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Old 05-28-2020, 08:21 AM
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NPR and Salon (and a few other agencies) cite a study that says only half of Americans would get a COVID-19 vaccine.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav..._campaign=news

https://www.salon.com/2020/05/27/stu...munity-levels/

Colt may be right. The amount of stupidity that Americans demonstrate is enough to earn Darwin Awards all around. Maybe encouraging massive spreading of the virus and the deaths of millions IS the only way we're going to get past this.
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Old 05-28-2020, 08:23 AM
InOmaha InOmaha is offline
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Originally Posted by Justme11 View Post
https://www.wcnc.com/article/news/he...5-123459f0082b

CDC lowers mortality rate to 0.4%

Still not great, but not the world ending plague that caused a global shutdown either.
It's a chicken and egg thing. Go back in a couple months in the main virus thread and you'll see some of us saying if we lockdown it will lower the death rate and as time goes on people will come to the conclusion that the death rate was so low there was no reason to lockdown. We didn't lock down by the way.

You'll probably notice a significant reduction in the death rates of many communicable diseases. We were heading into one of the worst flu seasons and it went "poof" when schools let out and people stayed home from office buildings and away from each other. They finally wash their hands too, the filthy bastards.

A lot of people who are for opening up seem really mad now that we're finally opening up like they wanted. I'd recommend a vacation. Disney is opening their parks. Flights and hotels are cheap and you can book them almost the day before you leave. I'm finalizing another trip for next Monday today. That's rare without a high price and definitely not normal. Last year I booked the same trips 3 weeks out. My first class tickets are about the same cost as my regular tickets last year.

I racked up 2,000 miles of driving 4 flights and 3 weeks of hotel stays in the last 2 months. So the "lockdown" wasn't really a lockdown. Get out and spend. The economy needs you. You do not need government permission to leave your house. So stop pretending some jackboot is going to toss you in the gulag because you went to Disneyland and get out. Just take a useless mask and wear it when they ask you to wear it. Small price to pay to do most anything you want.
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Old 05-28-2020, 09:15 AM
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Uh just so you know, "burning out" is exactly herd immunity.
Kinda. Not really.

Herd immunity relies on permanent or extremely long term immunity and slow growth to leave a significant fraction still uninfected when the virus dies out. You keep the R0 close to 1 so that the virus has trouble finding people and gradually over time slip the R0 below 1 because as the .3 from that 1.3 R0 is now immune. The higher you let the R0 go while building immunity, the more of your total population you get infected. You still infect 70% of your population, or whatever, which is only 30% better than complete failure. But it takes forever and if immunity doesn't last as long as it takes to gradually infect the whole population it doesn't happen and you still get the other 30% infected, plus reinfections that accumulate a higher and higher fatality rate as you go indefinitely.

Burning it out implies lots of infections very quickly with no need for long term immunity. The virus can't find anyone to infect because everyone it can find already has an active infection, not because they had an infection 2 years ago. You may give up 90% of your population to the virus, but it's over, it's over fast, and it's over for good.

But what you really want to do is try to figure out who that 70% of people are who were going to get infected in the herd immunity scenario. Send the other 30% to shelter, and then infect that 70% today. And those 70% of people are the ones who don't care if they catch the virus. So it's no big deal to them. It's the best possible moral and practical outcome.
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Old 05-28-2020, 09:26 AM
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The last time herd immunity was tested in my state, the deer population was reduced around 50% over 2 years. The disease eventually stopped. It was harder to get deer tags during hunting season until the population recovered.

Normally, we take care of disease in herds by killing a percentage of them so they don't overpopulate and spread them. Herd immunity to disease is the same, but a waste of animals by letting them die of diseases or starvation compared to controlled culling.

In the same vein we could simply clear out the nursing homes right now with either herd immunity or targeted euthanasia. Same end result. If there aren't enough animals to spread the disease, it stops spreading. Death is the mechanism in both cases. Herd immunity means nothing to the people who have a miniscule chance of death. It's not personal that the weak have to die, unless you're weak.
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Old 05-28-2020, 11:04 AM
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Originally Posted by Justme11 View Post
https://www.wcnc.com/article/news/he...5-123459f0082b

CDC lowers mortality rate to 0.4%

Still not great, but not the world ending plague that caused a global shutdown either.
What they "lowered" was that it's now what they consider "most likely of 5 scinarios"

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

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Table 1. Parameter Values that vary among the five COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios. The scenarios are intended to advance public health preparedness and planning. They are not predictions or estimates of the expected impact of COVID-19. The parameter values in each scenario will be updated and augmented over time, as we learn more about the epidemiology of COVID-19. Additional parameter values might be added in the future (e.g., population density, household transmission, and/or race and ethnicity).

Parameter values are based on data received by CDC prior to 4/29/2020
This brought to you by the people who told you millions would die...

If you'll recall I told kev at least 2x that this was NOT TEOTWAWKI.

As I said when they told us to hug a chinese, not to wear masks, and eat at Chinese restaurant:
I don't care what they say, I'm gonna do me.

When they shut down restaurants and told us to wear masks:
I don't care what they say, I'm gonna do me.

An d now.... Guess what I'm gonna do?
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Old 05-28-2020, 05:28 PM
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CDC lowers mortality rate to 0.4% Still not great, but not the world ending plague that caused a global shutdown either.
Still nearly 10% in my county.
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Old 05-29-2020, 03:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Colt View Post
Kinda. Not really.

Herd immunity relies on permanent or extremely long term immunity and slow growth to leave a significant fraction still uninfected when the virus dies out.
Here's your problem. You are using incorrect information. Herd immunity does not rely on permanent or long term immunity. Herd immunity relies on a sufficient number of the susceptible population to develop anti-bodies against a pathogen. Most of the time those anti-bodies only last a few years, then your body quits producing them. The mass extinction of the herd is not needed nor desirable. It is not desirable to wipe out a pathogen because you will always have new members to the herd well before you will be able to "burn it out".
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Old 05-29-2020, 06:01 AM
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Originally Posted by GrayFoal2 View Post
Still nearly 10% in my county.
Maybe you have the bad strain there.
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Old 05-29-2020, 01:34 PM
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Maybe you have the bad strain there.
Oh. Yay.
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Old 05-29-2020, 01:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Justme11 View Post
https://www.wcnc.com/article/news/he...5-123459f0082b

CDC lowers mortality rate to 0.4%

Still not great, but not the world ending plague that caused a global shutdown either.
The CDC estimate is actually much lower than that when they factor in the estimated asymptomatic cases.

Quote:
Until now, we have been ridiculed for thinking the death rate was that low, as opposed to the 3.4% estimate of the World Health Organization, which helped drive the panic and the lockdowns. Now the CDC is agreeing to the lower rate in plain ink.
Horowitz: The CDC confirms remarkably low coronavirus death rate. Where is the media?

Quote:
For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.
So where is the media with this? They are still trying to find a way to lay the blame on Trump - for saving over 2 million lives based upon the February fatality projections.

Kayleigh McEnany shuts down reporter asking how many dead Americans should be considered a coronavirus success

Quote:
I think, you know, Dr. Birx said it best when she said that in their estimates they had anywhere between 1.5 and 2.2 million people in the U.S. succumbing to the virus if we didn't shut down the economy.
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