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Old 03-07-2013, 11:39 PM
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It's only a matter of time until a 1918 type Spanish Flu - or worse - devastates the world's population.

Many of us believe this, and/or an economic collapse, is guaranteed.

It will be important to get ahead of the curve when this happens, especially in dealing with a SARS type illness that will spread like wildfire across the globe. I'm prepared, for example, to hunker down with my family for weeks until the wave passes by.

But when to hunker?

It's imperative to watch for signs; and it will probably be as low key as this in the beginning:

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/u-warns-hea...230251928.html

When do you declare the time has come, and call in sick/keep the kids home from school/invoke your isolation plan?
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Old 03-07-2013, 11:59 PM
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This would not be any fun NO NO
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Old 03-08-2013, 09:40 AM
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Watch the site they give you for updates, and pay attention to other alert websites as well.

Pay attention to how it spreads, where it goes, and it's mortality rate. This is information you are likely to gather far before they release any actual warnings much less put out traveling bans etc.

Try to be one step ahead of it. Right now, it might be a good idea to stay away from the airports as much as possible, and avoid meetings with people coming from areas with infected people.

IMO, Now is not the time to take extreme measures and start pulling your kids out of school and staying home from work...

If you live in a big city, maybe you try riding your bike to work instead of the bus or a cab.

Pay for things with cash, and have exact change. You can simply set cash on the counter and never have contact with others. Someone may look at you odd, but who cares...

Most of the things you can do people won't even notice, and they're a good practice to use regularly anyway.

I would say that for most of us, the time to start calling in sick would be when the disease passes easily from person to person, and has a mortality rate above 5%. 5% may sound low, but thats 1 in 20 people infected will die...or 10 out of 200 or 100 in 2000 or even 1000 in 20000.

That's about a million people dead in New York City if it spread through the city...

Of the 14 people infected, 8 have died. that's over 50%... obviously its to early to know what the real mortality rate is, but it doesn't sound good.

Things we don't know just yet, but play a huge factor are; incubation period, mortality rate, length and course of infection and routes of infection.

If it's a perfect storm type virus and it has a high mortality rate, it easily passes from human to human, has a long incubation period but a relatively short course then we're screwed... Millions of people would be sick before they ever knew it, and by time they had symptoms it would be to late.

The only chance you would have for fighting something like that would be isolation or play the odds game. Isolation will keep you safe, as long as you can remain isolated. Seems simple... but what if it passes easily from people to animals and then from animals back to people? A bird craps on your tomato, rain washes away the poo but not the virus, and you eat that yummy tomato. Then you get sick, pass it all those in your group and you die anyway. STBY...

Or you try to boost your immune system so you can fight the virus head on and live to tell the tale. It's simply an odds game then, and you can only manipulate the odds so much.

IF you survive, it might be a lonely world, much different from anything you were familiar with before.

Then you get to live on edge just waiting to see if it mutates and you have to play russian roulette time after time.

Glad I could be a great confidence booster Have a nice day
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Old 03-08-2013, 10:05 AM
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knowing the lack of success my wife and I have had in avoiding the average flu, I'd say we are screwed.
we stock symptom meds and avoid even the other family, work from home as much as possible etc...and still....
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Old 03-08-2013, 10:49 AM
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Agreed. For those of you out there that don't know what the 1918 Influenza pandemic was like, I suggest you watch some the documentaries on YouTube. PBS' The American Experience made a really good one. The thought of something like that happening again is enough to make your hair turn white.

According to a CDC article:

1/3 of the world's population was infected
Case-fatality rate was >2.5%

http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/...79_article.htm
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Old 03-08-2013, 11:12 AM
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Originally Posted by Bearclan View Post
Agreed. For those of you out there that don't know what the 1918 Influenza pandemic was like, I suggest you watch some the documentaries on YouTube. PBS' The American Experience made a really good one. The thought of something like that happening again is enough to make your hair turn white.

According to a CDC article:

1/3 of the world's population was infected
Case-fatality rate was >2.5%

http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/...79_article.htm
In todays world, that would be about 175 million dead. However, mortality rates would be lower in my opinion, but infections would be higher...

One thing to consider is how a virus mutates. The mortality rate will be significantly higher when it first starts infecting its new victims. Viruses don't aim to kill their hosts... they simply want to thrive the environment. If they kill the host, they die too. Parasites cannot live without a host unlike bacteria.

That being said, as they progress through the population, they will be less and less deadly (in theory) so your best bet would be to try and wait it out as long as possible. With any luck it wont mutate the wrong way and become even deadlier...
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Old 03-08-2013, 11:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Medieval Man View Post
It's only a matter of time until a 1918 type Spanish Flu - or worse - devastates the world's population.

Many of us believe this, and/or an economic collapse, is guaranteed.

It will be important to get ahead of the curve when this happens, especially in dealing with a SARS type illness that will spread like wildfire across the globe. I'm prepared, for example, to hunker down with my family for weeks until the wave passes by.

But when to hunker?

It's imperative to watch for signs; and it will probably be as low key as this in the beginning:

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/u-warns-hea...230251928.html

When do you declare the time has come, and call in sick/keep the kids home from school/invoke your isolation plan?
Obviously it would be a judgement call. Fortunately we have resources they didn't back in 1918, especially in information dissemination. Back then, Wilson and his proto-DHS thugs were so obsessed with not allowing news of anything that might suggest weakness on the U.S.' part to reach Germany they censored newspapers and tried to keep knowledge of the spread of the Flu from reaching the public. Which made the death toll worse... Today with the Internet and texting and all that jazz, if people start getting sick and dying, it's going to be public knowledge PDQ.

I would keep an eye on the CDC and WHO. The World Health Organization is subject to political pressure and won't say anything until it has to; but watching if they start to squirm and change definitions again to avoid calling a pandemic a pandemic should provide some warning. The CDC, on the other hand, won't call it until they're sure, but they'll be making a lot of noise in the form of warnings and announcements as things start to ramp up. I would say, as soon as you're sure it's something serious, to isolate yourself and family. If you wait until kids in school or adults at work are getting sick, you've waited too long and probably exposed yourself.
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Old 03-08-2013, 12:42 PM
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Here is more info on the Coronavirus that you all were talking about today.

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwr...=mm62e0307a1_x

http://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/ncv/
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Old 03-09-2013, 12:07 PM
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I'm not sure we could rely on the govt to accurately portray an event like this.

They would certainly downplay it, which would lead to less time to prepare.

One thing I've discovered is local newspapers; the AP or another national news service will report on an event, but it is usually the local newspaper that will be most accurate.

I've seen this time and time again. The feds and their state controlled media will say, "Move along, nothing to see here," while the local news might have an interview or angle on the story you wouldn't see from the state media.

Only in the US, though...
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Old 03-10-2013, 11:14 AM
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The case fatality rate for the H5N1 "bird flu" I think is about 61% right now. With the 1918 rate that Bearclan mentioned, it was estimated that 50-100 million people died. So yup, do the math. Once it becomes human-to-human transmissible, all bets are off.
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Old 03-10-2013, 11:17 AM
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It's interesting on how they're drilling through ice, attempting to find, new to science, but ancient bacteria and maybe even a really special virus.

Just what we need!

http://science.slashdot.org/story/13...in-lake-vostok
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Old 03-10-2013, 11:35 AM
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Ancient super-virus, new and improved, now with zero Trans Fats and Gluten-Free!
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Old 03-10-2013, 11:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moccasin View Post
.....I would keep an eye on the CDC and WHO. The World Health Organization is subject to political pressure and won't say anything until it has to; but watching if they start to squirm and change definitions again to avoid calling a pandemic a pandemic should provide some warning.
Excellent point,here. I'm thinking we could apply this line of thinking to our worsening financial/currency system, seeing as the gov/central banks are using harmless sounding terms like "quantitative easing", rather than calling it what it is, and redefining everything from unemplyment to inflation.
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Old 03-10-2013, 11:38 AM
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Originally Posted by kontraktniki View Post
Ancient super-virus, new and improved, now with zero Trans Fats and Gluten-Free!
Yup,I'm waitin' on me some of them organic,Free-range viruses.
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Old 03-10-2013, 11:40 AM
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This website has different alerts worldwide including disease outbreaks. Click on the symbols, open the details page for complete description. Really cool website to see whats happening.

http://search.yahoo.com/r/_ylt=A0oG7...map/index2.php
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