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Old 12-28-2010, 12:00 AM
emailthepilot emailthepilot is offline
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Default $5/gallon gas by 2012 says former Shell CEO



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Former Shell CEO predicts $5.00/gallon gas by 2012 and shortages/1970's style rationing by the end of the decade. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010...est=latestnews
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Old 12-28-2010, 12:36 AM
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Very interesting! Anytime I need to be reminded of why I prepare I read about peak oil,,, to me its one of the most plausible future events which will represent a grave threat to America, the world, and also freedom.
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Old 12-28-2010, 01:04 AM
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find a job close to home or move closer to work. but i don't think most of us have those options. the ones getting hit hard with this will be the working class who needs to commute to their $10-$15 per hour jobs. a lot of hurt is coming. brace yourself for the storm.
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Old 12-28-2010, 05:27 AM
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Originally Posted by janit0r View Post
find a job close to home or move closer to work. but i don't think most of us have those options. the ones getting hit hard with this will be the working class who needs to commute to their $10-$15 per hour jobs. a lot of hurt is coming. brace yourself for the storm.
you hit this on the head of the nail, bro. spouse and I both use our cars in our work daily. Those who must use their vehicles as part of their work will be hit the worst. newspaper carriers, truck drivers, taxi drivers, cleaning, repair, maintenence people,delivery folk.... if we are lucky enough to even be able to find gas (if things go the way some are predicting).
I have seriously considered switching to a bike for warm weather. good thing I am paid by the hour. I will not get nearly as much work done when it takes me 5x as long to pedal to the next job.
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Old 12-28-2010, 10:40 AM
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Oil and fuel price changes come in waves. While I don't discount this warning, I believe this is more about politics and getting the Obama administration to allow more off shore drilling than any supply/demand pressure.

Last time this happened, the price of used medium duty (class 4-6) truck fell to less than a good used pickup. I still wish I had grabbed a four year old Ford F-650 with a flat bed when they were selling for $15k. Perhaps this time I will. I am also planning to buy another fuel transport tank for the wife's pickup.

Used heavy duty trucks (semi tractors) approaching manditory overhaul sold for less than 8k if any of you need something bigger.
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Old 12-28-2010, 10:54 AM
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More oil drilling off the coasts of the United States could not increase the world supply of daily oil production by even 1% and so would have very little effect on the world price of oil. Further, increased current production means less near-future production.

The only solution for the United States involves cutting oil consumption by 2/3rds. or more.
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Old 12-28-2010, 10:54 AM
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I've been chomping at the bit to buy a 4X4 truck. But with rising gas prices I think I'll stick with my 4 cylinder car. I hope the rest of America is paying attention.
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Old 12-28-2010, 11:00 AM
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Would you care to state your sources for that apparent line if bovine excrement?
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Originally Posted by hillsidedigger View Post
More oil drilling off the coasts of the United States could not increase the world supply of daily oil production by even 1% and so would have very little effect on the world price of oil. Further, increased current production means less near-future production.

The only solution for the United States involves cutting oil consumption by 2/3rds. or more.
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Old 12-28-2010, 11:05 AM
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Originally Posted by cwi555 View Post
Would you care to state your sources for that apparent line if bovine excrement?
I'm sorry it bothers you but facts are facts.

World oil production is about 85 million barrels per day with one percent of that being 850,000 barrels per day (which would be about a 50% increase in American offshore oil production).

Tell us how that additional amount could be produced off American shores and for how long.

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/..._would_we.html
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Old 12-28-2010, 11:12 AM
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I belive it will sky rocket. Which also means that diesel fuel will be even more expensive. Gonna cost me around 180 or so to fill both tanks on my F-550 welding rig!!!! Sad thing is is that I have to pass the extra cost down to my customers and with the economy in the state it is its hard to get work at a higher rate.
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Old 12-28-2010, 11:23 AM
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With the way Obama used last years oil spill as an excuse to ban drilling, this might get Sarah Palin elected.

What do you say Hillsidedigger, drill baby drill.

How's that Hope(y) and Climate Change(y) thing working out for you.
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Old 12-28-2010, 11:33 AM
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It's sad but $5 gallon + fuel and it's economic turmoil will be a reality sooner rather than later. But being the short sighted / memory sheep that we are we do very little about it.

Want to save our economy? Not to mention our planet. Then how about instead of the endless bail outs, subsidies and tax breaks we take that money and invest it here in real jobs, developing real renewable energies and solutions that can then be exported and sold?

We know it's coming but very few of us do anything about it.

I bought a Prius for my wife 3 years ago. Got the usual laughs and ha ha's. She and a lot of co workers commute about 60 miles a day. Then gas went to $4+. Suddenly a lot of her co workers wanted to car pool with her! She said fine. 5 bucks a day each. Then gas got cheaper again. They stopped. Well it's back above $3 gallon again with no end in sight.....last night the phone rings. "Can we start car pooling again?" .......Yup....laugh all you want.

Freaking lemmings....
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Old 12-28-2010, 11:45 AM
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I have to throw the flag on you, your source, and your 'facts'.


That site you listed couldn't even make a valid quote. If you look to the fine print, it will show a link to the EIA.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pe...crdsnd_k_m.htm
Total US production per day as of 2009 is 167,000 barrels a day by their numbers. Which btw are skewed as well. How do I know this? simple addition and subtraction.
Did it ever occur to you to check the numbers listed?
According to the source document from 'your' link the EIA/DOE we produce 20 percent of the worlds oil (percentages from the numbers of the source doc.) they also show the US using an average of 280 thousand barrels a day. By their own numbers thats percent of all the worlds oil production per day used by lil ol USA. BS. China exceed our use a long time ago.

Getting back to drilling off shore only equaling 1%

Now the interesting part is, the EIA/DOE can't even check their own damn numbers. According to this chart was 102 million per day. It hasn't been 85 million since 1990.
As for off shore production, remember this by the NPR
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...ryId=126809525
Just one well head leaking was around 75 barrels per day.

Do you have any idea how much oil is off the shores of the US? We could shut our doors to all imports and be just fine and dandy if we drilled it for a very long time.

When you have done some valid research instead of just parroting some agenda driven bogus website get back to me.



Quote:
Originally Posted by hillsidedigger View Post
I'm sorry it bothers you but facts are facts.

World oil production is about 85 million barrels per day with one percent of that being 850,000 barrels per day (which would be about a 50% increase in American offshore oil production).

Tell us how that additional amount could be produced off American shores and for how long.

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/..._would_we.html
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Old 12-28-2010, 11:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Robert_W View Post
Got the usual laughs and ha ha's. She and a lot of co workers commute about 60 miles a day.
That's the problem, not the price of gas. Everyone wants to bemoan how horrible it is to live in the city, then get all when gas prices go up. Live close to where you work and gas prices aren't an immediate problem.
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Old 12-28-2010, 12:19 PM
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"Total US production per day as of 2009 is 167,000 barrels a day by their numbers. Which btw are skewed as well. How do I know this? simple addition and subtraction.
Did it ever occur to you to check the numbers listed?
According to the source document from 'your' link the EIA/DOE we produce 20 percent of the worlds oil (percentages from the numbers of the source doc.) they also show the US using an average of 280 thousand barrels a day. By their own numbers thats percent of all the worlds oil production per day used by lil ol USA. BS. China exceed our use a long time ago." - cwi555

Nearly every statement you made here is far from correct!

(round numbers quoted from memory) -
U. S. oil production per day in 2010 is about 6 or 7 million barrels per day (you say 167,000)
the U. S. will produce about 7 or 8% of the world's oil in 2010 (you say 20%)
the U.S consumes about 20 million barrels of oil per day (you say 280,000)

and China in 2010 will consume less than half the oil as the United States (you say China will consume more. It's coal that China will consume more of). Since there's about 4 times as many Chinese as Americans that means the average Chiney uses only about 1/8th. the oil as does the average American.

Further, while actual American offshore oil reserves are large, most of it is widely dispersed, highly diffuse and very deep and you'd be surprised how little of it is technically and economically recoverable, they say about 30 billion barrels or enough to fulfill one year's worth of world oil consumption.

"Do you have any idea how much oil is off the shores of the US? We could shut our doors to all imports and be just fine and dandy if we drilled it for a very long time." - cwi555 **** Wrong, again, unless American oil consumption were cut by 7/8ths

besides, the decision about where and when to drill is largely a question for private industry to answer.
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Old 12-28-2010, 02:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Hick Industries View Post
With the way Obama used last years oil spill as an excuse to ban drilling, this might get Sarah Palin elected.

What do you say Hillsidedigger, drill baby drill.

How's that Hope(y) and Climate Change(y) thing working out for you.
Offshore oil drilling wasn't banned. There's still thousands of rigs and production platforms operating off of American shores. It's just that no new offshore areas will be leased at this time. The oil companies have huge offshore areas already leased where they are drilling and producing at a frantic pace and huge offshore areas that are already leased that they haven't even touched yet.
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Old 12-28-2010, 04:24 PM
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NPR.org is valid research or even a source for anything????????

hillsidedigger I wouldn't even bother with some peoples poor attitudes and methods of expression. Let them fly that stupid flag! Just sit back and smile as the price of oil goes higher and higher. Most people have no clue how much money,effort and risk it takes to produce a barrel of oil. It gets worse all the time as politicians and people live the dream of 50 years ago.

A prudent person should plan for higher prices and decreased availability by making adjustments to their lifestyle now before its to late.

Red
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Old 12-28-2010, 04:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Deadmeat99 View Post
That's the problem, not the price of gas. Everyone wants to bemoan how horrible it is to live in the city, then get all when gas prices go up. Live close to where you work and gas prices aren't an immediate problem.
Yup...typical. Ignore the problem till it becomes a very serious one. Then what?

I live very close to work. It's the wife that commutes. And with a car that gets 45 mpg or so it's as good as reality will allow at the moment. If some company produces something better, I will buy it.

I'm not bitching about gas price. In fact, I'd like to see $10 or 15 + a gallon fuel. Something that forces a change in our lifestyles and thinking as a nation. We truly need a 2x4 to the head as a society. Only then will we get our heads out of our asses and wake up to the fact that we cannot continue in perpetuity off of the suckling pig that is hydrocarbon energy.

Mind you I also have an F-450 rig for the ranch so I'm not immune to high fuel prices. But until the Prius will haul 10,000 lbs I won't be giving it up any time soon.

And yup, I could live in a city, ride a bike, etc. Been there done that. But it still doesn't solve the issue of finite energy. We all can't live in the city. Some of us have to produce the products / food that is used and consumed there don't we?

And when the SHTF....then what? Then I decide to leave and prep? No....sorry. Quite happy where we're at now. Way out of the way and if it all goes to crap tomorrow I'm 95% ready. The other 5% we'll deal with.

I also know for a fact that my wife and I and the life style that we live now consume considerably less energy than probably 98% of the US population. (Though there are some things I refuse to give up but I freely admit a bit of hypocrisy here.)

I'm not here to argue. I've long given up on folks that refuse to see it. Bottom line is that oil, coal, NG, what ever.... is a FINITE POLLUTING resource. We are trashing the planet with their continued use. Period.

We as a country / society could go a very long way toward a much brighter economic future....not to mention a cleaner healthier environment if we would just focus our efforts as a whole on clean renewable energy. We need something akin to the Apollo program. The nation focused on a common goal. But I hold out very little hope. Those values seem to be long lost. Sadly we lack the leadership and gumption. We've mostly become a nation of dumbed down self serving lemmings. We live in the present with very little regard for future generations.

There is no way we will EVER drill our way out of the hole that we have created. Our entire society is based on hydrocarbon energy. And unless we do something about it very soon we are all in for a very rude awakening. It's all going to come crashing down.

We are already seeing the effects all around us. Spiraling food prices, gold at record highs, massive unemployment, widening rich to poor gap and on and on. And for those that want to deny or argue these facts...... well.....OK. It's just the way folks are wired I guess. Head in the sand.

BTW.....I am NOT abdicating the abolishment of fossil fuels. I clearly realize their need. What I am saying is that we need a much more concerted effort towards a cleaner renewable energy future. Before it's too late. We're already witnessing the collapse and we're watching it happen in almost complete denial. History and society are repeating themselves and we know it. We have the power to change. But do we have the will? I doubt it.

But I'm only echoing whats been said by many here and elsewhere.

Hope I'm wrong.
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Old 12-28-2010, 05:10 PM
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Wow! That's a lot longer than I had hoped for!
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Old 12-28-2010, 05:16 PM
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Originally Posted by JoeInSTL View Post
I've been chomping at the bit to buy a 4X4 truck. But with rising gas prices I think I'll stick with my 4 cylinder car. I hope the rest of America is paying attention.
Wise choice!
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