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Italy COVID19 projections

6K views 17 replies 5 participants last post by  Dragunov 
#1 ·
Buona giornata!

Okay, unless you want me to say left, right or straight or other greetings, that is about the extent of my Italian. I have taken the Italian values from:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

And entered them into a predictive spreadsheet I developed for the USA. At midnight each night I enter the new total cases value into the appropriate column, then extend the graph to include the new value and then re-enter the coefficients into the fields above to fine tune the model.

Hope this is helpful.

9mmMike
 

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#5 ·
Hi at all.....here, in Italy, the situation is very strange....every media talking about Covid-19 but it seems a virtual epidemic. Around the streets there are a very few cops that control people.....and in the hospitals there are a very few sick people.I don't know what is happening now in the world...but the politicians are playing with our(your) lifes and dreams.....Sorry for my english..Hi
 
#6 ·
Thanks for the info.

And by the way, your English is just perfect enough for me to believe you are actually in Italy, or you're one of the best trolls ever. If you're not a troll, then your English is good enough.

Please keep us updated and tell us more of what's going on. I know I'd appreciate it. :)
 
#8 ·
Ok, well give us details. Our news is giving us virtually nothing about whats going on in Italy. The news just posts numbers.

Even the simple day to day stuff is interesting, at least to me. So please tell us what you can!

Lol, you may become this entire board's "Italian diplomat" for all I know. :D:

We welcome your thoughts and observations. :thumb:
 
#18 ·
They're saying the R0 is 2.5. It's not. It's more along the lines of R6, and it's not airborne according to "them". All that I'm seeing, says it is. At least to a point. Not as deadly as some other diseases, but far easier to catch.

Is it as deadly as Spanish flu? Probably not. Is it more deadly than the current flu strain? Well, let's see the numbers after a year.
 
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