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Old 05-28-2020, 02:17 PM
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Default How Many Will Die By End of December



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Think it would be interesting to have forum members go on record as to what they expect the CoVid-19 numbers to be on 12/31. Not asking for best case or worst case scenarios. Asking what you think is most likely scenario (whatever that may mean to you).

How many Covid-19 deaths by 12/31?

How many CoVid-19 deaths in December.

My guesses are 400,000 total and 100,000 in December (ramping up from 30,000 in October and 60,000 in November).

I hope its less, but I think these numbers are more probable than not.
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Old 05-28-2020, 02:18 PM
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Either not many more or lots.

I have no idea which and perfer to take action off of data, not speculation.
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Old 05-28-2020, 02:42 PM
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I've been reading up on the Spanish Flu from 1918/19 and even though this isn't the flu it sure seems to me the world is following in it's footsteps really, really close, almost exactly.

The flu hit in the early part of March 1918 and by Oct we had 200,000 dead in the US. I hope not but I wouldn't be surprised after watching everyone out partying over the Memorial Weekend. I can see it. We are at 102,391 just a minute ago when I checked here. https://ncov2019.live/data By the end of 1919 there were 675,000 dead here in just the US. But i'm getting ahead of myself. Let's see what Dec brings and if they actually get a vaccine out that works. But I will officially say at least 225,000 to 250,000 by the end of Dec and i'm being very conservative on that.

If they don't get on the ball and get some kind of vaccine it's gonna be a whole lot worse next year.

Just 1 link on the Spanish Flu https://www.history.com/topics/world...8-flu-pandemic

and there are a bunch of Youtube videos if you want to watch them.
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Old 05-28-2020, 03:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Nomad, 2nd View Post
Either not many more or lots. I have no idea which and perfer to take action off of data, not speculation.
We know it's gonna be more than we want and I prefer to err on the side of caution and do something now in case it get's a whole lot worse. Because I believe it will before it get's better.

We have a small reprieve I believe for the next month. While that's happening my son and I are ramping up on buying more meats to can if we can find some reasonably priced and hopefully working out the kinks in our garden and getting more seeds. We're good on TP for a good long while.

But I think those of us who can should do some more stocking if you have the means to do it. And if it dosen't get any worse, no harm no foul. Just means better prepared for the long run. Just my thoughts.
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Old 05-28-2020, 04:00 PM
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It's math. The US is at around 55 new confirmed cases per day with 5.91% of confirmed cases dying. So far we've had ~2 million confirmed cases. They say 35% may be asymptomatic and never get confirmed. More will be symptomatic and not get tested either. So 350,000,000 - 1,750,000 - 1,750,000/.35 = 343,300,000 left to be infected. Maybe assume another 40,000,000 or so caught it and got over it already

300,000,000 should be enough to keep us going at around 50 confirmed cases per day per million. So 12/31-today = 217 days. 217*50*300 =~3,300,000 new confirmed cases with approximately 192,000 additional deaths.

Ish. As long as the healthcare system isn't overloaded we should end the year at around 290,000 deaths. Another 330,000 will be hospitalized for several weeks between now and the end of the year.

I haven't seen an indication that numbers are dropping since we leveled off 40 days ago. Now that we're opening up the case rates could increase but unless we have a nationwide NYC event, we'll probably stay stable at 5% of the confirmed cases dying. Volume of cases will determine the number of deaths. Case rates and death rates may go up and down, but the end numbers in a couple years will be the roughly the same.

The US has been at around 5 to 5.9% of the confirmed cases dying for over 40 days now.

My guess is the floor will be 300,000 deaths by year end. Eventually we'll run out of older people.
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Old 05-28-2020, 04:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DRH.1979 View Post
Think it would be interesting to have forum members go on record as to what they expect the CoVid-19 numbers to be on 12/31.
To what end? By the end of December nobody will have died from anything else.
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Old 05-28-2020, 05:12 PM
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I have gone on record here as saying 150,000 by the end of the year. However, that was assuming the lockdown and other precautions would still be in place. Given the lifting of most restrictions, I will have to go with who knows, the sky's the limit.
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Old 05-28-2020, 05:16 PM
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To what end? By the end of December nobody will have died from anything else.
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Old 05-28-2020, 06:22 PM
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Initially I was conserned about a more deadly second wave this fall.
I now think this virus has become less deadly, and by far most people are asymptomatic.
In the seven months till 12/31, I figgure another 30-40,000 will die. 140k total.
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Old 05-28-2020, 06:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hick Industries View Post
Initially I was conserned about a more deadly second wave this fall.
I now think this virus has become less deadly
, and by far most people are asymptomatic.
In the seven months till 12/31, I figgure another 30-40,000 will die. 140k total.
I have no opinion (haven't been paying attention/trying to determine) but thankfully that IS the pattern of most viruses.
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Old 05-28-2020, 07:45 PM
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I'm not sure how many will die but the government (Feds, State and County) better take a hard look at the checks they are handing out and double check their welfare hand outs with death certificates. A lot of worthless relatives are going to be cashing checks of dead kin folks.
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Old 05-28-2020, 08:11 PM
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Default Two Predictions for the Price of One...

In rough numbers it took the US 3 months to reach the first 50,000 deaths, and 1 month to exceed the 2nd 50,000.

However, both cases and deaths appear to have peaked...for now...with new cases per day below 20,000 for 3 days and new deaths per day still fluctuating but let's say averaging around 1000 per day. At that rate, 30,000 deaths per month for the next 7 months would put you over 300,000 deaths total by the end of the year. But I really think that number will keep trending down, in spite of foolishness and the odd massive setback. (And CFR's will continue to fall as testing reveals ever larger numbers of confirmed cases.)

So I will predict another 150,000 deaths, for a total of around 250,000 Americans. But I hope I am way off, and it is much less.

I know the "wave" paradigm is a popular one, both among epidemiologists and the public, and that it has good historical precedents. However, I would like to go out on a limb and challenge it on the basis that the "waves" we have seen in the past (whether seasonal or idiopathic like the 1918 events) likely reflect human behaviour both exaggerated by mass transportation and unmodified by public health measures like handwashing, masks, and social distancing (yes I know these were known and practiced to some extent, but you can't tell me that troop movements and workplaces worldwide observed these measures as we are seeing today). I think we will see that awareness of transmission principles will start to change the way all respiratory viruses spread.

So while we're predicting, my further prediction is that, rather than having a 2nd wave, COVID-19 will start to resemble a bad wildfire season, where outbreaks will start locally almost at random. Some will be put out immediately, whilst others will explode out of control for awhile--still mostly locally--but eventually die down, only to spring up somewhere else. (Local governments which excel in aggressive testing, tracing and isolation of contacts of new cases will have the best success.) Of course travelling spreaders--like go-to-work spreaders-- will be major vectors for new outbreaks, but the pattern will still resemble fires in a fire-prone area rather than a wave. Just thinking out loud.
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Old 05-28-2020, 08:15 PM
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"he US has been at around 5 to 5.9% of the confirmed cases dying for over 40 days now.

My guess is the floor will be 300,000 deaths by year end. Eventually we'll run out of older people."

That and the terminally ill has been their plan all along. The Health Care system on the verge of collapse and they finally figured out Get Rid of the Old Folks and the sick.
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Old 05-28-2020, 08:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ambos lados View Post
.... the pattern will still resemble a fires in a fire-prone area rather than a wave.
For reference there is a meat packing plant in Iowa just across the border. Enough workers live in my state that the county they live in has 1,650 cases. The 2 counties surrounding that one have 62 cases total between them.

When offices open, they will act like meat packing plants.
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Old 05-28-2020, 08:22 PM
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Until they can actually prove the numbers are accurate.... itís all bull**** and made up numbers.
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Old 05-28-2020, 08:24 PM
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I bet the CDC gets cancer deaths wrong too.
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Old 05-28-2020, 08:26 PM
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I bet the CDC gets cancer deaths wrong too.
Yes...cause they are counted as Covid deaths
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Old 05-28-2020, 08:28 PM
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A person in a hospital is dying of cancer.....terminal. Moved to hospice care... tests positive for Covid.... dies over night.... what do you think they put on the death certificate?
Cancer....or Covid?
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Old 05-28-2020, 08:40 PM
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A person in a hospital is dying of cancer.....terminal. Moved to hospice care... tests positive for Covid.... dies over night.... what do you think they put on the death certificate?
Cancer....or Covid?
I'm sure there may be systemic biases (media attention, money, exhaustion of personnel), in favour of labelling fatalities as due to COVID-19 regardless of the primary condition which led to death.

But on the other side, this disease is leaving many survivors weakened and damaged...in their kidneys, cardiovascular system and pulmonary function. We hear a lot about PRE-existing conditions, but now we are going to have a patient population left with POST-existing conditions as they struggle to recover from severe COVID-19 complications. In coming years, we can expect that many of these patients will die of these POST-existing conditions, which were really a result of their brush with this virus.

Oh, it probably won't completely average out, but I, for one, am grateful that HCW caught up in the danger, overwork and drama of this situation can still manage to keep some kind of decent records to inform our future decision-making.
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Old 05-28-2020, 08:49 PM
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2.8 million give or take.
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