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Thread: Do you think a million could die in CA? Reply to Thread
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Topic Review (Newest First)
03-21-2020 01:31 PM
txprep
Quote:
Originally Posted by slackercruster View Post
Talking with a doctor in CA. He said they expect 50%+ could get the virus in CA and a million may day from it.

What do you think?

Fair estimate or overblown?
that sounds about right. Not sure at what point herd immunity starts to kick in. Also that is over the course of a year probably.

If left unchecked it doubles every 6 days. If hospitals are overwhelmed the death rate goes up, the natural death rate is probably .5%-1%
03-20-2020 06:56 PM
rriley
Quote:
Originally Posted by beaner View Post
A million dead is one sure way they will all vote democrat this fall
In Chicago the dead voted every year.
03-20-2020 06:53 PM
jetgraphics Don't forget to add in those with organ damage but survive the virus. If they can't get aid, they may die soon after.
03-20-2020 06:45 PM
Marjorie
Quote:
Originally Posted by ForumSurvivalist View Post
40,000,000 * 60% catch it * 20% die = around 500,000
Quote:
Originally Posted by USNAWSRET View Post
Seriously? You missed a zero.

Try ~5 MILLION deaths.

-jack
Probably typo and meant 2% not 20% die, which would be 500,000 (approx).

No one anywhere is predicting a 20% cfr.
03-20-2020 06:44 PM
leadcounsel California population:
40,000,000

Estimate of 40-70% infected, gives us a range of 16M to 28M.

20% of infected result in ER needs, so 3.2 to 5.6 Million needing long-term intensive care.

Reality: https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavi...241311296.html
California has a total of 78,000-90,000 total hospital beds.

Total beds available to treat people needing this highly specialized long term quarantine treatment in all of California is probably a small % of total beds. Maybe a few thousand.

It requires 2+ nurses per patient.

Right now 74% of all beds are already occupied.

Simple math says nearly every patient in urgent care is simply going to die due to lack of treatment at current rates.

And right now, in the US and in Italy the RESULTS are about 50% fatality for closed cases.

Simple math says if this runs out of control, this will kill more people than any event since the WWI era and 1918 flu...
03-20-2020 06:32 PM
AZ_HighCountry
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steverino View Post
Chine MOBILE.


That fall off the ledge is not consistent with the excuse they are using.
If accurate, that is a good find and could be significant.
03-20-2020 06:21 PM
CatBell
Quote:
Originally Posted by AZ_HighCountry View Post
There's no negotiation. Newsom already issued the EO to take them over. Unknown what the compensation will be.
Thanks for the clarification.
03-20-2020 06:19 PM
Steverino
Quote:
Originally Posted by slackercruster View Post
Wow, surprised you could find that out. China is such a secret oriented country.

What official death # did China give?

Chine MOBILE.

LINK to tweet: https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/st...25420562178050

Here's the page link: https://ezone.ulifestyle.com.hk/arti...8C%9C%E7%96%91

And the translated text:

Quote:
China's telecommunications industry has developed rapidly in recent years. Recently, China Mobile announced operating data for the past two months, and about 7.254 million users were lost from the mainland. Although the decline accounted for less than 1% of China Mobile ’s 942 million subscribers, the sharp drop in numbers is still unusual.

China Mobile Announces Operating Data, Mainland Users Lost About 7.254 Million
Cumulative net reduction of 8.116 million in two months
The reason may be related to "number porting"

[With time details] VFE / PFE / BFE masks from pharmacy Japan will arrive again! Order in 3 sections and sell for $ 160

Since 1997, China Mobile has regularly released user size related data every month. In January 2020, China Mobile had 949.415 million subscribers, a decrease of 862,000 from the previous month, and the first regression in 23 years. As of February, China Mobile had 942,161 million subscribers, a significant decrease of 7.254 million compared to January, and a cumulative net decrease of 8.116 million in two months. The user churn situation was very serious.

China Mobile Hong Kong pre-sells the latest Samsung 5G flagship phone Galaxy S20 series to usher in the birth of a new 5G generation

Looking at the past data, China Mobile's subscribers have increased most of the time. The highest record was 4.16 million in June 2018, and it has not suddenly fallen sharply until nearly two months. Although many people think of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, some analysts say that the reason is related to the "number porting network" which was implemented last year, that is, the channel can be freely changed without changing the number.





That fall off the ledge is not consistent with the excuse they are using.
03-20-2020 06:13 PM
AZ_HighCountry
Quote:
Originally Posted by slackercruster View Post
Wow, surprised you could find that out. China is such a secret oriented country.

What official death # did China give?
About 3500.
03-20-2020 06:08 PM
slackercruster
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steverino View Post
Latest figures released by China Mobile show that they have lost 8.116 million users in Jan and Feb.

8.116 million

Where are these users now? Switched to other carriers? Or, they couldn't carry their phone to the nether world?
Wow, surprised you could find that out. China is such a secret oriented country.

What official death # did China give?
03-20-2020 06:04 PM
AZ_HighCountry
Quote:
Originally Posted by CatBell View Post
The CA government is also negotiating with motels and hotels to become temporary facilities should hospitals start getting over crowded.
There's no negotiation. Newsom already issued the EO to take them over. Unknown what the compensation will be.
03-20-2020 06:03 PM
AZ_HighCountry
Quote:
Originally Posted by USNAWSRET View Post
Seriously? You missed a zero.

Try ~5 MILLION deaths.

-jack
Some people are math challenged. Even with an app.
03-20-2020 05:35 PM
CatBell The CA government is also negotiating with motels and hotels to become temporary facilities should hospitals start getting over crowded.
03-20-2020 05:33 PM
Steverino Latest figures released by China Mobile show that they have lost 8.116 million users in Jan and Feb.

8.116 million

Where are these users now? Switched to other carriers? Or, they couldn't carry their phone to the nether world?
03-20-2020 05:23 PM
RurbanGreyDude I highly doubt a million. It'll hit pockets of immunocompromised, public housing, the poor/ unprepared and homeless

The socioeconomic consequences of such though? Oh yeah, people WILL die in riots, stabbings/shootings, etc.

Until then, it's business as usual. I'm at my favorite taco truck which happens to be at the junkyard.

Still pulling parts, still ordering food.

How long this normalcy will last? I have no idea
03-20-2020 05:16 PM
Jack Swilling
Quote:
Originally Posted by Timberline View Post
THe Diamond Princess provides some usable data that bears repeating.

"As of February 20, tests of most of the 3,711 people aboard the Diamond Princess confirmed that 634, or 17 percent, had the virus; 328 of them did not have symptoms at the time of diagnosis. Of those with symptoms, the fatality ratio was 1.9 percent, Russell and colleagues calculate. Of all infected, that ratio was 0.91 percent. Those 70 and older were most vulnerable, with an overall fatality ratio of about 7.3 percent."

With a 17% infection rate on a ship where the ventilation probably spread the virus, it strains credulity for the Governor of California to predict a 56% infection rate state wide.
Completely agree
A controlled population in close quarters
With little regard for controlling the spread of the virus
In effect, a scientic study of sorts
03-20-2020 05:11 PM
Timberline THe Diamond Princess provides some usable data that bears repeating.

"As of February 20, tests of most of the 3,711 people aboard the Diamond Princess confirmed that 634, or 17 percent, had the virus; 328 of them did not have symptoms at the time of diagnosis. Of those with symptoms, the fatality ratio was 1.9 percent, Russell and colleagues calculate. Of all infected, that ratio was 0.91 percent. Those 70 and older were most vulnerable, with an overall fatality ratio of about 7.3 percent."

With a 17% infection rate on a ship where the ventilation probably spread the virus, it strains credulity for the Governor of California to predict a 56% infection rate state wide.
03-20-2020 05:09 PM
Jack Swilling Seems entirely possible
But there is a strident state-wide quarantine
That may keep it under a million
03-20-2020 05:05 PM
Lilychan The death rate could be 5%, if hospitals go over capacity. If we are successful in slowing things down and the hospitals are not overran, then I think we can expect the death rate to be a lot lower.
03-20-2020 05:03 PM
USNAWSRET Seriously? You missed a zero.

Try ~5 MILLION deaths.

-jack

Quote:
Originally Posted by ForumSurvivalist View Post
40,000,000 * 60% catch it * 20% die = around 500,000
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