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Old 05-04-2016, 08:05 PM
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Default Big quake on the horizon?



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*PLEASE NOTE* If your post is about how you'd never set foot in "Kommiefornia", how we should leave this horrible state or general bad mouthing of CA please move on to another thread. This thread is for Californian's (and anyone else that preps for quakes) to discuss prepping for our next big quake. Thanks.

It's been said many times before and it will happen sometime but all signs point to the fact that we better be prepared.

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/l...504-story.html

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A 2008 U.S. Geological Survey report warned that a magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault would cause more than 1,800 deaths, 50,000 injuries, $200 billion in damage and severe, long-lasting disruptions. Among the predicted problems: The sewer system could be out of commission for six months.
I thought I would start this thread to share the News article but also for people to discuss strategies and preps for a BIG quake that can do some real damage.

If/when we get "the big one" chances are water and electricity will be gone for some amount of time. Do you have plenty of water/food? Batteries for flashlights and radios? A meeting place for family members if you're not together when it happens? Fire extinguishers? because the fire dept. will probably be busy or unable to reach you.

If anyone has any suggestions, tips or info please feel free to add them.

Be ready and stay safe!

Last edited by TRyan; 05-04-2016 at 08:06 PM.. Reason: Add quote from article
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Old 05-04-2016, 09:09 PM
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Interesting simulations. I always thought that Long Beach was one of the relatively safer areas in soCal as far as earthquakes go but that second simulation sure doesn't support that.

I'm a native Angeleno and the survivability of a major quake was just too low for me to be comfortable living there any longer. A big quake along the San Andreas will impact more than just California. In addition to nationwide economic consequences of lost food production, I think a significant number of people would leave either because they've become homeless or they don't want to live through another earthquake. There could be an influx of people looking for food, jobs, and homes into major population centers in Arizona, Nevada, Utah, and New Mexico. I have told my friends who remain in soCal that if they become quake refugees and they can get here, they can stay with me as long as they want.
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Old 05-04-2016, 09:27 PM
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If it A big one, then the numbers look pretty good. If it is THE big one, the figures are way low. The loss of the infrastructure, pretty much all of it, will kill hundreds of thousands within a few days for lack of potable water. Violence will kill many more as local resources are fought over. And many of the escape avenues will be blocked, legal or not, to keep refugees out of places that become overloaded very quickly. (I know people here in Reno that plan to block Donner pass in the event of a major emergency.)

Six month minimum supplies of EVERYTHING, kept well hidden, and a very low profile existence while using them up on location, with a very good escape plan that does not use major roads.

Just my opinion.


Just my opinion.
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Old 05-04-2016, 10:23 PM
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In my area it's not too much different to prep for this than anything else. Having the usual supplies at the ready are going to be good enough where I am, I would suppose.

If I lived in LA or any city for that matter I would have the bug out routine down pat and be ready to roll before the earth stopped shaking.

Thanks for sharing this article, it is good to think about how real of a threat this is from time to time.
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Old 05-05-2016, 12:05 AM
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Major metropolitan areas would be chaos..
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Old 06-02-2016, 05:00 PM
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I have 4 plans and multiple routes mapped and kept in my GHB with me at all times. Still freaks me out though.
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Old 07-01-2016, 12:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerry D Young View Post
If it A big one, then the numbers look pretty good. If it is THE big one, the figures are way low. The loss of the infrastructure, pretty much all of it, will kill hundreds of thousands within a few days for lack of potable water. Violence will kill many more as local resources are fought over. And many of the escape avenues will be blocked, legal or not, to keep refugees out of places that become overloaded very quickly. (I know people here in Reno that plan to block Donner pass in the event of a major emergency.)

Six month minimum supplies of EVERYTHING, kept well hidden, and a very low profile existence while using them up on location, with a very good escape plan that does not use major roads.

Just my opinion.


Just my opinion.
I am still in California and was stunned by what you said about THE Big one. Low survivability??? I have not heard that. I am a prepper and have been preparing to be ready to bug out of town if and when necessary but I never assumed an earthquake would be the cause of needing to evacuate Dodge! --Can you please elaborate?
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Old 07-01-2016, 01:26 PM
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I have no illusions what a large quake would do in the populated areas of so cal. Things would go south very fast...lack of water, food when the roads are destroyed and trucks cannot bring in goods. People who will no doubt panic and create mayhem when thier sheltered world is rocked. The power grid would be knocked out in large areas. Fortunately I live on the edge of the high desert and have several escape routes and have located several year round springs if I should have to go overland. I do not think that the numbers predicted are even close. If it was to hit during prime time commute time it would be devastating considering the many gridlocks everyday and no way to get any where in a timely fashion.

Some say prep for a minimum of 6 months. There is no way I or any common sense thinking person would stay in place if everything around you was destroyed. Aside from supplies becoming a issue as well as water you will have to deal with the gangs that come around trying to take what you have. You can only hold out so long before superior numbers overwhelm you. Do not think for a moment law enforcement going to help you either. They will be too busy with other things.
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Old 07-02-2016, 09:58 PM
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All of my family is in SoCal, wife, kids and grandkids....preparing for the inevitable "Big One" has been a serious concern for me. Getting everyone out of town, to me, is just not a realistic prospect. Going east is out, I-10 and I-15 will be impassable and/or gridlocked and there is nothing but desert that way anyway. West is ocean.....that leaves North or South (I-5) for 10+ million people, good luck with that! Most will stay put, I can't imagine the challenge that will be associated with the logistics needed to get food and water to 10-15 million people. Here's my take:
1. You better have a family plan.
2. You must have a GetHomeBag for every car and every family member.
3. The family MUST BE capable of sheltering in and be self sufficient for 60+ days.
4. You better have the means to protect yourself.
Standing in some line with thousands of others to get a gallon of water would be a disaster for a family, I'm not going to be that guy!!
But...as bad as it will be, it's still a regional event and help will eventually arrive.
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Old 07-02-2016, 11:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CHRISTINE16 View Post
I am still in California and was stunned by what you said about THE Big one. Low survivability??? I have not heard that. I am a prepper and have been preparing to be ready to bug out of town if and when necessary but I never assumed an earthquake would be the cause of needing to evacuate Dodge! --Can you please elaborate?
@CHRISTINE16,

I do not speak for Jerry D Young, however, can recommend you read the following which no doubt parallel's some of Jerry's thinking. In particular, please review the timeline on the last 2 pages.

http://www.trucking.org/ATA%20Docs/W...ca%20Stops.pdf

In essence, most geographically-bounded areas contain extremely limited on-hand supplies of food and water, as well as gasoline, medical supplies, and countless other commodities. Consumer commodities are continually re-stocked, sometimes more than once a day, by steady shipments of replacement commodities (food, gasoline, water, etc.)

Given a sufficiently-significant disturbance, this re-stocking will fail to occur. Among the many reasons would be:
  • infrastructure damage to roads, bridges, overpasses, etc.
  • lack of gasoline or diesel to refill truck fuel tanks;
  • lack of drivers to drive trucks - they are at home dealing with emergencies in their own families;
  • hijacking of trucks/cargo at delivery points by desperate groups;
  • absence of adequate law enforcement to prevent thefts, vehicle-jacking, load-jacking, or other in-transit transportation security requirements;
The simple facts are that whatever is on-hand within most communities will be all of these commodities that will exist until broken gas mains, ruptured in-ground gasoline storage tanks, toppled overpasses and bridges, and so forth are all repaired and put in order to allow the trucks to replenish supplies.

Therefore, scarcity of basic essentials would be common to any significantly disruptive earthquake. Since most people in most communities do not prep, this means there would be incredible panic and "need" (defined however,) and given the level of entitlement among many people in most communities, there is a high likelihood of violence to seize increasingly scarce commodities.

Moreover, law enforcement would be stretched thin. Imagine a scenario in which an organized group of individuals decided that the most efficient and effective means of ensuring group survival was to take over a suburb, then go house to house looking for pharmaceuticals, canned goods, drugs, alcohol, firearms, or whatever. Few homeowners are in any position to resist a group consisting of 7 to 10 or more armed individuals forcibly entering their homes. The outcome is, within reason, pretty predictable.


Given a community turning upon itself, ...."the best way to survive an emergency is to not be there when one happens".


And this doesn't even consider the likelihood of raging fires in many suburbs, when hot water tanks come unfastened from walls and topple over, breaking gas lines and sparking residential fires throughout many neighborhoods simultaneously.

There will quite likely be disaster-caused breakdowns as well as human-caused breakdowns in the wake of a major earthquake, and between both of them, remaining in the midst of it all may not be a prudent decision.

Just some thoughts.
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Old 07-03-2016, 01:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CHRISTINE16 View Post
I am still in California and was stunned by what you said about THE Big one. Low survivability??? I have not heard that. I am a prepper and have been preparing to be ready to bug out of town if and when necessary but I never assumed an earthquake would be the cause of needing to evacuate Dodge! --Can you please elaborate?
Grotius summed it up pretty well. But me being me, I will add my twenty-seven cent's worth.

Water is scarce in LA and surrounding area. After 3 days or so without water people begin to lose mental acuity and can barely function. They become vulnerable to every conceivable bad thing that can happen, if they do not get so desperate that the drink bad water that winds up killing them.

What potable water there is will be fought over with deadly force as parents try to save their children and themselves, and other individuals try to save just themselves. Water related deaths will be high.

Add in the untreated serious injuries and the death toll goes up.

As I said in my original post, many of the major ways out of the area will be blocked by nature or humans. If evacuation is a plan, one needs to look at some of the alternate routes. Highline right of ways, railroad tracks, hiking trails, etc.

And it is unlikely a vehicle, except some very high capability amphibious ones, will make it.

If you do run across flowing streams and have purification gear you are good on water, but if you have to cross it, with or without water in it, you need the means to do so, as even if a bridge still stands, it might not be safe, or you might be avoiding those places people congregate for fear of losing your supplies.

Add in the complications if trying to move through the mountains in the winter, or the deserts in the summer, and things get even harder.

Now, I am talking about the cataclysmic big one, 8 or over. It could still be about as bad in lesser quakes, in the areas worst damaged, but at least some help should be avaI label within a week to ten days.

I do not know if this answered your questions. If not, ask what you want and I will try to answer.

Just my opinion.
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Old 07-03-2016, 02:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jerry D Young View Post
As I said in my original post, many of the major ways out of the area will be blocked by nature or humans. If evacuation is a plan, one needs to look at some of the alternate routes. Highline right of ways, railroad tracks, hiking trails, etc.

And it is unlikely a vehicle, except some very high capability amphibious ones, will make it.
This is an important point that I would reiterate. Having preps to shelter in place and wait out the right time to go is very important, but having MULTIPLE routes planned and PRACTICING those routes is the best plan one can have. If I lived in the city I'd be thinking about that a whole lot.
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Old 07-07-2016, 08:51 PM
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I keep a cabin tent, cots, propane, propane stove,have close to 80 gals of water(and growing), the typical canned goods, a small garden (it's all I can manage right now) and working on a gas genny to keep the beer fridge going. One of the biggest things that stood out to me after the Northridge quake were people waiting for water and all the tents that popped up in front yards for a few days, in some cases weeks. I was a kid when that happened and for some reason I remember feeling much safer in the tent than I did the house lol. All of these things are kept in a small shed dedicated to them. Quake preps aren't much good if you can't get to em. It's not a lot, but it's a start.
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Old 07-07-2016, 09:26 PM
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I have two brother-in-laws that are geologists. They tell me that that privately, many geologists say that if the San Andreas goes, expect an 8.0 to as much as a 10. Everything within 100 miles of the epicenter will be down. The freeways will be impassable, lots of gas fueled fires and the water pipes bringing a good portion of the water to SoCal will rupture. You aren't going to bug out unless you go on foot. It's going to affect the entire state, not just a region.
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Old 07-08-2016, 12:37 AM
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I saw an article about a lot of seismic activity on the SanAndres Fault, last week. I'm in SC, but I watch it closely. It seems to me that the hardest part would be ingress/egress from metro areas. After the last "big one", I began to pay more attention. My stepmom' sister lives near the fault. I worry about her, she's up in age and has VERY limited income and mobility.
How can I help her/encourage her to start more prepping for it?
I'm a whole country away, and don't know her neighbors. I feel the need to help, yet I also feel helpless.


The old guy
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Old 07-24-2016, 03:24 PM
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The key here is to have an exit plan, a retreat set up in advance already stocked with food and water, within 100 miles of your home. In my case, I have a business that I'm operating and cannot afford to move out to my retreat full time, but I visit there and work on preparations on the week ends. Currently, I'm responsible for a large family who would not be able to walk the distance to the retreat; therefore, I'm in the process of researching whether to exit with motorcycles, motorized scooters or just the traditional bicycle approach---it's frustrating being the only one in my household that is prepping
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Old 07-24-2016, 05:29 PM
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it's frustrating being the only one in my household that is prepping

I understand and agree with that 1001%!



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Old 07-24-2016, 05:38 PM
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They've been predicting this thing for 50 years, what makes you think it'll happen in the next year as opposed to another 50 years from now? What has changed other than we're more aware?
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Old 07-13-2017, 06:19 AM
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I live in the High Desert too, about 10 miles from the San Andreas fault it's self. My sister thinks we will be far enough away and will be OK. She has lost her mind, lol she's crazy. There won't be a wall or building standing anywhere near the High Desert. Most likely we'll drop off into the Pacific, like in the movie 2012. I'm just trying to prep as much as I can before it hits. Food, supplies, H2O, extra medical supplies etc. I hope, but I don't think we'll have enough time to get out. You said you had a few exits? For exits I can only think of a few. Big Bear would be out due to it being a dormant volcano (hopefully it won't go active) the 15 Frwy, Pearblossom Hwy or CA. Aqueduct. I've just thought of following the power lines to Las Vegas on 3 wheelers or dirt bikes. Being this close to the fault you'd need that type of transport. One other, the best really, Apple Valley Airport. Very small, way out in the middle of now where, not a lot of hystrical people. Hysteria will be the second biggest danger. I know a few pilots out there, enough to by me and my sister to fly "Up, Up and Away!" There is a High Deserts Preppers Club out of Hesperia, CA.. look it up on the net. Best of luck to us all!
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Old 08-06-2017, 10:02 PM
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We'll simply be staying right where we are.

Our house is firmly anchored to a concrete foundation dug into bedrock which has less resonant reverbration than lowland silt like there is in Santa Monica for example.



Traffic is heavy under the very best of conditions, and I already know how it will be from the 1994 quake where it took 4 hours just to get from the Valley out to Saugus, where I was living at the time.

I refuse to suffer the indignity of dying in traffic.


Greg
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