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-   -   2019 Midwestern crop yield may be very bad (https://www.survivalistboards.com/showthread.php?t=918200)

I.smell.bs 05-18-2019 10:12 PM

2019 Midwestern crop yield may be very bad
 
As another big storm rolls thru my upper Midwest I wondered how the Spring planting is going.
This article suggests things are very bad this year and we can expect a skyrocketing food prices if weather trends continue.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4264532-total-catastrophe-u-s-corn-production-30-percent-u-s-corn-fields-planted-5-year-average-66

RedTail 05-18-2019 10:55 PM

Round here the late cold has screwed things up. Talking about more snow this weekend. Price of hay is the only thing I see heavily impacted in years when the weather is off. Most of the corn is feed corn and I reckon that might be effected too. Never noticed a difference in grocery store produce prices. Quality varies based on a lot of things.

Nomad, 2nd 05-19-2019 01:12 AM

Middleman is the huge % of the cost of food.

Think I read that the farmer gets $0.05-$0.10 out of every box of cereal

Might impact meat prices as noted... But my freezer and canning jar shelves are full.

Kansas Terri 05-19-2019 03:04 AM

It's not over until the fat lady sings. Yes the farmers are having trouble getting their tractors into the field, but if it just stops raining for a bit they will take care of that ASAP

More rain this week, though

Velvet Elvis 05-19-2019 06:40 AM

Add in the tariff / trade war with China.. could get ugly this year

Good beer 05-19-2019 08:41 AM

Looks like plenty more rain is on the way this week. The garden area is really spongy as it is. I'm supposed to be harvesting asparagus right now and only a spear and a half is up.

barnetmill 05-19-2019 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Velvet Elvis (Post 19532746)
Add in the tariff / trade war with China.. could get ugly this year

Trade war with china might mean less corn sold overseas leading to lower food prices here. Of course some farmers might go out of business. Successful farming has always been a gamble since it started during neolithic.
Quote:

The Neolithic (/ˌniːəˈlɪθɪk/ ( listen), also known as the "New Stone Age"), the final division of the Stone Age, began about 12,000 years ago when the first development of farming appeared in the Epipalaeolithic Near East, and later in other parts of the world.
I am not eating too much corn or corn products these days anyway.
These days I am eating a lot of herring cooked in water and no meat other than a fast hamburger now and then; never any fries or soft drink. I drastically cut down on my wine drinking. BP last timed it was checked was 105/52 and the doctor keep wanting to see my ankles to make sure they were not swelling up.

Sky1950 05-19-2019 10:06 AM

My son, who is very knowledgeable on this Climate Change stuff, says significant crop yield reductions throughout the northern hemisphere will occur for at least the next 30 years. Solar positioning and all. It's far too complicated for me, but he's a smart cookie and usually right when he makes statements. and none of it is man made!

Good beer 05-19-2019 10:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sky1950 (Post 19533000)
My son, who is very knowledgeable on this Climate Change stuff, says significant crop yield reductions throughout the northern hemisphere will occur for at least the next 30 years. Solar positioning and all. It's far too complicated for me, but he's a smart cookie and usually right when he makes statements. and none of it is man made!

It's snowing right now.

Jack Swilling 05-19-2019 10:36 AM

I expect the harvest will be fine
May no be great or set records, but there will be no shortage
Farmers are good at dealing with weather
The only grain I eat right now is organic corn meal ond steel cut oats

wilderness bushman 05-19-2019 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Good beer (Post 19533040)
It's snowing right now.

that's almost funny ,,,I am within 20 miles of Canadian border and was planting potatoes this morning in northern Minnesota,,, things are behind here as well but at least it dried out the last little bit ,,,enough I could work the ground and get started planting

powderandprimers 05-20-2019 06:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Good beer (Post 19532882)
Looks like plenty more rain is on the way this week. The garden area is really spongy as it is. I'm supposed to be harvesting asparagus right now and only a spear and a half is up.

Interesting, I'm experiencing the same thing with my asparagus this year too. I almost think much of mine may have died. The spears that are coming up are very light in color I'm noticing too.

Velvet Elvis 05-20-2019 07:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wilderness bushman (Post 19533456)
that's almost funny ,,,I am within 20 miles of Canadian border and was planting potatoes this morning in northern Minnesota,,, things are behind here as well but at least it dried out the last little bit ,,,enough I could work the ground and get started planting

Duluth area had some snow I think I heard.

ksmedman 05-20-2019 08:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Velvet Elvis (Post 19532746)
Add in the tariff / trade war with China.. could get ugly this year

Or it could balance things out.
If no exports, a lag in production (supply) could even out the lack of demand.
We'll have to see.

Velvet Elvis 05-20-2019 10:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barnetmill (Post 19532990)
Trade war with china might mean less corn sold overseas leading to lower food prices here. Of course some farmers might go out of business. Successful farming has always been a gamble since it started during neolithic.

I am not eating too much corn or corn products these days anyway.
These days I am eating a lot of herring cooked in water and no meat other than a fast hamburger now and then; never any fries or soft drink. I drastically cut down on my wine drinking. BP last timed it was checked was 105/52 and the doctor keep wanting to see my ankles to make sure they were not swelling up.

It's not just the corn prices and the farmers. It's likely to raise prices significantly on lots of commercial goods. So, struggling farmers, rising prices from the trade war, potential scarcity of domestic produce and rising prices due to this late, cold, wet spring in most parts.... might be drawing down some of the mylar food surplus in a few months.

STEEPOE 05-21-2019 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Good beer (Post 19533040)
It's snowing right now.

My brother lives in NW Wisconsin and he sent me a video of the snow as he was turkey hunting.

Creek Walker 05-21-2019 02:14 PM

There's going to be a lot more soybeans planted this year in lieu of corn acreage.

I think May 26th is the cutoff date for crop insurance for corn so that will be a factor in total corn acreage planted.

I'm sure that a year like this makes some farmers wish they'd planted winter wheat as a cover crop and just maybe we'll see the practice return.

Major Mjolnir 05-21-2019 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sky1950 (Post 19533000)
My son, who is very knowledgeable on this Climate Change stuff, says significant crop yield reductions throughout the northern hemisphere will occur for at least the next 30 years. Solar positioning and all. It's far too complicated for me, but he's a smart cookie and usually right when he makes statements. and none of it is man made!

It's entirely possible of course that your son is correct but, so far, there is no sign of such a trend. For now the trend in production has been steadily increasing and shows no signs of slowing down. I track the top 7 or 8 foodstuffs grown in the USA as well as temps and CO2 levels here:
https://www.survivalistboards.com/sh...4#post19347714

https://www.survivalistboards.com/at...2&d=1550183563

barnetmill 05-21-2019 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Major Mjolnir (Post 19537046)
It's entirely possible of course that your son is correct but, so far, there is no sign of such a trend. For now the trend in production has been steadily increasing and shows no signs of slowing down. I track the top 7 or 8 foodstuffs grown in the USA as well as temps and CO2 levels here:
https://www.survivalistboards.com/sh...4#post19347714

https://www.survivalistboards.com/at...2&d=1550183563

Does not CO2 usually stimulate plant growth?

Major Mjolnir 05-22-2019 06:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by barnetmill (Post 19537374)
Does not CO2 usually stimulate plant growth?

Sure. Greenhouses many times run CO2 levels at 800 - 1,000 ppm or higher.


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