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Old 01-25-2020, 12:55 PM
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Default Coronavirus virus outbreak observations



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In this thread we share our personal observations on the Coronavirus virus outbreak.

World Health Organization has refused to take any major steps to contain the virus as they have delayed declaring a global emergency.

News is more focused on Trump and impeachment than the outbreak. Reminds me of Shaun of the Dead where a zombie outbreak was happening and people did not pay attention to it.

International travel is still possible.

One person has been accused of hiding their symptoms to get into France.

United States is evacuating its citizens out of the affected area in China.

It appears to me while local areas are trying to deal with the virus, international efforts are lacking. Shipping and air travel should have been shut down by now.
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Old 01-25-2020, 01:05 PM
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Originally Posted by kev View Post
In this thread we share our personal observations on the Coronavirus virus outbreak.

World Health Organization has refused to take any major steps to contain the virus as they have delayed declaring a global emergency.

News is more focused on Trump and impeachment than the outbreak. Reminds me of Shaun of the Dead where a zombie outbreak was happening and people did not pay attention to it.

International travel is still possible.

One person has been accused of hiding their symptoms to get into France.

United States is evacuating its citizens out of the affected area in China.

It appears to me while local areas are trying to deal with the virus, international efforts are lacking. Shipping and air travel should have been shut down by now.
That would be the proactive thing to do, and that’s the mindset of most on these Boards. But from an economic perspective, TPTB are much more concerned of the global disruption and panic that would ensue. And such a scenario would require the minimum 2 weeks to be sure of the efficiency.

Two weeks without air travel and shipping? Might as well call it.
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Old 01-25-2020, 02:46 PM
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According to the WHO, the mortality rate is at around 3%.

Wash your hands/make an effort not to touch your face, mouth, nose or eyes and stay away from people who are obviously sick and coughing. If you follow these simple rules your odds of catching it greatly diminish, and even if you did contract it, you have around a 97% chance of survival.

Honestly, only people who are immunocompromised should really be concerned about it. I'm sure the majority of people who have died from this were just that (old/babies/have immunosuppresant diseases) and/or didn't have access to adequate healthcare. I mean it is China...
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Old 01-25-2020, 02:53 PM
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According to the WHO, the mortality rate is at around 3%.
...
Some other sources cite 15% of confirmed cases (granted a small sample)

But let's go with 3%:

Then why is China freaking out?

Sorry for contributing to "not personal experiences"
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Old 01-25-2020, 02:55 PM
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We have to remember that "Globalists" are largely in control of this planet. And mostly, they believe our planet is vastly over populated and want to do something about it. Heck, one of their covert arms might even have planted and started this virus in the markets in Wuhan where it had the best chance to go pandemic.

Here's a list of the ones that aren't secretive.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._organizations

I believe there is a secretive, HUGE list of filthy wealthy and powerful that applaud, every time a pandemic raises its ugly head. They have been very disappointed decade after decade, since the Spanish Flu reared its ugly head.

I believe they prefer mass death at the hands of a virus, rather than WW3.


........
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Old 01-25-2020, 02:56 PM
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I was thinking the same thing this morning. The virus looks to have a 3 to 4% mortality, and an infection R0 of 2, the same as the Spanish Flu. If it goes to a full pandemic, we could see 14 million dead in the US.

The WHO should be all over this, but they are staying quiet. I would like to know the demographics of those dying. If the very young or very old are dying, then society will keep rolling, but if healthy people between 10 and 60 are dying, then I have a cause for some concern.

A 4% mortality rate in China would be 56 million deaths. Those numbers are too high because not everyone will be infected, but still scary.
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Old 01-25-2020, 02:57 PM
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I don't think quarantine is actually possible at this point, no matter how they try.
Perhaps they could delay the spread a bit. If we already have cases in North America it will spread through the population, because for every 1 actual confirmed case, there are probably hundreds of others that shared a plane ride with them etc and you won't know to avoid them, because it takes up to 2 weeks for them to show symptoms.

You saw how difficult it was to stop the spread of Ebola a while back. They said it would be simple, because it was not airborne. Well, it damn near got out of control. This one spreads like the flu, so there is no doubt in my mind.

If the fatality rate is 3%, then most should recover, but there will still be incredible disruption to society as people will still get too sick to function for a while, and 3% is still a huge number of people that will die. No telling how long supply of food and other necessities might be disrupted.

Also, since this virus is supposedly a species jumper, it may get into some of the wild animal population.
More disease vectors.
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Old 01-25-2020, 03:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Big_John View Post
We have to remember that "Globalists" are largely in control of this planet. And mostly, they believe our planet is vastly over populated and want to do something about it. Heck, one of their covert arms might even have planted and started this virus in the markets in Wuhan where it had the best chance to go pandemic.

Here's a list of the ones that aren't secretive.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._organizations

I believe there is a secretive, HUGE list of filthy wealthy and powerful that applaud, every time a pandemic raises its ugly head. They have been very disappointed decade after decade, since the Spanish Flu reared its ugly head.

I believe they prefer mass death at the hands of a virus, rather than WW3.


........


Also, viral pandemics usually kill the elderly, the weak and children...... The three people groups that population control freaks are "OK" with dying.

If the powers that be, sit on their hands and claim this is a minor thing, not putting any controls in place..... maybe they are deliberately promoting the spread?????

Even right now... our US Govt is only screening at airports in Chicago, New York, Atlanta, Los Angeles and San Francisco, checking broadly for anyone returning from China with fever, cough and other respiratory symptoms. Many Dr.'s are very concerned the Govt isn't stepping it up quicker or more broad.

Are you kidding me??? Not Honolulu? Not Denver? Not Seattle? Not Portland? Not Dallas/Ft.Worth? Not Houston?

Five million flight travelers have departed Wuhan since the first of December.


.........
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Old 01-25-2020, 03:08 PM
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I have not heard what the incubation period is but there have been reports of travelers coming down with symptoms “several days” after returning from overseas. Makes screening at airports not very effective.
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Old 01-25-2020, 03:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nomad, 2nd View Post
Some other sources cite 15% of confirmed cases (granted a small sample)

But let's go with 3%:

Then why is China freaking out?

Sorry for contributing to "not personal experiences"
The 15% vs 3% discrepency I think is easily attributed to the fact that most people don't seek medical care for a mild case of the flu.

So the confirmed cases are only a fraction of the total infection rate. Maybe 1 in 10 actually seek out medical attention? The rest just get better on their own. never saw a doctor, never were tested or counted as a confirmed case.
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Old 01-25-2020, 03:14 PM
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I have not heard what the incubation period is but there have been reports of travelers coming down with symptoms “several days” after returning from overseas. Makes screening at airports not very effective.
Estimates range from 5 days to 11 days.

I have written about Patient #5, a ten year old boy. Active virus was found in his lungs.... yet he had ZERO symptoms.



.......
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Old 01-25-2020, 03:18 PM
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Also, viral pandemics usually kill the elderly, the weak and children...... The three people groups that population control freaks are "OK" with dying.

If the powers that be, sit on their hands and claim this is a minor thing, not putting any controls in place..... maybe they are deliberately promoting the spread?????

Even right now... our US Govt is only screening at airports in Chicago, New York, Atlanta, Los Angeles and San Francisco, checking broadly for anyone returning from China with fever, cough and other respiratory symptoms. Many Dr.'s are very concerned the Govt isn't stepping it up quicker or more broad.

Are you kidding me??? Not Honolulu? Not Denver? Not Seattle? Not Portland? Not Dallas/Ft.Worth? Not Houston?

Five millions flight travelers have departed Wuhan since the first of December.


.........
Maybe they are only testing at the airports that have direct flights from the affected area?

Of course the affected area is growing to include other airports like Hong Kong and Shanghai.
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Old 01-25-2020, 03:22 PM
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Maybe they are only testing at the airports that have direct flights from the affected area?

Of course the affected area is growing to include other airports like Hong Kong and Shanghai.

Take a moment and read a couple of the articles out of Minnesota! Two cases have come into their airports and they are ****ed there hasn't been more effort.


..........
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Old 01-25-2020, 03:27 PM
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My hope is that the reason things are quiet is that they are trying to avoid panic but they are really working furiously behind the scenes.

The video from those two young doctors who lived in China and trained Chinese doctors there makes me a little more comfortable that it won't be as bad in a country where hygiene is a thing. They observed that many of the things we would absolutely not do because we know it spreads germs are consider a way to be healthier there such as spitting on the street and blowing snot out on the street. They said soap isn't even available because people don't use it other than foreign visitors. I don't want people to just be disgusted and look down on them like maybe a lower form of life or something. They seem to literally not know. I'm searching for the words to explain my thoughts and all i can come up with is it's traditional for them.
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Old 01-25-2020, 03:30 PM
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Sticking with what I know; regardless of the incubation period (still undefined at the time of writing) once an even small percentage of a large number of people get infected and get very sick to the point where they require standard* intubation and ventilation... the available ICU beds and staff once fully allocated with a body in every bed, simply cannot take more patients. Doesn't matter whether it's Wuhan or Washington or Woolloomooloo... can't conjure ventilators and staff out've thin air.

(*and IMO we forget about ECMO because there simply aren't enough ECMO teams and facilities to make a difference with even a hundred patients who need that level of life support...).

Conclusion: initial medical care standards in say US, Canada, most of Western Europe, some of Southeast Asia, will be (already is) significantly better than in Wuhan. But, once an initial wave of the seriously respiratory-compromised fills their beds and starts to exceed their capacity, the average citizen will have no better treatment options than the unfortunate cits of Wuhan.

We on here should be better prepared and less surprised than our fellow cits already. But in future we won't have access to better care.

On top of my standard preps which have long included anti-disease-transmission 'defenses' - all I have added (last Wednesday) is (a) increased the backup vitamin supply, (b) bought 10 extra N95 masks as we have a few guests after a family wedding and I want to 'issue' them one as they leave to fly home from down under, (c) a few large bags of rice plus spices on general principles; oh - and (d) moah maple syrup and chocolate, because food vices...

As always I may have overlooked something but if it really does go bad, my age should exclude my precious irreplaceable self** from access to scarce ICU resources. I'd be staying home.

(** /sarc)

Feel free to dissect my logic or lack thereof, as always!
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Old 01-25-2020, 03:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Justme11 View Post
The 15% vs 3% discrepency I think is easily attributed to the fact that most people don't seek medical care for a mild case of the flu.

So the confirmed cases are only a fraction of the total infection rate. Maybe 1 in 10 actually seek out medical attention? The rest just get better on their own. never saw a doctor, never were tested or counted as a confirmed case.
If it wasn't for the way the Chinese gov was freaking out (and the U.S. Evacuating its VIP'S) I'd be comfortable with that explanation (which I considered, and stated earlier in one of these threads)
I believe it is at minimum partially correct.
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Old 01-25-2020, 03:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Nomad, 2nd View Post
If it wasn't for the way the Chinese gov was freaking out (and the U.S. Evacuating its VIP'S) I'd be comfortable with that explanation (which I considered, and stated earlier in one of these threads)
I believe it is at minimum partially correct.
I think they somehow managed to lose control of the virus from their new Level 4 bio-weapon lab in Wuhan, and are trying to stave off the blow-back.

Corona viruses have been around for a while now, but nature has not managed to create such a perfect weaponized form yet. I think it is man-made and they screwed up and let it get loose somehow. So they are scrambling trying to mitigate the disaster with a special intensity, because they knew from day 1 how dangerous it was. (not to mention embarrassing to the Chinese Communist party)

I read that one of the effects it is having in the severe cases is a form of polio-like paralysis, which explains the couple of people that went from standing normally, to doing a face plant on the sidewalk.

While it is possible for this to be a normally evolved bug, the fact that their first of a kind (for China) bioweapon facility was just opened a couple years ago, in Wuhan, is a bit too coincidental.
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Old 01-25-2020, 03:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nomad, 2nd View Post
Some other sources cite 15% of confirmed cases (granted a small sample)

But let's go with 3%:

Then why is China freaking out?

Sorry for contributing to "not personal experiences"
`

Well 3% of 1.7 billion = 51 MILLION! Yeah, you're probably right, they should just laugh it off.


.
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Old 01-25-2020, 03:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nomad, 2nd View Post
Some other sources cite 15% of confirmed cases (granted a small sample)

But let's go with 3%:

Then why is China freaking out?

Sorry for contributing to "not personal experiences"
They are probably reading too much hype on the internet:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Justme11 View Post
I think they somehow managed to lose control of the virus from their new Level 4 bio-weapon lab in Wuhan, and are trying to stave off the blow-back.
Reality is this virus is far less deadly than Ebola, and that has been pretty well contained.
I see no reason to think this one won't be also.
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Old 01-25-2020, 03:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Chuckleberry View Post
`

Well 3% of 1.7 billion = 51 MILLION! Yeah, you're probably right, they should just laugh it off.


.

In a country of a billion where the gov makes you only have one kid because of overpopulation, and has proven itself time and time again to not care about the lives of its people....

Yes.


Context is everything.
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