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Old 04-07-2020, 07:23 PM
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[QUOTE=CabinLass;20219976]
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Originally Posted by cannedy View Post
We Austria is going to try to lift restrictions.
I will be watching that country as closely as I can.

https://www.ft.com/content/d7025074-...3-22c000cc41d6
I hope it works out. Maybe their success will shut up the panicmongers and America can open for business again.
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Old 04-07-2020, 07:54 PM
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[quote=puttster;20221918]
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Originally Posted by CabinLass View Post

I hope it works out. Maybe their success will shut up the panicmongers and America can open for business again.
do you ever have anything nice to say about Americans?
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Old 04-07-2020, 08:18 PM
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HUMANS ARE SCR*WD IF IT MUTATES.

I believe that this coronavirus will become seasonal. I strongly believe that the US Govt needs to get masks (N-95 or better masks and filters) and other PPE out to all citizens. The people on the front lines are not the only ones who get infected and die from this.

I see that Amazon is now refusing to sell PPE to citizens! This has me ticked off!
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Old 04-07-2020, 08:37 PM
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HUMANS ARE SCR*WD IF IT MUTATES.

I believe that this coronavirus will become seasonal. I strongly believe that the US Govt needs to get masks (N-95 or better masks and filters) and other PPE out to all citizens. The people on the front lines are not the only ones who get infected and die from this.

I see that Amazon is now refusing to sell PPE to citizens! This has me ticked off!
Then maybe the citizens need to send a message to Amazon by not buying from them. If our lives mean that little to Jeff Bezos, then he damn sure don't need our money.
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Old 04-07-2020, 09:05 PM
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That is right. Until proven otherwise, it is here to stay. Anything else is just wishful thinking.
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Old 04-07-2020, 09:13 PM
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We're not that screwed unless it mutates into something a lot nastier.

The worst-case projections were for about 2% of all humans to die by the time this wave ran its course. Actual mortality has been a fraction of that, but just for the sake of doom-and-gloom let's be pessimistic and say it does kill 2% of everyone per wave.

That means it would take about 34 waves to kill 50% of the population (98% live per wave, so after 34 waves 0.98^34 = 0.503 or 50.3% remaining alive). This is ignoring factors which would skew the numbers lower over time, like improvements in detection and treatment, and depletion of the most vulnerable segments of society.

We know it mutates more rapidly than influenza, but not twice as rapidly, so let's guesstimate nine months between "coronavirus seasons".

9 months/season * 34 seasons / 12 months/year = 25.5 years to kill 50% of the population.

25.5 years is a pretty long time. That's long enough for new people to be born, grow up, and have children of their own. That's the time it took us to advance from 100MB Zip drives to 4TB thumb drives. It's the time it took to bring infliximab, vedolizumab, tofacitinib, golimumab, and etrolizumab to market for the treatment of autoimmune disorders.

It's a long enough time that I'm pretty sure we could come up with a vaccine for this coronavirus before it kills us all. And remember that that's based on a horribly pessimistic projection.

People are dying, and that sucks. I'm worried about my parents and parent-in-laws, who are in the highest risk categories. But I don't think we're staring in the face of extinction.
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Old 04-07-2020, 10:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ttkciar View Post
We're not that screwed unless it mutates into something a lot nastier.

The worst-case projections were for about 2% of all humans to die by the time this wave ran its course. Actual mortality has been a fraction of that, but just for the sake of doom-and-gloom let's be pessimistic and say it does kill 2% of everyone per wave.

That means it would take about 34 waves to kill 50% of the population (98% live per wave, so after 34 waves 0.98^34 = 0.503 or 50.3% remaining alive). This is ignoring factors which would skew the numbers lower over time, like improvements in detection and treatment, and depletion of the most vulnerable segments of society.

We know it mutates more rapidly than influenza, but not twice as rapidly, so let's guesstimate nine months between "coronavirus seasons".

9 months/season * 34 seasons / 12 months/year = 25.5 years to kill 50% of the population.

25.5 years is a pretty long time. That's long enough for new people to be born, grow up, and have children of their own. That's the time it took us to advance from 100MB Zip drives to 4TB thumb drives. It's the time it took to bring infliximab, vedolizumab, tofacitinib, golimumab, and etrolizumab to market for the treatment of autoimmune disorders.

It's a long enough time that I'm pretty sure we could come up with a vaccine for this coronavirus before it kills us all. And remember that that's based on a horribly pessimistic projection.

People are dying, and that sucks. I'm worried about my parents and parent-in-laws, who are in the highest risk categories. But I don't think we're staring in the face of extinction.
The statistics from the 1918 Spanish flu are all over the place. Some estimate a death rate of 20% among WW1 Soilders.
I agree that a total loss below 1% is not an extinction level event.

It is possible we will get a working vaccine this fall, but I suspect it will be more like 12 mo.
Until then they are testing a number of medical treatments to reduce the severity.
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Old 04-08-2020, 12:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ghost863 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by puttster View Post
I hope it works out. Maybe their success will shut up the panicmongers and America can open for business again.
do you ever have anything nice to say about Americans?
I hope America can open up for business again. If you don't, you are part of the problem, Ghost.
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Old 04-08-2020, 10:48 AM
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Not seeing anything about covid-19 mutatations, in fact the opposite so far.

However, one recent estimate I read stated that even by the end of June 95% of us will still not have been exposed to the virus so I also expect another big wave by fall after restrictions are relaxed...repeating until enough are exposed for herd immunity to apply.
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Old 04-08-2020, 11:01 AM
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I hope America can open up for business again. If you don't, you are part of the problem, Ghost.
Dude, you never have anything nice to say about America or it's people so if it looks like the whole world is the problem and you are the only one who thinks you are right, then maybe you need to look in the Mirror Puttster!!!!
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Old 04-08-2020, 11:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ncbill View Post
Not seeing anything about covid-19 mutatations, in fact the opposite so far.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/how-c...ferent-strains

The virus' mutation rate has been measured, and it averages about one mutation every fifteen days.
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Old 04-08-2020, 11:44 AM
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As if we needed a reason to prep, but right now, this IS the reason. We plan to be even more prepared for round 2. My B&SIL are in health care. They don't even have time for a decent meal, much less a garden. But this year they will. Because the rest of the family will be taking advantage of the extra space.
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Old 04-08-2020, 11:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steverino View Post
So the Dems colluded with China to unleash this virus because Orange Man Bad...
Yes - because doing so would have a very predictable path and results.

Does that some the least bit intelligent? NO! Drivel.

And the demtards LOVE the chicoms and they couldn't come up with an original idea in any case.
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Old 04-08-2020, 12:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ttkciar View Post
We're not that screwed unless it mutates into something a lot nastier.

The worst-case projections were for about 2% of all humans to die by the time this wave ran its course. Actual mortality has been a fraction of that, but just for the sake of doom-and-gloom let's be pessimistic and say it does kill 2% of everyone per wave.

That means it would take about 34 waves to kill 50% of the population (98% live per wave, so after 34 waves 0.98^34 = 0.503 or 50.3% remaining alive). This is ignoring factors which would skew the numbers lower over time, like improvements in detection and treatment, and depletion of the most vulnerable segments of society.

We know it mutates more rapidly than influenza, but not twice as rapidly, so let's guesstimate nine months between "coronavirus seasons".

9 months/season * 34 seasons / 12 months/year = 25.5 years to kill 50% of the population.

25.5 years is a pretty long time. That's long enough for new people to be born, grow up, and have children of their own. That's the time it took us to advance from 100MB Zip drives to 4TB thumb drives. It's the time it took to bring infliximab, vedolizumab, tofacitinib, golimumab, and etrolizumab to market for the treatment of autoimmune disorders.

It's a long enough time that I'm pretty sure we could come up with a vaccine for this coronavirus before it kills us all. And remember that that's based on a horribly pessimistic projection.

People are dying, and that sucks. I'm worried about my parents and parent-in-laws, who are in the highest risk categories. But I don't think we're staring in the face of extinction.
No it doesn't mutate more rapidly than the flu. Way slower. Did you read the article just posted in this thread???
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Old 04-08-2020, 12:37 PM
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Covid-19 doesn't have to mutate to come back this fall, it does not confer any lasting immunity to the infected that manage to fight it off meaning they can be reinfected again.... and again... and again... and again... and again....

This is here for good....
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Old 04-08-2020, 02:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by slackercruster View Post
...Hot weather apparently does not affect it.
Family in El Salvador (where it's ~85-95 (F) pretty much all the time, right now..) reports it is, indeed, 'community spreading', so.. Ya.. And, as I've quipped before.. If it (apparently) thrives in the ~98+ degs. / moist-enviro of our Lungs, so.. There's that 'math'...

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Originally Posted by Shaz View Post
What if your nose turns upside down and it starts to rain?
..Well, duh Andy, you walk on yer hands...

.02
jd
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Old 04-08-2020, 08:47 PM
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Quote:
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Quote:
Originally Posted by puttster View Post
I hope America can open up for business again.
Dude, you never have anything nice to say about America or it's people
I don't have much good to say about you. Or Russians or racists or keyboard warriors, that's for sure.

And please, read the topic and try to stay on it.
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Old 04-08-2020, 09:21 PM
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Originally Posted by puttster View Post
I don't have much good to say about you. Or Russians or racists or keyboard warriors, that's for sure.

And please, read the topic and try to stay on it.
that's ok, I never have anything good to say about you. SO I guess we are even.
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Old 04-08-2020, 10:19 PM
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Why does anyone think it will be going away with the weather? It is in Florida and South America now, so - it is like our Summer in Florida now, so - what would cause it to go away in the first place, it will be everywhere the whole time. It will likely come back as soon as restrictions are let loose and people start interacting again - full force - be that August or November …
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Old 04-08-2020, 10:29 PM
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Why does anyone think it will be going away with the weather? It is in Florida and South America now, so - it is like our Summer in Florida now, so - what would cause it to go away in the first place, it will be everywhere the whole time. It will likely come back as soon as restrictions are let loose and people start interacting again - full force - be that August or November
^^^^ this is exactly what I am worried about. As soon as the shelter in place orders are lifted I think we are going to see widespread devastation caused by this virus. I understand Americans have to go to work to not only pay bills but to keep our infrastructure going, but I fear that it will cause massive casualties when we do.
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