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View Poll Results: What will the second wave be like?
Second wave will be nasty (disease deaths/economically/crime/anything) 63 38.65%
About as bad as first wave 25 15.34%
Not as bad 52 31.90%
Don't know / rather not say 23 14.11%
Voters: 163. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-22-2020, 10:31 AM
woodyp woodyp is offline
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Originally Posted by Colt View Post
I have a feeling we're now in a vicious feedback cycle. They ****ed up going back and forth on the pandemic and worrying more about 'panic' than getting this thing stopped. All they did was push back the chaos and increase its severity.
You mean just kick the can down the road like every session of Congress is good at? Surely they've seen the error of their ways by now!
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Old 05-22-2020, 12:17 PM
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No matter how you cut it the bill on this pandemic will come due and one way or another we will pay.
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Old 05-24-2020, 09:28 AM
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Price of Corn is down. The US is the largest exporter of food in
the world. Other countries that depend of importing food will
fare worse than we will.

I predict the price of food will go up as the pandemic hits
more countries harder. We will export less, as more people
stock up.

Why use corn for our fuel when Gas is so cheap? We need to
make more Corn based foods like corn bread, tortillas, and others.

World War 2 was hard on the US, but because we were able to
adapt, we came out on top, versus the rest of the world. Thanks
to our President, and our system of Government, we will come
out on top in the next year as well.

The Farmers who I work with till thousands of Acres of Corn, Wheat,
Soybeans, and other crops, none for human consumption. Most are
used in Animal feed. Not one of these farmers has taken more than
two weeks off at a time since this thing started. Most work 6 days
a week on up.

Trump will shift where we send food to make the US come out on
top. The rest of the world will end up owing the US and other
major food producers when this is done.
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Old 05-24-2020, 02:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Truck Vet View Post
Price of Corn is down. The US is the largest exporter of food in
the world. Other countries that depend of importing food will
fare worse than we will.

I predict the price of food will go up as the pandemic hits
more countries harder. We will export less, as more people
stock up.

Why use corn for our fuel when Gas is so cheap? We need to
make more Corn based foods like corn bread, tortillas, and others.

World War 2 was hard on the US, but because we were able to
adapt, we came out on top, versus the rest of the world. Thanks
to our President, and our system of Government, we will come
out on top in the next year as well.

The Farmers who I work with till thousands of Acres of Corn, Wheat,
Soybeans, and other crops, none for human consumption. Most are
used in Animal feed. Not one of these farmers has taken more than
two weeks off at a time since this thing started. Most work 6 days
a week on up.

Trump will shift where we send food to make the US come out on
top. The rest of the world will end up owing the US and other
major food producers when this is done.
My understanding is that the corn used for Ethanol production isn’t the same as folks are used to for eating. Like feedcorn isn’t.

Not that it couldn’t be consumed, just that most folks wouldn’t want to.

Again tho, an assumption on my part.

Secondarily to that, even if it were tasty, doesn’t mean that economics of scale would allow for it (readily) into the food supply chains. Look at all of the other millions of tons of vegetables put to waste recently.

No processing capability for it at harvest.
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Old 05-24-2020, 03:29 PM
Nomad, 2nd Nomad, 2nd is offline
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Originally Posted by Camelfilter View Post
My understanding is that the corn used for Ethanol production isn’t the same as folks are used to for eating. Like feedcorn isn’t.

Not that it couldn’t be consumed, just that most folks wouldn’t want to.

Again tho, an assumption on my part.

Secondarily to that, even if it were tasty, doesn’t mean that economics of scale would allow for it (readily) into the food supply chains. Look at all of the other millions of tons of vegetables put to waste recently.

No processing capability for it at harvest.
I know it s feed corn, not sweet corn. Not sure if it'd be good for corn syrup or corn oil, but it would do for critter feed, cornmeal etc and it stores well.
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Old 05-24-2020, 03:46 PM
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Our county finally opened. I think our governor figured out next year is election year. When you **** off everyone in the state by keeping everything closed you won`t get reelected. He did such a good job over reacting and destroying our economy.
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Old 05-24-2020, 04:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Camelfilter View Post
My understanding is that the corn used for Ethanol production isn’t the same as folks are used to for eating. Like feedcorn isn’t.

Not that it couldn’t be consumed, just that most folks wouldn’t want to.

Again tho, an assumption on my part.

Secondarily to that, even if it were tasty, doesn’t mean that economics of scale would allow for it (readily) into the food supply chains. Look at all of the other millions of tons of vegetables put to waste recently.

No processing capability for it at harvest.
What does Wiki say?


Although not grown primarily for human consumption, people do pick ears of field corn when its sugar content has peaked and cook it on the cob or eat it raw. Ears of field corn picked and consumed in this manner are commonly called "roasting ears" due to the most commonly used method of cooking them.
Uses[edit]
Large-scale applications for field corn include:[2]
Livestock fodder, whether as whole cobs (for hogs only), whole or ground kernels, or (after chopping and ensilage) the entire above-ground portion of the unripe plant
Cereal products including corn flour, corn meal, hominy, grits, nixtamal, tortillas, corn bread, and cold breakfast cereals (such as corn flakes).
Other processed human-food products including corn starch, corn oil, corn syrup, and high-fructose corn syrup.
Alcohol and corn whiskey
Adhesives, plastic, gels, and thickeners from starch
Field corn is not generally regarded, in industrialized societies, as desirable for human food without commercial pre-processing, the main exception being Mexico, in which field corn consumption far exceeds that of sweet corn. Outside Mexico, an exception is "roasting ears", similar in appearance to corn on the cob, although it is necessarily roasted (rather than boiled or steamed as is usual with sweet corn), and is neither tender nor sweet even after the roasting. Field corn is also commonly eaten in third world countries, e.g. a variety of Field corn, known as Cuzco corn, is commonly eaten in the Andes region of South America.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Field_corn
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Old 05-24-2020, 05:03 PM
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I think all these social interactions (pool parties, open shops, etc.) will lead to a far more severe 2nd wave. People across the country will be lulled into a false sense of security this summer, and the Covid19 base (ie the number of people who have it) will be very high in October and November, when it comes back with a vengeance.

I predict 3-5k dead a day by December.
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Old 05-24-2020, 06:13 PM
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Originally Posted by DRH.1979 View Post
I think all these social interactions (pool parties, open shops, etc.) will lead to a far more severe 2nd wave. People across the country will be lulled into a false sense of security this summer, and the Covid19 base (ie the number of people who have it) will be very high in October and November, when it comes back with a vengeance.

I predict 3-5k dead a day by December.
We're only 10 doubling away from the whole US population. I'm hoping to get there before September. We were doubling every 3 days earlier. We can do this no problem. We don't need winter's help and by the time November rolls around for flu season the virus should have run out of fuel and burned out.
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Old 05-24-2020, 07:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Colt View Post
We're only 10 doubling away from the whole US population. I'm hoping to get there before September. We were doubling every 3 days earlier. We can do this no problem. We don't need winter's help and by the time November rolls around for flu season the virus should have run out of fuel and burned out.
Possibly.

However what happens if there is no prolonged natural immunity?

Or if immunity varies wildly. As seemingly infectivity does.

Also, anecdotal, second infections being more severe. Along with the severe secondary immune system complications in some kiddos.

Nope, best to hold off on hoping “everyone” gets it. IMHO. Simply way too many unknowns.

Mind, just because I hope such doesn’t occur, doesn’t mean it won’t. Simply don’t think such would be a great idea to hope for given that its novel is all.
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Old 05-24-2020, 08:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Camelfilter View Post
Possibly.

However what happens if there is no prolonged natural immunity?
Same thing that happens with the cold, and is happening now.

Most people will fight it off.

Those with major health problems, won't be so
lucky. They will be hospitalized, or even die.

Much like the flu.

This is why one of the most important aspects
of Prepping is to do your best to maintain good
health.

If you have 20,000 rounds of ammo but
smoke 3 packs a day, its time to check your
priorities.

Edit: nothing personal, I just noticed what you call yourself
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Old 05-24-2020, 10:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Camelfilter View Post
Possibly.

However what happens if there is no prolonged natural immunity?

Or if immunity varies wildly. As seemingly infectivity does.

Also, anecdotal, second infections being more severe. Along with the severe secondary immune system complications in some kiddos.

Nope, best to hold off on hoping “everyone” gets it. IMHO. Simply way too many unknowns.

Mind, just because I hope such doesn’t occur, doesn’t mean it won’t. Simply don’t think such would be a great idea to hope for given that its novel is all.
Oh, no. Herd immunity is for cowards with no freedom hiding behind others. My hope is to spread it so aggressively that everyone that's not staying in lockdown are all sick at the same time. No need for long term immunity or anything. Everyone the virus can get to is either dead or already sick. If all else fails, you just keep reinfecting them as quickly as possible until they're all dead. Regardless, the virus runs out of fuel and burns out, then we can go back to normal life without a pandemic virus.
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Old 05-25-2020, 08:22 AM
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I'd like to chime in, mostly to come back here next year and see if I was wrong!


I don't believe there will be a more severe "second wave" of COVID-19 come this fall. There will be an increase in cases like we always see with influenza and other seasonal illnesses, but not like many are predicting. COVID-19 became a pandemic because China hid its release from the world, then let 5 million citizens leave Wuhan after it entered the population. It spread like it did because it takes up to 14 days before an infected person to show symptoms, but they can infect others much sooner than that. The U.S. (and the world) were unprepared for another pandemic, in spite of medical professionals preaching for years it would happen.


But now we're aware of the virus, and we know how to guard against it. We know to protect people in senior care facilities (unlike Cuomo) so we'll keep tighter protective measures in place. We'll still have the fear of the initial wave fresh in mind so we'll use masks, sanitizer, better hand-washing practice. etc. We'll also have earlier detection and treatment in place. Of course this whole theory could go right down the crapper if the virus mutates into a more virulent strain, but it's mutated several times already and not become substantially worse. “However, it should be stressed that only a fraction of all mutations will be advantageous; most will be neutral or harmful to the virus and will not persist.” -Virologist Prof. Jonathan Stoye
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Old 05-25-2020, 12:01 PM
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But now we're aware of the virus, and we know how to guard against it. We know to protect people in senior care facilities (unlike Cuomo) so we'll keep tighter protective measures in place. We'll still have the fear of the initial wave fresh in mind so we'll use masks, sanitizer, better hand-washing practice. etc. We'll also have earlier detection and treatment in place.
Knowing and doing aren't the same thing.

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Old 05-25-2020, 12:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mintex View Post
I'd like to chime in, mostly to come back here next year and see if I was wrong!


I don't believe there will be a more severe "second wave" of COVID-19 come this fall. There will be an increase in cases like we always see with influenza and other seasonal illnesses, but not like many are predicting. COVID-19 became a pandemic because China hid its release from the world, then let 5 million citizens leave Wuhan after it entered the population. It spread like it did because it takes up to 14 days before an infected person to show symptoms, but they can infect others much sooner than that. The U.S. (and the world) were unprepared for another pandemic, in spite of medical professionals preaching for years it would happen.


But now we're aware of the virus, and we know how to guard against it. We know to protect people in senior care facilities (unlike Cuomo) so we'll keep tighter protective measures in place. We'll still have the fear of the initial wave fresh in mind so we'll use masks, sanitizer, better hand-washing practice. etc. We'll also have earlier detection and treatment in place. Of course this whole theory could go right down the crapper if the virus mutates into a more virulent strain, but it's mutated several times already and not become substantially worse. “However, it should be stressed that only a fraction of all mutations will be advantageous; most will be neutral or harmful to the virus and will not persist.” -Virologist Prof. Jonathan Stoye
I have a cousin in Tennessee who was shopping at Walmart wearing a mask and gloves. He is a healthy 30 year old who’s Mom, my first cousin, just completed cancer treatments. He, a partner and his Mom live together so he is trying to be extra careful. A young man about 18-22 was approaching folks trying to shake hands. Cousin backs up and finally has to get assertive to get that young man to stop. Wonder how many hands were shaken.

Couple of beauticians in Missouri opened shop serving 140 clients while having symptoms of covid19. Second wave is coming.
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Old 05-25-2020, 01:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Camelfilter View Post
Theoretical.

Please share any NOVEL (new, never before encountered in history, in humans) respiratory true GLOBAL pandemic, in the last century.

“Spanish” influenza is all we have to go on, and what did occur.

Not scare tactics, just history.
Here are two examples, whether or not there was a second surge, I'm not sure.

1968 Pandemic (H3N2 virus)

woman working in lab
The 1968 pandemic was caused by an influenza A (H3N2) virus comprised of two genes from an avian influenza A virus, including a new H3 hemagglutinin, but also contained the N2 neuraminidase from the 1957 H2N2 virus. It was first noted in the United States in September 1968. The estimated number of deaths was 1 million worldwide and about 100,000 in the United States. Most excess deaths were in people 65 years and older. The H3N2 virus continues to circulate worldwide as a seasonal influenza A virus. Seasonal H3N2 viruses, which are associated with severe illness in older people, undergo regular

1957-1958 Pandemic (H2N2 virus)

In February 1957, a new influenza A (H2N2) virus emerged in East Asia, triggering a pandemic (“Asian Flu”). This H2N2 virus was comprised of three different genes from an H2N2 virus that originated from an avian influenza A virus, including the H2 hemagglutinin and the N2 neuraminidase genes. It was first reported in Singapore in February 1957, Hong Kong in April 1957, and in coastal cities in the United States in summer 1957. The estimated number of deaths was 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the United States.
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Old 05-25-2020, 04:03 PM
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The last time I checked, prosperity was based on prodigious production of surplus usable goods and services, equitably traded and enjoyed. Doing more with less so more can enjoy is superior to doing less with more so few can enjoy. It had nothing to do with money.

Confiscation of surplus for the purposes of socialism (compulsory charity) will inevitably discourage surplus. Why work harder or longer when gubmint will just take it from you?

And when surplus declines, the equal distribution of poverty is no remedy.

By shutting down production, and making people more dependent upon government entitlements, the lack of goods and services will be painful.

When the second wave hits, after most people have suffered from months of unemployment, it will be devastating.

It won't matter how much 'free money' government dispenses, the shelves will be bare like a 1950's Soviet Market. When there's nothing for money to buy, what good is it?


Wise Ant saith : store up a 24 month supply of necessities. A cold "winter" is coming. And hide it from gestapo grasshoppers who will 'liberate' it from you.
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Old 05-25-2020, 06:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mintex View Post
But now we're aware of the virus, and we know how to guard against it. We know to protect people in senior care facilities (unlike Cuomo) so we'll keep tighter protective measures in place. We'll still have the fear of the initial wave fresh in mind so we'll use masks, sanitizer, better hand-washing practice. etc. We'll also have earlier detection and treatment in place. Of course this whole theory could go right down the crapper if the virus mutates into a more virulent strain, but it's mutated several times already and not become substantially worse. “However, it should be stressed that only a fraction of all mutations will be advantageous; most will be neutral or harmful to the virus and will not persist.” -Virologist Prof. Jonathan Stoye
It USED to be 'novel', now it's not. We have respirators, we have masks, we have TP, we have hospital beds, we have EXPERIENCE. We might even have a vaccine. <shrug> And the first little uptick will have the tyrants locking us down once again. That's when you will see widespread civil disobedience.

Hell, some people will still be in their basements on Christmas. They may as well stay there permanently.

The unrest will be because of food or other shortages due to the destroyed economy.
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Old 05-25-2020, 07:45 PM
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It USED to be 'novel', now it's not. We have respirators, we have masks, we have TP, we have hospital beds, we have EXPERIENCE. We might even have a vaccine. <shrug> And the first little uptick will have the tyrants locking us down once again. That's when you will see widespread civil disobedience.

Hell, some people will still be in their basements on Christmas. They may as well stay there permanently.

The unrest will be because of food or other shortages due to the destroyed economy.
Wish I had a basement. Going to make up for it once we get the new place built, though. It'll be 100% basement.
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Old 05-25-2020, 07:48 PM
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It USED to be 'novel', now it's not. .
DIsagree.

Long term.got ramifications and how It ends up are not yet known.

I tried to have a basement.... After it started to be a well (perched water table) I gave it up.
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