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Topic Review (Newest First)
04-20-2020 11:25 AM
Gordon Randal One feature of virus is quick and easy mutation. The mutation may be more virulent or not but it is different so can move back through the population causing more problems.
04-20-2020 08:34 AM
Gulcher
Quote:
Originally Posted by film495 View Post
15 years ago I worked at a bio research facility, and for whatever reason they handed us all pandemic preparedness booklets. One particularly interesting piece of information was repeated several times, was that the initial wave of a pandemic is not the most dangerous. They said that it is when all seems well and everyone thinks it is over, and then you hear about a second or third wave, that strain of whatever it is, flu, corona, is likely to be more dangerous and deadly. So, in theory anyways, and I'm not a pandemic expert, it is quite possible Corona could come back much harder after the initial wave we're seeing now is over. I don't know why this happens, but I've read the same basic thing in other sources since then. The news isn't talking about anything like this because they don't want anyone to freak out, as it is difficult enough already. Hopefully, it just peters out, but since it is new - what this virus does is anyone's guess.
I agree. But the problem is, this is not a natural virus. I think we will continue having waves of this virus. I think it will keep killing people until herd immunity is achieved how many waves that will take is anybodies guess. They don't know. If they do it is a well kept secret. We have been zombified.
04-20-2020 01:04 AM
film495 15 years ago I worked at a bio research facility, and for whatever reason they handed us all pandemic preparedness booklets. One particularly interesting piece of information was repeated several times, was that the initial wave of a pandemic is not the most dangerous. They said that it is when all seems well and everyone thinks it is over, and then you hear about a second or third wave, that strain of whatever it is, flu, corona, is likely to be more dangerous and deadly. So, in theory anyways, and I'm not a pandemic expert, it is quite possible Corona could come back much harder after the initial wave we're seeing now is over. I don't know why this happens, but I've read the same basic thing in other sources since then. The news isn't talking about anything like this because they don't want anyone to freak out, as it is difficult enough already. Hopefully, it just peters out, but since it is new - what this virus does is anyone's guess.
04-19-2020 11:54 PM
Colt
Quote:
Originally Posted by Colt View Post
I think the bigger question with these is just at what point do you give up your job and your interaction with the outside world and its resources to isolate yourself, and how long do you wait for it to burn out? Isolate yourself for a year and it may pick back up and make another pass through the population. Or maybe not.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aerindel View Post
Yes...this is THE question for many scenarios, and particularly this one, and its not an easy one to answer. You can't burn your bridges every time there is a disease scare...but how bad does it get before you decide to? The flu kills tens of thousands every year but most people keep going to work....does it take 100k before you hole up? A million? I really don't know. I hope I can go by instinct when the time comes....try and get a feel of how bad its is before its too late.

How long is easier....as long as you can...as long as you need to based on comms reports.


I hate myself sometimes.
04-19-2020 12:02 PM
Gulcher Very low number of tests for Chinese Virus in US. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...il/2906983001/
04-19-2020 11:43 AM
Gulcher
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimdc View Post
my county has had 36 cases as of friday. 31 have recovered so far with 0 deaths. local hospital has had 0 patients with virus. i went out the other day to pick up some seeds i ordered and everything looked normal. a few masks and social distancing going on but people are out and about up here.
With out revealing too much where are you. If you look at high density areas around the US you see it right away, areas with high density more cases. Deep South a lot of cases. Makes you wonder if mosquito's will be able to spread this, especially blood sucking ones. If you can be contaminated by other body fluids I imagine blood would also spread the virus. NY State high virus count, Florida high virus count, Texas quite a few cases, Montana only 400 so far less people, Alaska 300 etc. Point Roberts 0 cases very isolated. I sure hope this can't be spread by mosquito's as the south will get wiped, they have so many blood sucking insects. My area is 3 people per sq. mile density also 0 cases as far as I know. Big problem I see for USA is so few tests done. So US numbers are probably low by at least 10x or more.
04-19-2020 11:08 AM
jimdc my county has had 36 cases as of friday. 31 have recovered so far with 0 deaths. local hospital has had 0 patients with virus. i went out the other day to pick up some seeds i ordered and everything looked normal. a few masks and social distancing going on but people are out and about up here.
04-19-2020 08:41 AM
Gulcher
Quote:
Originally Posted by down under View Post
Great thread, Gulcher. But how did you know?

I don't know much about the Spanish flu but will offer some general info.

One of the key factors in a pandemic is the method of transmission. Airborne transmission means the disease floats around in the air. So anyone in the same room (or bus or plane) can be exposed to the disease.
The current virus is spread by droplet transmission. This disease doesn't float around in the air but is does persist for a while outside of the body. So if you get coughed on or touch something that has been coughed on you can be exposed to the disease.

So for an airborne disease one sick person can infect the 200 other people in a plane on one trip. These 200 people can then go and infect more rooms or planes or buses full of people. This can result in millions being infected in a very short time.
The current virus can also spread rapidly but not as rapidly as an airborne disease. One person can cough and spread the virus all around a room. Everyone who touches something in this room that has been coughed on can then get sick and go and spread the disease by coughing on things. Also the room is still contaminated after the first sick person leaves so more people can become sick over a period of time from the same person.

Another key point is the time between a sick person being able to spread the disease and when they show symptoms.
Generally if someone gets sick (shows symptoms) they stay home and go to bed. So even though they can spread the disease it doesn't spread much because they are at home not going near anyone else.
But if they are producing virus and don't feel sick then they will continue to go shopping, go to work, etc. So the disease continues to spread until they get sick enough to stay home.

Also diseases that kill quickly limit the spread. If a disease is fatal in three days then there is only a short time for the sick person to spread the disease.

The current coronavirus is what is called 'novel'. It is new. No-one has ever caught this virus before. So no-one has any pre-existing immunity to it.
Diseases like Spanish flu aren't as big a problem because people have been exposed before and survived. People who were very susceptible have already died. Everyone who survived had some sort of resistance to it. So if it ever blows up again there is an amount of resistance against it already in the population. This can help to slow spread.

So the worst case disease has high mortality, spreads rapidly, persists outside the body, takes a while before people die, lets people spread the disease before they get really sick and is new.


A bit more info for the member who asked about catching diseases through the eyes.
Viruses are very specific. The current virus will bond with human cells which have a suitable bonding site. Cells with this bonding site also occur in dogs which is why you will see reports of dogs testing positive for this virus.
Generally these cells are found in a person's nose and throat. This is why touching your face is a bad idea. If your hands have touched something contaminated by the virus, touching your mouth or nose puts the virus near your nose and throat. Just having the virus on your hands doesn't mean you will catch the disease. The virus can't bond with your skin.

So if a virus can bond with cells in the eyes or travel in the body to cells with a suitable bonding site then; yes, you can catch diseases through the eyes. Generally you will most likely catch them through the mouth or nose because this is a great way for diseases to get inside of you. They have a whole bunch of different cells available to bond with; mouth, nose, throat, lung, intestine, etc.
Well thanks DU but being as it is a manmade virus, I really don't think the experts have a handle on this, about 2% accuracy rate probably for the experts. They all keep contradicting themselves. I have read that the virus is alive for up to 3hrs in the air, and the cdc says they found viable virus 17 days after the cruise ship docked in LA still alive in the cabins. This is not a flu.
Now when I started this thread last year it was to learn about how pandemic's spread and how quickly they could spread. I think we found this out in spades.
I still think that being someplace with low population density is your best bet in a pandemic. I think they had it right in medieval times with how they dealt with plague ships. They did not allow them into port to infect anyone.
I think maybe our world has shifted. Many things are going to change. On top of the virus I think we will see the fall of nations and empires here.
Nothing is ever going back to what some folks would call normal.
You can not shut down the 3 largest economies globally and not expect a financial collapse.
We have not solved the virus, and now we are entering a global depression. Supply chains have broken down we are going to have very bad inflation especially in food and food shortages worse than we have seen so far. And I think the end game will be war.
China has 1.4B mouths to feed and only 6% of the potable water and about 7% of the arable land. If the CCP can not grow enough food, and can not buy enough food, they will have to go and take food.
This whole thing has gotten out of hand and will end in resource wars.
04-19-2020 07:21 AM
down under Great thread, Gulcher. But how did you know?

I don't know much about the Spanish flu but will offer some general info.

One of the key factors in a pandemic is the method of transmission. Airborne transmission means the disease floats around in the air. So anyone in the same room (or bus or plane) can be exposed to the disease.
The current virus is spread by droplet transmission. This disease doesn't float around in the air but is does persist for a while outside of the body. So if you get coughed on or touch something that has been coughed on you can be exposed to the disease.

So for an airborne disease one sick person can infect the 200 other people in a plane on one trip. These 200 people can then go and infect more rooms or planes or buses full of people. This can result in millions being infected in a very short time.
The current virus can also spread rapidly but not as rapidly as an airborne disease. One person can cough and spread the virus all around a room. Everyone who touches something in this room that has been coughed on can then get sick and go and spread the disease by coughing on things. Also the room is still contaminated after the first sick person leaves so more people can become sick over a period of time from the same person.

Another key point is the time between a sick person being able to spread the disease and when they show symptoms.
Generally if someone gets sick (shows symptoms) they stay home and go to bed. So even though they can spread the disease it doesn't spread much because they are at home not going near anyone else.
But if they are producing virus and don't feel sick then they will continue to go shopping, go to work, etc. So the disease continues to spread until they get sick enough to stay home.

Also diseases that kill quickly limit the spread. If a disease is fatal in three days then there is only a short time for the sick person to spread the disease.

The current coronavirus is what is called 'novel'. It is new. No-one has ever caught this virus before. So no-one has any pre-existing immunity to it.
Diseases like Spanish flu aren't as big a problem because people have been exposed before and survived. People who were very susceptible have already died. Everyone who survived had some sort of resistance to it. So if it ever blows up again there is an amount of resistance against it already in the population. This can help to slow spread.

So the worst case disease has high mortality, spreads rapidly, persists outside the body, takes a while before people die, lets people spread the disease before they get really sick and is new.


A bit more info for the member who asked about catching diseases through the eyes.
Viruses are very specific. The current virus will bond with human cells which have a suitable bonding site. Cells with this bonding site also occur in dogs which is why you will see reports of dogs testing positive for this virus.
Generally these cells are found in a person's nose and throat. This is why touching your face is a bad idea. If your hands have touched something contaminated by the virus, touching your mouth or nose puts the virus near your nose and throat. Just having the virus on your hands doesn't mean you will catch the disease. The virus can't bond with your skin.

So if a virus can bond with cells in the eyes or travel in the body to cells with a suitable bonding site then; yes, you can catch diseases through the eyes. Generally you will most likely catch them through the mouth or nose because this is a great way for diseases to get inside of you. They have a whole bunch of different cells available to bond with; mouth, nose, throat, lung, intestine, etc.
04-18-2020 10:15 AM
Gulcher Some of us that commented on this thread did pretty good on knowledge me so, so. I was way off on some of my ideas. But I learned quite a bit. I think that the middle age concept of not letting the plague ships into port worked. Brutal but worked. Then the next big lesson. Population Density. To self isolate you have to have distance as far as possible. That means low population density. Compare say Alaska stats or Montana stats to NY State stats. Etc.
04-17-2020 11:08 PM
SoJ_51 ..Well, Sir, you certainly Win the 'Most Prescient Thread of 2019' Award, at least..

..and 'Lava' takes it for 2020 (thus-far..) for having started the 'Big Thread' / ringing the bell, earliest (?) on it all.. And Lol on the 'irony of his screen-name' considering the thread is edging up on 18k posts and well-over 400 pages..

Posting to track..
jd
04-17-2020 07:25 PM
Gulcher I started this in Aug 2019 so how did all our various scenarios score against the real Pandemic of Chinese Virus
11-03-2019 06:42 PM
Florida Jean
Quote:
Originally Posted by ncbill View Post
Yep, pre-vaccine polio outbreaks routinely shut down public gatherings.

Now imagine something as communicable as smallpox...spread via human-to-human contact.

You'd want to avoid interacting with anyone outside those in your immediate social circle at any cost.

Can't imagine that would be good for the economy...

Another reason to also be financially prepped.

Yes, anyone could see how workers wouldn't go to work at groceries much less have any patronage, food truck deliveries, etc. True they have been developing 'food pick-up' or 'delivery' which provides some protection for gorcery workers; not so much for those getting the supplies [unless nothing is perishable and buyers let it sit on the front porch or in the car trunk for a few days.

Schools close; those workers stay home. Parents of children out of school stay home because the daycares are closed; or their job shuts down for the 'duration'. No pay checks. Banks might stay open some -- drive through only, and ATM's until folks become afraid of infected money. No garbage pick up.

Ah, but electric bills [assuming the power keeps going] and water bills, and cable bills, and rent, and mortgage, car payments, credit card payments....
There cards electronic payment systems, but a lot of people still use cash/checks.

Toss in some normal 'disasters' blizzards [no road clearing?], downed power lines, wild fires, normal house fires, tornadoes, floods, hurricanes, and more normal 'needs' car accidents, heart attacks, lost children, crime, run over fire hydrants.

The medical system, of course will be over loaded. no paramedics. Power linemen would probably still work since it is outside work with no people contact. Firemen -- how useful if half are sick or taking care of incapatitated family members. And, during the 1918 Flu the mortuaries were over whelmed.

So, anyway, it would pay a person to have 1] a decent amount of savings for online transactions, bill paying, etc. and 2] have cash at home to deal with stuff with possible cash needs.
10-30-2019 12:57 PM
ncbill
Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterWiggin View Post
I think the bigger issue than the illness of a pandemic is societies response.

SARS almost collapsed Toronto and there were "only" 44 deaths.

Be prepared for illness, but also prepared for your neighbor's response.
Yep, pre-vaccine polio outbreaks routinely shut down public gatherings.

Now imagine something as communicable as smallpox...spread via human-to-human contact.

You'd want to avoid interacting with anyone outside those in your immediate social circle at any cost.

Can't imagine that would be good for the economy...
10-29-2019 06:45 PM
PeterWiggin I think the bigger issue than the illness of a pandemic is societies response.

SARS almost collapsed Toronto and there were "only" 44 deaths.

Be prepared for illness, but also prepared for your neighbor's response.
10-29-2019 11:20 AM
oneeyeross GG= gamma globulin. Mostly used to prevent Hepatitis in the old days....
10-28-2019 03:26 PM
puttster We got a couple of special shots leaving for VN, I remember the Plague and another giant one called GG. We were supposed to go in for more after a few months. Haha- NOT.
10-28-2019 10:33 AM
oneeyeross
Quote:
Originally Posted by puttster View Post
Used to be, in the service you'd get a shot for Plague. What was that, I wonder? Can you be immunized for bacteria?
Yes, you can be immunized for bacteria. Perussis (whooping cough), Tetanus, Cholera, Typhus, the Plague (Yersenia pestis)....there are a goodly number of bacteria we get routinely immunized against.

And yes, some of us did get vaccinated for the plague while wearing the pickle suit. It wasn't a routine vaccine - I got it when I was alerted to go to Africa for an earthquake support mission. Didn't wind up going, but got the vaccines "just in case."

There are a lot we can't be immunized against, because they have a whole bunch of bacteria in their family (E. coli is one example. There are over 300 different serotypes of E. coli - only one causes real problems. The rest are beneficial, and necessary to have in your bowels.)
10-28-2019 09:26 AM
Florida Jean We still have the plague in this country. It general kills some folks every year. Generally not the pneumonic version -- but that one pops up occassionally too.

General calculated death rate from the plague in Europe [calculated over 100 to 200 years was 30% to 40%]. For modern folks who get to modern medicine it is less; but plague still pops up worldwise [a few cases near/in the Ebola hit region last month]. Still runs around +30% death rate if you don't get good, fast care.

Fortunately, except for the pneuomic plague, you just have to be on the watch fleas [and dead rats/mice lying around].


***********
Quote:
JLeeS1983I remember seeing something about researchers studying groups of people that survived the plague unharmed and they all had certain DNA markers in common that others didn't have. The were thinking they were highly resistant to it. They also found that their descendants had a generic mutation afterwards that they think made them immune. They were planning on trying to test that theory, but i don't know how far that got.
It wasn't 'all' it was that some DNA genes had a higher appearance ratio. There is some still general mutterances about that and the pestis involvement.

This genetic theory developed when some medical folks noticed that a few people, despite exposure, did not seem to catch HIV. And if they caught it, had such low levels of the HIV virus they didn't get sick; or got sick then better [with or without the anti HIV drugs] as opposed to dying from AIDS.

After case numbers like that grew, they noticed they were white men from northern Europe. Someone tossed in the idea that perhaps there had been some positive genetic selection in regards to the plague pestis way back when. I.e. some relative who had that gene and was exposed to/got the plague either didn't get it or survived because of some positive aspect of that gene. Thus the gene was selected for [and it is NOT that common among northern Europeans, just higher than other population groups].

Believe they have figured out the actual gene [if I am getting any of this wrong, someone more up on the data, please correct me]. So you could get tested for it, if you wanted.

Now, the plague has been pretty much EVERYWHERE in the Old World [developed on the steppes plains or there about -- think Huns and Mongol hoards] and had multiple waves everywhere. China, India, the Mediterrianian, etc. have probably had more exposures than northern Europeans. They may have undergone other positive gene selections that no one has figured out yet. This gene stuff is new.


****************

Quote:
puttsterUsed to be, in the service you'd get a shot for Plague. What was that, I wonder? Can you be immunized for bacteria?
I think you are thinking of Smallpox vaccination. I had it [the smallpox vaccine] as I was an Army brat going to Germany in 1958.

Still hope it is working even mildly should someone decide to unvault some of those smallpox reserves.

The 'theory' behind the gene involved with HIV [virus] and the pestis plague [bacteria] is that it amps up the persons immune system to better fight off both infections. If they have figured out the correct gene, and it does amp up the immune system, I'd suspect that carriers are also better at fighting off other diseases; perhaps down to the common cold.

**** [As a personal aside about this amping up the immune system, I also have wondered if this gene may have a part in the autoimmune illnesses that also exist.]
10-28-2019 07:23 AM
JLeeS1983
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuteandfuzzybunnies View Post
We donít know if most people who got the Black Death died. For all we know more people got it and didnít have obvious symptoms. We just donít really know for sure what it was or anything.
I remember seeing something about researchers studying groups of people that survived the plague unharmed and they all had certain DNA markers in common that others didn't have. The were thinking they were highly resistant to it. They also found that their descendants had a generic mutation afterwards that they think made them immune. They were planning on trying to test that theory, but i don't know how far that got.
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