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Old 10-07-2017, 07:23 PM
Kansas Terri Kansas Terri is offline
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Socialism always seems to need one person with a LOT of power to run things. This can work out well, but only as long as the person in charge is a person of honor. And, sooner or later, a leader will NOT be honorable, and then the country will be looted.

Also, power tends to corrupt, so a person who is honest when he gains power may not REMAIN honest.

The biggest difference between socialist countries and the Scandinavian countries is in the checks and balances. Power is spread between many people in, for example, the Netherlands and if a branch of government gets out of hand it can be and WILL be stopped.

As long as a country has only one powerful party or one powerful leader, it is at risk.

Lastly, when a person has a financial stake in a business he or she usually does a better job than someone who works for wages. This has always been true. This was even in the Bible, which says "the foot of the master fertilizes the land". Whether you are a Christian or not, even thousands of years ago they saw that a harvest would be better if the owner was involved in running the farm.

To start with, Capitalism in some form works better than Socialism. Even in the Scandinavian countries, which are more socialistic, the government does NOT try to take over the small businesses. The owners of those businesses do a far better job than the government ever could.

Also, Socialist countries tend to have one strong leader, such as Putin in Russia, and the Socialist countryi ideal is for the government to run almost all businesses.

Either one of those 2 things WILL bring a country to disaster. It always has. Look at both China and Russia: both allow far more Capitalism than they used to, and they are doing it because it makes the country stronger.

You mentioned the Netherlands. According to Wikipedia, "It is important to realise that the Netherlands does not have a traditional separation of powers: according to the constitution the States General and the government (the King and cabinet) share the legislative power. All legislation has to pass through the Council of State (Dutch: Raad van State) for advice and the Social-Economic Council advises the government on most social-economic legislation. The executive power is reserved for government. Note however that the Social-Economic Council has the special right to make and enforce legislation on several sectors, mostly in agriculture. The judicial power is divided into two separate systems of courts. For civil and criminal law the independent Supreme Court is the highest court. For administrative law the Raad van State is the highest court, which is ex officio chaired by the King."

So, you see that no one person or one party in the Netherlands is allowed to have too much power.

I believe that Venezuela has one strong party and then some weak ones. That is a big problem. In America, if one party gets corrupt then the other party is strong enough to eat it for lunch. You will have heard a lot of people here saying that the other party is corrupt, but much of that is just complaining. Truly corrupt politicians tend to be exposed by the other party, and then the exposed prson generally looses power.
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Old 10-07-2017, 08:04 PM
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You know Greg, you brought up an interesting point. Governments of whichever type always seem to end up corrupt. People in power want to stay there because its all about the money. Take the Russian revolution of 1917. Ultimately it was a new bunch of people in charge making the big bucks not the tsar and his buddies. You could apply that to almost every government....even the USA.

Like KansasTerri said, power corrupts.
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Old 10-09-2017, 04:57 PM
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Orwell's Animal Farm said it best.

"We are all equal, some of us are just more equal than others"
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Old 10-12-2017, 10:08 PM
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Hi my dear friends. I am surviving around here,something that was hard in Venezuela. I have been able to provide my family there because of the money I have been sending. We miss badly each other, but that's temporary. Once my papers are done, the situation will change. Mental endurance and a positive approach is needed, day to day.
The knowledge is paramount, and your brain is the most powerful survival tool you have.

Knowledge is power because will allow you to use your skills wisely.

Have I not arrived to this website back there in 2007 and start prepping, my life would be a total mess now, that is a fact.

It is a must to encourage in our families the self reliance and independence, and get them used to a frugal life, without having to give up some comfort. Life is short after all.

God bless you all for your support people! I will keep reporting.
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Old 10-14-2017, 03:49 PM
small.business.guy.1 small.business.guy.1 is offline
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This guy (The Bus Driver) has literally been reduced to combing thru the seat cushions looking for spare change....

Link is: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nati...178518756.html

From the article:

"“The truly hellish week will come around Halloween, the 27th, when they basically have to pay $1 billion and then Nov. 2, when they will have to pay another $1.2 billion,” said Russ Dallen, managing partner at Caracas Capital.

Holders of Venezuelan bonds already face an “existential crisis” because of doubts about the government’s ability to pay the $3.526 billion required over the next six weeks, added Antonio De La Cruz, executive director of the Inter American Trends consultancy."

Venezuela has big time problems when they are having to bet everything on an increase in the price of oil occurring in 2018. Crude is at $51.45 right now, and that's well within the expected $50-55 per Bbl. range for 2018. And that sludge (heavy oil) that Venezuela 'mines' already sells at a discount, as most of the refineries that can use that stuff are located in the US.

Link on "Heavy" Oil. Link is: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heavy_crude_oil

If any of the Bus Driver's Venezuelan supporters have/are taking up residency here in the US, I'd be seriously considering taking up residency elsewhere. Maybe Russia, China, or that vacation spot known as North Korea.
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Old 10-14-2017, 09:32 PM
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Originally Posted by small.business.guy.1 View Post
This guy (The Bus Driver) has literally been reduced to combing thru the seat cushions looking for spare change....

Link is: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nati...178518756.html

From the article:

"“The truly hellish week will come around Halloween, the 27th, when they basically have to pay $1 billion and then Nov. 2, when they will have to pay another $1.2 billion,” said Russ Dallen, managing partner at Caracas Capital.

Holders of Venezuelan bonds already face an “existential crisis” because of doubts about the government’s ability to pay the $3.526 billion required over the next six weeks, added Antonio De La Cruz, executive director of the Inter American Trends consultancy."

Venezuela has big time problems when they are having to bet everything on an increase in the price of oil occurring in 2018. Crude is at $51.45 right now, and that's well within the expected $50-55 per Bbl. range for 2018. And that sludge (heavy oil) that Venezuela 'mines' already sells at a discount, as most of the refineries that can use that stuff are located in the US.

Link on "Heavy" Oil. Link is: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heavy_crude_oil

If any of the Bus Driver's Venezuelan supporters have/are taking up residency here in the US, I'd be seriously considering taking up residency elsewhere. Maybe Russia, China, or that vacation spot known as North Korea.
Just for you to know, there is A LOT of thieves with money stolen from our country and properties in the South Florida. I will be more than pleased to publish here their addresses and pictures of their mansions. You just have to ask. And we honest, decent, and hard working people are struggling to survive in other countries and send some food money to our families. They have their sons and daughters studying in the best private schools with the money that otherwise could be used to invest in the medicine factories and for rising up the food production. I would love to see some lonewolf giving them what they deserve. The sanctions list should be 5 times long, because there is a lot of low profile fake owners of their properties:their relatives like cousins and other not so close family. Did you know that the Chavez older daughter lives in NYC, like a queen? She and the former PDVSA president is there in the United Nations. He stoled so much money that the only protection against international sanctions is being our representative there. Go figure. He drinks 3000$ wine bottles and enjoys the best of the USA. With the money stolen from us. Want to do something about it? write to your congressman so these two can be EXPELLED from the USA and their money and properties confiscated.
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Old 10-25-2017, 11:13 PM
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" Want to do something about it? write to your congressman so these two can be EXPELLED from the USA and their money and properties confiscated."
-------------

Greg, that's coming. The most current version (ver. 3) of the immigration rules also for the first time included regs. applicable to specific individuals in the Venezuelan government, plus some very interesting (VERY INTERESTING) additional provisions that would directly apply to the "... low profile fake owners of their properties:their relatives like cousins and other not so close family".

Those folks bet on the wrong horse, IMO. Going to take a while, but if I was one of those folks, I'd be quickly putting together a 'Plan B', and maybe a 'Plan C', with both sets of alternatives located outside of both the US and Canada.
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Old 10-25-2017, 11:27 PM
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Also, something new regarding Venezuela in the financial world.

Link is:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...under-48-hours

Pay particular attention to the 10.27 & 11.02 bonded indebtedness payments coming due. Exactly '0 days' grace period on both sets of bonds... ZERO.

Take a gander at these numbers. This game is going to get interesting really fast.

The Bus Driver only has so many 'Do Over' cards left (Like none). It's all a 'Quid Pro Quo' game these days. China and/or Russia bails out Venezuela, and there's other pressure(s) the US can apply to them.

It's an interesting game right now.
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Old 10-26-2017, 04:16 AM
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So Friday may be the Zero Hour.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/10...-48-hours.html

The danger comes from the default declaration. The following article is older, but I feel like it gives a pretty good description of what could happen next.

http://www.npr.org/2011/10/09/141195...comes-knocking
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Old 10-26-2017, 12:44 PM
Kansas Terri Kansas Terri is offline
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I bet they will be able to make Friday's deadline. After that, who knows?
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Old 10-31-2017, 03:12 PM
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Post Hello!

There is a lot of things going on now. I just saw some news that the bus driver and the muslim gang are going to make elections...but in advance. That means 6 more years to complete the Holodomor in my country...if the people does not react strongly. I am totally sick with this, as I know exactly the trick they are going to use, to fake some democratically done procedures, when it is not. There are no more guarantees for democracy. That said, I am surviving by means of entirely non conventional income. I believe, now more than ever that the best survival tool is the conjunction of knowledge, skills and positivism. Once you assess your basic needs, you will be able to deal with everything you can, if you play your cards wisely. Our economy is so deep underground that my co-workers are quitting their jobs even without bothering in anything else than sending an email. Once they get their final paycheck, 3 months later, it is useless. So a diversification of the income sources is needed. The national oil industry is in bankruptcy. Most of the phds, commited employees with lots of experience have fled, meaning that it is expected damage to reservoirs and facilities in the next few years. You should hear about what is happening with the accidents in the chinese drilling rigs. I know it because I have friends all over the country in different positions in the mainstream of the core business, and they are looking desperately a way out of the country. With the current oil prices a lot of projects all over the world are suspended or in stand-by. In the capital, Caracas, the food supply had been so so. This last month, it has worsened drastically, have been told. The christmas season, traditionally the government has used it in order to make the citizens to forget or distract the public opinion. This time is not going to be the same.
I am not in a good mood today for writing, it is raining with hail outside, and the weather is terrible. I beg you to forgive me.
I will write more about the news there in a couple of days, take care!.
Thanks you, people, to those who had been able to send assistance.
God Bless you all.
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Old 10-31-2017, 03:25 PM
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God bless you, too, Greg!
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Old 11-02-2017, 08:00 PM
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Well, looks like the bus driver just made it official. Looks like Venezuela is going to go into default on all external indebtedness.

Link is: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...morrows-final-

Remember, this is the first report - so some of the information is probably inaccurate. But it's certainly default, and that means the game is really going to get interesting.

First off, little, if any imports into Venezuela are going to occur. That likely means no chemicals for PDVSA to use for processing/treating their 'heavy' oil.

Secondly, all the bond holders are going to find themselves in 'sovereign default' hell. Refer to Argentina.

Third, it's time to play the 'Search for stolen/misappropriated assets' cards.

Then, there's this:

"As for whether or not Venezuela is about to default, from a purely technical CDS and ISDA standpoint, any distressed restructuring of debt - which is what is about to take place - is equivalent to a credit event. Which means all those who loaded up on CDS in the past three years are about to have a long-overdue payday."

No, THAT'S going to make life interesting. Anybody holding CDS (Credit Default Swaps) on Venezuelan bonded indebtedness are going to be 'in the money', and the CDS sellers are in deep.

Interesting times ahead.....
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Old 11-02-2017, 09:02 PM
Kansas Terri Kansas Terri is offline
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So, it has finally happened.

Now things in Venezuela Is going to get weird. I see that he blames the USA, but if we had not made it harder for him to use the banks he would have gone bankrupt anyways: what he was doing was nothing but a Ponzi scheme where he borrows more money to pay back the folks he had originally borrowed money from. And, every Ponzi scheme goes bankrupt sooner or later.

I have never understood why the government did not simply import grain and sell it at 10% over the cost, which would have both given the government money and also undercut the black markets, but, nah, the dishonest people would have taken the money and then put on an innocent expression. There is so much theft in the Venezuelan government I think than nothing would have worked.
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Old 11-02-2017, 09:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kansas Terri View Post
I have never understood why the government did not simply import grain and sell it at 10% over the cost, which would have both given the government money and also undercut the black markets, but, nah, the dishonest people would have taken the money and then put on an innocent expression. There is so much theft in the Venezuelan government I think than nothing would have worked.
I believe basically the government basically has ZERO money to buy the grain, and people have ZERO money to purchase the grain from the government.

The money they do have is basically worthless on the open market and nobody will trade with them at 'their' exchange rate. I remember reading they they said it was 10:1 against the USD, when in reality it was beyond 100:1 or something.
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Old 11-02-2017, 09:51 PM
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One point is all those Venezuelan 'expatriates' who have settled in the USA who are advocates of the bus driver are going to go under serious scrutiny now - especially if they/their families (and associates) have been living off funds 'stolen' from Venezuela.

That money/assets just potentially became 'hot' to all those bond holders of the now defaulted paper. Want to bet all those bus driver supporters are going to be looking to get out of the USA - like ASAP. This whole money/asset chase that's going to occur will make the Bernie Madoff saga look like a squabble over pocket change.

And then there's this (from the article):

"Vice President Tareck El Aissami - one of the individuals targeted in the sanctions - was named by Maduro as head of bond restructuring efforts. He will convene bondholders of all international debts owed by the sovereign and PDVSA. But wait, there's more, because earlier this year, the Treasury Department alleged that the same El Aissami - who was elevated to vice president in January - protected drug lords and oversaw a network exporting thousands of kilograms of cocaine."

There's NO WAY any of the US bondholders can deal with this bozo. Can anybody see any holder of defaulted Venezuelan bonds being given US DOJ clearance to meet with El Aissami anywhere? That's a RICO (Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act) charge waiting to happen.

And think what this means for CITGO? That set of angles makes my head spin.
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Old 11-09-2017, 11:32 PM
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Newest update:

Link is: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...ration-default

Here's an interesting part:

"...Venezuela may be declared insolvent as soon as Friday morning. According to the FT reports that despite promises to the contrary from Caracas, PDVSA did not in fact make a $1.1 billion payment which was due last Friday, and while some bondholders said they expected the money to arrive soon, others pointed out that the payment deadline had clearly been missed regardless.

"There has been no official communication on the payment delays. It is really odd that funds haven’t been received with sufficient time to process if the funds were sent last week as officials indicated,” said Siobhan Morden, head of Latin American bond strategy at Nomura."

Then you've got this:

"..., an official declaration of default may be imminent: according to Bloomberg, ISDA has agreed to review a request to determine whether an event of default has occurred due to delayed principal payments on the Petroleos de Venezuela SA bond that matured Nov. 2.".

That could mean all the CDS (Credit Default Swaps) just went 'into the money', which means the insurers of the bonds now have to make the payments. They (ECB, IMF, etc.) successfully avoided this happening with Greece, but the bus driver likely isn't that bright. Besides, IMO, those people (all sides) are all crooks & thieves anyway, so 'too bad, soooo sad' for them.

Anyway, this is going to get really fascinating. Then you get to this part of the puzzle:

"Tareck is in charge of convincing bondholders to accept haircuts voluntarily, or as Bloomberg puts it, "of a delicate financial dance in which investors and funds risk running afoul of the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets. Not only do U.S. sanctions prohibit Americans from receiving new bonds that Venezuela would hand them as part of a restructuring, but El Aissami is designated as a narcotics trafficker under the Kingpin Act. American corporate officers dealing with him run the risk of fines and prosecution of as much as $5 million and 30 years in prison.""

And guess what, let's say you are an international bank with a major US presence, and you send ANY of your folks to that meeting and meet with El Aissami or certain of his underlings. You are walking a really fine (like 'invisible') line at that point. Very dangerous. There's some banks which had to reach multi billion dollar settlements with the US government over 'money laundering' and other various offenses, and they will be in no hurry to go back to playing in that arena.

Another other problems the bus driver has (among the multitude) is what does this do to PVDSA, and their US subsidiary, CITGO? Supposedly, the bus driver transferred much of his government's ownership interest in CITGO to Russian corporate/government controlled entities.

Then, it easily becomes (a) The bus driver vrs. (b) Russian government vrs. (c) US OFA (Office of Foreign Assets) vrs. (d) Private financial bond holders (PVDSA bonds) vrs. (e) the CDS bag holders (and insurers), and I'm sure there's other interested parties I missed.

Grab your popcorn & kick back to watch the fireworks.
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Old 11-10-2017, 10:28 AM
Kansas Terri Kansas Terri is offline
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Apparently money is "trickling in" to bondholder's accounts.

The article says more will be known after Monday's scheduled meetings. Though I suspect meetings will be delayed.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...eve-of-default

Huh. In this article it points out that if Venezuela pay the debts that do not involve oil, but defaults on the rest, then he can still have the oil income. And oil I by far the most valuable part of Venezuela's assets. https://www.ft.com/content/c8c66bc2-...2-6786f39ef675
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Old 11-11-2017, 12:18 AM
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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ve...KBN1DA2EG?il=0

I've been getting some good updates from Reuters. The AP only seems to report on the political stories and on the ground reports.

Anywho, the link above indicates that the payment made was on principle only, not interest. The meeting Monday is scheduled to begin at 11am EST.

The US sanctions are taking a bigger toll than I realized. They prohibit any US financial entity from buying any new Venezuelan debt. That essentially kills any restructuring deal. If that wasn't enough, the two top "negotiators" for the Debt Restructure meeting Venezuela proposed are on the latest list of US sanctioned individuals.

I am wondering if Maduro's visit to Africa was to set things up for when he flees the country. I think we are entering the endgame. I can't see how the government survives this.

Other Venezuelan Debt stories:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-v...-idUSKBN1D90L4

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-r...-idUSKBN1DA122
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Old 11-11-2017, 01:55 AM
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I wouldn't bet much on the bus driver being able to shield income from his oil sales (or other asset sales).

The enabling legislation of the US OFA (Office of Foreign Assets) treats US based assets and/or Venezuelan assets (such as revenues from financial transactions) from US based locations as being subject to US OFA regulations. Which simply put, means the bus driver is screwed over. IANAL, but betting against OFA doesn't seem like a smart bet.

Also, if Venezuelan assets have been improperly transferred within the US by the bus driver's cronies, well, Office of Foreign Assets will try and freeze those assets. And they are very worthy opponents, btw. There's very, very, very few financial institutions that want to go up against those folks.

Don't under estimate one other fact. All those CDS's (Credit Default Swaps) are going to come home to roost, sooner rather than later. There's a lot of feeling that IF those CDS's covering Venezuelan bonded indebtedness go into the money and the bond insurers have to make good, can they do it?

Nobody knows.....

Think about that. There's many TRILLIONS of dollars in CDS's floating out there. This weekend, there's a whole lot of finance people working late nights. This could have a lot of consequences, and throwing the bus driver under the bus to avoid a crash scenario is a no brainer of a choice.

Just a thought.......
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