Survivalist Forum - Reply to Topic
Survivalist Forum

Advertise Here

Go Back   Survivalist Forum > > > >
Articles Classifieds Donations Gallery Groups Links Store Survival Files


Notices

Advertise Here
Thread: Mortality Rate Discussions **MERGED HERE** Reply to Thread
Title:
  
Message:
Post Icons
You may choose an icon for your message from the following list:
 

Register Now

In order to be able to post messages on the Survivalist Forum forums, you must first register.
Please enter your desired user name, your email address and other required details in the form below.
User Name:
Password
Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.
Password:
Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.
Email Address:
Gender
Insurance
Please select your insurance company (Optional)

Log-in

Human Verification

In order to verify that you are a human and not a spam bot, please enter the answer into the following box below based on the instructions contained in the graphic.



Additional Options
Miscellaneous Options

Topic Review (Newest First)
05-10-2020 12:28 PM
Nomad, 2nd
Quote:
Originally Posted by arleigh View Post
People that refuse to respect social distancing, and masking and hand washing are the ones responsible for making this last longer than it should.
I had a job that every one had to wear masks and full bunny suit all day. it is the cost of doing business.
I have an extraordinary immune system but the person I take care of is not so well off.
I do not wish weaker people harm, but with proper respect for one another there is no reason we cannot go back to work.
Your more likely to convince the Irish to stop drinking....
05-10-2020 12:18 PM
arleigh People that refuse to respect social distancing, and masking and hand washing are the ones responsible for making this last longer than it should.
I had a job that every one had to wear masks and full bunny suit all day. it is the cost of doing business.
I have an extraordinary immune system but the person I take care of is not so well off.
I do not wish weaker people harm, but with proper respect for one another there is no reason we cannot go back to work.
05-10-2020 11:57 AM
KLF
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedTail View Post
It is important. While studies have been limited, they do show some level of acquired immunity. My niece is an LPN. She had the wuhan virus and is now back at work in the same environment where she caught it. 17 days and doing fine. Granted, she (my canary in a coal mine) is a sample of one which means nothing. That said, I'm more swayed by what I'm not seeing. Specifically, large numbers of confirmed reinfection. There are thousands of people like her.

It's also important to understand there's a difference between immunity, resistance, and tolerance which seems to go over people's heads no matter how often it's explained. Recovery from pathogens doesn't always translate to lifetime immunity. Taking your own example of the common cold. Some catch it annually. Doesn't kill very many. Once upon a time it too was a novel virus. Now, most people have a long history of exposure and some level of resistance or tolerance. Evolution is an arms race.
So I heard today... (I have a relative who works in local hospital). That last weekend they had received a patient, under 40, previously sick with corona virus but was cured weeks ago. Now he/she was again sick and was brought to ER but I guess the mindset was that since patiend already had corona it must be something else... and test was positive.

I don't have more details than that, and even that much is not really "public" knowledge since it could be singled out to certain person.

Anyways, that incident was the reason why personnel not in "corona duty" but doing their regular work need to wear even more protective gear now, because that day everyone from EMTs to technicians in radiology were exposed and now they are quarantined at home for couple weeks...
05-10-2020 09:31 AM
PeterEnergy “There is nothing from the CDC that I can trust,” Birx said, according to two of the people.
frustrated with the CDC’s antiquated system for tracking virus data, which they worried was inflating some statistics — such as mortality rate and case count — by as much as 25 percent,
Amazing!
05-04-2020 12:06 PM
RedTail
Quote:
Originally Posted by Basic Human Unit View Post
Probably because there isn't certainty that those antibodies makes one immune to all strains of the virus. Considering its close kinship with the common cold, that's an important detail to find out.
It is important. While studies have been limited, they do show some level of acquired immunity. My niece is an LPN. She had the wuhan virus and is now back at work in the same environment where she caught it. 17 days and doing fine. Granted, she (my canary in a coal mine) is a sample of one which means nothing. That said, I'm more swayed by what I'm not seeing. Specifically, large numbers of confirmed reinfection. There are thousands of people like her.

It's also important to understand there's a difference between immunity, resistance, and tolerance which seems to go over people's heads no matter how often it's explained. Recovery from pathogens doesn't always translate to lifetime immunity. Taking your own example of the common cold. Some catch it annually. Doesn't kill very many. Once upon a time it too was a novel virus. Now, most people have a long history of exposure and some level of resistance or tolerance. Evolution is an arms race.
05-04-2020 11:53 AM
Basic Human Unit
Quote:
Originally Posted by RedTail View Post
Appologies if already posted.

NY has added to its previous antibody testing of 3000 samples. 15,000 samples have now been evaluated. Results have remained consistent. 12.3% of sampled individuals tested positive for wuhan-19 antibodies. Either infection is far more widespread and mortality is much lower than previously thought or people are developing antibodies in response to exposure to something like antigens or virus particles lacking disease producing capacity. Either way it's good news.

Oddly (or not) it's not making a lot of headlines.

https://www.usnews.com/news/national...rus-antibodies
Probably because there isn't certainty that those antibodies makes one immune to all strains of the virus. Considering its close kinship with the common cold, that's an important detail to find out.
05-04-2020 11:01 AM
RedTail Appologies if already posted.

NY has added to its previous antibody testing of 3000 samples. 15,000 samples have now been evaluated. Results have remained consistent. 12.3% of sampled individuals tested positive for wuhan-19 antibodies. Either infection is far more widespread and mortality is much lower than previously thought or people are developing antibodies in response to exposure to something like antigens or virus particles lacking disease producing capacity. Either way it's good news.

Oddly (or not) it's not making a lot of headlines.

https://www.usnews.com/news/national...rus-antibodies
05-04-2020 10:00 AM
Jack Swilling Agree
Plus Rand Paul is a medical doctor
He has worked as an ER doctor and an eye surgeon
05-04-2020 09:09 AM
Hick Industries
Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterEnergy View Post
This speech from Rand Paul talks of numerous scientific studies indicating the antibody is in 25-50x more of the population than has been confirmed to have Cvirus. This translates into a mortality rate 0.1-0.2%.

YouTube
This is exactly the kinds of facts about the virus we needed before shutting down the economy.

I had read several of these studies, but since I am trained as an ME (mechanical engineer), not a MD, I was afraid I was missing something.

Not only is the death rate from this virus Tiny, a very large precentage of our population have already gotten it, beaten it, and now have anti bodies.
05-04-2020 08:30 AM
PeterEnergy This speech from Rand Paul talks of numerous scientific studies indicating the antibody is in 25-50x more of the population than has been confirmed to have Cvirus. This translates into a mortality rate 0.1-0.2%.

05-03-2020 12:49 PM
PeterEnergy
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sprig View Post
Your comment is useless Trolling.

"Essential Workers" is not a check box on any Death Certificate.
LOL. You mean because there is no check box on any Death Certificate there is no way human beings could ever figure out this plague is so deadly that being deemed 'an essential worker' does not stop thousands who violate social distancing rules die by the thousands. Gotcha!
05-03-2020 03:35 AM
bce1 I would have thought some pretty basic and well understood statements around the limitations of the COVID test used in NZ (and most of the world) and some basic epidemiology didn’t require references. Sorry, my mistake.
05-03-2020 01:00 AM
ForgedInTheFlame
Quote:
Originally Posted by bce1 View Post
I would side with Madoc here. By virtue of it being and anonymous Internet forum it is hard to post 'evidence' given most of the good juicey stuff has a degree of clearance attached to it. NZ has done some great things and some rubbish things and we have apparent low incidence and spread in the community which is a great thing.



The MoH and DHBs are doing a lot of back-patting and self congratulations and to be fair NZ as I say is in a pretty good situation - and you can argue over what actions it has been which has got us here overall, but our testing programme hasn't been great (as one actively involved in it). Our case definitions have been all over the place (and politically influenced), the test relies on you doing a good nasopharyngeal swab and getting plenty of snot and epithelial cells on it and I would say 1/2 of the ones I have witnessed have been rubbish. If the test is positive it is really sensitive for detecting viral RNA - so fantastic - positive test = has the disease. The problem is a negative test........ and that is NZs problem. We are making to many decisions based on the assumption that a negative test = no COVID and that isn't true. If the circumstantial evidence is high and still negative test you are a probable, but circumstantial evidence is weak, like an unexplained cough and a negative swab then you are 'not Covid'. It makes no sense and has probably missed dozens of cases. So there are reasons why our testing programme is like it is, and it is probably ok given the situation, but we shouldn't kid ourselves this is 'world class' programme.



Ultimately if the community transmission has been substantially reduced by 5 weeks at L4 then all is good. But there is risk at L3 and L2 if it hasn't. If the assumptions been made that the testing is correct then incidence will continue to fall to zero over the next 3-5 days and stay there outside returned travellers in quarantine. But if incorrect we will continue to have good days and bad days waxing and waning - 5-10 people a day and we will have a big dilemma over moving to level 2 because that will mean it is still present in the community - albeit in small numbers. Police are anxious about going back to L4 and are not sure they can maintain law and order if we head back into it.



At a health bureaucrat level a lot of self congratulatory hot air is being blown !!
Sounds like you have no evidence. As you were.

Sent from my Note 8 using Tapatalk
05-03-2020 12:28 AM
bce1
Quote:
Originally Posted by SouthernCross View Post
Do you have anything resembling a fact to back up your opinion?
I would side with Madoc here. By virtue of it being and anonymous Internet forum it is hard to post 'evidence' given most of the good juicey stuff has a degree of clearance attached to it. NZ has done some great things and some rubbish things and we have apparent low incidence and spread in the community which is a great thing.

The MoH and DHBs are doing a lot of back-patting and self congratulations and to be fair NZ as I say is in a pretty good situation - and you can argue over what actions it has been which has got us here overall, but our testing programme hasn't been great (as one actively involved in it). Our case definitions have been all over the place (and politically influenced), the test relies on you doing a good nasopharyngeal swab and getting plenty of snot and epithelial cells on it and I would say 1/2 of the ones I have witnessed have been rubbish. If the test is positive it is really sensitive for detecting viral RNA - so fantastic - positive test = has the disease. The problem is a negative test........ and that is NZs problem. We are making to many decisions based on the assumption that a negative test = no COVID and that isn't true. If the circumstantial evidence is high and still negative test you are a probable, but circumstantial evidence is weak, like an unexplained cough and a negative swab then you are 'not Covid'. It makes no sense and has probably missed dozens of cases. So there are reasons why our testing programme is like it is, and it is probably ok given the situation, but we shouldn't kid ourselves this is 'world class' programme.

Ultimately if the community transmission has been substantially reduced by 5 weeks at L4 then all is good. But there is risk at L3 and L2 if it hasn't. If the assumptions been made that the testing is correct then incidence will continue to fall to zero over the next 3-5 days and stay there outside returned travellers in quarantine. But if incorrect we will continue to have good days and bad days waxing and waning - 5-10 people a day and we will have a big dilemma over moving to level 2 because that will mean it is still present in the community - albeit in small numbers. Police are anxious about going back to L4 and are not sure they can maintain law and order if we head back into it.

At a health bureaucrat level a lot of self congratulatory hot air is being blown !!
05-02-2020 07:32 PM
Sprig
Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterEnergy View Post
...Aside from that, I saw an eye opening meme and would like your comment on it. How come 'essential workers' are not dying by the thousands?
Your comment is useless Trolling.

"Essential Workers" is not a check box on any Death Certificate.
05-02-2020 03:25 PM
txprep
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack Swilling View Post
@TheFall

Agree 100%
Great post

The number of unknown, really high number, of asyptomatic infections blows this nonsense out of the water

Stanford University just did a study and was at a very low rate, but the usual suspects got the vapors

Who am I going to believe, fake news or Stanford ?????
I am going with Stanford and all the doctors and scientists who have been saying this same thing all along

The final number will be a fraction of Team Pee Your Pants' number
the diamond princess had 44% asymptomatic. The way they test is using a PCR test looking for viral RNA. It is very sensitive. However with some diseases you can be exposed and generate antibodies, but never have any detectable viral RNA. So I would be interested to see if more people on the diamond princess were actually exposed, never tested positive for a viral infection, but now have sars-ncov-2 antibodies.

The categories are:

People that are infected, get sick with bad symptoms. They will test positive on PCR and antibody tests. They will go to the hospital and tend to get tested.

People that are infected, get mildly sick. They will test positive on PCR and antibody tests. They may not go to the hospital. A larger fraction will not get tested

People that are infected, and are asymptomatic. They will test positive on PCR and antibody tests. They will not go to a hospital and generally wont get tested.

People that are exposed, but never get "infected" and never shed virus. They will test negative on PCR test, and positive on antibody tests. They will not go to a hospital

People that are not exposed, but have had a coronavirus that can match the antibody test. They will test negative on the PCR test but will test positive on the antibody test.

There are also false negatives and false positiveson the antibody test, where the test just didnt get run right or antibodies bound to the plastic of the microtiter or whatever.

Unfortunately I think what is more likely true is that the antibody test used by stanford is picking up antibodies for other corona viruses. Antibody tests are a lot harder than PCR tests to make.

With an antibody test you bind viral proteins/RNA to microtiter plates. You then run plasma over the test. If someone has antibodies to the virus they bind to the antigen. There are a variety of protocols, but some have fluorescent molecules that bind to the base of the antibody and glow under UV light.

The trick is getting viral proteins that bind only to sars-ncov-2 antibodies and not antibodies to other corona viruses. The only way is to use controls. Even then you cant really check to make sure that the viral antigen doesnt bind to any coronavirus that ever existed.
05-02-2020 03:13 PM
txprep
Quote:
Originally Posted by hardcalibres View Post
I am not sure about this idea that there are millions of infected who had no/mild symptoms, but remain undetected.

Afterall, even nations that are doing really well on official stats (like Australia and New Zealand) have applied pretty loose lockdowns (essential people living with locked down people etc) and have now opened up testing to anyone who wants it, but are still not finding community transmission.

Surely these undetected cases lead to at least some symptomatic/severe cases that then get detected - but no significant number of such cases seem to exist.

Why?

The only answer I have is that asymptomatic spread exists but is limited......
44% of the people from the diamond princess were asymptomatic. A large portion of the people with symptoms had mild symptoms. I would be surprised if the asymptomatic number was substantially larger than 44% (e.g. 95% or whatever some people are supposedly reporting).

There is a chance that there are people that were exposed that produced antibodies that never tested positive to a PCR test.
05-02-2020 12:11 PM
Basic Human Unit
Quote:
Originally Posted by PeterEnergy View Post
In so many words, many have said it, even on SB.
Even if they did, how is it part of this conversation?
05-02-2020 12:06 PM
PeterEnergy
Quote:
Originally Posted by ForgedInTheFlame View Post
Even when PeterEnergy is partially right, he looks like a fool. Dude is a walking comedy.
No positive contribution. Just Appeal to Ad homenim.

Bottom line: Mortality rates are so low, the “cure” is not worth the destruction.
05-02-2020 12:02 PM
PeterEnergy
Quote:
Originally Posted by Basic Human Unit View Post
Nobody ever said it was.
In so many words, many have said it, even on SB.
This thread has more than 20 replies. Click here to review the whole thread.

Posting Rules
You may post new threads
You may post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:30 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Optimisation provided by DragonByte SEO (Lite) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2020 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
vBulletin Security provided by vBSecurity v2.2.2 (Pro) - vBulletin Mods & Addons Copyright © 2020 DragonByte Technologies Ltd.
Copyright © Kevin Felts 2006 - 2015,
Green theme by http://www.themesbydesign.net