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Old 09-28-2018, 09:40 AM
Toyboy Toyboy is offline
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Until last year I had never heard the term. Recently there seems to be a growing consensus that we are in the beginning of one or it is coming.


2 items I'd like to see discussion on.

1. What is it and are we there and how will it affect us

2. Does this change your prepping? I am not an event prepper, however, Certain events have elements that would require more preps or different preps.

Educate me please folks
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Old 09-28-2018, 09:50 AM
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A solar minimum is simply the reduced solar and sunspot activity we see at the bottom of every 11 year solar cycle.

A grand solar minimum is an extended period of reduced solar activity, which means reduced solar radiation and electromagnetic properties. If it lasts more than a few years, the result on Earth is global cooling.

Is A ‘Mini Ice Age’ On The Way? The Grand Solar Minimum, Explained

A grand solar minimum is one of the explanations for the Ice Age cycles the Earth experiences every 100,000 years.

It's also the probable explanation for the Little Ice Age global cooling phenomenon we experienced from approximately 1300 until 1850.

Little Ice Age

The fact is that the sun is not stable and runs through many cycles that we do not understand. The amount of solar radiation absorbed by the Earth changes from year to year. That explains both warming and cooling trends.

Several climate scientists claim that we've already entered a grand solar minimum that could last 50 years or more. That means the bubbles will pop for all of the global warming extremists.
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Old 09-28-2018, 11:43 AM
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The sun usually has "spots" on it. They call them "sunspots". They have been observed for many years, at least since Gallileo. These observations have established that the number of sunspots on the sun is cyclical, running from what they call a "solar maximum" to what they call a "solar minimum". The attributes of this cycle (duration, intensity, etc.) are not very certain. I like Home Defense's description, however.

Scientists are beginning to believe we are entering a "grand minimum". I will certainly stand to be corrected, but I believe the last "grand minimum" was the Maunder minimum that many speculate caused the Little Ice Age in Europe. Home Defense provided a link, and there is plenty of other information available on the inner webs.

From a climatological standpoint, science has tied sunspot activity to global temperatures. I am not going to say it's causative, but there is some good science to that effect. That is why some say the Little Ice Age was actually caused by the Maunder minimum. Interestingly, sunspot activity is never a consideration in the models used to advocate for AGW, which has long been one of my criticisms.

Prepping? That's hard to say. Even the Little Ice Age was relatively localized on a global scale and some parts of the world were largely unaffected. So if we assume (1) that we are approaching a "Grand Minimum", and (2) that it is climatologically causative of large-scale global cooling, and (3) the cooling will affect where you are, you might prep. But if we use the Little Ice Age as a model, it will take years, maybe decades, to reduce temperatures.

So you now have and will have plenty of time to prep, mostly for your climatological conditions to cool significantly. I live in Houston, so I am not worried so much. We could use a little cooling. If I lived in Canada, I would be more concerned. Some of it depends on where you actually live.
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Old 09-28-2018, 11:54 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Toyboy View Post
Until last year I had never heard the term. Recently there seems to be a growing consensus that we are in the beginning of one or it is coming.


2 items I'd like to see discussion on.

1. What is it and are we there and how will it affect us
HomeDefense described it very well. The effects run from minor to very severe.
Radio communications will be affected. The atmosphere will be somewhat less ionized, so certain frequencies will not be as useful as they have been, since the ionized atmosphere reflected those frequencies back toward earth, allowing for some long distance radio communication that will now be less effective.

Fortunately, other frequencies will be better, as the ionization interfered with, rather than helped them. The main thing is that there will have to be adjustments made in how and when long-distance radio communications are done.

As HomeDefense said, there will be a cooling trend on earth. It could be minor, depending on how long the grand solar minimum lasts, and just how much the sun's energy reaching earth is reduced. Could simply be a cooling trend, could wind up being several decades of much colder weather.

The problem is, with the cycles the Earth has, as well as the solar system, it appears that we are entering a period of higher tectonic activity. Since material in the atmosphere greatly affects weather patterns short-term and long-term, if a series of major volcanoes erupt, or one or more of the mega-volcanoes erupt and put a great deal of ash and various gasses into the atmosphere, it could trigger another mini-ice age to a full-blown ice age with glaciation well below the Arctic and Antarctic circles, that might last a thousand years or more.

All of these also affect many other things, that in turn affect even more. One of the potentially really bad ones is what people will do when it becomes obvious what is happening.

For one thing, those that have been advocating an agenda based on human-caused global warming will be under the gun to explain what is happening and why they have put us in a position where we are more vulnerable to a cooling trend than we would have been if they had not done what they did. Those people are going to be desperate to not only save face, but protect the wealth they have accumulated from the agenda.

Governments will start blaming every other government, and people will demand that government does something. And once it is obvious that an evacuation that amounts to a semi-permanent migration from colder latitudes to warmer, those going are going to run into very resistant people that will be expected to welcome the migrants with open arms, and will, instead, meet them with drawn weapons.

So, not only will we have the disaster of extreme cold weather, but total social, financial, and infrastructure collapse. Any combination could lead countries to start wars to divert their populations, or to attempt to obtain resources with which to weather... well... the weather.


2. Does this change your prepping? I am not an event prepper, however, Certain events have elements that would require more preps or different preps.
It does not change things for me. A cooling trend of months to years, a 'year without a summer', a mini-ice-age, and into a full ice age have been considered in my planning and preps since the very early 70s. I have felt like any one of them will occur in my lifetime and intend to be prepared for all of them the best ways I can.

But I have also considered, and prepped accordingly, for the warming trend we were well into when I started prepping in 1967. Along with everything else I consider when thinking about preps.

The hardest thing is going to be getting those in positions of power that can make a huge difference in how easily and cheaply people can prepare for the worst to actually accept the facts and make things happen.


Educate me please folks
Just my opinion.
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Old 09-28-2018, 01:33 PM
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There are actually multiple solar cycles of various lengths happening simultaneously. When a number of cycles coincide with low solar activity we get a Grand Minimum which is much lower than average. We are just entering the beginning of such a period.
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Old 09-28-2018, 02:05 PM
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In my opinion global warming and a grand solar minimum ought to work against each other to reduce the severity of either.

Also we have better transportation now. The grain growing areas can shift either further north or further south, as needed.

I predict bigger storms and more dramatic weather either way, because that is what happens when warm weather and cold weather meet
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Old 09-28-2018, 08:48 PM
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I accept the risk of a grand solar minimum as being a quite significant probability.

The main preps that someone could have for such an event would be 10+ years of stored food.

Most people don't have the means to aquire/store that amount of processed foods (ie freeze dried or can goods), so the best foods to store in such large quantity would be bulk staples like rice, grains, corn etc.

The aim would be to have enough to supplement any food that would be available over such a crisis to ensure survival (when others may not be able to).
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Old 09-28-2018, 09:16 PM
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Originally Posted by hardcalibres View Post
I accept the risk of a grand solar minimum as being a quite significant probability.

The main preps that someone could have for such an event would be 10+ years of stored food.

Most people don't have the means to aquire/store that amount of processed foods (ie freeze dried or can goods), so the best foods to store in such large quantity would be bulk staples like rice, grains, corn etc.

The aim would be to have enough to supplement any food that would be available over such a crisis to ensure survival (when others may not be able to).
10 years stored, for a family? Yikes, that’d be a challenge!

What are thoughts on raised beds/green houses? We don’t have them, but would seem a decent way to stretch out whatever growing season. Are there low power consumption grow lamps?
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Old 09-28-2018, 09:37 PM
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10 years stored, for a family? Yikes, that’d be a challenge!

What are thoughts on raised beds/green houses? We don’t have them, but would seem a decent way to stretch out whatever growing season. Are there low power consumption grow lamps?
Yep.

Solar minima have caused mass extinctions in the past - so they are among the most serious crises that can befall us. The solutions are consequently also at the upper limit of what preppers can mitigate/achieve.

Greenhouses might work in some areas - but are less practical than stored food if you are surrounded by starving people.

A solar minimum would trigger a worldwide energy crisis - so I would not bank on grow lights.

Food calories are about as cheap as they ever have been through human history. That makes stored food an attractive option. But like I said, think bulk grains in sealed barrels rather than high price prepper food in #10 cans.
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Old 09-28-2018, 10:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hardcalibres View Post
I accept the risk of a grand solar minimum as being a quite significant probability.

The main preps that someone could have for such an event would be 10+ years of stored food.

Most people don't have the means to aquire/store that amount of processed foods (ie freeze dried or can goods), so the best foods to store in such large quantity would be bulk staples like rice, grains, corn etc.

The aim would be to have enough to supplement any food that would be available over such a crisis to ensure survival (when others may not be able to).
Going back to the Little Ice Age, it caused widespread famine and starvation across northern Europe in its time. Lots of people died from starvation.
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Old 09-29-2018, 12:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hardcalibres View Post
Yep.

Solar minima have caused mass extinctions in the past - so they are among the most serious crises that can befall us. The solutions are consequently also at the upper limit of what preppers can mitigate/achieve.

Greenhouses might work in some areas - but are less practical than stored food if you are surrounded by starving people.

A solar minimum would trigger a worldwide energy crisis - so I would not bank on grow lights.

Food calories are about as cheap as they ever have been through human history. That makes stored food an attractive option. But like I said, think bulk grains in sealed barrels rather than high price prepper food in #10 cans.

Substantially agree, but don't forget microgreens (sprouts)
They grow in winter\low light.
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Old 09-29-2018, 08:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hardcalibres View Post
I accept the risk of a grand solar minimum as being a quite significant probability.

The main preps that someone could have for such an event would be 10+ years of stored food.

Most people don't have the means to aquire/store that amount of processed foods (ie freeze dried or can goods), so the best foods to store in such large quantity would be bulk staples like rice, grains, corn etc.

The aim would be to have enough to supplement any food that would be available over such a crisis to ensure survival (when others may not be able to).
To be accurate: there is 100% probability that we are entering a grand solar minimum. It's the risk of how much effect it has on us that is variable.

Keep in mind even under past low solar cycles there was agricultural production on earth. It's a question of being prepared to grow species that will be productive during that time. Man of our current crops have not been optimized for these conditions. Researching which crops might work in your area and soil under lower temps is important. Then selecting heirlooms that could work in that environment.

We are also more educated and capable than in past low solar cycles. Consider a greenhouse. Back in the depression era my grandfather had a number of green houses he built from discarded windows. Looked odd with all those different frames pieced together but very effective. Back then he got them for free. These days lot's of people are upgrading windows in their house for better efficiency. I see those windows on the trash piles almost weekly in my area.
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Old 09-29-2018, 11:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hardcalibres View Post
Yep.

Solar minima have caused mass extinctions in the past - so they are among the most serious crises that can befall us. The solutions are consequently also at the upper limit of what preppers can mitigate/achieve.

Greenhouses might work in some areas - but are less practical than stored food if you are surrounded by starving people.

A solar minimum would trigger a worldwide energy crisis - so I would not bank on grow lights.

Food calories are about as cheap as they ever have been through human history. That makes stored food an attractive option. But like I said, think bulk grains in sealed barrels rather than high price prepper food in #10 cans.
That’s why I ask if there are any lower power consumption grow light options, figure alternative energy sources.

-Mind, simply waxing hypothetical here-

Wind power/water power to recharge a battery bank, which would, in normal times be solar powered. Yes, wind is less efficient, but could recharge non-the less.

Edit:

Interesting “instructable” from several years back, direct solar to led lighting indoor grow led lighting (no battery bank). With more current technological advances ?full UV spectrum LED lighting, perhaps more efficient?

Perhaps use something similar in a greenhouse, when less useable sunlight? Perhaps have “foamular” type insulative paneling as coverings for the green house, in case of “year of no summer” type situation. Could quickly convert greenhouse to “indoor grow room” without moving beds and such?? Pulley paneling for sunlight?? Interesting.

What “Best” type greenhouse would be most efficient to convert back and forth? Again, waxing hypothetical only here, would be partial dugout type? Dunno (obviously).

Link: https://www.instructables.com/id/DIY...ED-Grow-Light/
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Old 09-29-2018, 12:23 PM
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I believe that it will take a multiple method approach to get through a long colder climate event. Any one method will work for a particular set of circumstances, but not for all. But there is a method of some kind that will work for each set of circumstances.

It is a matter of either having the right set of methods for the set of circumstance that will occur, or since that would be a sheer luck possibility, is to have as many methods available to a person or group as possible. That way, no matter what situation comes up, it is likely to have a method with which to deal with it/them.

I cannot remember which thread it was, but I posted some ideas on growing food during cold periods, inside a shelter. A person might need a shelter due to security concerns, radiation concerns, as protection from the cold, or several other reasons.

Using old C-band dish assemblies, with reflective material applied; old Fresnel lenses from large screen TVs from the old days; and a couple more options; sunlight, even fairly low-level sunlight, can be concentrated and mirrors and pipe or using light pipes used to bring sunlight into a shelter where it is dispersed to usable levels with diffusers to provide the indoor greenhouse with the light required.

For back-up and supplemental light, the new LED grow lights require less power and can be tailored for the plants that will be grown.

If vertical grow aquaponics systems are used, with rabbit hutches, worm beds, and fish tanks, a good selection of foods, including meat and fish can be produced inside a shelter. Even Bantam chickens might be raised if further steps are taken.

Having long-term storage staples, regular gardens and greenhouses, and a selection of particularly hardy types of fruit trees, nut trees, perennials, and such, and a long-term, sustainable food supply can be produced with a high degree of self-sufficiency.


Just my opinion.
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Old 09-29-2018, 06:17 PM
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Grand solar minimum cycles have ocured several times during recorded history. The impact is colder and more intense winters in the northern hemisphere, and especially the atlantic areas currently favored by the Gulf Stream current. The Viking culture and the Gauls were especially impacted since they lived only in the arctic and North Atlantic regions.

Within these rather long solar minimum cycles are shorter periods of even more intense cold. These are caused by the weaker solar activity, combined with very large volcanic eruptions. In addition to colder winters, these very intense periods also produced short growing seasons, and several have produced killing frost during the summer months.

If the same combination of climate and volcanology conspire against us once again, grass land agriculture and cold tolerrant plants (like winter wheat) will become more important. A green house, and hoop type row covers would also be important to deal with the unexpected killing frosts. It may become impossible for midwestern farmers to grow the same warm season varieties of field corn and soybeans in the upper Midwest. It is very fortunate that our principle land grant university agronomy departments are located in this area, to observe these changes in their own extensive test fields.

A terrific source of info is the History channel special "Little Ice Age, Big Chill".
My advise to folks living in the United States is to leave the south western deserts and other drought prone areas, and relocate in the center of the country, south of Des Moines. This is one SHTF event that gives us years of warning, and we can avoid the worst affects.
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Old 10-01-2018, 09:36 AM
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I see NASA is also starting to predict a cold period ahead and measuring record thermal contraction of the Thermosphere.
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Old 10-01-2018, 08:21 PM
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Solar minima have caused mass extinctions in the past -
I have been looking around and can't find anything on this. Could you provide a link?
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Old 10-01-2018, 08:47 PM
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Sun & climate: moving in opposite directions
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Old 10-01-2018, 11:59 PM
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I see NASA is also starting to predict a cold period ahead and measuring record thermal contraction of the Thermosphere.
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Old 10-02-2018, 05:42 AM
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Solar output always leads surface temperatures. The atmosphere is already showing signs of cooling. The surface temps won't be far behind.
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