Answer to the question "what is going on over there"
That's nearly impossible to answer. The truth as I see it from my limited perspective is almost two wars. The north and west, the Afghans are fighting the Taliban(plus other groups). The south and east, the Taliban are fighting the US.
In the north, the Afghan army and police are everywhere and taking over responsibility for security, with some infighting. ISAF forces are rarely targeted directly up here. The fighting and targeted IED placement is usually against rival factions within the Afghan forces. Sometimes it almost seems like a mob war or a trucking war.
In the south, the fighting seems to be targeted against the US forces even as we prepare to exfil either through the north or through Pakistan.
We often joke that we should blow the Salang Pass as we leave so that the Taliban in the south will have a harder time invading the north (as they did after the Soviet pull out)
Again, mine is a very limited view albeit one derived from daily missions outside the wire.