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updated thoughts: Migration of the masses: Realistic thoughts of PSHTF ???

13K views 71 replies 35 participants last post by  Ole' Timer 
#1 ·
I've talked with people on this forum, over the last three years, about choices regarding where to live for our best chances to survive the coming SHTF events, where best to avoid the masses. I have heard a lot of responses regarding the choice we made, particularly, concerns about the state below me. This prompted me to have conversations with my husband suggesting a serious review our choice and alternatives. Our other choices when we prepared to "Jump Ship" from Silicon Valley, were Idaho and Montana. We opted for no snow and forest canopy. I posted about how we chose Where to live/move, Criteria to Consider


We are on the Oregon Coast, with one major road that could bring desperate Californians, which include some of my grown children and many of my friends, to our door. I fear the normalcy syndrome may keep those I love from getting out of harms/marshal laws way in time.

We had to make a marathon run down to the Bay Area (San Jose/San Fran) for doctor appointments, 1100 miles in 24 hours. On the drive down I was making observations of the route we chose, road conditions ,surroundings, populations of each town we encountered and the distances. On the return trip north we discussed in depth the observations made, enacting a scenario.

From the large metropolitan population, it is 450 to 500 miles from them to us.

What percentage of them will choose to flea the city fast enough to avoid grid lock, troops, hostiles, hysterical masses, et al ?

What percentage of them would have a full tank, much less cans equaling the 30 to 50 gallons of fuel it would take them to drive here, or the cash to buy gas if they could find a station open and willing to sell. How far could they get with what gas is in their tank. How far would they get before having to walk? How far would they get before coming nose to nose with hostiles?

What preps would they have in their car? Would they even have a jacket? Water? walking shoes? Are they in a suit from work? What percentage of them have security measures or weapons to secure their path. Would they have babies or small children to carry? What about grandma in a wheel chair?


FOR OUR CIRCUMSTANCE:

Highway 101 (Pacific Coast Highway) is two lanes, the majority of the path to our town. It is mostly up hill. It is almost always cool and damp. It is sparsely populated all along the route with few towns of density, several of which are tribal lands.


The encounters of people a "migratory mass", or single person, would encounter on their trek (in our scenario) are rural farmers, and tribal groups who don't take kindly to strangers or city folk. Who else would one encounter on this path?

How many could realistically show up in our town? To the west is the ocean
and to the east are a handful of roads leading up hills and rivers with vast areas of wilderness, federal lands and state parks. How many would continue north and not even attempt to explore small roads east working their way to our door.

How many would choose the road leading up to our location? How far would they be willing to stray away from the one major road (101) that they have been on for 10 hours to 20 days, before turning back to the "safety" of the highway. (Ten hours if they had five or six 5 gallon cans of gas to 20 days being on foot the entire way < 500 miles at 20-30 miles a day> )

I really think that our need to protect our home, children, garden and stores will be well within our capability to defend them, especially if we have any of our CLAN gathered.



WE did happen across something we did not think about, much less notice, until this trip.. .. .. .. .. We pass right by Pelican Bay Maximum Security Prison. With the most violent criminals and lifers, ever.. It is about 100 miles south of us ON 101.

What procedures , IF ANY, do the prisons across the U.S. have for a SHTF scenario? How near are YOU to your local inmate population and are you in their likely path?

How easy would it be for inmates to become a free "mass of mayhem" coming our way with no more than a 3-4 day walk and as little as a couple hours if they procure a car with gas in it. Do the corrections officers have orders to lock them all down, or to shoot them all...... what do we realistically have to fear?

How likely is it they would choose our little road to cut away from the highway? How likely is it that they would travel far enough back to be able to see smoke from our fire, prompting them to seek us out? Would they expect to encounter booby traps? Will they still be in uniforms enabling us to see them?

ARE THERE NEIGHBORS WITH WHOM YOU HAVE A PLAN TO PROTECT?
WHAT ABOUT YOUR COMMUNITY/TOWN.... DISASTER PLANS, SECURITY PLANS?

Have you noticed an increase of population in your area? Are motorhomes trickling in to your town already? What is the jobless population in your area now? What is your food bank saying about the increase of local clients, traveling strangers coming in for a box of food? WE HAVE.
FEMA sent a notice to our local food bank warning them that in the event of a larger event, they were not to expect shipments or help due to the remoteness of our location and the lack of population here. To be prepared to deal with things themselves. We have also seen a definite decrease of shipments. The food bank used to recieve 2000 pounds of food every other week....its down to 700 now.

Has the migration begun in your area?

Just another day in thinking ahead, planning, and prepping for that shower of brown stuff. . . . .
 
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#2 ·
I went to your profile to read your threads as I said I would, low and behold most of them I had already read, great information. This tread as well has lots, and lots of food
for thought, we are in Vancouver, Washington, I really wish we could be in a non populated area, but isn't an option at this time, but I keep looking for afordable property.
 
#4 ·
Dizz,
As you can imagine, our decision to leave the big city and all it provided us, leaving was tough. We left the corporate world, friends, family, familiarity of location . . . But, I have to tell you, we don't regret it. The first eight months were great, an adjustment, but great. Then, of course, we had our own SHTF and had to start over from scratch with great disability and hardship. The upside to that was that we learned how to navigate SHTF while there were still resources, friends not in crisis and support. It will be much harder for folks who glide along in their cushy lives then abruptly have to navigate SHTF (whatever it may be) when everyone else is experiencing the same thing. Affordable property might include purchasing with another family of like mind. Have you thought about this?

I also have come to the conclusion that prepping is something to become a part of your life now, not so much something you pull out of a bag once an event occurs. Its such a hard balance to achieve and everyone has their own specific dynamics and needs....
 
#3 ·
A lot of questions to answer. Here's my 2cents worth on some of them.
1) the prison-The guards know what kind of people are in there. They and their families live in the area. No way they will let anyone out,(alive) period!!
2)The more I think out different scenarios the less I believe in the whole mass migration/fleeing of cities. Nukes-gridlock and EMP will stop most. Financial collapse-most will stay put. Pandemic- The last thing the government wants is people fleeing the infected area ie. government armed roadblocks.
3) mass number of people walking - lack of water/food will stop the majority before they get close to you.

At most you may encounter small groups who were mobile who acted fast and got out. In which case the more isolated you are, the more danger you are in. Read FerFal accounts of what happen on isolated farms close to the cities (not your situation) The more isolated you are the more time attackers have to overcome you. Who will come to you aid if neighbors are miles away. Will others even know whats happening?

It seems to me you picked a good place to live. Not saying to let your guard down but keep things in perspective.

Your greatest danger will arise from those within 50 miles of you, not 100's waway.
 
#24 ·
Read FerFal accounts of what happen on isolated farms close to the cities (not your situation) The more isolated you are the more time attackers have to overcome you. Who will come to you aid if neighbors are miles away. Will others even know whats happening?
.
Others will probably will not know what is happening and that is for the best. I presume you refer to the Argentinian collapse where remote farms were preyed upon by roving gangs? How many of those remote Argentinians were armed like we remote Americans? I can assure you that any gang type force attacking here with even odds, or even 2 to 1 odds would be wiped out. 3 to 1 they would probably take the place but suffer significant 20%+ casualties. a raiding gang cannot afford to sustain such casualties in many raids and remain viable...and the larger the group the more supplies they will need.

Oregon is a beautiful state with a climate more conducive to survival than many classic locations. However it is full of the sorts of people that ruined America to begin with and so hiding out there post shtf seems a bit questionable...
 
#7 ·
Yes, I thought of that, but I can't get any of my family or close friends to even put away a few gallons of water should their be an earthquake, these are educated people, not dems, they just don't believe things could get so bad that whatever they have in their pantrys won't take care of them. My son would go in with us if we can find anything in our price range, what we have found so far is in eastern oregon, and is a big sand dune, not good for crops I don't think, so I keep looking, have even looked in other states, but I keep looking and may run across the right place, I believe God will lead me where I am suppose to be. I will watch for your posts because they are exactly the kind of info I need.
 
#14 ·
Why would people migrate?

I can really only think of three possibilities:

1) looking for employment / better money as demonstrated by the Mexicans illegally coming to the US or the Okies moving from Oklahoma to California during the Depression.

In a collapse, there will be no reason to move because there will be no money system of any value to entice people to go somewhere.

2) Escape persecution: as demonstrated by the Jews that fled Germany before the holocaust and even our founding fathers when they left England for religious freedoms.

I can see this as being a possibility if the government turns into a Nazi police state.

3) Natural Disaster: as demonstrated by the flood of Katrina displaced person.

This would be a realistic probability if a major event happens in certain geographical areas. California would be at risk if there was another major earthquake that destroys San Fagcisco.
 
#15 ·
This particular topic came up in the early 90's following a military study on refugee lines, CM. It was discussed on the major survivalist forums back around that time. Refugee lines, as proven by that study, were determined to be the single biggest threat and detriment to any country/government/society/economy in an extended emergency situation. It's why the gov here, the UN, and every other developed country in the world take so many steps to stop refugee lines at all costs. Once started, they can destroy entire countries.

The approx formula was 90% of a moving population moving 30 miles per day *on foot* with a 10% attrition rate per day. You would start off with approx 6 million folks heading your way from the San Jose/Fran area if they all move in the same direction. with L.A. being south of there, if it started moving, you'd have even more.

On the first day, six million will be thirty miles from San Fran, the end of the second day, 5,400,000 will be sixty miles from San Fran. The third day, 4,860,000 will be 90 miles from San Fran etc. At 450 miles distance from San Fran, you're looking at over 1.25 million folks walking across your area on day fifteen. Rough estimates, of course.

Refugee lines are like avalanches....they might start small in most cases but they cause everything in their path to start moving, too.

rich
 
#17 ·
This particular topic came up in the early 90's following a military study on refugee lines, CM. It was discussed on the major survivalist forums back around that time. Refugee lines, as proven by that study, were determined to be the single biggest threat and detriment to any country/government/society/economy in an extended emergency situation. It's why the gov here, the UN, and every other developed country in the world take so many steps to stop refugee lines at all costs. Once started, they can destroy entire countries.

rich
I have no respect for a relief agency (UN) whose method of relief aid delivery is officially called "truck and chuck"
 
#16 ·
From the large metropolitan population, it is 450 to 500 miles from them to us.

What percentage of them will choose to flea the city fast enough to avoid grid lock, troops, hostiles, hysterical masses, et al ?

What percentage of them would have a full tank, much less cans equaling the 30 to 50 gallons of fuel it would take them to drive here, or the cash to buy gas if they could find a station open and willing to sell. How far could they get with what gas is in their tank. How far would they get before having to walk? How far would they get before coming nose to nose with hostiles?
There may be quite a few who can get that far by motorcycle.

But why WOULD most of them go so far north? You don't expend precious gas just to travel more miles without a reason, once you've gotten away from the cities. And certainly you don't walk far without a reason...like trying to reach relatives.

I expect you will get visitors on motorcycles mainly.
 
#19 ·
You are very correct. There is so much Forest land, State/National Parks and Wilderness between SF and our BOT (bug out town) that most would not wish to go further than 200 miles.



I don't think most motorcycles can forge the rivers they would have to as well as much of the terrain.... because I guarantee you there are people in many of the small towns and back areas that fully intend to and are able to blow the bridges required to get further north . But yes there would be a certain amount that could make it here.

And I also guarantee you that refugee lines will have to pass through Tribal Lands.... yeah, good luck with THAT.


Your thoughts?
 
#20 ·
Depends on the circumstance? Not to knock PORT ORFORD, Bandon or gold beach but there’s not a big draw. I’m not sure people would choose to head there in a SHTF it would be an act of desperation. I’d be more concerned with the “bug Out” people heading to a place like that because they think they are going to “live off the land” in the woods.

It’s roughly 437 miles from PORT ORFORD to San Francisco 1 tank of fuel will get almost any car or truck that far and for some that’s not a full tank of fuel
One thing is for sure San Francisco/ bay area is roughly 7.5 million people if SHTF it will get ugly and desperate quick
 
#26 ·
*****************************

There are some big flaws in your supposition. Most people DON'T maintain their vehicles in top mechanical condition to get good mileage.......and probably only 10% (if that) make a habit of keeping the fuel tank full (or nearly full).

Twenty bucks doesn't buy much gasoline, any more. And, that amount is what most drivers are buying at their local gas station. Plus, they're nearly OUT of fuel when they pull into the station. I've already seen drivers pushing their cars down the road toward a gas station after they actually ran OUT of gasoline.......and I don't live in an area that is down and out.

I see very few of those fuel-efficient hybrid vehicles on the road. What I DO see are plenty of gas-guzzling SUV's and big honkin' pickup trucks. Neither of these are getting 460 miles on a tank of fuel. They will be lucky to get 200 miles before that fuel gauge is in the red zone. (And that is IF they started off with a full tank......which most don't.) Same goes for the older cars on the road. 10-12 mpg is about the best they get. And nothing guzzles gas like stop-and-go driving, either.

And then there is the certain gridlock on the major roads and highways. Once that happens (which will be shortly after the SHTF).....NOBODY stuck in that mess will be going anywhere. Then you will have people deciding to take their chances on foot. And, the average person in that situation can't walk 2-3 miles without collapsing. Or, if they do get farther, their feet will be a bloody blistered mess.

It also won't take long for the smaller towns around the big cities to put up barricades guarded by grim-faced men with firearms, because law enforcement and ham radio operators will pass the word, quickly. They won't be letting highway refugees into their towns. Instead, the road people will be told to keep on moving.
 
#21 ·
Your estimates while correct if unabated.... don't seem to account for variables
If you have a refugee line from L.A. or San Fran, the sh*t has hit the fan with enough force that there won't be any abatement. That's the point. And they weren't my estimates, it was a US military/DOD study based on a lot of real world historic data. Those numbers *do* take into account all the minor variables as well. It, the study, simply said that in any subject grouping, 90% of the members of the group will be able to perform a given menial task. In this case, it's walking a given distance. If you start with 10 million people and ask them to walk 30 miles, 90% or better will be able to do it while one million won't due to whatever reasons. On the next day, the new given subject group will be nine million, and again, 90% will be able to do the given task. 900,000 won't be able to finish it due to injury etc and won't be mobile. They strip the countryside of all available resources as they pass through, they eradicate cropland, drain water resources, use all available gasoline etc as they pass through....and that makes the then indigenous pop join the refugee line, too. Thirty miles from the originating city, 90% of that local pop will become refugees in the line and so on.

If your pop base is sufficiently sparse and your environment is sufficiently hostile, you can lose more through attrition than you gain, but in Calif, you're far more likely to gain refugees as the line moves. Those numbers I quoted were based on one city alone without adding any to the line.

In the real world, millions of refugees will routinely cover hundreds of miles through some of the worst landscape Afrika/Asia has to offer, far worse than the US, with no food, little water, high temps etc, and they destroy everything they touch. The UN tries to divert them by setting up refugee camps that break up the line formation into manageable groups.

It's akin to a forest fire. If left alone, it'll keep spreading until it either consumes all the possible fuel or it'll stop due to some environmental factor like rain etc....but if left to run its course, it'll burn a *lot* of land.

rich
 
#22 ·
Well then.......Those numbers account for Marshal Law, blockades, hostiles and terrain bringing numbers as such, then I must ask myself at what level of SHTF do I WANT to live through or die from. I guess I will have to add another thing to my preps....Jones Koolaid.

I really thought that particular population would likely head to the central valley and up I-5 ( the main corridor for the entire state and greatest farm land).

I suddenly feel somber.
 
#23 ·
Curious



the main stream media had a show about potential natural disaster areas and the one they were really hammering was the entire Oregon coast which surprised me. They were considered about a fault line and a nuclear power plant. Not to spook you. It was on fox news. you probably have already seen it. I was surprised frankly. thought I would mention it.

I came back to my area. South Western PA for my family. I wouldn't move for fear of being in a bad location because of my family. I'm in a very stable environment thankfully, It's hilly and I'm 11 ft above sea level. Definitely wouldn't have been my first pick though.
 
#25 ·
the main stream media had a show about potential natural disaster areas and the one they were really hammering was the entire Oregon coast which surprised me. They were considered about a fault line and a nuclear power plant. Not to spook you. It was on fox news. you probably have already seen it. I was surprised frankly. thought I would mention it.

I came back to my area. South Western PA for my family. I wouldn't move for fear of being in a bad location because of my family. I'm in a very stable environment thankfully, It's hilly and I'm 11 ft above sea level. Definitely wouldn't have been my first pick though.

The Trojan nuclear plant is far north of us and not in our air current. For that, I am not worried. The fault line is something I am prepared for. My argument is and has been that I would take an earthquake over other natural disasters. EVERY YEAR other areas go thru Hurricane SEASON, Tornado SEASON, Flood SEASON, Blizzard SEASON, Fire/drought SEASON.
There is no season for earthquakes. I have lived through the big on in LA in '73 , also the Loma Prieta in '89 . Its a disaster I can wrap my brain around.
I was in two hurricanes (Blanche and Gerda) as well as tornados in Indiana and Alabama........ I will take an earthquake threat any time!
 
#27 ·
No matter how badly they want or need to leave their homes in the big cities, most people are not physically or emotionally prepared to do so. They will hesitate, for days.

After that it will be too late to drive anywhere. They freeways and even the small highways within 50 miles (a guess) will be blocked with abandon cars that have broken down or run out of gas. My guess is 90% of city folks will remain at home and await their faite.

Those that leave very early should have most of a day to drive around and should be able to move large RVs or trailers. Those that hesitate had better be riding a dirt bike or a horse.

The big question is where to go and how can you get the place set up ahead of time. I maintain that it takes 3-5 years before a new piece of land produces consistently. I believe you need to own and be living at your bug out location year around long before the crisis hits.
 
#31 ·
And I wouldn't want to be them, passing through Tribal Reservation lands, which there is MUCH of between here and there.... their land, their laws...and most don't like outsiders.


PS, if they make it here, they'd better have brought some of that wine with them.....:upsidedown:
 
#32 ·
I was also thinking about the "blow and guard" defense for areas like yours. Most definately it would be easier to block off or choke any vehicle access to your area. I would just make sure that you have the ability to undo the damage when/if things get better. Like many have posted before not too many on foot will be willing to brave long distances by foot for no known payoff. I am in great shape and can go for a long time on foot. I know how to take care of my feet(Thanks USMC) and there is no way that I would be worried about a bunch of refugees that are starving and un prepared and stressed out. Set up road blocks a good ways away and set up some early warning traps just incase some crazies decided to venture of the beaten path.

By the way I grew up my whole life in the north west and I think it is the most beautiful place in the US. I would bug out there also, but our family has some realy bad history up there I want to stay away from.
 
#33 ·
We saw it here for Rita, interstate gridlock, people died in their cars, shoot outs at the gas pumps. 30 hours to go 77 miles.

Sheeple are stupid if there is a real SHTF then most of them will die.
 
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#34 ·
I agree. I think that people either have "normal syndrome", panic in hysteria, or lose all morals and use it as permission to be recalcitrant......none of which will make it any distance and be a threat.

and I am more glad than ever that we moved here and arer prepping.

Thrivalism!
 
#36 ·
I probably think different then most people, but if I was going to walk out of California I would definitely go north. I sure wouldn't go South to Mexico, and West is too soggy for my taste. East is a lot of tough dessert. I would probably try and follow the valleys that have irrigated farms in them and stay away from I-5. I might follow a river if possible or rail line. It wouldn't be hard to throw a line in the water and maybe catch a fish. There's always discarded fishing line along the banks and if you look for a while you can find a hook or two, especially if you are willing to wade out to logs just off the banks around fishing holes.
Since I am not the best fisherman I may try and get to the ocean after I got past the big cities on the coast. I could always find some clams or something in the tidal pools to keep me from starving. So there is a good chance I would end up on 101.
Then again in a long term SHTF situation. Eventually I would probably uproot out of frozen Montana and head for the Willamette Valley where the weather is milder and you can grow so many more crops. So if you live in the Willamette Valley eventually you are going to see the descendents of the Vikings migrate into your fair village. So be prepared to hide your women, because we are handsome devils.
 
#40 ·
Refugees will not be going somewhere, they will be going anywhere!
They will flow like water taking the path of least resistance!
If they are crowded they will flow along every side road looking for refuge!
Local blockades will quickly get overcome, refugees have guns too!
Some will venture up your road!
The harder you try to stop them the more you have to protect the more they are likely to look!

Defending at your turnoff will only invite more to turn off! what are you defending?????
many will turn off with the idea of gain and will explore up that turnoff to the end, thiers or the road!

Passively deter refugees from turning off! hide the road if you can!
If the road passes through dense bush possibly dig the road up and plant some trees quick, make it look like the end of the road! and maybe a road ends sign! whatever the local authorities use!
 
#43 · (Edited)
Defending at your turnoff will only invite more to turn off! what are you defending?????
many will turn off with the idea of gain and will explore up that turnoff to the end, thiers or the road!
Passively deter refugees from turning off! hide the road if you can!
If the road passes through dense bush possibly dig the road up and plant some trees quick, make it look like the end of the road! and maybe a road ends sign! whatever the local authorities use!

We have 70 foot Sitka felled, and aging to drag over the turn, There are dense Rhodies on both sides do it wouldn't take much to back hoe 10 feet of the road, drop a tree and plant more rhodies in front and back of it, then rake it forest carpet (debris) to make it look natural. We also collected a few DEAD END SIGNS to plant as needed.

And, I will reiterate, There are people up here who have plans in place. I will not say I've met them , but they are legends here and fully entrenched in the local govt. There will be many obstacles for masses to travelers and figure out.

I know its hard for those who have not driven this stretch of road to fully understand what is between the largest population threat and our home. First, from SF north it is all UPHILL after traversing either the golden Gate Bridge or the Bay bridge (going east then back to west would add 50-100 miles depending on route). There are also at least a dozen state parks (large ones) with 10-100 camp sites and self sustaining bathrooms/showers....many will choose to become a community there. There are also no less than four tribal reservations that they will have to pass through...yeah, good luck with THAT. The masses, I would think, would migrate up the I-5 where the farmland foods are, where its not all uphill.


Who here has walked 500 miles?? Really, go two days without sleep, and one day without food to simulate the emotional flush of adrenalin that would ensue in a SHTF event, then put on business clothes, and start walking (hopefully in perfect weather).... no tools, no weapons, no cover, no food carried, and in a panicked crowd of millions.... How far do you think you are going to get?????.
 
#42 ·
http://www.survivalistboards.com/showthread.php?t=170767

according to the original post in this thread it seems some people predict evacuation of most folks toward larger cities, not leaving from them. Looking at chaotic events even in recent history that caused migration, this may be the actual trend. people thinking larger cities may have more resources or be more stable due to law enforcement or government actions. closer to places to get aid if you depend on the government to help you (and we know many many expect that!) i dunno... hope we never have to find out.
 
#44 ·
Pakistan

In the early years of the Cold War, India cast out those who became the current inhabitants of Pakistan. Those folk refugeed out with the clothes on their backs, and what they could carry in their hands. Behind them lay fire and death, ahead lay hardship and privation.

In the early days of the United States, we uprooted the Cherokee from their lands in Tennessee, and marched them by force to Oklahoma, which was beyond the bounds of the nation as we knew it at the time. They still call that the Trail of Tears.

If it happens, there will be a considerable upheaval of our values among the folk who survive, and it behooves us to befriend the survivors. They will be some very tough and valuable people to have available for their knowledge, their skills, and their attitudes. Good customers, and, if it works as it should, good neighbors to have.
 
#46 ·
In the early years of the Cold War, India cast out those who became the current inhabitants of Pakistan. Those folk refugeed out with the clothes on their backs, and what they could carry in their hands. Behind them lay fire and death, ahead lay hardship and privation.

In the early days of the United States, we uprooted the Cherokee from their lands in Tennessee, and marched them by force to Oklahoma, which was beyond the bounds of the nation as we knew it at the time. They still call that the Trail of Tears.

If it happens, there will be a considerable upheaval of our values among the folk who survive, and it behooves us to befriend the survivors. They will be some very tough and valuable people to have available for their knowledge, their skills, and their attitudes. Good customers, and, if it works as it should, good neighbors to have.

I saw the same thing living in Africa. I have also had to evacuate a country due to immanent thread of being shot or bombed.... multiple times.

I agree with you that we must befriend the new survivors, BUT I ALSO BELIEVE that we would only begin that process AFTER the first two weeks or so. I takes that long for the panic, killing and pillaging to begin subsiding.
 
#45 ·
People flee a natural disaster if the've been warned. The only "state" wide natural disaster you face coming from Calif. would be multiple huge earthquakes. In which case bridges and roads would be damaged and impede travel.

On foot no way the majority of people will make 30 miles a day. More like less than 10 miles. Again lack of portable water will stop 99% of the people from South and Mid. Calif. from reaching you.(on foot)

The sad fact about people fleeing their homes is that the majority always waits to the last minute to make their move. Anyone in a hurricane state can tell you what happens then.

The more I take a hard look at the whole "Migration/Golden Horde" fear. The more I realize its fueled my Sci-fi movies and fiction books.

It will be those who live within walking distance of the "inner city" or the "poor" area of your town/area who will bear the brunt of violence. Castlemom you need to drive around your area and find these enclaves of poverty, also locate those gated communities within 20-30 miles. The poor are used to dealing without. Those upper middle-class sheeple (in my experience) feel a lot more "entitled" than most poor folks. The "crazy" factor will be high with this crowd.
 
#48 ·
It will be those who live within walking distance of the "inner city" or the "poor" area of your town/area who will bear the brunt of violence. Castlemom you need to drive around your area and find these enclaves of poverty, also locate those gated communities within 20-30 miles. The poor are used to dealing without. Those upper middle-class sheeple (in my experience) feel a lot more "entitled" than most poor folks. The "crazy" factor will be high with this crowd.

Sweetheart, there is one town 15 miles north and one 15 mile south then 30 miles further south none of which are more than 6000 in population..... only 22,000 in this entire County which is well over 8 million acres. there are no gated communities unless you are talking about the sheep :D:
 
#49 ·
I know the topography of 101 and it is one long string of chokepoints. Each choke point is a natural dam on the river of refugees. A refugee line could be stopped dead in its tracks any number of places were the locals to organize.

I think a population on foot is not going to be doing any 30 miles a day. 10 is more likely with variation depending on weather. They will be carrying goods, they will be a mixture of family and friends of various ages and levels of physical condition. Weather will intervene in the form of heat, cold, rain, snow, fog, wind, etc. Roads would be obstacle courses in some areas and there would be crime, friction and disputes to slow any progress. Hunger/thirst will slow movement to a crawl fairly quickly.

Even people who are very fit won't be able to do 30 miles. When the supplies on hand are gone you are left with foraging. That takes a lot of time, entails a lot of risk and still may not provide the calories/water you need to plunge on full speed.

There will be some of those on bicycles who could probably make 40 miles easily. Not a large number here.

Figure the average auto will be doing a half gas-tank of travel. That's going to be 100 -200 miles. If the tank is full at the start the range is double that. If refueling en route is possible the range is unlimited. Since vehicles also provide shelter and store far more supplies than you can carry, I'd expect people to stay with their vehicles as long as they possibly could even after the fuel was gone.

OTOH if roads are gridlocked you might be faster walking. Remember the nightmare that the evacuation for hurricane Rita resulted in. And that was a carefully planned and governmentally shepherded operation where no actual disaster had happened yet. No panic. Imagine what it would be like if the disaster had hit, the evacuation was spontaneous and no LEO around to keep things orderly.
 
#51 ·
I know the topography of 101 and it is one long string of chokepoints. Each choke point is a natural dam on the river of refugees. A refugee line could be stopped dead in its tracks any number of places were the locals to organize.

I think a population on foot is not going to be doing any 30 miles a day. 10 is more likely with variation depending on weather. They will be carrying goods, they will be a mixture of family and friends of various ages and levels of physical condition. Weather will intervene in the form of heat, cold, rain, snow, fog, wind, etc. Roads would be obstacle courses in some areas and there would be crime, friction and disputes to slow any progress. Hunger will slow movement to a crawl fairly quickly.

Even people who are very fit won't be able to do 30 miles. When the supplies on hand are gone you are left with foraging. That takes a lot of time, entails a lot of risk and still may not provide the calories you need to plunge on full speed.

There will be some of those on bicycles who could probably make 40 miles easily. Not a large number here.

Figure the average auto will be doing a half gas-tank of travel. That's going to be 100 -200 miles. If the tank is full at the start the range is double that. If refueling en route is possible the range is unlimited. Since vehicles also provide shelter and store far more supplies than you can carry, I'd expect people to stay with their vehicles as long as they possibly could even after the fuel was gone.

OTOH if roads are gridlocked you might be faster walking. Remember the nightmare that the evacuation for hurricane Rita resulted in. And that was a carefully planned and governmentally shepherded operation where no actual disaster had happened yet. No panic. Imagine what it would be like if the disaster had hit, the evacuation was spontaneous and no LEO around to keep things orderly.

Great Observations my dear! We took a list of hurricanes, earthquakes greater than 6.6, a couple fire storms, floods, tornadoes and Mt. St, Helens and of course 9/11 events encompassing the last 30 years...... then recorded the historical displacement of the populations, response of govt et al, and importantly the duration of each stage of emergency...... the average time for panic to quell was two weeks.

An important note was how many stayed put (shock or obstanance), the amount of people who followed the govt teet, and the number of people who had a plan, got an early start, and relied on themselves.... it came out to 10-80-10.
 
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