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Old 05-17-2016, 02:57 PM
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6 weeks.

I predict that within 6 weeks- probably less- their president will flee the country. Because the country is almost out of food, and they cannot buy any from other countries with their own currency, as nobody will TAKE their currency.

And, I do not think the people in power will use their hoarded dollars and yen for the benefit of the people.
Tension is already building in the streets.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/angry-str...7--sector.html
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Old 05-17-2016, 04:31 PM
bighanded bighanded is offline
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so many lessons to be learned..and this isn't some history thing from great depression era, etc..this is NOW.

makes a boy wanna go out and buy more beans and rice..and meds....while I can.
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Old 05-17-2016, 05:53 PM
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so many lessons to be learned..and this isn't some history thing from great depression era, etc..this is NOW.

makes a boy wanna go out and buy more beans and rice..and meds....while I can.

Don't just buy beans and rice, buy what you eat, eat what you store.

I'm in town for my beekeeping meeting, and stopped by a... odd lots store, it's not a salvage grocery, buy close.

Spent $71, but stocked up on things I actually USE.

Don't mistake, last time I was in there rice was 1/2 what the grocery carries, and I got 100lbs.


But throwing away stuff is no savings, and will SUCK to have a dietary shift when your under stress....
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Old 05-17-2016, 06:49 PM
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The interesting thing is, due to rationng everybody is just a LITTLE hungry instead of some people having zero food. This is very different from the Great Depression.

I think the wise thing to do would be to stand in line at 4 AM just like everybody else, to make any stockpiled food last.
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Old 05-17-2016, 06:52 PM
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It is not just South America. Just about every time we go out to a restaurant, some homeless person walks in and asks for money right at customer's tables. Of course some wave a hungry kid around like you need to care.

One manager almost physically had to throw one of these guys out of the place.

So many homeless ones. A huge increase in HAVE NOTS. And, they haven't really started to pile into this country yet.

Another thing coming. All of these people loosing jobs are fixing to start loosing houses to the banks. They did not plan or get ready. Did not save for a rainy day. Too busy showing how much they could spend and leave so much food sitting on their plates to be taken up at the restaurant.

The real deal is going to happen no Doubt about it. People with their 28 year old live in non working kids. Could be moving in on grand parents with their parents. After the house gets repoed by the old bank.

It is fixing to start getting real fun.
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Old 05-17-2016, 08:04 PM
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Originally Posted by LostViking View Post

I would imagine we might have a hand in this as well. Just like we did in trying to depose Chavez. But perhaps not this time.
Actually, it's Saudi Arabia that did it. They dropped the price of oil so low to push US and other oil producers to the edge, and Venezuela just didn't have the reserves or economic diversity to survive that.


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The house of Saud just took a credit rating hit. Something almost unthinkable just a few months ago.
I'm not sure Saudi Arabia cares. They still have a few years of operating capital in the bank, and prices on oil are creeping back up. They'll be solidly in the black very quickly once they jack the prices all the way up again.

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But just like the physics law, "For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction"
It stands to reason, that everytime someone makes money, someone else loses money.

If the rich are getting richer, the poor must be getting poorer. Or the middle is giving up a lot to feed both ends.
That's totally NOT how economics works.
You ADD value to the system when you do work or produce something, as long as it's work or something that someone else wants.

So its absolutely normal for EVERYONE in the system to make "more", unless you make something no one wants, or price it too high for them to buy it. Of course, powerful players can manipulate things, as the Saudi's have done by taking a loss on oil for a few years, because they could afford it; or like Walmart has done in it's dealings with suppliers and labor.

The only problem is when your "more" is proportionally less than the other guys "more"; if you are competing directly with him for limited resources, you start to lose, and if you lose enough, you either find a different way of making "more", or you starve.
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Old 05-17-2016, 09:19 PM
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Venezuela's problems are easy to trace. Like many South American countries it has a small, rich, ruling elite and a majority poor population. The change started when the poor, the rural, the really angry voted Chavez and his party into power. He took from the rich and gave to the poor - literally - while espousing Socialist ideals (Robin Hood must have been a Commie ). The problem was, when oil prices went through the roof and Venezuela was suddenly rich (because Chavez had taken over the oil industry), he poured that money into healthcare, education, and luxuries for the Venezuelan public, and massive support for poor nations and people in other South and Central American countries in the name of equality. Instead of building up the country's infrastructure. Now Chavez is dead, oil prices are low, the public is enraged because things are falling apart, private industry has been pretty much trashed by the years of socialist misrule, the elite are coming back and they're out for blood, there's a drought and the hydro-electric power the country depends on is barely functional, and it looks like collapse is only a matter of time.

Brazil is more complex. The country has the same sort of ruler elite as Venezuela, and a whole lot more problems, including racism, corruption up the yin-yang, lack of education, and ecological devastation. All that was papered over when China was on its buying spree; Brazil was one of their favorite markets and the country made tons of money selling thousands of tons of raw materials to China. Large numbers of the poor moved suddenly into the middle class and began buying luxuries like TV sets, usually on credit, which was widely available. Now China has stopped buying, the high flying economy has crashed, people have become poor again - even poorer than they were, because they owe so much in credit payments - and all that corruption has come to light. Things are bad. Rousseff was impeached not so much because of what she did, but because she promised to make things better and couldn't. Many of those who voted to impeach are probably going to go to prison themselves once the corruption investigations catch up to them. There is massive public anger and there will be months or years of instability, but probably no collapse.

Expect thousands to try to escape all this by heading north. To the U.S...
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Old 05-17-2016, 09:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Kansas Terri View Post
The interesting thing is, due to rationng everybody is just a LITTLE hungry instead of some people having zero food. This is very different from the Great Depression.

I think the wise thing to do would be to stand in line at 4 AM just like everybody else, to make any stockpiled food last.
Very much so. You take your ration share to stretch your stockpile -and- to be able to eat a little better than if you were strictly eating your rations or rationing your own stockpile use. During WWII, many people grew Victory Gardens and put up their harvest in canning jars; and still took their ration share. Many don't take into consideration that one needs more calories if they are physically working harder, IE: gardening by hand due to fuel shortage/fuel rationing. You also never know how severe or long a crises will end up becoming.
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Old 05-17-2016, 10:14 PM
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You also never know how severe or long a crises will end up becoming.
This is what I was thinking: Venezuela has been struggling with shortages for years, now.

What is making things particularly ugly now is that Venezuela imports 80% of their food, and that has been cut off because now the currency is hardly worth a thing. People are bringing bag fulls of money to the store in the hopes of buying ONE! bag full of food. And, with very little food now being imported soon there will be no food in the country at all. They and their loved ones will be hungry, and they will blame the people in power.

And, they will be right to blame the people in power, for printing so much money that it is now almost worthless. There have been shortages for years but the current lack of food is due to the amount of inflation the government has caused. The other nations will no longer sell them food because nobody wants their money.
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Old 05-17-2016, 10:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Nomad, 2nd View Post
Don't just buy beans and rice, buy what you eat, eat what you store.

I'm in town for my beekeeping meeting, and stopped by a... odd lots store, it's not a salvage grocery, buy close.

Spent $71, but stocked up on things I actually USE.

Don't mistake, last time I was in there rice was 1/2 what the grocery carries, and I got 100lbs.


But throwing away stuff is no savings, and will SUCK to have a dietary shift when your under stress....

you're right Nomad... I was just being brief on my post (unusual for me...grin)
my food preps actually resemble a min-grocery store...I don't have thos buckets of oats etc...we literally can reach in the big closet and pull a normal dinner...all the canned veggies that we normall eat, yes bags of rice cause I like rice, my wife learned how to pressure can including meats etc..but I typically load up the shelves with the easy cans from the grocery store when i find a sale...we rotate so nothing really gets too old.. I do find that i don't go through canned fruits quick enough.
but field peas, green beans, peas, corn, etc...there's enough put up to take us through the first 8 -12 months depending on how many family members come to call.
we have months worth of simple stuff like dishwashing detergent, toilet paper, shampoos, deodorants, toothpaste and spare brushes, etc...the list goes on,and includes common meds and more serious medical supplies...there's pretty much everything you'd go shopping for on a normal day...I sacrifice some stuff each year cause we just don't use it and it has a shorter shelf life..ie hamburger helper kind of stuff, powdered milk..things that it'd be great to have on a surprise bad end of world day...I look at it like insurance money..you spend it..if you don't need it, then it's money gone..but we are pretty good to rotate and not waste a lot.
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Old 05-17-2016, 10:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Kansas Terri View Post
This is what I was thinking: Venezuela has been struggling with shortages for years, now.

What is making things particularly ugly now is that Venezuela imports 80% of their food, and that has been cut off because now the currency is hardly worth a thing. People are bringing bag fulls of money to the store in the hopes of buying ONE! bag full of food. And, with very little food now being imported soon there will be no food in the country at all. They and their loved ones will be hungry, and they will blame the people in power.

And, they will be right to blame the people in power, for printing so much money that it is now almost worthless. There have been shortages for years but the current lack of food is due to the amount of inflation the government has caused. The other nations will no longer sell them food because nobody wants their money.
No company in their right mind would build anything there either. Look how ConocoPhilips, Exxon, Cargill, Owens Illinois and other companies had their assets stolen from them when Chavez started nationalizing Venezuela.
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Old 05-17-2016, 10:53 PM
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If the rich are getting richer, the poor must be getting poorer. Or the middle is giving up a lot to feed both ends.
In my mind the middle is like a candle burning on both ends. We all know how that plays out.

If you apply that physics law to the new global trade pacts. If the standard of living rises in those other countires, logically ours should, and most likely will, go down.
This is a very interesting theory. It only works if we all want the same things, and the amount of those things are finite. OK, there are a LOT of people who compete after gold and the amount of gold available is semi-finite, It is not easy to mine, so for some things this will work.

For other things-like money or computers or cell phones I do not think it will work, as more can be made.
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Old 05-18-2016, 12:30 AM
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This is a very interesting theory. It only works if we all want the same things, and the amount of those things are finite. OK, there are a LOT of people who compete after gold and the amount of gold available is semi-finite, It is not easy to mine, so for some things this will work.

For other things-like money or computers or cell phones I do not think it will work, as more can be made.
But they are still limited by building materials, energy, human energy, time, work/infrastructure space, etc. While these things can expand, such as population and thus human energy, it takes from other limited resources to do so. Once you add up all the potential wealth, it really is limited, though hard to quantify due to it being divided up into so many different resources. More wealth in the hands of one person, does indeed limit the wealth in the hands of others. Others must expend their per capita share of the resources for someone else to have a greater amount.

It is politically inconvenient for those who have a greater than per capita share and the nature for them is to deny it because acceptance of the fact naturally turns to talk of redistribution (regardless of if it's a good idea or not), but it's no less true.

As has been suggested, in the US wealth is being burned out from the middle. The middle class is rapidly disappearing and their wealth/resources are being shifted both to the rich (through profits) and the poor (through taxes and welfare). Historically we've seen this to be a consistent cause of disaster and resulting revolution.

On the flip side, as wealth is redistributed more evenly among the world through the abolition of tariffs and wealthy countries competing with slave labor, we see a greater middle class. This is good for them, but it does cause far greater instability due to sovereign nations being on a more equal footing and being more closely matched militarily encouraging them to try to gain an advantage.
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Old 05-18-2016, 01:16 AM
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I do not regard building materials, human energy, etc to be limited.

I do agree the middle class is shrinking. $5 does not buy what it did 10 years ago, and raises have gotten scarce.
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Old 05-18-2016, 03:25 AM
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The issues in the Latin states, North America's own social and economic unravelling, Europe's willing suicide by socialism and muslim invasion.

It's a good time to compare all the authors/researchers we know and see how their prognostications add up. See who correctly forecasted things as they are now. Then perhaps there's a chance their further predictions have validity.

Prepare accordingly.
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Old 05-18-2016, 04:55 AM
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You mean just like in the US?
Same as gypsies in Romania. The EU gives them support money based on the number of children in the family. FFS.
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Old 05-18-2016, 05:03 AM
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It is not just South America. Just about every time we go out to a restaurant, some homeless person walks in and asks for money right at customer's tables. Of course some wave a hungry kid around like you need to care.

One manager almost physically had to throw one of these guys out of the place.

So many homeless ones. A huge increase in HAVE NOTS. And, they haven't really started to pile into this country yet.

Another thing coming. All of these people loosing jobs are fixing to start loosing houses to the banks. They did not plan or get ready. Did not save for a rainy day. Too busy showing how much they could spend and leave so much food sitting on their plates to be taken up at the restaurant.

The real deal is going to happen no Doubt about it. People with their 28 year old live in non working kids. Could be moving in on grand parents with their parents. After the house gets repoed by the old bank.

It is fixing to start getting real fun.
Restaurants in Transylvania have bouncers (even the mcDonalds) to keep the gypsy kids from begging at the tables. The children used to frequent the intersections, dodging traffic to beg at car windows, often with a young baby slung over one arm whilst mum sat at the curb collecting the cash. Not so much of that now - police have tried hard to clean it up, but there are nearly twice as many kids now as 20 years ago and it's hard to keep up.

Incidentally, the schools very often refuse to even register gypsy children. Dirty, undisciplined and aggressive, they manage to attend a few weeks at best (until the weather turns cold and having limited warm clothing and shoes they stay home), ensuring Romania will have yet another whole generation of dirty, undisciplined, aggressive and uneducated gypsies to offer the rest of Europe.

Please God may we have a Brexit. It won't stop the demise of Europe, but it might slow down the horrors in UK.
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Old 05-18-2016, 05:17 AM
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Very much so. You take your ration share to stretch your stockpile -and- to be able to eat a little better than if you were strictly eating your rations or rationing your own stockpile use. During WWII, many people grew Victory Gardens and put up their harvest in canning jars; and still took their ration share. Many don't take into consideration that one needs more calories if they are physically working harder, IE: gardening by hand due to fuel shortage/fuel rationing. You also never know how severe or long a crises will end up becoming.
Vegetables and fresh fruit were not rationed during the war in England. Ration books were used for much else: for example petrol, tinned fruit, meat, butter, fabric. Gardens and rationing went hand in hand - BOTH were necessary.
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Old 05-18-2016, 08:04 AM
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Originally Posted by Nomad, 2nd View Post
Don't just buy beans and rice, buy what you eat, eat what you store.

I'm in town for my beekeeping meeting, and stopped by a... odd lots store, it's not a salvage grocery, buy close.

Spent $71, but stocked up on things I actually USE.

Don't mistake, last time I was in there rice was 1/2 what the grocery carries, and I got 100lbs.


But throwing away stuff is no savings, and will SUCK to have a dietary shift when your under stress....
The issue is if you only eat fresh food, it is difficult to stock up on fresh food. I have tried to feed my kids canned corn (for example) and they wont eat it.
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Old 05-18-2016, 09:22 AM
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Vegetables and fresh fruit were not rationed during the war in England. Ration books were used for much else: for example petrol, tinned fruit, meat, butter, fabric. Gardens and rationing went hand in hand - BOTH were necessary.
I remember WW-2 very well. About the same here in the U.S. in WW-2. Sugar, gasoline (5 gal a week), soap, etc. My grandmother made homemade soap for all the family. Could not buy tires for cars. My father would put one tire inside the other tire and then an inter tube to hold the air. Usually about 10 mile to a flat tire. Most people just walked if they went anywhere. Everyone raised as large garden as possible if they like eating.
We lived in the city close to a factory that made tank, guns, etc. Practice air raids several times a week, all lights were turned off and I would lay in bed in the dark wondering when the bomb were going to be hitting. Wasn't practice to me.
Everyone old enough to work was making something for the military.

The people today would not have any idea what it was like. No cell phone, the world just ended.

Pops
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