.


You know food water and shelter are great preps for survival but don't forget to prepare for death also. Find your peace in existence and life. Having peace in your death can remove a lot of stress while living. Having that peace in existence makes situations where you face possible death easier to deal with. I dread to think how mad people who have never been in life and death situations or near death will cope with major calamity, very traumatic for them potentially debilitation for so many. So many people get caught up in the game of life that they loose sight of the nuances of existence itself or they have been indoctrinated away from finding real inner peace and salvation. Seemingly the most overlooked prep. Live it like already happened.

Also Steven King has so many crazy mind menders. The Stand, the Mist etc.. bear in mind that these are fanciful but do not underestimate the psychological impact as a barrier for so many people surviving major crisis events were action is critical over being lost in the moment.
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Old 08-26-2019, 05:03 AM
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The doom and gloom warnings are for marketing. It happens every few years with some natural, man-made, social-economic, or pandemic threatening life as we know it. Social media, MSM, and the Internet in general just make these marketing pronouncements that much more impactful. You could literally worry yourself into the grave if you let all these fears affect you.

As many have said, it's a marathon and a lifestyle. Those who react erratically or rush to the "prepper's destination" simply won't sustain that level of preparedness. Life wouldn't be worth living if you fret daily over some natural or man-made calamity that's just around the corner. Balance is essential for your sanity. Understanding that being prepared is a continual journey, a constant evolution, and a lifestyle that changes over time with discipline and a little dedication.

I'm good. Better than yesterday, but always seeking to improve tomorrow.

ROCK6
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Old 08-26-2019, 05:24 AM
WilliamAshley WilliamAshley is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TENNGRIZZ View Post
Time waits on none of us in 482 if one had told Rome that they would be finished in a year would the Romans believe you. If one had told the Eastern Romans in Constantinople that they were finished in a year before they fell to the Ottoman Turks would they believe you. 99% Probably not. JMHO and S/FI!
Well the Romans had a new Emperor every year leading up to the fall of Rome so the older folks probably knew something was up.. especially when the last few Roman legions failed and they started to desperately bring back the last of frontier legions to defend the heart land.. they knew. But Rome wasn't defeated civilly, they continued within the Roman Catholic Church --- fact is the Roman Emperors had long ceased being from Rome before that happened where the Germans became, the practice of Roman Emperor's coming from the frontiers had been happening long before the Germans came in an took the crown.


As for the Byzantine Romans YAH, they knew for a long time that war was going on hundreds of years in fact. With the enemies at the gates they knew time was short... the crusaders sacked them prior, they definate knew the end was near, and many people had fled long before that happened.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_decline


A lot of people are transfixed on their own local issues, and fail to understand that their biggest threat is the collapse of the dominos surrounding them.
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Old 08-26-2019, 07:43 AM
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So looking back at my post and the comments I see that a lot of replies have been in regards to prepping as a lifestyle vs. a destination and that wasn't the intent of my post but thank you. Obviously prepping is a lifestyle.
I suppose if I were to change the direction of this post I would ask are you prepping for a possible immanent full scale collapse of society or are you prepping for smaller things that may be large in the event for the moment but not full scale sweeping the entire country for as long as we know it?
In other words I am prepping for an EMP / grid down scenario vs. a Katrina type scenario.
There are many many differences. It is a night and day difference in perspective and purpose and preps.
Should I start another post for this?
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Old 08-26-2019, 08:11 AM
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Quote:
I suppose if I were to change the direction of this post I would ask are you prepping for a possible immanent full scale collapse of society or are you prepping for smaller things that may be large in the event for the moment but not full scale sweeping the entire country for as long as we know it?
Both. You can't prep for collapse without also prepping for all the small stuff as well.

Quote:
In other words I am prepping for an EMP / grid down scenario vs. a Katrina type scenario.
There are many many differences. It is a night and day difference in perspective and purpose and preps.
Indeed. That goes without saying.

But you asked where we where, and if we thought things where ramping up.

Where I am is making progress I have a many page post in the homesteading section if you want to see exactly what....yes, things are ramping up....but they have been ramping up for a long time. They could ramp up for another hundred years before anything big happens or....in ten minutes we could be getting a presidential text telling us its all hitting the fan.

But if your asking if there is something particular happening right now we are worried about....for my part, no, nothing stands out as imminent collapse.

Heck, I think there is a decent chance we are already decades into the collapse and only people hundreds of years from now will be able to say what the start of it was.
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Old 08-26-2019, 08:17 AM
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Single point prepping is a mistake. Assuming that it will be this when it is that causes you to position yourself poorly in regards to resources. Does one no good to be prepared to survive a full scale bio-war by spending all your resources on hazmat suits and gas masks and not preparing to supply food/medical to your group. Make sense?

Is it going to be CWII centered around the election? A directed terror attack focused on destroying infrastructure? Bio/nuclear attack? (Terror or war) Breakdown of society due to an interruption of power/water/food? (local/regional or nationwide) I could go on but I think y'all get my point.

Social media is powerful but its only a small segment of the population that even bothers with it. 90% or thereabouts don't even know. Or care. The MSM is under other directed control. The last thing they do is provide news or information. They use social media as a spark. They're manipulators.

Stay focused.
Basics; beans, bandages, bullets. Community is sustainability. There is safety in numbers. Focus. Doing a little bit is better than doing nothing. Make a budget, stick to it. Prioritize your tasks/goals/purchases. Most of your threats will require the same preps for the most part. Don't spend a couple grand on geiger counters, dosemeters, or protective gear for a post-nuclear threat when you lack basic stocks of medical supplies. Diversity is your friend.

Improvise
Adapt
Overcome
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Old 08-26-2019, 09:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Daniel8 View Post
I'm not really asking everyone a question so much as to say that things seem to be ramping up in intensity to lead to a full blown SHTF societal collapse scenario.
We are pushing Iran who could EMP us...or take over the worlds largest oil supply and wreck the US petro dollar system.
We have not resolve with NK who Woosley confirmed has EMP on a satellite that orbits the US ever 48 hours.
Russia has the Poseidon sub marine torpedo that could wipe our our coastal cities.
Weather patterns are getting crazy.
Earthquakes are ramping up.
Civil war is looming!
The PetroDollar system could get removed easily (big one)
Terror attackers could get smart and start to do a lot on a big scale with all the imported refugees that no doubt have ties to them here.
And well the list goes on.
But serious major events seem to be knocking at our door and getting very close.

So where are you in your preps? Do you still have a fire under your boot to complete what you set out to start? Do you have a goal and are you determined to make it to that goal? Do you know who you would group up with?
For the most part I am done with what I want for now. I live at my retreat. But have also spent years researching for a best case location and have recently found where I want to move. Have even made an offer on a house and hope it goes through. If so I would buy now and move in November of 2020. Would have a lot of work to do the first year making some changes to the house and farm. But I am REALLY good at getting a lot done. In truth waiting for 14 months is killing me but I have to stay here for the time being for the money I will make from now through next year, then I'm out.
Have a group I might join near by there and it seems that it could work out good or maybe just meeting people in the county. That would also be top on my list.
So all in all though I see things ramping up hard for a perfect storm. I am hoping for 2-3 years. I know some will say they've been prepping since the 60's or 70's and things seemed bad and could happen at any moment but I think this time it will be different for many reasons.
Your thoughts on the intensity of things that could cause for a full scale societal collapse and how the signs have been intensifying?

You must be a young whipper-snapper or else just new to the prepper movement. I felt the same way in the early 70's. I was reading books on nuclear war like "Nuclear War Survival Skills" with a forward by Edward Teller, founder of the hydrogen bomb. I was still remembering how close we were to war in '62 with the Cuban missile crisis. I was preparing with great concern. I became a chapter leader of the John Birch Society. Since a senior in High School in '62, end of the world stuff has been going on all the time, Watts riot in L.A., National Guard killing students at Kent State, The anti-Viet Nam War movement, Martin Luther King, JFK, Bobby Kennedy asassinations, My Lai Massacre by Capt. Kalli, swine flu, aids pandamic, chem trails, HAARP weather control in the Arctic, CFR, Illuminati conspiracy to control the world, Tri-lateral Commission. So what you think is the end, we patriots have been thinking for years.
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