How long will the — stick to the fan ? - Page 2 - Survivalist Forum
Survivalist Forum

Advertise Here

Go Back   Survivalist Forum > >
Articles Classifieds Donations Gallery Groups Links Store Survival Files


Notices

Disaster Preparedness General Discussion Anything Disaster Preparedness or Survival Related

Advertise Here
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 11-12-2019, 03:55 PM
Observer's Avatar
Observer Observer is offline
Survivor
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Latimer County (Red Oak) Southeastern Oklahoma
Posts: 5,898
Thanks: 13,098
Thanked 5,958 Times in 2,634 Posts
Default



Advertise Here

Perhaps a Trump reelection but definitely the next democrat President. Liberals want blood. Our blood. The best offense is a good defense and the reverse! Once this tinderbox is ignited it will be very hard to find a liberal around my area. Most liberal enclaves are surrounded by white conservatives as well! Starve them into extermination. No making nice with them. Curb stomp them out of existence. The left has NO honor.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Observer For This Useful Post:
Old 11-12-2019, 08:28 PM
merlinfire's Avatar
merlinfire merlinfire is offline
Survivor
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 20,030
Thanks: 32,739
Thanked 45,128 Times in 13,206 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Observer View Post
Perhaps a Trump reelection but definitely the next democrat President. Liberals want blood. Our blood. The best offense is a good defense and the reverse! Once this tinderbox is ignited it will be very hard to find a liberal around my area. Most liberal enclaves are surrounded by white conservatives as well! Starve them into extermination. No making nice with them. Curb stomp them out of existence. The left has NO honor.
this is a "fun" scenario to imagine but at the end of the day i know two things

1) liberals trying to make a violent play would directly benefit conservatives politically and

2) they haven't nearly enough balls to try
Quick reply to this message
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to merlinfire For This Useful Post:
Old 11-12-2019, 08:55 PM
Cuteandfuzzybunnies's Avatar
Cuteandfuzzybunnies Cuteandfuzzybunnies is offline
VIP Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Posts: 1,038
Thanks: 0
Thanked 1,402 Times in 603 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Florida Jean View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuteandfuzzybunnies View Post
The difference is that a chemist , even a guy who hasn’t got his BS in chemistry , can make almost anything with the synthesis written out. Manufacturing drugs in mass would require process engineers to run the factories , but those factories may still exist depending on the scenario.

But things like surgery can’t be learned from a book.

And btw surgical robots don’t do surgery they are tools just like a scalpel. I had robotic surgery. The surgeon operates the robot.

The surgeon operates the robot -- for now...

***********

50% of the population dead. Pretend this event happens when the USA population is 340,000,000. 50% mean 170,000,000 people left spread over 50 states and various territories. [calculate the figures for your state or city].

90% of the population dead. 34,000,000 over 50 states plus. "calculate for your state.

[there will be only few top ranked brain or heart surgeons left. But you can console yourself in that how many people in 34 million need brain surgery? This is assuming they are correctly diagnosised and flown to wherever in the country the brain surgeon is.]

Let's randomly assume that a US farmer produces enough food to feed 100 people [it is more]. But to do that the farmer needs fuel and fertilizer [and for some crops, harvest labor].

So a refinery will have to be running somewhere. That will have to be staffed. We will assume it produces enough fuel to run itself. But the fuel has to get to the farmers. Truckers? Maybe National Guard to run protection convoys. The truckers and their trucks have to be provided for and maintained. Ditto the National Guard. So the fuel gets to the farms. Harvest time comes -- food gets transfered via truck, train or barge. More people that need to be provided for.

[The easiest way to think about it is for every soldier in the field there needs to be 8 to 10 soldiers providing for them. And this doesn't consider the farmers to make the food for the chow line, or the gun powder, or putting the gunpowder into cartriges, making the weapons, making the uniforms, boots, backpacks, etc etc whom are civilians. Modern society is very complex. Old armies just raided the houses and farms around them.]

50% dead you will need 1,700,000 farmers! Assuming using present day techniques. And only after volcano non-summers.

90% dead you will need 340,000 farmers! Assuming using present day techniques. After volcano non-summers.

Calculate the refinery workers, the truckers, truck repair, tires, convoys, trains, barges and the folks that plan such.

Oh, and then you have to process the food! Then deliver it!

[Some idiot might decide to turn the farms into 'collectives'. Once the farmers realize they no longer own the land figure on yields dropping by 50 to 90%. Maybe 0% like what happened in Venuzuela].

Then there are water treatment plants that have to be run. And sewer plants. And maybe folks would like to have electricity. You not only need a power source, but a maintence force.

I assure you -- people will choose food over hospitals. They will choose food over water [mostly because they can't 'see' bad water]. They will choose food even over electricity.

******

Now to properly depress you. Google 'functional illiteracy'. Read multiple different sources because they all test to different definitions of 'functional illiteracy'. Toss which ever percentage you prefer into the remaining population. And that's what you have to work with with such high levels of deaths. It won't go back to normal for those death rates.
Less people will need brain surgery at first but once the population grows back that will change. It’s easy to grow the population in a few generations. We won’t forget how to produce food.

The problem is if everybody who has a certain skill dies nobody can teach it.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Cuteandfuzzybunnies For This Useful Post:
Old 11-13-2019, 06:07 AM
Jim from 28DaysLater's Avatar
Jim from 28DaysLater Jim from 28DaysLater is offline
....
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Posts: 1,158
Thanks: 1,706
Thanked 1,495 Times in 703 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Florida Jean View Post

Oh, Billy Bob just needs a stent. Where does that stent come from? The gloves the staff will use? The parts for whatever testing machines that need maintained? The anthesthia drugs? The pain killing drugs? Antibiotics? Oxygen tubes? IV tubes etc? The chemicals used to clean the operating room ahead of time. And the 9000 other things that is needed for the operation?
Interesting thread...

Dispensing with OP's first concern for a sec ("how long does SHTF last"), his point about skilled people dying off is something that concerns me a lot, too.

When I think about it, I often end up noticing Florida Jean's point, that there are actually numerous entire industries supporting those modern specialists with equipment and supplies.

A typical experience with a doctor--- You go see him, and he listens to your story, does a few basic diagnostics on you. He's a guy who has like a flowchart of medical conditions in his head, and he's applying that flowchart to the facts he gathers. Maybe he has to look something up, and then he prescribes a medicine for you.

But what if there were not only no more pharmacies, but no more companies making the medicines, and no more industry obtaining and making the ingredients for the medicines? It's a pretty safe bet that a particular doctor knows nothing about making a medicine he prescribes for you-- especially in our day, when medicines are proliferating more and more, and getting more and more high-tech.

Or consider if the entire medical lab testing industry is gone.

So if you've just saved doctors--- then depending on what the medical problem is, maybe you haven't done enough. And that may even very often be true. Imagine an auto mechanic who can only tell you what's wrong with your car, but can't fix it. That's what a doctor may be like, if he can't perform medical tests and if the medicines he knows you need no longer exist.

Then consider that same problem duplicated many, many times over, across many other fields besides medicine.

From one point of view, a prepper skill like reloading is fantastic. We're impressed with ourselves because of something like that all the time. And probably it's true that many people who will survive for a while, and who don't have that skill, would be a lot better off if they had it.

But if you change your focus a little bit--- it's like almost nothing. It's just reloading, and not a solution for the problems that are going to happen with health care, or the other kinds of skilled professions OP is thinking of.

Another thing to consider is that, if it's a TEOTWAWKI situation, all those very skilled people who survive will have to become teachers, whether they counted on it or not. What they have will be too good to let die off. The person may not appreciate it, but there will be pretty strong reasons for having them take on students not long after SHTF. Also the students may be people you wouldn't expect, like people a lot younger or a lot older than a college student.

Despite all this, perhaps Americans can still succeed really well at survival. But the problem of loss of technically skilled people is so big, that even to save 50% or 60% of the very important know-how--- if we're talking about people who actually know it, and not just books they can learn it from--- would probably be an astoundingly well-done job. What it might take to get in that ballpark is something like post-apocalyptic cooperation between groups living in different regions of the continent. I.e., finding every last person left alive, loaning them out from your team, etc.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to Jim from 28DaysLater For This Useful Post:
Old 11-13-2019, 01:13 PM
Cuteandfuzzybunnies's Avatar
Cuteandfuzzybunnies Cuteandfuzzybunnies is offline
VIP Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Posts: 1,038
Thanks: 0
Thanked 1,402 Times in 603 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jim from 28DaysLater View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Florida Jean View Post

Oh, Billy Bob just needs a stent. Where does that stent come from? The gloves the staff will use? The parts for whatever testing machines that need maintained? The anthesthia drugs? The pain killing drugs? Antibiotics? Oxygen tubes? IV tubes etc? The chemicals used to clean the operating room ahead of time. And the 9000 other things that is needed for the operation?
Interesting thread...

Dispensing with OP's first concern for a sec ("how long does SHTF last"), his point about skilled people dying off is something that concerns me a lot, too.

When I think about it, I often end up noticing Florida Jean's point, that there are actually numerous entire industries supporting those modern specialists with equipment and supplies.

A typical experience with a doctor--- You go see him, and he listens to your story, does a few basic diagnostics on you. He's a guy who has like a flowchart of medical conditions in his head, and he's applying that flowchart to the facts he gathers. Maybe he has to look something up, and then he prescribes a medicine for you.

But what if there were not only no more pharmacies, but no more companies making the medicines, and no more industry obtaining and making the ingredients for the medicines? It's a pretty safe bet that a particular doctor knows nothing about making a medicine he prescribes for you-- especially in our day, when medicines are proliferating more and more, and getting more and more high-tech.

Or consider if the entire medical lab testing industry is gone.

So if you've just saved doctors--- then depending on what the medical problem is, maybe you haven't done enough. And that may even very often be true. Imagine an auto mechanic who can only tell you what's wrong with your car, but can't fix it. That's what a doctor may be like, if he can't perform medical tests and if the medicines he knows you need no longer exist.

Then consider that same problem duplicated many, many times over, across many other fields besides medicine.

From one point of view, a prepper skill like reloading is fantastic. We're impressed with ourselves because of something like that all the time. And probably it's true that many people who will survive for a while, and who don't have that skill, would be a lot better off if they had it.

But if you change your focus a little bit--- it's like almost nothing. It's just reloading, and not a solution for the problems that are going to happen with health care, or the other kinds of skilled professions OP is thinking of.

Another thing to consider is that, if it's a TEOTWAWKI situation, all those very skilled people who survive will have to become teachers, whether they counted on it or not. What they have will be too good to let die off. The person may not appreciate it, but there will be pretty strong reasons for having them take on students not long after SHTF. Also the students may be people you wouldn't expect, like people a lot younger or a lot older than a college student.

Despite all this, perhaps Americans can still succeed really well at survival. But the problem of loss of technically skilled people is so big, that even to save 50% or 60% of the very important know-how--- if we're talking about people who actually know it, and not just books they can learn it from--- would probably be an astoundingly well-done job. What it might take to get in that ballpark is something like post-apocalyptic cooperation between groups living in different regions of the continent. I.e., finding every last person left alive, loaning them out from your team, etc.
When I say how long does it last I really mean how long until something like a western economy comes back and things are “normal “ again. Think of Europe after ww2. It took a long time for their economy to recover , decades really. There was food rationing after the war for some time.

But with the brain drain issue , That effect could last decades or even centuries.

There are also other economic effects. Think of the housing market. Assume that it’s not a nuke , which would destroy houses. Say we get a pandemic. If half the people die , and Almost everybody currently has a place to live , that means housing will be over produced significantly. Same with office space , etc.

After the Black Death society was completely changed. Some people just moved into their neighbors ( better ) Jones because while families died with no heirs.
There was not a huge science industry then , but the clergy was changed by the influx of younger people in senior positions . After the older men died.

The brain drain can have some positive effects. New young thinkers often take more risks and solve problems in creative and novel ways without older prejudices. But the lack of skills is a set back too.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to Cuteandfuzzybunnies For This Useful Post:
Old 11-13-2019, 03:14 PM
arleigh arleigh is offline
Survivor
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: southern california
Posts: 11,830
Thanks: 6,806
Thanked 11,243 Times in 5,749 Posts
Default

When I was a kid the fear of russia's dropping a bomb, had us doing bomb drills hiding under our desks as though that actually had an effect in saving our lives. 1959-60. People were building bomb shelters and prepping then. om was learning canning and we did a lot of things our grand parens did learning to go back to simpler ways. ignificant'y less stressed
1980s we still in the throws of war and people were guesstimating the Lord's coming due to current trouble in the world.
WE have significant'y more information going around in this world today some good some not so good.
If it wasn't for the news media and the internet you would be less stressed.
But we have it, and you are stressed because of it not saying it' is bad or good , it just is.
People operate with a certain disconnect listening to the news ,not believing it's real because it is not happening to them.
No one can provide any amount of certainty what is going to happen next, we postulate predict ,speculate with the little information we have and prepare accordingly.
if a volcano erupts under my house no one knew about ,how do you prepare for that?
people have been lost down sink holes in their home so it is not impossible.
You can live in fear or you can just view life as an adventure, and learn to act, not panic.
Quick reply to this message
The Following User Says Thank You to arleigh For This Useful Post:
Old 11-14-2019, 08:23 PM
Gordon Randal's Avatar
Gordon Randal Gordon Randal is offline
Honyock
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Location: Missouri
Posts: 447
Thanks: 11
Thanked 987 Times in 322 Posts
Default

How long will it last?

Western society is a many layered machine. Without all the layers working society doesn't work.

Anything that shut down the power grid shuts down the whole society quickly because without power it is very difficult get fuel so nothing moves. The manufacturing plants can be in perfect condition but don't run.

Nuclear reactors, Refineries and chemical plants don't turn on and off with a switch. There are very detailed procedures required to start up each plant. Lose the people with experience it might never start.

Engineers know how to design and build things but without materials manufactured to the design it becomes very difficult.

The longer the trigger event lasts the more people that will die and the longer it will take to "restart" the society.

Any long term event creates cascading events that make things worse and delays recovery.

The dark ages lasted about 500 years because multiple events led to worse and worse conditions. The collapse of the Roman Empire, the little ice age, the black plague all contributed to delayed recovery.

The Roman collapse removed the Roman Legions from across Europe leaving no law enforcement and wide spread banditry. The black plague killed 30% to 60% of European population. The little ice age killed additional millions.

A major loss in all this was education. People were reduced to staying in place and scratching out a bare existence with no time or strength to spare.

Turn the power out here for six months and America could be in the same situation.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to Gordon Randal For This Useful Post:
Old 11-15-2019, 02:36 AM
Jim from 28DaysLater's Avatar
Jim from 28DaysLater Jim from 28DaysLater is offline
....
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Posts: 1,158
Thanks: 1,706
Thanked 1,495 Times in 703 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gordon Randal View Post
Western society is a many layered machine. Without all the layers working society doesn't work.

Anything that shut down the power grid shuts down the whole society quickly because without power it is very difficult get fuel so nothing moves. The manufacturing plants can be in perfect condition but don't run.

Nuclear reactors, Refineries and chemical plants don't turn on and off with a switch. There are very detailed procedures required to start up each plant. Lose the people with experience it might never start.

Engineers know how to design and build things but without materials manufactured to the design it becomes very difficult.
Great examples...

The USA has strategic oil and grain reserves. I wonder why we don't also have lots of spare stuff for the grids set aside.

I've read a few times that the power plants are unique, and that equipment for them is unique, custom made, huge, very expensive, would take a very long time to replace, and would be shipped over great distances with great difficulty. If it's such a huge problem, I wonder why they don't set themselves up to have a much easier time of it.

I know it would be very expensive, but it's worth it.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Jim from 28DaysLater For This Useful Post:
Old 11-15-2019, 11:33 AM
querulous's Avatar
querulous querulous is offline
Threepin'
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Everywhere
Posts: 3,781
Thanks: 9,830
Thanked 6,831 Times in 2,180 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuteandfuzzybunnies View Post

nuclear war

Pandemic

Economic collapse national or global

Astroid strike

How long before things are back up and running ?

Most of these really shouldn’t last that long. A year or two.


Wut?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Quick reply to this message
The Following User Says Thank You to querulous For This Useful Post:
Old 11-15-2019, 07:13 PM
Observer's Avatar
Observer Observer is offline
Survivor
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Latimer County (Red Oak) Southeastern Oklahoma
Posts: 5,898
Thanks: 13,098
Thanked 5,958 Times in 2,634 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by merlinfire View Post
this is a "fun" scenario to imagine but at the end of the day i know two things

1) liberals trying to make a violent play would directly benefit conservatives politically and

2) they haven't nearly enough balls to try
Correct but it all balances on their lack of intelligence.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Observer For This Useful Post:
Old 11-15-2019, 08:21 PM
Florida Jean Florida Jean is offline
Hunter
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 1,354
Thanks: 1,822
Thanked 3,181 Times in 1,025 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuteandfuzzybunnies View Post
When I say how long does it last I really mean how long until something like a western economy comes back and things are “normal “ again. Think of Europe after ww2. It took a long time for their economy to recover , decades really. There was food rationing after the war for some time.

But with the brain drain issue , That effect could last decades or even centuries.

There are also other economic effects. Think of the housing market. Assume that it’s not a nuke , which would destroy houses. Say we get a pandemic. If half the people die , and Almost everybody currently has a place to live , that means housing will be over produced significantly. Same with office space , etc.

After the Black Death society was completely changed. Some people just moved into their neighbors ( better ) Jones because while families died with no heirs.
There was not a huge science industry then , but the clergy was changed by the influx of younger people in senior positions . After the older men died.

The brain drain can have some positive effects. New young thinkers often take more risks and solve problems in creative and novel ways without older prejudices. But the lack of skills is a set back too.
There is also the mental/pyschological issues of a serious death rate. Athens physically recovered from that plague [est. 30% death rate] to the prominence they had had before. They had lost their 'zip'.

Of course, with a plague, nowadays, most people world-wide would suffer the same [maybe not North Korea since no one really wants to go there -- they might be able to maintain a personal quarantine].

Yes, inheritance of wealth was a big cause of the social changes in the middle ages. Every related person to you died in a hamlet and suddenly, instead of just being a hired hand for the rest of your life, you own a plow, plow oxen, dozens of chickens, a milk cow or two, some kitchen pottery, kitchen pots, sciefes [sp?], misc. work tools including a valuable wood axe, etc. etc. plus a choice of houses and rights to farm X amount of land.

No need to build houses, apartment buildings or office buildings or even stores. Also no need to build more cars, tvs, pots and pans, ovens, bikes, shoes, clothes, etc. etc. until everything rots/wears out.

And money -- will that have any 'value' or be extremely inflated. The insurance companies will go bankrupt or say 'act of God' and not pay out. But the banks -- if things allow them access to their electrical data and mostly electrical funds. And companies going out of business. No stock market? No 401K's.

And what sort of jobs will remain? What percentage of the population can do those remaining jobs? Want to do those remaining jobs?

Will you need a wheel barrel [wheel barrel obtained from your dead neighbors garage] of cash to buy a loaf of bread? Where will you get the 'cash'. Or if credit cards, debit cards still exist, how much will that loaf of bread cost? $1? $10? $100? $1000?

How will the federal government, state government, county government, possible city government 'tax' people? How will water/sewer companies [the ones I'd hope would start first, particularly in cities] bill people? Can you bill people who can move from house to house?

How will the electric company bill people? [should it be able to keep functioning]. And then, how will phone companies bill folks?

The farmers, how much and by how will they be paid? [ditto truckers, trains, refineries].

The shorter the event, the less infrastructure damaging the event, the sooner things could get working.

But it won't be like before for how ever long.

Say people in cities are being fed by the government via soup kitchens and food distribution. How would the government find a person they 'need'. The brain surgeon standing in line for a loaf of bread and jar of peanut butter will not look any different from former cashier at Walmart.

We will probably lose the very 'top' of the uber skilled folks for the simple matter that society can't support their profession with the necessary technical backup. [yes, the heart surgeon can still be a doctor...].

But we will regain that [depending upon how serious whatever is] a lot faster than say the post-roman period. Say it takes 100 years. At what level was brain surgery 100 years ago? That top of the line brain surgeon/heart doctor didn't exist 100 years ago! Yet, some how they learned their skills for now. And those skills will be relearned again and much faster if the technology that supports their skills remains even if in limited form.

I'd rather see the cateract eye doctors [and lasik doctors] kept in operation as they do more work and provide more benefits for more people in that '100 year period'. If antibiotic production sites could be kept in operation we'd only be say 70 years or less 'behind' but save many more lives.


Ditto with vaccines. Want to live in a world with no rabies vaccines for animals or people? No mumps, chicken pox, or measles and a dozen other diseases -- which would also save a lot of lives of babies in utero. That's not considering fun stuff like Smallpox, polio and say ebola. And the flu vaccine [let's pretend you believe they work]. With the present vaccines a mild year with varying percentages of the population take them -- 20,000 deaths. With no flu vaccines would a higher death rate every year just make things worse in the post-event world? What good would it do for that brain surgeon to survive [and teach the next generation] if he/she croaks from the flu in year 4 post-event? Or gets bit by one of the many feral dogs/cats who is also rabid?

Post-roman world used the roman roads, bridges and viaducts for centuries before they figured out/decided to build their own roads, bridges and viaducts. They did keep the Roman arch and used it in construction. And construction exploded in the middle ages with the great cathedral building spree.
Quick reply to this message
The Following User Says Thank You to Florida Jean For This Useful Post:
Old 11-16-2019, 09:54 AM
Measuretwice Measuretwice is offline
Prepared
 
Join Date: Jun 2017
Posts: 328
Thanks: 805
Thanked 549 Times in 200 Posts
Default

I look at this differently than most. I see it one of 2 ways.
1. The event and after effects will kill a large percentage. The most who will survive will be the young and healthy. So the need for the heart transplant and diabetes shots will be smaller. Humans will have a Darwin leap in health.
2. The other type of event might kill a large portion of the population but it will be in specific areas, so some countries, or states or cities might be spared. I don't see a group of friends standing around and just half of them die. I don't think it will happen that way.
Just my opinion. Have a great disaster. Good Luck
Quick reply to this message
The Following User Says Thank You to Measuretwice For This Useful Post:
Old 11-16-2019, 12:00 PM
Idaho Survivalist Idaho Survivalist is online now
Hunter
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 1,522
Thanks: 294
Thanked 1,660 Times in 780 Posts
Default How long will it last

A few minutes ago, I heard an online commentator talk about at least 3 vaults in the world containing info for use in later times. He said one was built and is underground in Georgia, and Microsoft will soon have one in the Arctic. I have read earlier of the one in the Norwegian Arctic. Maybe the rich and powerful know more about the disaster timeline than we do.
Quick reply to this message
Old 11-16-2019, 07:51 PM
Quiet Man's Avatar
Quiet Man Quiet Man is offline
Tryin' every day
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Central NY
Posts: 235
Thanks: 13
Thanked 460 Times in 147 Posts
Default

What good is the Microsoft vault?
I'm sure that if I were to get the arctic, I highly doubt that Zucky would let me in to read a few back issues of "Off Grid Living".

Depending on the type of event, how would a Georgia farmer get seeds from the secure doomsday seed vault that is located on an island off of Norway?

The assets spoken of , water treatment plants, power plants, hospitals are only as good as those that are in control of the facility.
Quick reply to this message
The Following User Says Thank You to Quiet Man For This Useful Post:
Old 11-16-2019, 09:08 PM
Camelfilter's Avatar
Camelfilter Camelfilter is online now
Hunter
 
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: State of Jefferson XX
Posts: 1,446
Thanks: 4,472
Thanked 2,127 Times in 978 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Quiet Man View Post
What good is the Microsoft vault?
I'm sure that if I were to get the arctic, I highly doubt that Zucky would let me in to read a few back issues of "Off Grid Living".

Depending on the type of event, how would a Georgia farmer get seeds from the secure doomsday seed vault that is located on an island off of Norway?

The assets spoken of , water treatment plants, power plants, hospitals are only as good as those that are in control of the facility.
Excellent points, and also IMO, it’s outstanding that these “vaults” are there.

From a macro point of view.

Similarly, from a micro point of view, it’s excellent that folks on here take individual responsibility for themselves/family.

If some calamitous event were to occur it’d be a good thing to have the seedlines & knowledge “put back”. Could be something as “simple” as a new blight, where unaffected “old seed strain” stock could be grown out. etc.

Absolutely get your point about “if something” happened & those whom had access to such pass away enmass. However, better to have and not need, than to need and not have...
Quick reply to this message
The Following User Says Thank You to Camelfilter For This Useful Post:
Old 11-16-2019, 10:30 PM
William Ashley William Ashley is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 185
Thanks: 15
Thanked 79 Times in 59 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuteandfuzzybunnies View Post
I know this depends on what the nature of the crisis is. But what are some thoughts for each type? How long before things are back up and running ?
Seriously..

nuclear war = life forever changed on the planet.. depends on the scale but atleast a couple decades wherever it is hit overall massive impacts small scale exchanges maybe not so much each city hit will be a 1% to 2% draw on the economy.

Pandemic = dependso n scale, if we are talking millions of dead look to about a 1% drain on the economy for every few million that die.

Super Volcano = depends where it hits.. but say Yellowstone this will take out about 25% of the global economy until it adjusts but a major impact. --- probably about a decadee

Economic collapse national or global - usally for about 7 years.

Political unrest - this is ongoing depends on where and why.

Astroid strike depends on the size, any large scale will be atleast a couple years , any big strike consider maybe a couple hundred years if not longer.


Quote:
Most of these really shouldn’t last that long. A year or two.

My biggest concerns are lasting economic effects, which could last decades , and brain drain. Brian drain seams like the worst. There just aren’t that many engineers , surgeons , etc. if we lost a bunch of population I am not sure how we get some of that skill set back ?
seriously most of these will have long lasting effects way more than a few years.
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-02-2019, 08:16 PM
Observer's Avatar
Observer Observer is offline
Survivor
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Latimer County (Red Oak) Southeastern Oklahoma
Posts: 5,898
Thanks: 13,098
Thanked 5,958 Times in 2,634 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by merlinfire View Post
this is a "fun" scenario to imagine but at the end of the day i know two things

1) liberals trying to make a violent play would directly benefit conservatives politically and

2) they haven't nearly enough balls to try
You are absolutely correct. Homeland Security has an 800 Rat Your Neighbor number. And demos are rats. Even if they have to lie about it. This only will ever end 1 way.
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-02-2019, 08:21 PM
Cuteandfuzzybunnies's Avatar
Cuteandfuzzybunnies Cuteandfuzzybunnies is offline
VIP Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2014
Posts: 1,038
Thanks: 0
Thanked 1,402 Times in 603 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by William Ashley View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuteandfuzzybunnies View Post
I know this depends on what the nature of the crisis is. But what are some thoughts for each type? How long before things are back up and running ?
Seriously..

nuclear war = life forever changed on the planet.. depends on the scale but atleast a couple decades wherever it is hit overall massive impacts small scale exchanges maybe not so much each city hit will be a 1% to 2% draw on the economy.

Pandemic = dependso n scale, if we are talking millions of dead look to about a 1% drain on the economy for every few million that die.

Super Volcano = depends where it hits.. but say Yellowstone this will take out about 25% of the global economy until it adjusts but a major impact. --- probably about a decadee

Economic collapse national or global - usally for about 7 years.

Political unrest - this is ongoing depends on where and why.

Astroid strike depends on the size, any large scale will be atleast a couple years , any big strike consider maybe a couple hundred years if not longer.


Quote:
Most of these really shouldn’t last that long. A year or two.

My biggest concerns are lasting economic effects, which could last decades , and brain drain. Brian drain seams like the worst. There just aren’t that many engineers , surgeons , etc. if we lost a bunch of population I am not sure how we get some of that skill set back ?
seriously most of these will have long lasting effects way more than a few years.
The effects of WW2 lasted decades. BUT even in the most war torn areas it wasn’t “collapsed “ for that long.

So I understand the lasting effects of say a mass die off from a pandemic could linger for generations BUT it’s not going to be without rule of law for that long.

I guess my original post was more concerning how long until things get semi normal. Maybe. It 100% back , but ROL , no mass starvation , food being produced on a mass scale, people going to jobs , school , etc.
Quick reply to this message
Old 12-07-2019, 12:32 PM
woozy's Avatar
woozy woozy is offline
Dismember
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Texas
Posts: 1,434
Thanks: 1,665
Thanked 3,310 Times in 909 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by oneeyeross View Post
The disasters that I am most worried about - it wouldn't necessarily be a global issue. The two I am most concerned about are the Cascadia Subduction Zone, which would locally be years to recover from the damage, and the ensuing loss of life, etc., (this could also affect Japan, the way it did in 1700 or so), and Mt Rainier, St. Helens, Adams, Hood blowing up my direction - again, locally horrendous and takes years to recover...
People have a very poor understanding of this. If Cascadia unzips, we are in SHTF, all of us. For a long, long, time.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...really-big-one
Quick reply to this message
The Following User Says Thank You to woozy For This Useful Post:
Old 12-07-2019, 10:50 PM
Sky1950's Avatar
Sky1950 Sky1950 is online now
Dios y Tejas
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Texas
Age: 69
Posts: 6,082
Thanks: 36,340
Thanked 17,914 Times in 4,766 Posts
Default

The possibilities of variations are almost limitless.

So personally I targeted a one year with no electrical power as my starting point. I will have almost 1 year (nearly there) of food stuffs, millions of gallons of good, relatively clean, water to filter and am building the housing now. Using solar and gas. This is for my 10 person family.

I have 66 acres up in the woodland boondocks that I just finished timbering. The clean up from this logging mess will probably take 3 years before I can get it to pasture condition. Stocking 1.5 Acres of pond with channel cat as well.

If I chose to look at what specific event, my mind would just swirl and I wouldn't get anything done.
Quick reply to this message
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Sky1950 For This Useful Post:
Reply

Bookmarks



Quick Reply
Message:
Options

Register Now

In order to be able to post messages on the Survivalist Forum forums, you must first register.
Please enter your desired user name, your email address and other required details in the form below.
User Name:
Password
Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.
Password:
Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.
Email Address:
Gender
Insurance
Please select your insurance company (Optional)

Log-in

Human Verification

In order to verify that you are a human and not a spam bot, please enter the answer into the following box below based on the instructions contained in the graphic.



Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may post new threads
You may post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:04 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Optimisation provided by DragonByte SEO (Lite) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2019 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
vBulletin Security provided by vBSecurity v2.2.2 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2019 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Copyright © Kevin Felts 2006 - 2015,
Green theme by http://www.themesbydesign.net