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Old 06-06-2017, 09:41 AM
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Plan twice, prep one is out of date as far as I am concerned. Yet I keep hearing this over and over. The initial plan is just a start as I learned 30 years ago in IBM mainframe computer disaster recovery classes. What I learned is once the plan is executed it needs to be carried out using SWOT analysis...

The SWOT analysis should be part of a preppers strategic planning process where it connects its original objectives and strategies of the plan in to actionable tactics carried out by the prepper - today! Specifically, SWOT is part of situation analysis in a changing environment, where the prepper depends on four key strategic areas to better determine what changes to make.

I use Swot analysis. Swot analysis involves the collection and portrayal of information about internal and external factors which have, or may have, an impact on your prepping. Swot involves the 4 key areas (where the acronym comes from):
- Strengths: characteristics of the prepping that give it an advantage over others
-Weaknesses: characteristics of the prepping that place your family at a disadvantage relative to others
- Opportunities: elements in the environment that in your prepping you could exploit to its advantage
-Threats: elements in the environment that could cause trouble for your location, safety, prepping

Tracking Swot metrics (last inventory vs this inventory) can help you keep your finger on the pulse of your prepping plan. Doing so can also help you monitor how well the objectives, goals, and strategies outlined in your original prepping plan(s) are working. Even the best prepping plans need readjustments from time to time. How often? That depends on the nature of your prepping and the changes in your environment.

Examples of prepping areas typically considered include:

-Financial resources (funding, sources of income, opportunities) maybe buy more Pm’s? Or add to cash.
-Physical resources (location, facilities, equipment) expand storage area, backup location expansion or purchase, prep goods inventory, bug out inventory
-Human resources (family, friends, neighbors) Say daughter will join you when SHTF
-Access to natural resources (roll over old food stores, local water, fuel sources)
- Current prepping processes (waste, water, cooking, heat, cool, energy, etc..)

The idea is to get an exact inventory at a point in time of where you are at rather than a warm fuzzy feeling in your head. My question to you is do you plan twice, prep once or do you have a SWOT method?
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Old 06-06-2017, 10:03 AM
souldier66 souldier66 is offline
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Interesting application of SWOT. I don't think I need to take it to that level, but for more serious preppers or if you simply want to track your progress more accurately it makes total sense.

When I first got into prepping I did an overall assessment of my situation, so a SWOT of sorts, made my plan and started executing. I've just never gone back and done another SWOT to assess my progress, mostly just focus on the next most critical gap that I see, example I'm currently focused on larger energy generation/storage so I'm looking into bigger solar setups and propane fuel storage.

I do use a workbook to track my inventory so I always know where I stand on supplies and gear.
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Old 06-06-2017, 11:10 AM
P-Dub P-Dub is offline
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This is really cool, could you possibly share a couple of your own examples for me? What did your initial SWOT analysis look like versus your most recent analysis?
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Old 06-06-2017, 03:33 PM
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I tend to agree with you and think many get WAY too tied up in an over-focused and singular plan for a singular concocted event that is very unlikely to impact them the way they plan it will, even if SHTF does play out as they think.

The SWOT analysis is helpful in this context, thanks. I tend to be a generalist and prefer to spread my preps over as many different potential SHTF scenarios as possible. This concept may help me to actually become more pragmatically focused in my prepping.
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Old 06-07-2017, 01:03 PM
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It is hard to predict exactly what the SHTF will look like. Banks may close again. Oil may stop flowing, again. The power grid may go down, no body knows for sure.

Stay flexible, plan for all possibilities.

How much food do you need per year? Produce that much food.

How much heating fuel do you need a year? Produce that much fuel.

Eat what you store, store what you eat, produce what you eat.

Rinse, repeat.
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Old 06-07-2017, 05:22 PM
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Perhaps you are letting your technology get in the way of common sense.

In one form or another I have been a prepper for over 40 years. During that time nothing has really changed. There are certain items you must have, others you need and others still you want for convenience, safety and comfort. Change the list because of age, newer better items, differing locations and differing needs or must haves. If common sense is used as a basis of your planning, then prepping becomes an everyday occurrence, not a computer problem to be analyzed.

You are obviously of the technology generation and I admire your knowledge, but not everything needs to be so strictly analyzed. Since the actual scenario is unknown, plan according to your needs and wants knowing there probably will be holes in the plan. Computers cannot plug the holes, but common sense can.
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Old 06-07-2017, 08:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Meeteetse View Post
Perhaps you are letting your technology get in the way of common sense.

In one form or another I have been a prepper for over 40 years. During that time nothing has really changed. There are certain items you must have, others you need and others still you want for convenience, safety and comfort. Change the list because of age, newer better items, differing locations and differing needs or must haves. If common sense is used as a basis of your planning, then prepping becomes an everyday occurrence, not a computer problem to be analyzed.

You are obviously of the technology generation and I admire your knowledge, but not everything needs to be so strictly analyzed. Since the actual scenario is unknown, plan according to your needs and wants knowing there probably will be holes in the plan. Computers cannot plug the holes, but common sense can.
I didn't read anything about computers in the OP? He's simply advocating a periodic intellectual analysis of your preps and determining if you ought to refocus those efforts on other things, based on a sound analytical model, which to me seems to makes a lot of sense.

We've got a lot of different cliques on this site- this SWOT analysis might help some people realize that ANOTHER 30 buckets of beans in mylar might not be the best focus to make them more secure, and snap them out of it (as an example).
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Old 06-07-2017, 09:15 PM
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To use SWOT you need to have an end game in mind correct?
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Old 06-09-2017, 02:51 PM
Urban_Adaptation Urban_Adaptation is offline
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great thread, will subscribe when I figure out how.

Really like the SWOT analysis, this is real planning.

My strength is probably water. Short term (store at least many gallons), med term, know how and be able to filter, purify water; and long term (be able to collect and purify as well as decontaminate). Also advanced, be able to help your family, friends, community; both in teaching them, and having some supplies to help them get self-sufficient.

Stock up and know how to make activated charcoal. Have clean sand on hand too. Get on rain barrels now.


My weakness is probably communication. Also, pretty weak on electricity. Need solar panels and deep cell batteries.

Thanks to everyone for your tips, advice and contributions to this forum/survivalboard!
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Old 06-09-2017, 04:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Urban_Adaptation View Post
great thread, will subscribe when I figure out how.

Really like the SWOT analysis, this is real planning.

My strength is probably water. Short term (store at least many gallons), med term, know how and be able to filter, purify water; and long term (be able to collect and purify as well as decontaminate). Also advanced, be able to help your family, friends, community; both in teaching them, and having some supplies to help them get self-sufficient.

Stock up and know how to make activated charcoal. Have clean sand on hand too. Get on rain barrels now.


My weakness is probably communication. Also, pretty weak on electricity. Need solar panels and deep cell batteries.

Thanks to everyone for your tips, advice and contributions to this forum/survivalboard!
You probably are subscribed automatically now that you've posted to the thread. Otherwise, go to near the top of the page (right above the OP) and there will be a little tab "Thread tools" drop it down and you'll see "subscribe to this thread".

I save my subscription page on my browser, so that when I open the forum I start directly at a page of the all the threads I'm currently participating in or following. When a thread jumps the shark or turns into something I'm no longer interested in, I unsubscribe using the same method for subscribing. You should find this will improve your experience here on the forum.
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Old 06-09-2017, 06:37 PM
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This is very much like the concept of Hazard/Risk/Vulnerability Assessment that is a hallmark of EM planning in BC.

It is all about seeing the dangers, figuring out how to mitigate them, and managing the mitigation methods effectively so that when the plan is put into effect it operates at maximum capacity.
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Old 06-09-2017, 07:36 PM
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I got kinda lost when you proclaimed another methodology obsolete......and then referenced the IBM mainframe on why your approach is more modern, and presumably superior.��

As a fellow IT guy, you can understand my skepticism.

But I'm not dogmatic about anything....please, give us some more concrete, practical examples. Walk us through the process. I have an open mind.
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Old 06-09-2017, 08:16 PM
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Interesting, subbed to see how this develops.
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Old 06-13-2017, 05:29 PM
kilowatt2736 kilowatt2736 is offline
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Had not heard any of these terms before... and not being a techno guy or one that responds well to graphs and charts and probability calcs etc...MY plan has always been plan for it all. But focus on the realistically probable stuff first.... which works well cuz one must have plenty of disposable income to get to steeped in every option.
So I focused on stuff that happens or has happened in recent history.
Power outage, riots, earthquake, brush fire, weather related calamity (flood tornado hurricane etc) and try to accomodate evacuation to somewhere else.
And that has enough to cost me a lot of money and I'm still not happy.
But short duration disruptions are not feared like they were 20 yrs ago and organization has taken the lead since being able to relocate due to any disaster flood fire earthquake etc seems more credible to me than other things that might happen (getting nuked by Korea) but that I probably wouldn't survive the first strike anyway... so decided to try to do better with the former first.
And I learned that failing to prep for normal life when none of that really comes is equally important...stuff like retirement, emergency funds normal stuff (house repairs, replacement appliances, new tires for the cars...etc, etc... helps keep me out of debt... which is very enjoyable.
Just my 2 cents.
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Old 06-22-2017, 12:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arizonafusilier View Post
I got kinda lost when you proclaimed another methodology obsolete......and then referenced the IBM mainframe on why your approach is more modern, and presumably superior.��

As a fellow IT guy, you can understand my skepticism.

But I'm not dogmatic about anything....please, give us some more concrete, practical examples. Walk us through the process. I have an open mind.
Attached are SWOT Analysis articles that show how it is used in a survival situations. SWOT is not just a tecno plan method. It is a universal process that is used by ALL business not just IT. For example:

https://offgridsurvival.com/survivalswotanalysis/

http://www.survivalsullivan.com/prep...swot-analysis/


Conducting a SWOT analysis of your prepping is a lot more fun than it sounds. It won’t take much time, and doing it forces you to think about your prepping in a whole new way. The point of a SWOT analysis is to help you develop a strong prepping strategy by making sure you’ve considered all of your prepping plans strengths and weaknesses, as well as the opportunities and threats it faces when the SHTF.

A simple example is water. Which I reevaluated last year (see questions below). The idea is ask about my relationship to water using SWOT. It is not about making predictions. Swot does not predict. It is asking what are your strengths in obtaining water? It is asking what are your weakness in obtaining water?....this means what is your relationship to water TODAY.

In the old method we plan for water usage per person for a specific duration. Then we review this plan periodically to see if water usage per person for a specific duration. In this case the plan focuses primarily on quantity of water at a location.

SWOT adds a new dimension. Let us look at the different angles using SWOT with water

Strengths describe the positive attributes, tangible and intangible, internal to your planning. They are within your control.

What do you do well in regenerating water if you need more?
What water resources do you currently have available?
What advantages do you have over others in getting new water resources if they are needed?

Weaknesses (internal, negative factors)

Weaknesses are aspects of your prepping that detract from the value you offer or place you at a disadvantage. You need to enhance these areas in order to survive.

What factors that are within your control detract from your ability to obtain or maintain existing and new water resources?
What areas need improvement to accomplish your objectives to obtain more water in a SHTF situation?
What do you lack to get more water (for example, expertise or access to skills or technology)?
Does your water prepping have limited resources that threaten your survival if more family are added to the site ?
Are your other water resources in a poor location?

Opportunities (external, positive factors)

Opportunities are external attractive factors that represent reasons your prepping is likely to prosper.

What water opportunities exist in your environment that you can benefit from?
What is the perception of your prepping positive with respect to water resources and new water sources?
Is the opportunity ongoing to get water , or is there just a one time window for it? In other words, how critical is your timing in obtaining more water?

Threats (external, negative factors)

Threats include external factors beyond your control that could place your plan or strategy, or the prepping itself, at risk. You have no control over these, but you may benefit by having contingency plans to address them if they should occur.

Who are your existing or potential competitors to get at existing or new water resources?
What factors beyond your control could place your prepping at risk with respect to water?
Are there challenges created by an unfavorable development that may lead to deteriorating water resources as time goes on? Weather? Location? Contamination?
What situations might threaten your survival efforts with respect to water?
Has a new product or technology been introduced that makes your water processing or storage obsolete?

Based on my SWOT answers I concluded I had enough water container storage to meet my plan. However, it was not adequate for a continued SHTF. So I added a WaterBOB Emergency Drinking Water Storage (100 Gallons), MSR HyperFlow Microfilter, Sawyer water filtration system and Potable Aqua Water Tablets to my gear based on my needs.

The SWOT as you can see makes you think about a resource not as just a quantity but an ongoing need that must be satisfied on a continual basis. This takes a static plan and makes it into a dynamic ever changing resource....
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Old 06-28-2017, 01:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KeyserSoSay View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Meeteetse View Post
Perhaps you are letting your technology get in the way of common sense.

In one form or another I have been a prepper for over 40 years. During that time nothing has really changed. There are certain items you must have, others you need and others still you want for convenience, safety and comfort. Change the list because of age, newer better items, differing locations and differing needs or must haves. If common sense is used as a basis of your planning, then prepping becomes an everyday occurrence, not a computer problem to be analyzed.

You are obviously of the technology generation and I admire your knowledge, but not everything needs to be so strictly analyzed. Since the actual scenario is unknown, plan according to your needs and wants knowing there probably will be holes in the plan. Computers cannot plug the holes, but common sense can.
I didn't read anything about computers in the OP? He's simply advocating a periodic intellectual analysis of your preps and determining if you ought to refocus those efforts on other things, based on a sound analytical model, which to me seems to makes a lot of sense.

We've got a lot of different cliques on this site- this SWOT analysis might help some people realize that ANOTHER 30 buckets of beans in mylar might not be the best focus to make them more secure, and snap them out of it (as an example).
Really need SWOT analysis for that?
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Old 07-04-2017, 04:23 PM
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Really need SWOT analysis for that?
What I have been trying to get across is too many preppers are reactive or following linear thinking in their planning. SWOT is about focusing on the bigger picture, the long term objectives. It is about examining assumptions, "the way things have been done," and taking a critical approach that questions what “I believe.” SWOT is taking into account that our thinking is going to be partly based on inaccurate information and/or conclusions because of unforeseen changes.

In the beans example using simple planning we decide to stop buying beans because we have more than enough. Using SWOT we discover that the excess amount of beans will drive our diet in the SHTF and you know the ill affects of eating too much of one food can do to one. So we trade our excess beans for freeze dried fruits.

Conducting a SWOT analysis to objectively evaluate your current prepping at any stage means putting some attention on areas that you might not have actually given much attention or time to. A SWOT analysis recognizes that there are both internal and external factors that can affect the ability of the prepping to be successful. Analyzing prepping factors means:

- Strengths need to be maintained, built upon or leveraged.
- Weaknesses need to be remedied or stopped.
- Opportunities need to be prioritized and optimized.
- Threats need to be countered or minimized.
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Old 07-05-2017, 11:09 AM
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Even though I don't do it formally, I've probably used SWOT for 30 years.

I think there are different ways to analyze one's situation. What works, conceptually, for one person might be confusing to the other, and vice versa.

I advocate prepping capabilities, not scenarios. I also advocate thinking of survival as starting with the basic six: water, food, hygiene, first aid/medical, light/heat/cooking fuel, and defense. Once those are done, one can branch out into things that improve one's chances, such as adding tools, communications, sources of energy, etc.

I think this works, for me. I think it can work for a lot of people. But is it the only way? No. I don't do SWOT formally, but it's always there. I have a fair amount of stored water and multiple ways to "make more." But what if I can't get to a source of water? What if I am forced to stay in my home, or the water source is controlled by others? That's the threat, and I need multiple options to deal with it.

Does it matter what system you use as long as it gets you there? In my view, no.
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Old 07-05-2017, 08:20 PM
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Ya know.... I have reread the subject of the thread, and I need some clarification.

What is "plan twice, prep one" really mean? I think subconsciously I got this confused with "two is one, and one is none".

I have not read the words "plan twice, prep one" on these boards, so forgive me, I'm afraid I need an example of this concept. And maybe some evidence of it's widespread acceptance?
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Old 07-06-2017, 12:15 PM
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Ya know.... I have reread the subject of the thread, and I need some clarification.

What is "plan twice, prep one" really mean? I think subconsciously I got this confused with "two is one, and one is none".

I have not read the words "plan twice, prep one" on these boards, so forgive me, I'm afraid I need an example of this concept. And maybe some evidence of it's widespread acceptance?
It's similar to "measure twice, cut once."

Early in prepping careers sometimes new preppers will throw money at the problem, with no plan or no set of priorities. It's very hard to resist that, especially if one feels very late to the show.
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