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Thread: Gulf of Oman oil tankers attacked - Merged threads Reply to Thread
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Topic Review (Newest First)
07-13-2019 03:04 AM
Colt
Quote:
Originally Posted by WilliamAshley View Post
I'm a little confused why would you want more ships in there if any ship is a sitting duck for being sunk by Iranian missile boats and missiles?

Wouldn't it make more sense just to build an oil pipeline to the red sea/med?

With all the risk of closure of the strait, why is a pipeline not already built to a different loading point?

You want middle east peace, put it straight into Gaza, peace love and unity. Gaza would have a seaport economy. Oil would flow from the middle east to the medeteranian global peace would reign :/

You know Asia would still want to go into the gulf but no reason for Europe to do so.
The Palestinian/Israeli issue is not economic. It's territorial and religious. Make them the loading port for all the middle east's oil and they'll get rich and dump their entire wealth into raising an alliance, conquering Israel, and making Jews a slave class again (assuming they were merciful enough to not genocide them).

The pipelines exist, but they can't carry enough volume to handle all of it. They need expanded. Only something like half of the oil is going through the pipelines and half via tanker.

07-13-2019 02:51 AM
Colt
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Old Coach View Post
Bluff and bluster. If tankers don't pay the jizya, what're they gonna do? Sink 'em? That'll be an act of war that nobody except our homegrown jihadis (i.e. Democrats, but I repeat myself), will be able to ignore.
Hostile boarding the same as Britain did to Iran. Small boats and helicopters. The only ones paying or getting boarded will be the ones that wouldn't result in a war if they got boarded. The rest will be in convoys and productivity will be reduced and operating costs increased. Iran doesn't have to collect a single penny or board a single ship. All they have to do is slow it all down enough that gas prices go up and Britiain finally says 'Okay, okay. We'll let your tanker go if you're just let all the other tankers freely in and out of the Persian Gulf just like you used to.'
07-12-2019 11:02 PM
WilliamAshley
Quote:
Originally Posted by Colt View Post
What it will actually do is force convoys. If you don't participate in the convoy organization you'll have to pay Iran their toll. Question is just going to be which one costs more? Participating in the convoys, or paying Iran?
I'm a little confused why would you want more ships in there if any ship is a sitting duck for being sunk by Iranian missile boats and missiles?

Wouldn't it make more sense just to build an oil pipeline to the red sea/med?

With all the risk of closure of the strait, why is a pipeline not already built to a different loading point?

You want middle east peace, put it straight into Gaza, peace love and unity. Gaza would have a seaport economy. Oil would flow from the middle east to the medeteranian global peace would reign :/

You know Asia would still want to go into the gulf but no reason for Europe to do so.
07-12-2019 10:49 PM
The Old Coach Bluff and bluster. If tankers don't pay the jizya, what're they gonna do? Sink 'em? That'll be an act of war that nobody except our homegrown jihadis (i.e. Democrats, but I repeat myself), will be able to ignore.
07-12-2019 10:39 PM
WilliamAshley
Quote:
Originally Posted by AZ_HighCountry View Post
William Ashley will be along shortly to tell you that you are absolutely incorrect and offer as evidence a bunch of totally unrelated links hacked together in an incoherent fashion as his *proof*.
Uhm, not sure what this is about but people are investing massive into China. China is filling billions in bonds.

A major input recently on this is the inversion on bond return in the US with short term bonds leading long term. Hisorically this has indicated pending recession on a 1 to 2 year timescale.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...arter-since-14

This is backed up further by the Chinese selloff of US treasury positions and shifting into the CHiense economy that has been put under pressures. In this way the Chinese aren't reinvesting in the US and instead are stemming economic losses by not reissuing US bond holdings.

The Chinese are selling their positions to Europe.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rauleli...oes-it-matter/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...in-yield-curve

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKCN1U50X3

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trad...holdings-slide

https://theconversation.com/the-yiel...g-signs-119963


Is this what you were looking for me to say?

So yes the Chinese are using USD to buy Yuan holdings.. big time billions and Billions. And not just the Chinese but the Chinese are seeing the biggest foreign investments they have seen in years even with the auspice of trade war losses.

Chinese are big on direct market controls, so they are moving capital into China, and likewise foreign investors are moving capital into China, and they are not buying US bond issues. Part of the disstate for US bonds holdings is that long term bonds aren't yielding and are indicating the US will enter recession.



You know the 16 million people who run the world economy and their thousands of financial controllers aren't stupid and are well trained in predicting good hedges.

https://www.thestar.com/business/201...ent-ready.html


There are real doubts about the ability of the US economy to grow, while 'private' Chinese corps are offshoring to Africa at the same time the US is pulling out of African development.

China is a pretty saturated economy so is the US.. Africa however has potential for growth that China previously experienced, so China is moving Chinese business to Africa to insure continued growth. The US is attempting to reclaim a domestic economy by creating trade barriers to insure domestic growth. The scale of growth possible in the US however is limited and does have a growth scale tha can't really be outdone. There is only so much growth that is possible.

yada yada link

https://fortune.com/2019/06/04/next-...0-predictions/

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/po...red-2019-07-11

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/14/this...eld-curve.html

https://canadiandimension.com/articl...o-economic-war

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/4...amid-trade-war

https://menafn.com/1098743281/US-Rec...raders?src=Rss

Yes so definitely people are choosing to invest in China over buying US bonds. US heavily depends on people buying their currency and bonds.

The sanctions world is totally rejecting the USD and selling off US holdings. Clearly getting rid of your assets that will be seized is a safe economic strategy. Not so good for the US economy though when the US is looking for foreign investment to fuel its growth. US loss of currency control is weaking the global US economic position. Trade is being directed elsewhere. For instance China is investing into China and belt and road and ditching the US market.

https://www.investmentexecutive.com/...id-tariff-war/


OBAMA said that partnership was good, and we are seeing the effect as adversarial trade relations with China in drag on the US economy in the absence of US investment and purchasing in the US.


The feds are saying that the household consumer market is feeding the US market but household debt is high

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...kness-ubs-says


This idea that people can keep spending and spending, but being debt spending, sort of leads the idea of not a subprime crisis but a household debt crisis that ultimately the US banking system is funding.



Depending on consumer spending to float the US economy seems like burning the candle on both ends when that spending is debt spending.

I dunno a 2% growthrate matched by a 2% interest rate looks stagnant to me not vibrant.
07-12-2019 09:41 PM
Colt
Quote:
Originally Posted by AZ_HighCountry View Post
They will not pay Iran. The Brits won't eff around. Look for US aircraft to be in the vicinity more frequently.
Britain won't. But plenty of nationless corporations with 3rd world flagged ships will consider it a solid business decision to pay Iran $500,000 rather than lose a million running in additional costs waiting around to participate in convoys.
07-12-2019 09:35 PM
AZ_HighCountry They will not pay Iran. The Brits won't eff around. Look for US aircraft to be in the vicinity more frequently.
07-12-2019 09:31 PM
Colt
Quote:
Originally Posted by AZ_HighCountry View Post
Hello, mullahs? Good luck collecting.
What it will actually do is force convoys. If you don't participate in the convoy organization you'll have to pay Iran their toll. Question is just going to be which one costs more? Participating in the convoys, or paying Iran?
07-12-2019 09:24 PM
AZ_HighCountry
Quote:
Originally Posted by Colt View Post
Also read that the Iranian Parliment is currently considering a toll on all tankers traveling through the Straight of Hormuz.
Hello, mullahs? Good luck collecting.
07-12-2019 09:17 PM
Colt Just read that the British are keeping their frigate through rotation so they've now got 2 Duke class frigates at the Straight of Hormuz and 4 minesweepers.

Also read that the Iranian Parliment is currently considering a toll on all tankers traveling through the Straight of Hormuz.
07-11-2019 08:00 AM
The Old Coach
Quote:
Originally Posted by AZ_HighCountry View Post
For what? Them losing?

It is true the Germans, French, and to a small extent the Japanese have been in violation of the embargo. The French were particularly arrogant about it when they were caught.
Yup. Particularly that we gave so much support to Uncle Joe. I heard "if you hadn't joined with the Communists there would never have been this Cold War" Literally. Guy was a private pilot, and was very much incensed at how "the USAF still had complete control of German airspace". True or not, nobody at that dinner table disagreed with him.
07-11-2019 07:41 AM
AZ_HighCountry
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Old Coach View Post
A big problem we've got is that certain German and Japanese companies have no scruples about supplying Iran with key high-tech machine tools and lasers and such even though they are embargoed. Don't remember actual names anymore, but I heard via the corporate grapevine of one shipment involving my ex-employer, going back to about 2006 or 2007. I have no doubt at all that this is still going on. Some Germans still haven't forgiven the USA for WW2.
For what? Them losing?

It is true the Germans, French, and to a small extent the Japanese have been in violation of the embargo. The French were particularly arrogant about it when they were caught.
07-11-2019 05:46 AM
Sorry-no-clues
Quote:
Originally Posted by D2 View Post
lots of iran Aircraft

https://www.militaryfactory.com/airc...sp?Nation=Iran
Drones, Helicopters, jets over 100 diffrent types of combat capable including drones. And a number of Recon Type craft..
Impressive in a Way. Respectively they have 5 gen jets i didn't know they had, that have both tech and stealth
Thanks for that. I do so hope they send up the Hurricanes against us.

The list does illustrate how the drone is the poor man's air force.
07-11-2019 04:35 AM
The Old Coach
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sorry-no-clues View Post
I know one shouldn't underestimate one's enemy, but the Iranian culture has been unable to make any technical innovations for the past twenty generations. Western journalists believe Iranian propaganda because they don't believe that people tell blatant lies, unless it's a conservative Western politician talking. Anyone with more than a hint of melanin in their skin is automatically a victim therefore truthful. Their racism makes them weak and stupid.
I wouldn't discount them so easily. There are some pretty smart Persians in the world. I've had Persian refugees as engineering colleagues, and they were pretty good.

OTOH I do recall the mullahs holding a "roll-out" of their newest whoop-de-do hypersonic fighter aircraft a few years ago, and we in the West all laughed because it was obviously a plywood mockup. Nice paint job, though.

A big problem we've got is that certain German and Japanese companies have no scruples about supplying Iran with key high-tech machine tools and lasers and such even though they are embargoed. Don't remember actual names anymore, but I heard via the corporate grapevine of one shipment involving my ex-employer, going back to about 2006 or 2007. I have no doubt at all that this is still going on. Some Germans still haven't forgiven the USA for WW2.
07-11-2019 04:16 AM
The Old Coach Any country selling goods to China and taking yuan in trade is being suckered. They can't go anywhere else with their yuan to buy stuff, 'cause no-one else wants it. So they'll have to buy goods from China at inflated prices, or sell their yuan on some FX market at a deep discount. Very deep.
07-11-2019 04:13 AM
Sorry-no-clues
Quote:
Originally Posted by Colt View Post
They have a lot of prototypes that they at least claim are super awesome cool. But they're not in production and no one knows what parts of the claims are actually true or not.
I know one shouldn't underestimate one's enemy, but the Iranian culture has been unable to make any technical innovations for the past twenty generations. Western journalists believe Iranian propaganda because they don't believe that people tell blatant lies, unless it's a conservative Western politician talking. Anyone with more than a hint of melanin in their skin is automatically a victim therefore truthful. Their racism makes them weak and stupid.
07-11-2019 03:43 AM
small.business.guy.1
Quote:
Pakistan wants the yuan
As for all those numbers of Countries taking the yuan as a trading currency. Just numbers, and very misleading ones. Here's why:

One has to take into account China's account balances with each of those nations. In most cases, China is running negative account balance. That means China is buying more (or investing more into) from those nations than they are getting back.

There's only 2 ways China can keep doing this (running negative account balances):

Way 1:

Run a positive account balance with the nations which are reserve currencies. (Say, the USA.

Way 2:

Run a positive account balance with corporations and investors where more investment capital is coming into China than is being repatriated (profits returned to the investors) back to the investors.

Now, #1 is still happening (for the moment). But there's a really heavy duty debate going on over how long it's going to continue. We'll see. Remember, all the data released to the public is at least 2 months old, if not a little longer. So as of today, that's May, 2019 data. And the US tariffs are a very large part of this.

But #2 is already in a definite downtrend. And the momentum is increasing since 2018. China is not getting more foreign investment. That money is going elsewhere. And that's some serious coin. And China has to repay virtually all of that outstanding foreign investment capital in FX (Foreign eXchange) funds. And the yuan is not an option.

We don't have most of the answers yet, but the trends are becoming clearer. And those trends are not positive for China.
07-11-2019 03:13 AM
The Old Coach More detail, if you can credit Zero Hedge....

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...straits-hormuz
07-11-2019 03:12 AM
The Old Coach Not I. I haven't been rotating my farm tank like I should - it's time to burn some of it.
07-11-2019 02:50 AM
Colt So... who's stocking up on gas?
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