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Search: Posts Made By: willthrill81
Forum: General Discussion 09-14-2018, 10:39 AM
Replies: 22
Views: 978
Posted By willthrill81
Not what I'd call realistic.

Not what I'd call realistic.
Forum: General Discussion 09-13-2018, 05:42 PM
Replies: 22
Views: 978
Posted By willthrill81
So how do you realistically and effectively...

So how do you realistically and effectively 'vaccinate' against 'blue-birds'?
Forum: General Discussion 09-12-2018, 10:50 PM
Replies: 22
Views: 978
Posted By willthrill81
So many here are saying that it's bad that many...

So many here are saying that it's bad that many people are leaving the most liberal states for more conservative states. Would it be good then if people were moving from the more conservative states...
Forum: Financial Forum 09-12-2018, 10:43 PM
Replies: 127
Views: 10,049
Posted By willthrill81
I'm not concerned over why the currencies failed...

I'm not concerned over why the currencies failed as much as the fact that many have.

I have no problem if someone wants silver over gold or vice versa. I personally like silver a bit more myself...
Forum: General Discussion 09-12-2018, 05:09 PM
Replies: 22
Views: 978
Posted By willthrill81
States with biggest gains and losses in residents

I saw this article today (it's from 2016 but a more recent analysis shows pretty much identical trends) and thought it was very telling. Surprisingly, the Forbes author did not gloss over the fact...
Forum: Financial Forum 09-12-2018, 05:01 PM
Replies: 127
Views: 10,049
Posted By willthrill81
Despite the failure of many currencies since...

Despite the failure of many currencies since 1970, gold and silver retained most of their value (i.e. buying power).

Failed currencies since 1970 include (note that some of these were not complete...
Forum: Financial Forum 09-12-2018, 11:45 AM
Replies: 127
Views: 10,049
Posted By willthrill81
Insurance against major economic woes. Fiat...

Insurance against major economic woes. Fiat currency can become worthless. History has shown repeatedly that gold and silver retain their value (or they increase in value) during economic crises. ...
Forum: Financial Forum 09-12-2018, 01:03 AM
Replies: 127
Views: 10,049
Posted By willthrill81
Meanwhile, back at the ranch...:rolleyes: ...

Meanwhile, back at the ranch...:rolleyes:

Time has still shown gold to be good insurance but a poor investment. And yes, there is a big difference between the two.
Forum: Financial Forum 09-10-2018, 03:58 PM
Replies: 127
Views: 10,049
Posted By willthrill81
As long as deflation doesn't set in too hard for...

As long as deflation doesn't set in too hard for too long, a zero inflation environment can really work well. From the 1770s until the 1910s, the country managed just fine. Yes, there were a number...
Forum: Financial Forum 09-10-2018, 10:05 AM
Replies: 127
Views: 10,049
Posted By willthrill81
And that led to practically zero inflation until...

And that led to practically zero inflation until the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913. Think about that: well over 100 years with net inflation being almost nonexistent.
Forum: Financial Forum 09-01-2018, 07:04 PM
Replies: 31
Views: 1,784
Posted By willthrill81
Take a look at the chart below. ...

Take a look at the chart below.

https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/proxy/U-vpf4Fh9MUTQNCJ99yzbOuTYeyD9qpNWN8FgD-31TbqtFeI38DkeiI4viJ_KnB0L81YiMDfh4gugGyoLzFLyyjSBAUQ-jjJljbwQ1A=s0-d

Now I don't...
Forum: Financial Forum 09-01-2018, 04:01 PM
Replies: 127
Views: 10,049
Posted By willthrill81
I thought that this thread deserved some bumping...

I thought that this thread deserved some bumping as it's been nearly a year since the last post. Perhaps it will be helpful someone.
Forum: Financial Forum 08-31-2018, 10:51 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 1,293
Posted By willthrill81
A third-world **** hole going completely belly up...

A third-world **** hole going completely belly up isn't more than a momentary blip on the global market.

The entire continent of Africa could go belly up, and the U.S. stock market would probably...
Forum: Financial Forum 08-31-2018, 10:46 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 1,239
Posted By willthrill81
Be careful with putting too many of your eggs in...

Be careful with putting too many of your eggs in one basket. I've witnessed many successful small businesses go belly up in a shockingly short period of time. Diversifying your risk is very, very...
Forum: Financial Forum 08-31-2018, 10:44 PM
Replies: 160
Views: 20,694
Posted By willthrill81
My large cap growth and mid cap growth index...

My large cap growth and mid cap growth index holdings are up 11.66% for the year.

Another predicted stock market crash that didn't happen.
Forum: Financial Forum 08-31-2018, 07:32 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 1,239
Posted By willthrill81
I've used two sites, both of which are very...

I've used two sites, both of which are very reputable, for all of my online PM purchases. Both are highly reputable, and I would highly recommend both.

The first is the widely known JM Bullion. ...
Forum: General Discussion 08-29-2018, 10:23 PM
Replies: 58
Views: 2,466
Posted By willthrill81
That's an ordinance just waiting to be knocked...

That's an ordinance just waiting to be knocked down as unconstitutional. But sadly, the attorneys fighting it on both sides will probably be the only real winners when that happens.
Forum: Financial Forum 08-18-2018, 04:13 PM
Replies: 28
Views: 1,623
Posted By willthrill81
That's because most people think Seattle =...

That's because most people think Seattle = Washington.
Forum: Financial Forum 08-18-2018, 03:26 PM
Replies: 28
Views: 1,623
Posted By willthrill81
Washington is two states: everything west of the...

Washington is two states: everything west of the Cascades, and everything east of the Cascades. The west side is green, but it is also very blue. The east side is brown but very red as well.
...
Forum: Financial Forum 08-13-2018, 05:08 PM
Replies: 28
Views: 1,623
Posted By willthrill81
That's part of it but not all of it. My own...

That's part of it but not all of it. My own state, Washington, gained $7 billion from California, but it also gained almost $5 billion from Oregon, Illinois, New York, and Alaska. I think that a...
Forum: Disaster Preparedness General Discussion 07-29-2018, 05:04 PM
Replies: 21
Views: 1,841
Posted By willthrill81
Why would you even bother? You think someone...

Why would you even bother? You think someone with IR is going to come after you?
Forum: Financial Forum 07-15-2018, 04:40 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 1,033
Posted By willthrill81
Precious metals are a lot like oil in certain...

Precious metals are a lot like oil in certain ways. It's not a question of finding it or mining it. It's a question of doing so in an economically viable way. with both precious metals and oil, we...
Forum: Financial Forum 07-10-2018, 03:47 PM
Replies: 22
Views: 2,264
Posted By willthrill81
Good for you! We should have our mortgage paid...

Good for you! We should have our mortgage paid off around the spring of 2020, not far behind you.

I believe that a primary residence owned free and clear is one of the best 'preps' out there.
Forum: Financial Forum 07-01-2018, 10:38 PM
Replies: 187
Views: 12,031
Posted By willthrill81
I would highly recommend that she gobto the White...

I would highly recommend that she gobto the White Coat Investor website to check out the finances of medical school, keeping student loan debt low, and financial life afterwards. It should be...
Forum: Disaster Preparedness General Discussion 06-04-2018, 01:29 AM
Replies: 70
Views: 4,989
Posted By willthrill81
Of course the expected value of any insurance...

Of course the expected value of any insurance premium is negative. The point is that you want to insure those risks that would be detrimental to you financially if they occurred. Disability is...
Forum: Food and water 06-04-2018, 01:23 AM
Replies: 44
Views: 40,636
Posted By willthrill81
You can get both Mylar bags and oxygen absorbers...

You can get both Mylar bags and oxygen absorbers on Amazon and other online sites; be sure to get only those that are top-rated by many people.

Oxygen absorbers do just that; they remove virtually...
Forum: Financial Forum 05-28-2018, 11:54 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 2,310
Posted By willthrill81
Those are fees imposed by the SEC and FINRA on...

Those are fees imposed by the SEC and FINRA on Robinhood, not the investor. However, Robinhood refuses to pay for such fees themselves and so passes them on to the investor. But neither the SEC nor...
Forum: Financial Forum 05-28-2018, 06:18 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 2,310
Posted By willthrill81
Wrong. "The SEC does not impose or set any...

Wrong.

"The SEC does not impose or set any of the fees that investors must pay to their brokers."
https://www.sec.gov/fast-answers/answerssec31htm.html

FINRA doesn't charge investors anything.
Forum: Disaster Preparedness General Discussion 05-26-2018, 04:25 PM
Replies: 70
Views: 4,989
Posted By willthrill81
Sadly, I'd take a sizable bet that only a...

Sadly, I'd take a sizable bet that only a minority of the frequent posters here have made anywhere near adequate plans for retirement. I'll bet most don't have life or disability insurance either.
Forum: Financial Forum 05-25-2018, 01:17 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 2,310
Posted By willthrill81
It's the same model used by many video game...

It's the same model used by many video game developers, the 'freemium' approach. You give everyone free access to the game, but if you want certain upgrades or to advance more quickly, you must pay...
Forum: Disaster Preparedness General Discussion 05-24-2018, 05:56 PM
Replies: 34
Views: 22,163
Posted By willthrill81
I own a Gerber Prodigy and must say that it's the...

I own a Gerber Prodigy and must say that it's the best knife I've ever purchased. It gets virtually identical reviews to the Ka-bar but costs about a third less.
Forum: Disaster Preparedness General Discussion 05-23-2018, 03:19 PM
Replies: 70
Views: 4,989
Posted By willthrill81
We are as prepped now as we want to be. We have...

We are as prepped now as we want to be. We have around a year's worth of food, much stored water and means of acquiring and purifying a lot more, a medical kit that would put some rural hospitals to...
Forum: Financial Forum 05-19-2018, 05:12 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 4,112
Posted By willthrill81
It's very interesting to see that the price of a...

It's very interesting to see that the price of a slave in the time of Moses (~1400 B.C.) was 30 pieces of silver, and that was apparently the same price at the time of Christ (that's what Judas sold...
Forum: Financial Forum 05-19-2018, 10:00 AM
Replies: 36
Views: 4,112
Posted By willthrill81
The theory is that there isn't nearly enough gold...

The theory is that there isn't nearly enough gold and silver to 'go around' as currency, hence, their purchasing power would increase significantly if dollars were worthless or dramatically worth...
Forum: Financial Forum 05-18-2018, 11:45 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 4,112
Posted By willthrill81
And if we really did get into a situation where...

And if we really did get into a situation where PMs were the currency of choice, their purchasing power would probably go up, possibly a lot.

You don't want the smallest unit of currency you have...
Forum: Financial Forum 05-18-2018, 04:44 PM
Replies: 160
Views: 20,694
Posted By willthrill81
Just don't confuse strategy with results. If...

Just don't confuse strategy with results. If there is a 90% chance of a ten-sided dice not coming up '10', then you should bet against '10' on every single roll. You know that you will occasionally...
Forum: Financial Forum 05-18-2018, 11:03 AM
Replies: 36
Views: 4,112
Posted By willthrill81
"Hitting people with?" "Machining?" Are you a...

"Hitting people with?" "Machining?" Are you a fabricator skilled in working with copper?

More importantly, are you saving enough for your retirement? If not, then you shouldn't even think about...
Forum: Financial Forum 05-18-2018, 01:37 AM
Replies: 36
Views: 4,112
Posted By willthrill81
Where do you plan on storing a literal ton of...

Where do you plan on storing a literal ton of copper?

What good will that ton of copper do you if the S doesn't HTF?

In a SHTF scenario, who will want your ton of copper? Once "industry gets...
Forum: Financial Forum 05-17-2018, 06:56 PM
Replies: 160
Views: 20,694
Posted By willthrill81
My valuations, I was specifically referring to...

My valuations, I was specifically referring to CAPE, which has been high for the last 26 years. The only time in that span that it wasn't above its historic average was a few months in 2008-2009...
Forum: Financial Forum 05-17-2018, 11:17 AM
Replies: 160
Views: 20,694
Posted By willthrill81
What do historic valuations have to do with...

What do historic valuations have to do with today's prices?

Look at what I said again. Compared to the historic average, valuations have been high for the last 26 years and counting. But real...
Forum: Financial Forum 05-14-2018, 03:26 PM
Replies: 160
Views: 20,694
Posted By willthrill81
CAPE has been above its historic average since...

CAPE has been above its historic average since 1992. Real returns from then until now have been above their historic average. CAPE is a terrible timing tool.
Forum: Financial Forum 05-14-2018, 11:07 AM
Replies: 160
Views: 20,694
Posted By willthrill81
And......stocks are back to where they were in...

And......stocks are back to where they were in early January.

Yet another predicted stock market crash that wasn't.

Eventually, the broken watch will be correct, and stocks will indeed...
Forum: Financial Forum 05-12-2018, 10:33 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 4,112
Posted By willthrill81
It costs more to mint 10 1/10 oz. coins than a...

It costs more to mint 10 1/10 oz. coins than a single 1 oz. coin. That's why the cost per oz. is higher with smaller coins, bars, etc.
Forum: Financial Forum 05-11-2018, 12:45 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 4,112
Posted By willthrill81
Almost without dispute, the most recognizable...

Almost without dispute, the most recognizable form of silver in the world today is the American Silver Eagle. Many people who don't buy them still know what they are and recognize them, and everyone...
Forum: Financial Forum 05-09-2018, 05:18 PM
Replies: 160
Views: 20,694
Posted By willthrill81
Most commonly, the stock market is a reflection...

Most commonly, the stock market is a reflection of what's actually going on in the economy. While the stock market itself does have an influence on the economy, the economy and people's perceptions...
Forum: Disaster Preparedness General Discussion 05-09-2018, 10:32 AM
Replies: 48
Views: 4,248
Posted By willthrill81
I've never seen a generator that small output 240...

I've never seen a generator that small output 240 volts, partly because virtually everything that draws 240 volts needs more wattage than that. A 240 volt outlet only capable of 14.6 amps is close...
Forum: Disaster Preparedness General Discussion 05-08-2018, 11:37 AM
Replies: 54
Views: 6,000
Posted By willthrill81
If the U.S. had really wanted Canada, it would...

If the U.S. had really wanted Canada, it would have taken it back in 1846. Remember "Fifty-four forty or fight?"
Forum: Financial Forum 05-07-2018, 05:35 PM
Replies: 160
Views: 20,694
Posted By willthrill81
You're confusing the unemployment rate itself...

You're confusing the unemployment rate itself with the trend in the unemployment rate.


http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/02/uetrend/

Recessions do not begin or end until the...
Forum: Disaster Preparedness General Discussion 05-07-2018, 03:50 PM
Replies: 54
Views: 6,000
Posted By willthrill81
I agree. I'm just saying that we shouldn't...

I agree. I'm just saying that we shouldn't attempt to put specific numbers like 37% on the likelihood of something cataclysmic. We simply don't have enough data to do so.
Forum: Disaster Preparedness General Discussion 05-07-2018, 11:45 AM
Replies: 54
Views: 6,000
Posted By willthrill81
You're correct of course, but my point is that...

You're correct of course, but my point is that many things that once occurred regularly do not any longer.

And a bank is not a "savings and loan." :D: And 90 years qualifies as "several...
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