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Old 03-04-2020, 02:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Ghost863 View Post
as of 11:43 a.m. EST this morning 3/3/2020, There are only 106 cases in the U.S. and only 6 deaths according to John Hopkins University.

Not saying you are purposely sending out wrong Info just reporting what I am seeing right now.
One day later:

149 cases
11 dead
9 recovered

We are spot on with regard to trajectory.
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Old 03-04-2020, 06:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Nomad, 2nd View Post
That's nice.


WHO says 3.4, and If I had to bet in general i'd say they were more likely to underestimate vs over.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-...y-thought.html
get

And yes, it is more lethal and has a much higher R0 than the flu.


Australia and Singapore are both in "summer" (still spreading)
Ann d vaccinations take years. (If we get one within the next 12 months its a bioweapon they have been working on.)
they are taking deaths/reported cases. Since we know that many cases are mild to the point that people wont bother to get tested, I suspect that it will end up being high. But there is no way to know until it is over.
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Old 03-04-2020, 06:42 PM
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Originally Posted by txprep View Post
they are taking deaths/reported cases. Since we know that many cases are mild to the point that people wont bother to get tested, I suspect that it will end up being high. But there is no way to know until it is over.
So your saying your better at estimating unreported cases than the scientists and data crunchers at WHO?

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Old 03-04-2020, 06:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Madoc View Post
Again, I'm hoping to be wrong. 40 years after AIDS we have no vaccine. A century+ after dengue we have no vaccine. Hep C - nope. Common cold - nope. But hey, "maybe the horse will learn to sing"...
Some viruses are constantly mutating. Seasonal viruses mutate their outer "spike" or nucleocapsid proteins that the immune system uses to recognize the virus.

We can easily make a vaccine for any given strain, but when that strain mutates we can no longer recognize it (or may only partially recognize it).

If there is a predominant strain of covid-19, then a vaccine is definitely possible. Viruses will tend to mutate to be less lethal as lethality stops the virus from spreading as widely. So if covid-19 mutates, it is likely to mutate to be less lethal and more like a regular cold virus.
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Old 03-04-2020, 06:46 PM
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Default Life Care Center - Responders

First, a quote from leadcounsel:

Quote:
Originally Posted by leadcounsel View Post
...This more easily spread than the flu, extremely long asymptomatic incubation periods, far more serious, and far more deadly. It stands a good shot of just wiping out entire communities (homes for the elderly, daycares, schools, etc.)...
From what I can find, there were ~25 First Responders to the Life Care Center for at least one case of the beer virus. Of those ~25, 12 are now experiencing flu-like symptoms. The media is great isn't it?

At the moment, I am wondering if there might be 3 more deaths from this occurrence.

That would put transmission at ~50% and ~25% mortality rate.

If the numbers continue to be accurate for the next 10 days, and the reporting at least plausible, we may finally have a much better idea what the "real" numbers are.
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Old 03-04-2020, 06:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Nomad, 2nd View Post
So your saying your better at estimating unreported cases than the scientists and data crunchers at WHO?

No, they arent estimating reported cases. They are reporting facts. You are misinterpreting those facts to mean something different. Lead counsel is reporting a ratio - deaths/total resolved cases, those are facts. He is then calling it "mortality rate". No one reports mortality rate using that method so he is causing confusion.

It absolutely is possible for the rate to somehow be higher, but if I was to wager I would bet on the actual rate to be substantially lower.

I would be happy to wager with you.
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Old 03-04-2020, 07:01 PM
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Originally Posted by txprep View Post
...Lead counsel is reporting a ratio - deaths/total resolved cases, those are facts. He is then calling it "mortality rate". No one reports mortality rate using that method so he is causing confusion...
Since there is no established definition of "recovered", what number methodology would you prefer to use?

Hey, you are recovered, says whomever in San Antonio. Whoops, come back, your test came back that you are still positive!

Just like with Ebola, sources give crappy numbers. So long as dealing with the crappy numbers is consistent, that is the best one can do.
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Old 03-04-2020, 07:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sprig View Post
what number methodology would you prefer to use?
I posted this a few days ago here:

https://www.survivalistboards.com/sh...8#post20104218

Quote:
The parameter most are excluding from their mortality calculation is TIME.

The dead up to today are not the result of the infections up to today - so those numbers cannot be used together to calculate mortality.

On average it takes the virus about three weeks from testing positive (late in the incubation period) to kill infected persons (ie those people it does kill).

So if you want an estimate of mortality, then divide the (current) death numbers by the infections from three weeks ago.

So China is at about 3000 deaths as of today and about three weeks ago the number of infections reported was 37,000 (see about page 239 of the main thread).

Those 3000 deaths are the result of those 37,000 infections.

So the mortality rate is about 8.1%

That is also similar to SARS (which was 11% worldwide).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe...atory_syndrome

Since those that take longer than the average time to die are not yet in the "today" deaths number, (like SARS did) the running tally of mortality rate may rise a bit by the end of the epidemic.
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Old 03-04-2020, 07:07 PM
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Originally Posted by txprep View Post
No, they arent estimating reported cases. They are reporting facts. You are misinterpreting those facts to mean something different. Lead counsel is reporting a ratio - deaths/total resolved cases, those are facts. He is then calling it "mortality rate". No one reports mortality rate using that method so he is causing confusion.

It absolutely is possible for the rate to somehow be higher, but if I was to wager I would bet on the actual rate to be substantially lower.

I would be happy to wager with you.
Who's "actual rate"?

WHO?
CDC?
Numbers posted here?
What If we don't agree?

If you'll go back a ways and look you'll find that I've been saying I've been cutting those numbers (fact or not) in half for some time now....
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Old 03-04-2020, 07:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hardcalibres View Post
I posted this a few days ago...
I know that. It is good information to share with others that do not know that.

The problem is that I don't have the information to determine the average of the TIME variable; and I don't think anyone does. I calculated my own TIME constant for the Ebola situation; the math was complex.

However, in WA state, the TIME variable seems to be that it can be extremely short in some situations.

So long as anyone uses the same crappy numbers with the same methods, it won't be perfect, but it'll run.
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Old 03-04-2020, 07:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sprig View Post
I know that. It is good information to share with others that do not know that.

The problem is that I don't have the information to determine the average of the TIME variable; and I don't think anyone does. I calculated my own TIME constant for the Ebola situation; the math was complex.

However, in WA state, the TIME variable seems to be that it can be extremely short in some situations.

So long as anyone uses the same crappy numbers with the same methods, it won't be perfect, but it'll run.
The compressed timeline in WA is more to do with the only recently emerged testing capability.

Those cases have been cooking a lot longer than the reports suggest.
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Old 03-04-2020, 07:33 PM
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I'm feeling fortunate that apart from calculating - carefully - drug dosages, and knowing what capacity NOS bottles my V8s need, other math is so hard for me that y'all are doing the spadework and I can just read it. Seriously, thank you!
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Old 03-04-2020, 09:08 PM
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Originally Posted by SamSnead View Post
The scariest thing about this virus is...the misinformation! Folks would be wise to listen to this person, txprep. He is one of the few who is actually getting the maths right and his logic is on point.
I'll just leave this right here....

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/he...a1f8d1dcf78209
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Old 03-04-2020, 09:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nomad, 2nd View Post
I'll just leave this right here....

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/he...a1f8d1dcf78209
So they released the deadlier Version 2.0 ......

made in china has such a nice ring to it now.....
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Old 03-04-2020, 09:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hardcalibres View Post
The compressed timeline in WA is more to do with the only recently emerged testing capability.

Those cases have been cooking a lot longer than the reports suggest.
Care to provide any link that collaborates your statements?
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Old 03-04-2020, 09:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nomad, 2nd View Post
I'll just leave this right here....

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/he...a1f8d1dcf78209
The Misleading Arithmetic of COVID-19 Death Rates
https://www.cato.org/blog/misleading...19-death-rates

Sound familiar? Txprep has already made this point.
Quote:
Originally Posted by txprep View Post
No, they arent estimating reported cases. They are reporting facts. You are misinterpreting those facts to mean something different. Lead counsel is reporting a ratio - deaths/total resolved cases, those are facts. He is then calling it "mortality rate". No one reports mortality rate using that method so he is causing confusion.

It absolutely is possible for the rate to somehow be higher, but if I was to wager I would bet on the actual rate to be substantially lower.

I would be happy to wager with you.
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Old 03-04-2020, 09:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SamSnead View Post
The Misleading Arithmetic of COVID-19 Death Rates ...
Sound familiar? Txprep has already made this point.
You should really go apply for a political position in Italy regarding your superior knowledge of this topic.
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Old 03-04-2020, 09:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sprig View Post
Care to provide any link that collaborates your statements?
1) A week ago the CDC had done<1000 tests
2) The incubation period is up to 27 days - hence person to person spread starts slow and then accelerates.
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Old 03-04-2020, 09:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hardcalibres View Post
...2) The incubation period is up to 27 days - hence person to person spread starts slow and then accelerates.
I guess you can tell that to the twelve(12) first responders that started having symptoms as of yesterday.

Was going to provide a link; news appear to be getting shut down.
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Old 03-04-2020, 10:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SamSnead View Post
The Misleading Arithmetic of COVID-19 Death Rates
https://www.cato.org/blog/misleading...19-death-rates

Sound familiar? Txprep has already made this point.
Yes. It sounds exactly like the post I already answered in post 43.
https://www.survivalistboards.com/sh...=939386&page=3
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