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Navy seals (team 6) investigated in death of 3rd special forces member. [_]ni/\/\og General Discussion 47 11-15-2017 12:39 AM

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Old 11-03-2018, 07:53 AM
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Exclamation Navy SEALs Explain Why Overplanning Can Be Dangerous



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I found this rather interesting & couldn't help but think how it could pertain to some preppers.



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Old 11-03-2018, 08:03 AM
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Pretty much what many of us have been saying about not scenario planning.

....I wish I could still get Helo resupply on-demand though.
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Old 11-03-2018, 08:54 AM
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Life is what happens while we are making other plans.
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Old 11-03-2018, 10:06 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kmussack View Post
Avoid paralysis by analysis.
Donít focus so hard on the process that you lose sight of the product.
A good leader must first learn to be a good follower.
Nothing new here.
In today's finger-pointing, litigious, CYA-based society, doers are an endangered species. If they survive complaints from within, they then face stifling regulation, punitive taxation, and frivolous lawsuits from without. That's the only reason why Jocko and his friends can make even one red cent peddling what should be common sense.
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Old 11-03-2018, 10:08 AM
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I've watched a batch of "prepping advice" on YouTube. Decided that those who make prepping videos for everybody are basically full of bs.

Too many variables for a "one size fits all" approach. Now how does being a SEAL make somebody a prepping guru? Being a SEAL makes him an extra ordinary soldier and adventurer. Pretty obvious that everybody needs to maintain flexibility and adaptability in their game plan.

Variables that effect logical prepping:
1) Age
2) Discretionary income
3) Family
4) Local threats - hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes etc.
5) Urban or rural
6) Hot climate vs cold climate. Some deal with both.
7) Health
8) Personal skill set
9) How much land, if any, is controlled. What are land features?
10) On the power grid or off grid solar?
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Old 11-03-2018, 10:33 AM
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As a cop in a high crime city, I quickly learned that "PLANS" usually fall apart as soon as the first shot is fired!
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Old 11-03-2018, 11:21 AM
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"Everyone has a plan until they get hit"

- Iron Mike Tyson
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Old 11-03-2018, 03:40 PM
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Sometimes the plan comes all together and works too.
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Old 11-03-2018, 06:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Exarmyguy View Post
Sometimes the plan comes all together and works too.
I mean look at our stunning success in the Middle East after Iraq Pt. II. A veritable model of shining democracy. All achieved at such a low price as well.

National debt is now much bigger and better than ever. We have the best debt. You'll love it.
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Old 11-04-2018, 10:48 AM
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Perfect is the enemy of good.

Trying to cover every base before you get started simply leads to inertia.

As has been mentioned there is a need to plan but at some point you simply have to start taking action.

Where preppers get into over planning is that (for the most part) shtf never happens and they thus have too much time to over think things.
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Old 11-04-2018, 12:10 PM
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I tend to listen to advice from navy SEALs giving it more consideration than most other sources

Keeping this to what this site is about it is really difficult to balance what is over planning and/or ignoring something important.

We all have areas of ignorance and it is a fool who believes he can master all aspects of prepping for any end scenario

Improving certain skills that we happen to enjoy (for me combat training/shooting) is the easy part.
Improving my gardening skills or research into natural plants in my area etc well, not so interested and I need to do better all while making sure it does not interfere with enjoying the great life God has already blessed me with.

What good is it to prepare for something that may not happen and miss the good life that is happening?
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Old 11-04-2018, 12:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kmussack View Post
"A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan executed next week."

George S. Patton
Dang it, we must be on the same wave length. "Avoid paralysis by analysis." and, now this.

Being aware of the intent will get you farther than the plan. If a plan goes to **** at least you can still work towards the goal.

Al
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Old 11-04-2018, 12:47 PM
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Battle plans rarely survive first contact with the enemy. The one who comes out alive is who can adapt best to the scenario at hand.
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Old 11-04-2018, 03:20 PM
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"SEAL" & "Planning" are two words that traditionally don't go together in the same sentence. From first hand observation across 30 years. Never really been their strong suit.

The hat trick is to understand how to properly allocate your available time and resources for conduct of planning & analysis. Too much complexity and you fail (or run out of time while chasing perfect solutions). Too little and you also fail. But of the two, too little planning is the one that will kill you (or stop forward progress) most often. The counter-point solution to "Overly Complex" is not "Winging It". You have to find the Goldilocks Zone.

A good rule of thumb for conducting emergent (brand new) mission planning is to use 1/3 of your available time to analyze & plan (and also brief that plan to subordinate leaders). Whether this time is measured in minutes or weeks. This gives them the remaining 2/3 of available time to conduct their own analysis/planning, rehearse events, procure logistical support, make coordinations, and brief their own subordinates. It also provides a buffer of time for the worker bees to react to inevitable changes before actual launch of the mission at hand. It's the kind of general rule that applies whether you're deliberately planning to attack some hilltop... or meeting the grand opening target date for a retail store.

An old US military adage has it that: "A Good Plan is merely a Basis for Deviation."

Meaning that you always expect your carefully crafted plan to change on the ground. Because... Stuff Happens. But you plan for the eventualities you can reasonably foresee, the problems you can anticipate, the timeline available, and the most likely events or outcomes. If you've done your homework and applied thoughtful analysis, the bones of your intent will withstand the winds of change. Everyone will still understand what the job to be accomplished is, regardless of how actual events play out. Regardless of how the original plan flexes during execution. People are able to handle Branches & Sequels without becoming paralyzed or overcome by events. A method of planning typified by decentralized control, delegated authorities, and encouragement of lower level initiative (as long as it supports attaining the goal). Because everyone understands the broad outlines of the previously well-crafted and war-gamed plan.

If you have no plan (or merely made a lazy effort to create a crappy one), you'll quickly find yourself depending upon Hope & Luck for positive outcomes.

Which reminds me of two more old US military maxims:

1. Hope is Not a Course of Action

2. Better Lucky than Good. Better still... Both.
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Old 11-04-2018, 04:14 PM
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"SEAL" & "Planning" are two words that traditionally don't go together in the same sentence. From first hand observation across 30 years. Never really been their strong suit.
Don't know which seals you've been talking to, maybe the stolen valor kind, but most of their missions are meticulously planned. As has been pointed out, most plans don't survive first contact. The bin laden mission is a perfect example of both instances. They made a replica compound of the one bin laden was staying at & trained for several days, might've even been a couple weeks raiding the compound. One thing they did though was instead of erecting a solid wall like the compound had, they used fence. On the night of the raid, the solid walls inside the compound caused prop wash they weren't expecting & caused one of the black hawks to live up to it's nick name "crash hawk". So now their first plan of attack was already out the window, but amazingly enough, they had trained for similar scenarios, not to mention their extensive training all around afforded them the ability to improvise, adapt, & overcome. The guys at the tip of the spear are there not because they just hang out & be bad ass when the time comes, they train like mad, train some more, keep training till they're about to break, then train right on past that. Same goes with their mission planning, they train for how they want the scenario to go down, then they try to train for as many conceivable possibilities that would force them to alter the initial plan. They don't just go into hostile territory with the plan of winging it.
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Old 11-04-2018, 05:12 PM
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Don't know which seals you've been talking to,... but most of their missions are meticulously planned.
Real ones. For most of my adult working life. From SEAL Platoon Level to Task Unit to CJSOTF to Theater SOC. From 1981 (my first encounter) through 2011 (my last). At peace and in war. As in I've worked directly shoulder to shoulder with them at all ranks, from fresh out of BUD/S junior enlisted swine to CMDCM to Rear Admirals. Including my personally working for SEALs (as my bosses), having SEALs work directly for me (as their boss), having SEALs assigned to the same Combined/Joint Staffs I was assigned to (as a SOF planner BTW), and having SEALs attached to my ODA (or vice versa) down at tactical level. Or just having worked out of shared basing space, for months or years at a time, with my unit working next door to theirs (mere yards away).

Their missions are not always meticulously planned. Over the years, a lack of detailed operational analysis & contingency planning has killed quite a few of them. That and violation of basic tactical principles. I don't need to read books or watch movies about SEALs. Seen 'em up close and in person while working. Often enough to have a pretty sound grasp of strengths and weaknesses.

They're just flesh and blood people from my former line of work. Not imaginary cartoon characters. I've hosted a house full of passed out drunken SEALs more than once. I've spent nights bunked up at their deployed locations. Gone to shooting schools with them (all of us students). Guys I've partied downtown with. Guys I've convoyed with through IEDs in Iraq. Guys I've been under fire with. Not really a big deal to me. Just part of my normal work landscape for many years.

They're good folks. Warriors and patriots. Don't ever bet beer money against them on a rubber boat paddling race. But they ain't generally good planners. If you'd ever seen a SEAL Platoon conduct formal mission planning and briefback, you'd understand what I'm talking about.

SEALs simply don't enjoy an institutional reputation as planners within the USSOCOM community. They never have. Due to cultural and hierarchical differences in how they select, promote, and train their personnel. It's an institutional thing. Sorry to pop your bubble. That's just the way it is.

They ARE however, much better planners than the average bear reading this forum. And yes, SOF planning skills and operational experience translate nicely over to the Prepper Concept. Across many facets of prepping, quite directly as a matter of fact.
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Old 11-04-2018, 05:20 PM
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Real ones. For most of my adult working life. From SEAL Platoon Level to Task Unit to CJSOTF to Theater SOC. From 1981 (my first encounter) through 2011 (my last). At peace and in war. As in I've worked directly shoulder to shoulder with them at all ranks, from fresh out of BUD/S junior enlisted swine to CMDCM to Rear Admirals. Including my personally working for SEALs (as my bosses), having SEALs work directly for me (as their boss), having SEALs assigned to the same Combined/Joint Staffs I was assigned to (as a SOF planner BTW), and having SEALs attached to my ODA (or vice versa) down at tactical level. Or just having worked out of shared basing space, for months or years at a time, with my unit working next door to theirs (mere yards away).

They're just flesh and blood people from my former line of work. Not imaginary cartoon characters. I've hosted a house full of passed out drunken SEALs more than once. I've spent nights bunked up at their deployed locations. Guys I've partied downtown with. Guys I've convoyed with through IEDs in Iraq. Guys I've been under fire with. Not really a big deal to me. Just part of my normal work landscape for many years.

If you'd ever seen a SEAL Platoon conduct formal mission planning and briefback, you'd understand what I'm talking about.

SEALs simply don't enjoy an institutional reputation as planners within the USSOCOM community. They never have. Due to cultural and hierarchical differences in how they select, promote, and train their personnel. It's an institutional thing. Sorry to pop your bubble. That's just the way it is.

They ARE however, much better planners than the average bear reading this forum. And yes, SOF planning skills and operational experience translate nicely over to the Prepper Concept. Across many facets of prepping, quite directly as a matter of fact.
Well sorry to burst your bubble of contradictions. First you say seals don't actually do any mission planning, then claim you regularly attend mission plannings. I actually was in the military & trained with & had friends that went S.F. & ranger bat. My kid just waived off his slot for ranger school cause he doesn't want to miss his deployment. (dumb I know) My old man is friends with one of the the R.I.'s for ranger school, now talk about planning, that's huge in ranger school. So which is it anyway, seals DON'T actually plan missions, or they DO? I can hardly wait.
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Old 11-04-2018, 07:10 PM
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No, I did not say that SEALs don't do mission planning. I said they're not very good at it. And they aren't. Which is why I don't buy generic planning advice from former NSW guys hustling a buck.

Who knows? Maybe I taught one of your friends as an Instructor or Unit NCO... since I served in both a Ranger Battalion and SF. Plus Ranger School, SFQC, & all the usual 11 & 18 MOS career path events from '77-'12. For most of my adult life, nearly everyone I knew was a Ranger, Green Beret, SEAL, USAF STS, etc. Those were the folks present for duty on every day I showed up for work.

So planning is a huge thing in Ranger School? You don't say...
Where do you think that 1/3 - 2/3 planning rule I mentioned comes from?

Looky here, I'm not trying to crap on your thread. I think the topic is interesting and worthy of discussion. I just found myself laughing when I saw those frogmen in the video talking about mission planning. Thus, my inside-baseball comment. I'm not part of an easily impressed outsider crowd when it comes to the world of SOF. I'm more in tune with the actual realities of that line of work... not the fiction. Because I spent my entire career doing it. Every single year of it until the day I retired.

Now I'm just a retired FAG (Former Action Guy) and my body is about as broken as you'd expect. But I still possess deep experience with (and opinions about) planning. Whether formal or ad hoc. Something I did frequently (as a job) from Squad to Theater Levels in the military. And as a Risk Management executive in civilian life.

Don't bore me with your military bona fides and I won't inflict mine upon you. That stuff makes people's eyes glaze over. Let's go back to the topic you brought up instead. If you wanna compare military notes... PM me.

------------------------------

A common sentiment around here (Survivalistboards) is that it's best to not plan around specific scenarios. Instead, plan for capabilities. For instance, having stocks of food and water supports almost any scenario. Likewise being armed. Or having alternate means of providing light, power, heat, transport, etc. Focusing on only one specific threat (whether zombies or raiders) can be a futile dive down a rabbit hole. Because the thing that's actually most likely might be something else entirely. You wind up throwing too much time, effort, and money against one favorite event... and not enough attaining generic capabilities good for nearly all events.

In the main, I agree with the "acquire capabilities" philosophy. However...

Some things may be unique to your location and situation. And highly likely. I live on a high mountain. If all the ice on the planet melts, I'm still high and dry. Tsunamis and flooding are simply not part of my preparedness equation. But I live in a place where blizzards are a never-fail annual event. So much of my "prep" planning orbits around that consideration. Winter specific supplies. Snow tools. Winter shelter. Winter vehicle preps. Because it's a routine threat.

Broad & Basic Capabilities are important and useful. The smart direction to throw most money and planning effort. But not the same way that a storm shelter is useful for someone living in the USA's Tornado Alley. Because those tornadoes are routine and the threat is very likely. Stored food, water, backup power, etc. mean nothing if you can't survive that very specific scenario. The one where a near or direct hit destroys your place, scatters your preps and kills you. I grew up there and have been through several. A storm shelter is near the top of the list for prepping if you live in Tornado Central.

So there is actually a place for Scenario Planning. One based upon probability and impact (up to worst possible outcomes) for an event with a proven historical track record. The kind of thing that military units & businesses apply a Threat Assessment Matrix to.

So it's good to adopt capabilities that can handle a spectrum of events (small to large, common to unlikely), but... you still have to plan for dangerous specific scenarios that are actually likely. Sometimes a few of them. The ones you can nearly bet money on taking place due to your specific location or circumstances.

Nor can you say that all prep plans need to be simple. If you had billionaire money, you could conceivably set out to prep for nuclear war or massive global effect asteroid impact. The planning would of necessity be complex. Very complex.
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Old 11-04-2018, 07:23 PM
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Don't bore me with your military bona fides and I won't inflict mine upon you. That stuff makes people's eyes glaze over. Let's go back to the topic you brought up instead. If you wanna compare military notes... PM me.

------------------------------
LOL, so you started spouting off your military cred's, when i menition I have a bit of military exp as well, I'm not supposed to "bore" you with them? OK! No need to PM you, most guys like you usually PM me asking to leave them alone cause they are getting exposed for one thing or another, whether it's something like contradicting themselves, sometimes many times over in one thread, or not having quite the back ground they claim or whatever & it's mess up their online persona they are trying to portray, so fair enough I'll let you get on with that. Also, as far as planning for SHTF, I frequently point out that planning for a mad max or ZPAW scenario is not smart, at least if that's all you plan for. I advocate, many times in this forum alone, starting to prep for things that have, & almost certainly will happen in your area again, whether its hurricanes, blizzards, earthquakes, etc. etc. Then start adding on from there as you see fit and/or can afford it.
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Old 11-04-2018, 07:29 PM
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Quote: "...I wish I could still get Helo resupply on-demand though."


Yes, this. When I was a medic nervous in the service, I never had to worry about 'can I afford it'. These days - it's almost all the time 'can I afford it' or 'what do I trade off here'.

Not to denigrate serving soldiers in any way, but paying the full freight for one's own way (and for one's family) is a stress all of its own. Not of course in any way to be compared to getting shot at :-0
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