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Search: Posts Made By: leadcounsel
Forum: Coronavirus 04-23-2020, 11:23 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
Do you think medical doctors are risking their...

Do you think medical doctors are risking their medical licenses to violate CDC guidance and over-report by reporting people with no CV19 symptoms (e.g. someone eaten by an alligator or dying in a car...
Forum: Coronavirus 04-23-2020, 05:37 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
Well, that NY data suggests two things. It's...

Well, that NY data suggests two things.

It's highly transmissible. And it's already killed confirmed (and probably a lot more given under-reported deaths) more in 3 months than the flu does in a...
Forum: Coronavirus 04-15-2020, 02:50 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
Italy has the #2 highest death count (confirmed...

Italy has the #2 highest death count (confirmed anyway) on the globe. It posted a small decrease in daily deaths, but still has about 600 daily. Could be a trend, or an anomaly, or lack of testing.
Forum: Coronavirus 04-05-2020, 10:54 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
Let's explore this a bit so we are on the same...

Let's explore this a bit so we are on the same page.

I understand "herd immunity" to mean everyone gets it and develops natural immunity, and those that don't die.

Okay, so if that's the...
Forum: Coronavirus 04-05-2020, 05:40 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
Yesterday we added 1600. 9650 right now,...

Yesterday we added 1600.
9650 right now, adding 1089 so far today. We'll add another 500 today on top of that. So we'll surpass 10,000 today. Recall, we hit 3000 on Tuesday (that took a month),...
Forum: Coronavirus 04-05-2020, 03:15 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
No other cause of death works on an exponential...

No other cause of death works on an exponential spread or death like CV19.

It only takes a few months of the fast current doubling trends of the current death figures for the figures to overtake...
Forum: Coronavirus 04-04-2020, 05:07 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
Well, not exactly. In the last few years...

Well, not exactly.

In the last few years I've had sudden emergency medical care needs for issues that occurred while I was in the comfort of my own home. Had I not gotten emergency care, in a few...
Forum: Coronavirus 04-04-2020, 04:21 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
Yeah, I strongly distrust these 'flu death'...

Yeah, I strongly distrust these 'flu death' statistics. I've known nobody that died of the flu to my knowledge.
Forum: Coronavirus 04-04-2020, 10:46 AM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
That is tragic. I mean no disrespect but it's an...

That is tragic. I mean no disrespect but it's an example that one person's foolishness in continuing to expose oneself to a virus is not only bad for that person but their loved ones too. I assume...
Forum: Coronavirus 04-04-2020, 01:04 AM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
Looking backwards at the exponential math in...

Looking backwards at the exponential math in practice will tell us what the future possibly holds, absent some radical shift in trajectory (weather, vaccine, social behaviors, etc.).

These are,...
Forum: Coronavirus 04-02-2020, 03:26 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
Doing some quick calculations and looking at the...

Doing some quick calculations and looking at the excel spreadsheet, it seems the R factor is around R4 to R5 territory, given the initial infections early February compared to over 238,000 US...
Forum: Coronavirus 04-02-2020, 01:47 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
We can debate death % and rates ad nasuem. About...

We can debate death % and rates ad nasuem. About 15% go on life support, with 5% critical. There is compelling evidence that RESOLVED cases (which seem to be the most important metric*) result in...
Forum: Coronavirus 04-02-2020, 01:06 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
100% agreed. And I'll add that the "experts" are...

100% agreed. And I'll add that the "experts" are generally doing a serious dis-service by not explaining this to the public. The TREND, if it were explained and widely understood, would scare...
Forum: Coronavirus 03-31-2020, 08:31 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
China's numbers are useless and lack any...

China's numbers are useless and lack any credibility. All we know is that they first discovered it late December or early January, and by 23rd of January the infections and death numbers were so...
Forum: Coronavirus 03-31-2020, 01:06 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
This is all a very interesting discussion and I...

This is all a very interesting discussion and I appreciate others' views, even Peters.

Question: If a bad swimmer is washed overboard and falls off the boat into the ocean, not wearing life vest,...
Forum: Coronavirus 03-31-2020, 12:30 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
Ha! This had to be stated! Yeah, it's...

Ha! This had to be stated!

Yeah, it's almost like global leaders might know something ...
Forum: Coronavirus 03-31-2020, 01:28 AM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
First observed by a Doctor in China in mid-late...

First observed by a Doctor in China in mid-late December 2019. He reported his alarming findings and was discredited and arrested. Later died. And was exonerated by an apologetic Chinese...
Forum: Coronavirus 03-31-2020, 01:23 AM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
Yup, no problem. The calming thing is that...

Yup, no problem.

The calming thing is that maybe millions have it and have no severe symptoms at all.

The terrifying thing is if you're showing high fever, trouble breathing, and other...
Forum: Coronavirus 03-31-2020, 01:07 AM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
The formula would be (dead) / (dead + recovered...

The formula would be (dead) / (dead + recovered aka total resolved cases)

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

It would currently be 3200 dead divided by 9200 (dead + recovered)

Or about...
Forum: Coronavirus 03-29-2020, 08:04 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
The Diamond Princess gives us a 'best case'...

The Diamond Princess gives us a 'best case' scenario of a quarantined population with limited spread, immediate testing and isolation attempts, and excellent medical care among an affluent population...
Forum: Coronavirus 03-28-2020, 05:51 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
The economic impacts of this have killed ZERO as...

The economic impacts of this have killed ZERO as in Z-E-R-0 people yet to my understanding. None. Nada.

So all this talk about the "economy" when it's mainly at this point varying degrees of...
Forum: Coronavirus 03-28-2020, 04:46 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
It's comical in a sad comical way when a naysayer...

It's comical in a sad comical way when a naysayer says, the deaths are only A.

And within a day, A has doubled...

And the naysayers still don't understand and they repeat it, saying, the...
Forum: Coronavirus 03-27-2020, 08:37 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
The lowest death rate total I've seen is 1%. So...

The lowest death rate total I've seen is 1%. So if we stop all numbers now and assume them to be accurate, there will be thousands more dead.

But of course, the numbers we see are woefully...
Forum: Coronavirus 03-27-2020, 08:35 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
I've read enough reports around the globe that...

I've read enough reports around the globe that lead me to conclude:

* Inadequate testing of the dead because of not enough tests or lack of will to get real numbers.
* Inadequate testing of the...
Forum: Coronavirus 03-27-2020, 07:19 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
Exponential math of corona virus

I felt it should be helpful to explain to others about exponential math, R-naught and so forth. I'm not an expert, but have some math background and have seen it explained really well.

For...
Forum: Coronavirus 03-22-2020, 06:29 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
I'm trying to get to truth, not be argumentative....

I'm trying to get to truth, not be argumentative.

There's also going to be a % of dead that do not get tested, based on apathy, not having enough tests, or enough manpower to ration the time to...
Forum: Coronavirus 03-22-2020, 04:10 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
So, do you improve your gas mileage by just...

So, do you improve your gas mileage by just saying you're going to drive farther? Illogical.

Gas mileage in a vehicle is KNOWN miles driven / KNOWN gallons used. Not theoretical undriven miles...
Forum: Coronavirus 03-21-2020, 09:38 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
I think we can all agree we have garbage data. ...

I think we can all agree we have garbage data. Lack of ability to test, lack of desire to test, and hiding information. We don't and won't know accurately the infected or dead figures. Widely...
Forum: Coronavirus 03-10-2020, 01:35 AM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
If there's a fire in a building, a lot of people...

If there's a fire in a building, a lot of people (often more than from the fire) will die of smoke inhalation. And often most property damage is from the smoke, and from the water used to extinguish...
Forum: Coronavirus 03-07-2020, 05:16 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
@Aerindel I'll just point out that yes, I...

@Aerindel

I'll just point out that yes, I agree, millions can and likely will be infected and die. That's the point I was making. This is a big deal in spite of governments verbally downplaying....
Forum: Coronavirus 03-07-2020, 02:02 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
Nobody can predict what will happen. But if...

Nobody can predict what will happen. But if someone isn't at least paying attention and concerned, and preparing for a worst case scenario, I think they are foolish.

Here are the tells:
1. ...
Forum: Coronavirus 03-06-2020, 01:42 AM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
USA: 233 total infected 14 dead 9 recovered...

USA:
233 total infected
14 dead
9 recovered
23 total resolved
14/23 = 61% fatality rate of those closed cases.

If we stopped adding infected here and those remaining 210 go on the same TREND...
Forum: Coronavirus 03-05-2020, 08:30 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
Unemployment % does not factor non-working...

Unemployment % does not factor non-working populations, and that's correct. It factors those able and looking for work.

Opposite of CFR. Your CFR is using the total (sick) population which is...
Forum: Coronavirus 03-05-2020, 08:25 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
Yup. And the 2016 Golden State Warriors...

Yup.

And the 2016 Golden State Warriors winning % becomes 4% (not 89% in real life), and your miles per gallon in your car drops to 3mpg. :rolleyes:

CFR is a stupidly useless way to look at...
Forum: Coronavirus 03-04-2020, 10:42 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
I'd love to do some big dollar sports betting...

I'd love to do some big dollar sports betting with some of you.

The 2016 NBA basketball season had 82 games.

After game 1, the Golden State Warriors were 1-0, with 81 games to go. You'd have...
Forum: Coronavirus 03-04-2020, 10:32 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
Listening to various medical professionals who...

Listening to various medical professionals who are explaining the more complex DNA and biology of the virus.

Appears like there are at least 2 different strains, and experts are linking them back...
Forum: Coronavirus 03-03-2020, 03:25 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
IMO the definition of case fatality rate is...

IMO the definition of case fatality rate is flawed and it's mis-named. It's not actually a rate, but it's a proportion. I think people are very confused by this casually thrown around number.
...
Forum: Coronavirus 03-03-2020, 01:58 AM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
Regarding death rates and the artificially low...

Regarding death rates and the artificially low ~2% (or whatever).

That figure assumes all the rest of the infected will live. That is NOT the trend, based on actual death rates as calculated as...
Forum: Coronavirus 03-02-2020, 05:26 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
Well, to my mind and way of thinking there is NO...

Well, to my mind and way of thinking there is NO BETTER way of risk assessment.

Take motorcycle riding. I want to know the statistical risk of serious injury or dying.

Total motorcycle...
Forum: Coronavirus 02-27-2020, 04:25 PM
Replies: 490
Views: 21,820
Posted By leadcounsel
Concur that the commonly cited 2% is a fantasy. ...

Concur that the commonly cited 2% is a fantasy.

We simply don't know and may never know. The largest hit area is China which everyone knows is under reporting. Based on daily doubling rates in...
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