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-   -   ItĚs 2019 and the SHTF (https://www.survivalistboards.com/showthread.php?t=362176)

300 Boere 08-23-2014 02:43 PM

Itís 2019 and the SHTF
 
Without going too much into whether this will happen or not (it might never happen), I seek to have a discourse about what would happen if it did.

In this scenario SA is in a state of anarchy with the black masses in revolt against their own government. The SANDF is fighting running battles against anti government groups all over the country. Marshal Law is declared. The official borders are closed. White land is seized by the ANC in order to maintain support. The black anti government groups are also seizing white land in their respective areas. Many white people have fled abroad already, but a large number remain.

So in this scenario what would white people do?

I believe places which have even the slightest prospect of safety would be swamped by white people fleeing the violence. At first many groups of farmers would establish strong holds all over the country. Eventually they will be forced to leave and join larger groups elsewhere. Ultimately large groups would be occupying only a few areas. Possibly only one area would be left, the Western Cape (Southern Western Cape), the local Coloured community would ally with the whites.

At this point the tribes will already be fracturing. For example a faction within the Zulu tribe would claim autonomy in Natal. The ANC would be trying to keep their tribal alliances intact by painting the white man as the enemy. It would be a very complex mixture of various groups fighting each other Ė fighting us.

[Just the W Cape is left] With tens of thousands of ex SADF soldiers with competent commanders we should eventually be able to consolidate our position and defend our territory against the enemy. Military training of younger men would begin in earnest.

We will need conventional weapons ASAP to counter the SANDF and other groups. Without this we will be in big trouble. I really donít know how that will play out. We will have enough money to acquire weapons, but how will the world react? China will probably hedge their bets supporting more than one faction, but not us. They know if we win they will lose South Africa. I donít know how the West will react, I hope once China gets involved that the West will side with us... hope. I also foresee a few international brigades making their way to SA similar to what happened in Spain.

Some black groups would seek protection from us and become our allies.

Once properly armed we will start acting more and more offensively. Although we would be outnumbered by a factor of at least 40-1 we will be (are) far better soldiers. We would eventually beat the enemy



I simply cannot imagine the white population not grouping together to defend themselves. They will, in such a scenario, unite against the enemy.

KeyboardKommando 08-24-2014 01:36 PM

Jan Lamprecht tried a similar wargame scenario.
Lamprecht disappeared off the radar, so my tin foil hat needs to be put on :)

He claimed:

When Rhodesia was winning the war on terror (before the West turned on her), Rhodesian whites numbered a paltry 200 000. Whites numbers are far more than that at the moment in SA. Most of them live here now.

The karoo contains a natural geographical defence against the north as the desert has to the west.

He claimed that even if the population turns on the ANC they will resort to Mugabe tactics to stay in power. One man One vote, One Time. If The ANC gets replaced it will be replaced by something more radical.

He claims that the Zimbabwean army clandestinely backed the people's war and the land invasion by providing periphal support such as bussing in people to the various farms and that support will occur with SA as well where the military will secretly supply logistical help to land invaders.

Most Afrikaners are going to do nothing other than wait for Siener's "thing" to happen.

Afrikaners and Boers can't do jack sheeet without steel fisted leadership. Just look at the old SADF and its "opvok" mentality. Leadership is the Boer and Afrikaner's archilles heel.

I will only agree to one thing: That if every white guy and gal threw their weight into this scrum and the West buggers off and does not oppose us, then survival in this fictional war-game scenario is guaranteed.

300 Boere 08-24-2014 03:29 PM

Most white people don’t want to see what is happening, those with a Mandela screensaver and who refer to themselves as African. Right now they don’t associate with a white cause, they think people planning for anything other than a pretty beautiful rainbow nation to be reactionary right wing nuts. No matter how liberal some white people are, once we are under attack they will change their tune immediately.

Until the SHTF white people will continue to be divided, most wont plan at all. Luckily there are some groups doing some planning, like the Suidlanders. I have my reservations about whether they will be able to do what they claim... but something is better than nothing.

Strong Boer leadership does not exist right now, that’s for sure. Once there is civil war I am sure that situation will change in the right direction.


Living in Natal where the largest Indian population outside of India reside makes me wonder what their fate will be. Indian bosses are extremely hard on the Zulu workers, I see this on an almost daily basis. I speak Zulu and I like to make idle conversation wherever I go. I am told that they, the Zulu, would much rather work for a white man. This may sound like pure anecdotal evidence, but anybody even vaguely familiar with business in SA would tell you the same. The Zulu also feel that the Indians are taking over their land, Natal. There is a great deal of animosity between the two groups and in a SHTF scenario the Indians would be annihilated by the Zulu.

300 Boere 08-25-2014 07:25 AM

[For those inclined to think with their emotion this is purely a theoretical exercise, so don’t stress... at least not too much yet]

South Africa: 4,927,757 males, age 18-49

2019, 5 months into civil war, the ANC and its security forces are still largely intact

Opposing forces

ANC led SANDF

Army
Active personal 39 400

Navy
Active personal 6000

Air force
Active personal 11 200
(Aircraft 226)

Militia possibly up to 1000 000


Black opposition

Fragmentary groups opposing the ANC (to a lesser degree opposing the Europeans), competing with rivals, often based on specific territorial loyalty. Small arms, acquiring conventional arms. Possibly up to 1000 000 guerrilla fighters split between varies factions. (Basotho/Lesotho Cavalry 10 000). Some military experience.

European opposition
United 300 000 guerrilla fighters, small arms acquiring conventional arms. Cavalry 20 000. Experienced SADF commanders and soldiers.

Figures and the “opposition” are there just to build some structure to this scenario, they may look very different in practicality, please feel free to modify...

Right now the SANDF is in critical decline. They also face massive capability constraints mostly due to their incompetence. Obviously during conflict they would try “ruk reg”, but by then (Real conflict) the few white officers and commanders left would be gone. Right now they are all that’s holding the SANDF back from almost total ineptness.

When roads and bridges are closed or destroyed, like they are in most wars, Cavalry would prove unsurpassed in mobility in our often rugged terrain which is South Africa. For this reason I believe that in an extended civil war, which it may likely turn into, the Boer kommando tactics of old will once again be seen in veld... right down to the biltong.

Even with what little arms we have right now we could still hold Cape Town long enough to purchase arms from abroad in time to mount a strong enough defence to survive as a fighting force and consolidate our position.

KeyboardKommando 08-25-2014 02:01 PM

Where is the UN in all of this? They usually stick their noses and blue helmets in everything

300 Boere 08-25-2014 03:02 PM

The UN is only really sent in to further the interests of the West in some way or another. If they see nothing to be gained I doubt they will mobilise in strength.

It will be one of those “uh... uh... oh we have received reports of genocide and and but we don’t have proof of genocide per se” etc etc like Rwanda.

If the West decides there is some pie to be had they will send in the UN, although technically neutral they could be deployed in such a manner as to obstruct the Saffers from offensive operations. Through propaganda the war could be made to look like we are the aggressors. That is if the West side with the ANC. I don’t believe this is guaranteed because the ANC is not a friend to the West anymore.

Emjay 08-26-2014 04:54 AM

What if all these experienced ex- SADF officers (who are now family men) don't want to get involved in a war?
What if all the "whites" don't pull together- the English and Afrikaans are pole opposites in mentality? As stated above, leadership would need to be decisive (not likely).
What benefit would there be in fighting for your place in Africa as a white man, when Africa clearly does not want you? How is that a future of security? With whom would the new "Republic of Cape Town" trade?
It is well and good to look at "what if" scenarios, but Saffers love to dramatize this.
There will be no war declared by the majority, just a gradual wearing down and beating down of the minority- your emigration thread is evidence that you are not planning to fight, as you need to look at the future of your daughter. Same with about 70% of other Saffers.
There will likely be no definitive moment when one can decide, "right, now is the time to fight". The majority have the time, they can wait. Can you afford to wait?

300 Boere 08-26-2014 06:50 AM

Emjay - Remember that this war scenario is just that, a theoretical state of affairs only, it is but a small possibility in the wealth of possible outcomes. This specific one obviously lays more on the worst case scenario spectrum. Also consider the context of the website. I want to be prepared for as many things that might fly my way as possible.

Your scenario “There will be no war declared by the majority, just a gradual wearing down and beating down of the minority” is the road we are on at the moment. My scenario is where a point is reached along this ark when a civil war breaks out in 2019.

I never said the majority would declare war on anybody, it would be a civil insurrection - within the majority. We would not be the reason war begins, we would simply be fodder in it

Yes I want my family out, I have reasons to do this beyond what I would share on a public forum. In spite of everything my wife has told me that she would divorce me if I forced her to leave SA, her everything is here in the country we love. I love them both more than my country and I will get them out no matter what anybody thinks of me.

As I have stated before on many posts, once my family is out and safe and once/if there is civil war I will return to fight. If war broke out and I can’t get them out I will fight.

You ask why?... why would I want to fight?... why does anybody fight?... For his people and his country, in this case it would be to keep both alive. Which nations or country would exist today if humans did not?

Why would white people unite in such a scenario? Simple answer: They have to in order to survive.

Are you implying that in a Civil War in 2019 4.5 or lets even say 2.5 million white people would remain totally passive?

If you are implying this and you are correct I am going to have to burn some books

300 Boere 08-26-2014 08:49 AM

I hope you guys don’t think I am some nut because I started this thread... I am actually just your regular patriotic South African who loves his country, with perhaps a touch of OCD. I am not as vocal in public as I am here about my concerns. I have a dislike of people that say they hate South Africa or people in it. If the ANC even just did an average job I would be kinda ok and happy living in SA and won’t emigrate...won’t even consider it. Black people deserve a better government too, especially the rural poor.

One great thing about SA is how friendly and hospitable we are Rich, Poor, White, Black, Coloured and Indian. This is the vast majority, this is in spite of the violence committed by criminals, and the politics.

I speak Zulu and Xhosa with some fanikalo and I understand their culture better than most white people. I was raised in the countryside and I had black friends I used to fish with and we would build mouse traps and make ketties together, climb mountains... all that fun stuff, later I made black friends in school, too young to really understand all that Apartheid stuff at the time. Today I have many black clients and some black friends, some have been in business from before 1994, others are entrepreneurs or hold normal jobs. I also make allot of small talk with the man on the street, petrol attendants, casual workers, Sipho on his bicycle... most of them are non violent, friendly, family orientated and peaceful. I have been to two black weddings before and they were massive affairs, I have never seen so much beer and meat on display – loved it

On the flip side, their communalistic culture creates issues. Their standards and solutions to problems rub the Western paradigm the wrong way. Taking personal responsibility is not important, the community represents you. Individualism and innovation is suppressed to lessen friction and competition, to maintain communalistic ideals. They take care of the old and the sick and they help thy neighbour, so their culture has many good aspects. Gogo’s (grannies) stay in the lives of their grandchildren and community, not shipped off to some institution like we Westerners do.

Anyway, so the people are good, but out of control criminals (Gangsters killing us and Politicians allowing it) are praying off the previous infrastructure to line their own pockets unchecked mostly because the underlying culture of a communalistic society is not well equipped to rectify the problem though its own paradigm with any due ease, but their culture will seek equilibrium.

My fears do not stem from animosity, but from a realisation that if/when they confront their own government it’s going get ugly for everybody – I don’t anticipate that the ANC will accept electoral defeat even when the masses demand it. Not saying they will right now, but they will eventually challenge their previous liberators for bread. When this happens white people will have to be strong and united to survive.

WarlordG26 08-26-2014 11:39 AM

I have to say the above scenario isn't that far fetched, TIA. People are hungry and they getting hungrier. The illegal aliens pouring in over the border puts a huge strain on SA. The economy isn't doing good and we are slowly moving in the direction Argentine in 2001.

xizero 08-27-2014 03:15 AM

Lyrics ---

We must call upon our bright darkness,
Beliefs, they're the bullets of the wicked,
One was written on the sword,
For you must enter a room to destroy it,
International security,
Call of the righteous man,
Needs a reason to kill man,
History teaches us so,
The reason he must attain,
Must be approved by his God,
His child, partisan brother of war,

xizero 08-27-2014 03:20 AM

i tend to agree with you on the scenario .. but the key here is what will galvanize the masses to face us?
Malema?
Will they never kill the goose that lays the golden egg?
we are taxed so strongly we may as well be slaves, do you really think killing the slaves would make sense? i doubt it,
there is no religion that bind the masses, no common goal to slay the white slaves, so long as the whites pay 80 % of the taxes we will be protected.
the ANC fat cats are VERY awaire of this,

300 Boere 08-27-2014 04:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xizero (Post 6850503)
i tend to agree with you on the scenario .. but the key here is what will galvanize the masses to face us?
Malema?
Will they never kill the goose that lays the golden egg?
we are taxed so strongly we may as well be slaves, do you really think killing the slaves would make sense? i doubt it,
there is no religion that bind the masses, no common goal to slay the white slaves, so long as the whites pay 80 % of the taxes we will be protected.
the ANC fat cats are VERY awaire of this,

I agree 100%, they are not trying to kill the goose, not at all. They need us and they know it full well ... but through their laws and their incompetence they are unwittingly poisoning the goose which will die at some point.
Once the goose is on its deathbed the black masses will rise against the government. White people won’t be the catalyst, nor the main focal point of the conflict, not initially.

Where the danger lies for us is when they start seizing white land to appease the masses. The ANC will start punting it as a race war. Only after all this has happened it would become a semi race war... then white people would have to fight to survive.

Later, once we have consolidated our position I think there is a very strong possibility that the white group would gain black allies.

xizero 08-27-2014 04:38 AM

i very seriously doubt it would go that far - land seizure is not in their interests no matter what, thats why it hasn't happened, the guerrilla war that the farmers are having waged against them with the violence and murders that happen, is enough, the governement cant let it happen too quickly or the masses will starve, rather doing what they are actually is much more effective.

the bottom line is a conventional conflict is going to be very unlikely, why wage war openly, that inspires resistance, rather boil the frog slowly.

the end game will be the same, those who can leave will, and those who cannot will work themselves to death or be victims of crime.

300 Boere 08-27-2014 06:17 AM

Remember that the ANC is not desperate at the moment so you simply cannot judge what they are willing and capable of doing in the future. After industry has declined enough to place enough pressure on the masses they will confront their government. By this time the coffers would be running dry and the ANC would have less and less options, But they have a huge trump card to appease the masses with, Land. Short term survival trumps long term considerations.

“Hey you starving people here are some Farms, have it, ANC”

Viva! ANC Viva!

The masses who hear the ANC is giving out farms would try getting one themselves, so they give some more. People would flood areas where there is even a whisper of free land. Eventually it will be a free for all. If I was black I would want one, I don’t even have to be starving.

It will only be a civil war if there is strong black opposition and to a lesser extent white opposition. No/little opposition would run the Zim course.

Emjay 08-27-2014 06:23 AM

Everyone has their scenarios playing in their heads, they are all possible in South Africa.
According to our experience and situation, we judge what may or may not be the most realistic scenario.
We are all here due to a desire to plan ahead, and ultimately stay safe.
WhiteZulu, I too am a PMB farm boy, probably with more in common than any other on this forum, and I agree with you on a lot of what you hypothesize.
Where I differ, is in the unity of the whites in SA. We are too busy with out everyday [email protected]$% to look up and see the storm. We know that there is darkness ahead of us, but I have the fear that we are too caught up in the latest cell phone, a better car etc. to actually pull together to face any onslaught.
I hope I am wrong?
Communities don't pull together any more. We barely know our neighbours.
The only people who I have seen work toward a common goal are farmers, as they have the most to lose.
As we are on Survivalist Boards- survival being the operative word, to have an escape, and then come back to fight would be defeating the point. I find that silly.
If you had no choice and had nowhere to run, then fighting would be your only choice, accepted.
There will be many in that boat, and the big trick will be getting them to pull together, South Africa's big Achilles heel.

xizero 08-27-2014 06:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhiteZulu (Post 6850623)
Remember that the ANC is not desperate at the moment so you simply cannot judge what they are willing and capable of doing in the future. After industry has declined enough to place enough pressure on the masses they will confront their government. By this time the coffers would be running dry and the ANC would have less and less options, But they have a huge trump card to appease the masses with, Land. Short term survival trumps long term considerations.

ďHey you starving people here are some Farms, have it, ANCĒ

Viva! ANC Viva!

The masses who hear the ANC is giving out farms would try getting one themselves, so they give some more. People would flood areas where there is even a whisper of free land. Eventually it will be a free for all. If I was black I would want one, I donít even have to be starving.

It will only be a civil war if there is strong black opposition and to a lesser extent white opposition. No/little opposition would run the Zim course.

the problem i have with the scenario is you assume they are stupid enough to do that .. trust me they are not .. think back to the mine strikes and how the police "allegedly " shot the mine workers, they could have stood by and let the strikers do as they please, but instead they protected the "white" capital, cause you cant steel money from non-profitable mines.

IF it ever got to the point you describe "here is some land" the nation would have to already be starving, which add's many other factors, not included here,

also what do you think would make the ANC desperate? the coffers are not anywhere near running dry -- remember that most of the capital that they steal stays in the country, and gets spent locally ... it just goes around again .... and again... government making 14 % of every transaction...

xizero 08-27-2014 07:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhiteZulu (Post 6850623)
European opposition
United 300 000 guerrilla fighters, small arms acquiring conventional arms. Cavalry 20 000. Experienced SADF commanders and soldiers.

where do you think all these Experienced SADF commanders and soldiers are ?
last time i checked most were over 45 years old and VERY unfit for any form of combat other then the odd argument over the braai tongs ... and who was going to win the rugby ... ; P

xizero 08-27-2014 07:07 AM

Then again i read this the other day ;)


http://usmilitary.about.com/od/milit.../a/oldguys.htm

I'm over 50 now (well over) and the Armed Forces say I'm too old to track down terrorists. You can't be older than 35 to join the military.
They've got the whole thing backwards. Instead of sending 18-year-olds off to fight, they ought to take us old guys. You shouldn't be able to join until you're at least 35.

For starters:

Researchers say 18-year- olds think about sex every 10 seconds. Old guys only think about sex a couple of times a day, leaving us more than 28,000 additional seconds per day to concentrate on the enemy.

Young guys haven't lived long enough to be cranky, and a cranky soldier is a dangerous soldier. If we can't kill the enemy we'll complain them into submission.

"My back hurts!" "I'm hungry!"
"Where's the remote control?"

An 18-year-old hasn't had a legal beer yet and you shouldn't go to war until you're at least old enough to legally drink. An average old guy, on the other hand, has consumed 126,000 gallons of beer by the time he's 35 and a jaunt through the desert heat with a backpack and M-60 would do wonders for the old beer belly. An 18-year-old doesn't like to get up before 10 a.m.. Old guys get up early every morning to pee.

If old guys are captured we couldn't spill the beans because we'd probably forget where we put them. In fact, name, rank, and serial number would be a real brainteaser.

Boot camp would actually be easier for old guys. We're used to getting screamed and yelled at and we actually like soft food. We've also developed a deep appreciation for guns and rifles. We like them almost better than naps.

They could lighten up on the obstacle course however.. I've been in combat and I didn't see a single 20-foot wall with rope hanging over the side, nor did I ever do any pushups after completing basic training. I can hear the Drill Sergeant now, "Get down and give me...er...one."

And the running part is kind of a waste of energy. I've never seen anyone outrun a bullet.

An 18-year-old has the whole world ahead of him. He's still learning to shave, to actually carry on a conversation, and to wear pants without the top of his butt crack showing and his boxer shorts sticking out. He's still hasn't figured out that a pierced tongue catches food particles, and that a 400-watt speaker in the back seat of a Honda Accord can rupture an eardrum. All great reasons to keep our sons at home to learn a little more about life before sending them off to possible death..

Let us old guys track down those dirty rotten cowards who attacked our hearts on September 11. The last thing the enemy would want to see right now is a couple of million old goats with attitudes.

300 Boere 08-27-2014 07:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Emjay (Post 6850632)
WhiteZulu, I too am a PMB farm boy, probably with more in common than any other on this forum

Hibo! mvethu

You know Emjay, from reading your posts you sound like a really good guy. We seem to have a first-class group of Saffers on here. I am glad I joined. I hope I don’t kick up too much dust and I apologise should I come off as too extremist or my predictions too dark. I know it is unsettling.

I appreciate the irony of saying I will fight on a forum which is about survival.

I agree that right now we are divided and self absorbed. I believe this would change only if actual civil war starts and not before... History shows us many peoples who only united once under severe threat.

Perhaps I am an idealist. I don’t have a death wish or lust for war and I want my family safe, but in a civil war I will rather return and die fighting than grow old in paradise having abandoned my people in their greatest hour of need (Afrikaans and English). I could not live with myself knowing I once had a change to do something, but now I am just an old fool reading about nations who have come and gone... where all chances at valour and redemption have passed me by... No... my constitution will not allow this.


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