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8/25/18 - Ebola outbreak now at 105 cases, and bordering countries are on alert

80K views 607 replies 73 participants last post by  Surveyor 
#1 ·
#540 ·
Assuming the count is right, they do seem to be making progress in preventing the geometric growth rate from happening.

"The epidemiological situation of the Ebola Virus Disease dated July 6, 2019 :
Since the beginning of the epidemic, the cumulative number of cases is 2,408, of which 2,314 are confirmed and 94 are probable. In total, there were 1,625 deaths (1,531 confirmed and 94 probable) and 668 people healed.
323 suspected cases under investigation;
10 new confirmed cases, including 6 in Beni, 3 in Mabalako and 1 in Mangurujipa;
7 new confirmed case deaths:
1 community death in Mangurujipa;
6 deaths in CTEs, including 2 in Beni, 2 in Butembo and 2 in Katwa;
1 person cured exit of the CTE of Komanda."

https://mailchi.mp/sante.gouv.cd/ebola_kivu_07juil19?e=884e93ec62
 
#541 ·
Another local update from the Ugandan side of the border.

Security Situation Report (SSR)
a. TWO EBOLA SCREENING CENTRES BURNT IN KASESE: Police are hunting for persons accused of burning two Ebola-screening centres at the Uganda-DR Congo border in Kasese district. “We suspect that the group of suspects could have masterminded the destruction of the centres, after a 19-year-old boy from DR Congo, with a high fever was rushed to Bwera Hospital after screening,” said a source from the village health team at the border. According to the health minister, Dr. Jane Ruth Acheng, no other cases have been registered in Kasese. (New Vision, Pg.5, Fri. 5 Jul. 2019).
 
#542 ·
It hit Goma.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/15/ebola-virus-reaches-congolese-city-of-goma

That was one of the warning signs to it becoming a regional issue.

If it get entenched there you may see it spread outside Congo.
Big day IMO.

Seems like this was a close call but it was caught

“Because of the speed with which the patient was identified and isolated, and the identification of all the other bus passengers coming from Butembo, the risk of it spreading in the rest of the city of Goma is small,” the health ministry said.
 
#545 ·
The disease is probably working on becoming endemic.

Instead of crossovers from 'whatever' to people, a pool of humans will keep it active.

Still will be crossovers from the wild which will give regular virulence upgrades.

The new smallpox. [can't say the new polio since that hasn't been wiped out in humans yet].
 
#549 ·
Latest local news from Uganda

3. Security Situation Report (SSR)
a. DR CONGO CONFIRMS FIRST EBOLA CASE IN CITY OF GOMA ON BORDER WITH RWANDA: The Ebola virus has reached the Congolese city of Goma, a major transit hub that is home to more than 1 million people on the Rwandan border. The case, which was confirmed Sunday by the country's Ministry of Health, has raised fears that the virus could make its way across the porous border into still, uninfected Rwanda - something health experts have been working desperately to prevent. The ministry announced Sunday that a sick pastor had arrived in the regional center by bus from the northeastern city of Butembo, where the virus first struck last September. As a result of the speed in which the patient was quickly isolated and transferred to an Ebola treatment center, the risk of the disease spreading in Goma was low. The bus driver and the 18 other passengers were all isolated and vaccinated. Since the latest outbreak began in the Democratic Republic of Congo last August, the virus has ravaged the northeastern provinces of North Kivu -- where Goma and Butembo are located -- and neighboring Ituri. A total of 2,489 cases have been reported in the central African nation, killing a total of 1,665 people. 3,000 health workers in Goma had been vaccinated, and that the sick pastor is being treated in the Ebola Treatment Center in Goma, run by the DRC Ministry of Health and Doctors without Borders. In June, it made the long-feared jump across the DRC border to neighboring Uganda, although at this stage those isolated cases appear to be contained. (https://edition.cnn.com/2019/07/14/health/ebola-outbreak-goma-drc/index.html. Accessed on 18 Jul. 2019)
 
#550 ·
More from Uganda

Snippet from AfricaNews article posted 11 hours ago

The World Health Organisation (WHO) will work with authorities in Uganda to vaccinate about 590 fishmongers at the Mpondwe market, following the discovery that one of them vomited at the Ugandan market on July 11 before dying in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

“The surveillance teams established that she had four episodes of vomiting on the day she was in the country,” read part of a joint statement on Wednesday.

‘‘We are yet to establish the woman’s movements or who had transported her or her goods,’‘ it added.


On July 12, the trader travelled to Beni in DRC and was admitted in the Beni Ebola Treatment Unit on July 13. She died on July 15 after testing positive for Ebola.


Full Article here: https://www.africanews.com/2019/07/...llance-after-who-reports-new-ebola-incident//
 
#551 ·
"Laying on hands" without washing them between patients...

THIS is what happens as a result of just ONE visiting pastor who went from church to church and laid his hands on hundreds of the sick to "cure" them -- They're cured all right. Pretty soon most of those cases won't have any more worries, ever.

EVOLUTION OF THE EBOLA EPIDEMIC IN THE PROVINCES OF NORTH KIVU AND ITURI

Friday, July 19th, 2019

The epidemiological situation of the Ebola Virus Disease dated 18 July 2019 :

Since the beginning of the epidemic, the cumulative number of cases is 2,546, of which 2,452 confirmed and 94 probable. In total, there were 1,715 deaths (1,621 confirmed and 94 probable) and 721 people healed.
478 suspected cases under investigation;
14 new confirmed cases, including 6 in Beni, 5 in Mandima, 1 in Katwa, 1 in Mabalako and 1 in Mambasa;
10 new confirmed cases deaths:
6 community deaths, 2 in Beni, 2 in Mandima, 1 in Mabalako and 1 in Mambasa;
4 CTE deaths, 2 in Butembo, 1 in Katwa and 1 in Mabalako;
3 people healed out of CTE Beni.
Yes, that's right -- there are nearly 500 suspected cases, plus another six community deaths (which lead to more suspected cases). If the DRC ever had a hope of containing the disease, that one (now dead) pastor may have finished it.

And just to make sure the disaster was complete, the pastor took the bus home to Goma to die.

(shaking head)

Keep watch and stay safe.
 
#552 ·
More from Uganda....

Security Situation Report (SSR)
a. POWDER KEG NATURE OF THE EBOLA OUTBREAK: Mpondwe, a Ugandan border market, has become a focal point for possible contagion beyond the DRC. A Congolese fishmonger vomited in Mpondwe several times on July 11th, a few days before she died upon her return to Congo, and a second fish trader who spent time there died of Ebola in the DRC on Tuesday, the WHO said, citing a Ugandan health ministry report. Twelve people have been identified as at high risk of catching Ebola from the fishmonger. But local official Wilson Agaba said authorities had been slow to send gloves and chlorine solution to medics in the market area, and some residents were refusing to help trace the fishmonger’s contacts for fear of testing positive for Ebola and being isolated. The health ministry suspected that, while infected, the fishmonger also went to Gisenyi in Rwanda on business, and to Goma, a Congolese border city of more than one million that serves as a regional and international gateway and where a pastor died of the disease this month. The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene said the pastor’s death illustrated “the powder-keg nature of this ... outbreak”. (https://www.irishtimes.com/news/wor...-entered-rwanda-and-uganda-says-who-1.3960771. Accessed on 22 Jul. 2019)
 
#554 ·
Can the President do better?

First, I have to say that I have been extremely impressed with the Ministry of Health's commitment to compiling data into an informative newsletter which is (was) emailed DAILY to anyone who requested to be on the mailing list.

Kudos to them for their excellence and diligence.

I have no idea how to sign up for the DRC President's newsletters, if there are any.

Change in coordination of the response to Ebola Virus Disease

A communiqué of the Presidency of the Republic announced this Saturday, July 20, 2019, the establishment of a technical secretariat under the direct supervision of the Head of State to coordinate the response against the EVD in North Kivu and Ituri. This technical secretariat is headed by Professor Jean-Jacques Muyembe, who was also chairman of the laboratory committee in coordinating the current response since August 2018.

As a result of the change and out of respect for the new arrangements, the Minister of Health, Dr. Oly Ilunga Kalenga, has resigned to give the new team appointed by the Presidency every chance of success. In his letter of resignation, he recalled that the uniqueness of the government's position in the face of the epidemic was important to avoid creating harmful confusion for the rest of the response. Dr. Oly Ilunga Kalenga's resignation letter is available here .

As a result, all communications related to the response will now be managed directly by the Presidency. Thus, this newsletter is the latest newsletter on the Ebola outbreak sent by the press team of the Ministry of Health. Thank you for having followed us all these months.
Resounding applause to the staff of the Ministry of Health for keeping us all so well informed. We can only hope that the President's staff follow your excellent example.

Keep watch and stay safe.
 
#555 ·
More local news...

Security Situation Report (SSR)
a. RELATIVES STORM HEALTH UNIT, TAKE BODY OF EBOLA SUSPECT: A scuffle ensured in Kikuube district on Sunday when relatives of a suspected Ebola victim attempted to take away the corpse for a traditional burial from a health centre. Health officials say a one Jawiya, 34 a resident of Senjojo Landing Site in Buhuka parish in Kyangwali sub County, died on Saturday night as his relatives took him to Buhuka Health centre. The relatives overpowered health workers, snatch the body and transported t to Nsonga Landing site before they were intercepted by security, when they had already put the body in a boat. The health office has since taken samples from the deceased which they sent to the Uganda virus institute in Entebbe for examination. (Daily Monitor, Pg.10, Tue. 23 Jul. 2019). No further information is available on this case.
 
#556 ·
WHO's Ebola "dashboard"

Here's a link to a dashboard that's still working today, July 31st (in the US), 2019 --

WHO Ebola Dashboard

While most of it isn't very useful to those of us who are not right on the spot, the top left corner contains most of the information we were used to seeing in the DRC Health Ministry's daily reports.

Keep watch and stay safe.
 
#558 ·
Two more cases in Goma

From CIDRAP --
Both of the new cases in Goma in the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC's) hard-hit North Kivu province are family members of a man recently identified as the city's second case, the Associated Press (AP) reported today, citing Ebola response workers. One is the man's 1-year-old daughter, and the other case—confirmed shortly after—is his wife.

The man, reportedly a miner who had traveled to Ituri province, died Wednesday after having spent several days at home with his large family, according to the AP report. The family members are considered high-risk contacts. Goma has now reported four Ebola cases...
Given that a "large family" in DRC runs to dozens if not hundreds of members, Goma could be looking at thousands of potential transmission vectors.

Keep watch and stay safe.
 
#559 ·
No news

Am I the only one here who thinks that when it comes to Ebola epidemics, "no news is BAD news"?

The last Ebola situation report by the DRC Ministry of Health was on August 1, a week ago. There have been no other reports since then, and the WHO's "Ebola dashboard" is difficult to interpret, especially for those of us who are unfamiliar with the geography of the DRC.

But one thing I'm sure of, based on past fiascos -- when the numbers start going down the week immediately after a breakout in a major city, and three weeks after an idiot pastor spread the illness among hundreds of devout Christians, it's because the people who are counting aren't counting all the cases -- either because they haven't found them yet, or because they are being prevented from counting them.

Whether they're being prevented from counting all the cases by war, uprisings, or simply the naive paranoia of the local populations is moot. My main concern is that we get the real numbers, and that they be available in the kind of transparent report the DRC Ministry of Health formerly issued daily.

Keep watch and stay safe.
 
#561 ·
It's in Goma.

Goma has an international airport and a shantytown slum... if the disease takes hold in the shantytown they'll never stop it..

All it takes is ONE infected person to fly from Goma Int'l to anywhere else in Africa....
 
#563 · (Edited)
Yeah, I've been sick with stomach bug/diahrehea, flu since yesterday, it is scary to think that if I were in the DR I might be hauled off to an Ebola treatment facility where my chance of catching ebola would increase dramatically. I just read an article where people were complaining and threatening to burn the ebola facilities down because their family members are being taken away for having flu/diahrehea, and that they have had those issues since forever,now the flu is equating possible ebola and they are taking steps for peope with flu symptoms because they overlap ebola symptoms, so more people are getting caught in the dragnet. This is why suspected, vs. confirmed cases are important but it is also creating an environment of fear where people ho do havethe symptoms arn't reporting them because it may only be the flu and getting taken away is a bit like a chance of a death sentence for them.

None the less no big change here just a slow and steady deathflow, but still the common flu is killing more people globally. Way more risk if this ramps but the situation is not greatly spiraling out of control.

The scale of the issue isnot to be underestimated.
NewYorker said:
around half of all Ebola patients admitted to treatment centers in eastern Congo aren’t part of any known chain of transmission. In other words, the infected person has caught Ebola from somebody whom disease investigators haven’t yet identified.
https://www.newyorker.com/science/elements/is-ebola-evolving-into-a-more-deadly-virus
 
#566 ·
https://www.voanews.com/episode/ebola-fears-slow-crossings-drc-rwanda-border-3975286

Border slowdown

Antiparasite drug being trialed as a way to strengthen immunity to Ebola.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2019/08/ebola-outbreak-grows-6-drc

Health care workers continue to become infected.
"In the last 21 days, 14 new cases were reported among health workers from Mandima (5), Beni (4), and one each in Katwa, Mambasa, Masereka, Oicha, and Vuhovi. Cumulatively, 149 (5% of all cases) healthcare workers have been infected to date," the WHO said.

"a study from Boston Children's Hospital suggests that an anti-parasitic drug, nitazoxanide, enhances the immune system's ability to detect Ebola."

"No new cases have been recorded in Goma. As of Aug 3, all 256 contacts related to the first confirmed case in Goma Health Zone finished their 21-day follow up period."

Good grief, re-using ebola needles is infecting others?

https://www.statnews.com/2019/08/09...in-drc-if-outbreak-response-does-not-improve/

“Even if the infection prevention and control efforts have yielded some progress, the relatively large proportion of cases due to reuse of material (e.g., syringes, needles, and perfusion tubes) is unacceptable,” Rollin wrote.
 
#567 ·
Good grief, re-using ebola needles is infecting others?

https://www.statnews.com/2019/08/09...in-drc-if-outbreak-response-does-not-improve/

“Even if the infection prevention and control efforts have yielded some progress, the relatively large proportion of cases due to reuse of material (e.g., syringes, needles, and perfusion tubes) is unacceptable,” Rollin wrote.
This is definately something that hasn't been in the minds eye on this issue and how it might effect the west. really good of you to raise this.


Thank goodness there is no opiate crisis there, think how fast that could spread in the west with shared IV use of drugs - if that actually happens (I suspect it does unless there are HARM reduction programs that hand out and do needle exchanges)


Wow that could be a real wildfire point if it ever actually got entrenched in the US.

https://pharmajet.com/needle-reuse-global-problem-still-major-issue-u-s/


This is actually an argument for HARM reduction programs such as safe injection and needle exchange programs to benefit general public health.

https://sdtreatmentcenter.com/california-treatment/debate-on-injection-facilities/

The contageous disease risk to public health might provide more than simply providing drug treament and harm reduction strategies for drug users -- instead these programs would contribute to general public health in a context of bloodborn illness gaining traction in the US as a measure to slow the spread of diseases like Ebola should they ever find themselves in the US uncontrollably.
 
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