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Chinese Avian Flu H7N9 and recent developments cause concern

8K views 57 replies 34 participants last post by  Camelfilter 
#1 ·
Hey all,

I share this just to keep everyone informed and provide some information. I don't want to sound alarmist or anything.

Chinese researchers are saying this strain is particularly concerning due to the fact its killing poultry off rather than allowing it to survive in a sickly state. There are worries that the world poultry industry could suffer from this. The impact is all theoretical and up for debate, but its still a concern.

On top of the economic concerns, this virus has apparently mutated several times at an alarming rate. Researchers in Hong Kong are worried that it could become more easily transmittable to humans and present some sort of Spanish Flu of 1918 type of scenario.

Either way, just something to keep on your radar to monitor in case it gets worse.

I have attached a few links from reputable sources for research if necessary.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/h7n9-virus.htm

http://www.who.int/csr/don/03-april-2017-ah7n9-china/en/

http://www.who.int/csr/don/05-april-2017-ah7n9-china/en/

http://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-concerned-h7n9-bird-flu-s-sudden-spread-china-n728946

Be safe everyone. Thanks for reading.
 
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#5 ·
Hey all,

I share this just to keep everyone informed and provide some information. I don't want to sound alarmist or anything.
Alarmist? Not at all. A killer avian flu pandemic is one of the BIG concerns among knowledgeable survivalists. Even a mild one like the Hong Kong flu would be bad. Something like the 1918 Flu would be disastrous. So far we've dodged the bullet each time one of these strains starts looking risky to humans; how long that will continue is anyone's guess. :eek:

Thank you for the information. :thumb:
 
#7 ·
I forgot to include that somewhere up to 1/3 of anyone infected has died. I think the majority of those cases were in China. Unknown if this was exasperated due to their overall healthcare system in conjunction with a population already suffering from respiratory woes due to pollution and such.

So yea, definitely gonna stay on my radar for a while.
 
#8 ·
The CDC report says approx. 40% death rate. They claim no cases in the US but I wonder. We had 3 shocking cases of flu death this year that caught my attention. One was here in my neighborhood. A 17 year old in perfect health. Young, active, played on several school ball teams - the picture of health. Playing ball one day, rushed to the hospital the next day and dead by that evening. Just seemed strange to me that a person in perfect health condition got taken out so quickly. All the hospital authorities said was he died from the flu. The other 2 cases were exactly the same - sudden and fatal, though 1 of them was older best I can remember.

I know nothing about the flu and I have no medical background so I have to rely on the CDC. However, something terrible took that 17 year old out fast and I don't remember hearing of anything like that happening before.

I am like breach and clear - this will be on my radar and I will inspect my supplies to see if I need to re-stock some things.
 
#11 ·
This site provides is an up-to-date global map of bird flu:

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/birdflu_monitor.php

The cluster of cases (and fatalities) centers in China, as you'd expect. The Affected Area is reported as: "Nation-wide event : Event affected more than 50% area of the country." Not sure how accurate that is, but it certainly is intriguing.

Watching the map should give a good picture of the rate at which A/H7N9 spreads. Other areas on the site documents other hazardous events such as earthquakes.
 
#13 ·
Honestly, pandemic is IMHO one of the threats all preparedists should be readying themselves for.
 
#17 ·
Some preppers seem to be derisive about Bird Flu since it died out the last time without US human-to-human cases.

The reason it probably did is interesting.

The Chinese, of course, have a society that is completely government controlled. During 2005-2007 H5N1 Avian Flu, they had a severe infestation.

The Chinese military developed a technique for eradicating the disease. As villages reported cases (and later, with pig flu) they simply went in, loaded up and moved the villagers in trucks, and then scorched earth burned the entire village; huts, livestock, and every shred than could hold infective agents.

They relocated the villager to clean dirt.

This likely saved the world from a pandemic. And yes, it gets the young people, since Cytokine Storm is from enhanced immune response.
 
#18 ·
Some preppers seem to be derisive about Bird Flu since it died out the last time without US human-to-human cases.

The reason it probably did is interesting.

The Chinese, of course, have a society that is completely government controlled. During 2005-2007 H5N1 Avian Flu, they had a severe infestation.

The Chinese military developed a technique for eradicating the disease. As villages reported cases (and later, with pig flu) they simply went in, loaded up and moved the villagers in trucks, and then scorched earth burned the entire village; huts, livestock, and every shred than could hold infective agents.
They relocated the villager to clean dirt.

This likely saved the world from a pandemic. And yes, it gets the young people, since Cytokine Storm is from enhanced immune response.
Interesting. I think the exact opposite. They have the ability to practice biological warfare on their own. Measure response and test different live scenarios.

For example, the current strain is the perfect biological weapon. It can be released and effect those in targeted, and have mild but not "sustained" person to person transmission. This allow for contamination of say a water supply without worry of that contamination coming home.
 
#21 ·
When we lived in China during the Bird Flu scare, our Chinese friend was telling about the SARs times. He said at that time, people were to 'shelter in place' in their high rise apartments. Volunteers, not clear how they were picked, would take money your slipped under your door to buy supplies to leave at your door. Chinese city culture is to buy your supplies pretty much on a day to day basis, so our, stock up pantry concept always puzzled our friend. Anyway, just wanted to point out different cultures will respond differently.

We also had funny conversations about long term supplies and the government. They're told the government has the long term supply of rice in storage... but when I calculated what a pile of rice for 20M people for 10 yrs would look like, the answer was .... ah, the building isn't that big.... ah.... yes...

inMichigan
 
#22 ·
Oddly shelter in place seems to be the best idea and something many of us are ready for. A well stocked pantry, and decent cleaning supply are two things most of us already have on hand. The issue is that human to human contact that we have to have. And since our society is in buildings with crappy air circulation and recycled air, germs spread faster and wider. Since I stopped working in an office environment have gotten sick way less. Compared to when I got the swine flu, I am way better off now.
 
#23 ·
Sooner or later Mother Nature will take off the soft, kid gloves and unleash another pandemic killer flu virus. It is only a matter of time. When she does, it will hit hard and fast, move like the waves of a flood and wash over people in so many unexpected ways. The 1918 Spanish Flu went around the world at least 4 times in a series of waves and killed millions of people. I look for the next killer flu to do the same thing but with a higher mortality rate approaching in the billions because we're so closely packed together like sardines.
 
#24 ·
I am a little rusty on the N95 mask. Several years ago these masks were praised as a much needed item for a flu kit. But, I am finding now many people speaking against them or at least against what I thought they are for. I thought they were to keep a person from inhaling a bug/virus. But, now some are saying they are to keep us from infecting others. Which is it? I am all for doing whatever I can to not infect others. Just wondering how easy it will be to keep a mask on a very sick person who is having trouble breathing much less breathing through a mask? I do believe the best defense would be to stay home and isolate from society. However, sooner or later a grandchild will visit with germs from school, the mail person will deliver infected mail or somehow - if you live close to other people - the chance of being infected will happen.

Thanks for the info about Vitamin C. I went most of the winter rarely seeing my grands (ages 8 and 7). They were a mess of dripping noses, coughs and sore throats all winter. My husband's health is not great and I couldn't take the chance of him being exposed by them visiting or me visiting them and bringing the germs home. At least now I know to give them large doses of Vit. C to help them.

I do not know why the 17 year old died. The news reported little about it other than saying how quickly he passed and that he died of the flu. The story went cold fast. Life is so precious. We can lose it very quickly and in so many ways.
 
#25 ·
Influenza is a droplet spread, not airborne. N95 however is necessary if you are in close contact with influenza positive patients. Droplets can spread up to 30 feet and a regular mask is not "fitted" to act as a filter.

All masks will saturate and become ineffective. Know the wearable life span of your mask.

An infected patient would do well wearing a regular mask. The purpose is to contain the sneeze cough droplet spread. But again remember, all surfaces are infectious. Positive patient coughs in hand, that hand touches the door handle. You open the door....

Also, be aware an infected person with the typical influenza virus will shed the virus a couple days before and up to 10 days after the onset of fever.

Keep in mind, most spread of influenza occurs from touching contaminated surfaces. and then touching your eyes, nose, mouth.... ? How many slobbering kids were in that pull out seat in the shopping cart before you started pushing it?

Do you own research on Vit C and check with your doc before initiating high dosing. My suggestion was in the presence of an active H7N9 infection in the SHTF situation, not as a daily course.
 
#34 ·
Finally, Maybe People Will Stop Thinking I'm Crazy...

SARS should have been a wake-up call, but I was a bit slow. I've been lugging goggles and masks on my international flights for 3 years since the Ebola crisis. I figure they nest together, take up space vacated by the forbidden liquids, and could come in handy in other conditions as well. I carry them in carry-on, but, yes, I do get close to 50# checked these days, too.
 
#35 ·
I worked with a RN who swore by green tea and lemon juice. She said it must be a real freshly squeezed lemon. I say this because the vitamin C. Anytime I feel a cold coming on. I begin drinking green tea and us the squeezed concentrate. I believe it helps. Not sure how much but it seems as if I don't get nearly as sick. With young kids it seems the colds just keep going around.
 
#38 ·
generally I think its called evolution.

Personally I wouldn't put it past the Chinese to "test" their bad bugs on their populace, gotta make up for those outlaws having more than one kid ya know:taped:

Thing about it is though if it kills the host too quick the transmission rate goes to poo and the thing burns itself out. idk, but I am definitely keeping the eyes on this one.
 
#41 ·
Not to be alarmist BUT am a little alarmed

This is still not very viable for human to human transmission but the current mortality rate for H7N9 when humans do manage to contract this is pretty damn scary. Over 80% of people develop pneumonia and over 40% die. If this were to mutate to an easily human to human transmissible virus, it would eclipse the mortality rate of the Spanish flu epidemic.

This definitely has the potential for a SHTF scenario if the virus makes that jump. I am getting daily Google news alerts on H7N9 until this dies off.
 
#42 ·
This is still not very viable for human to human transmission but the current mortality rate for H7N9 when humans do manage to contract this is pretty damn scary. Over 80% of people develop pneumonia and over 40% die. If this were to mutate to an easily human to human transmissible virus, it would eclipse the mortality rate of the Spanish flu epidemic.

This definitely has the potential for a SHTF scenario if the virus makes that jump. I am getting daily Google news alerts on H7N9 until this dies off.
yup.

this shouldn't be an issue, but after they seemingly made not effort to restrict travel to ebola-torn countries in Africa, I suspect they'll close the doors long after it's too late for h7n9 or whatever is next.
 
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