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Thread: 2019 Midwestern crop yield may be very bad Reply to Thread
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Topic Review (Newest First)
09-13-2019 07:34 PM
Panchovilla Crop yields will go up and down. Plan accordingly. Yields were pretty good last year as I recall.

These tariffs came at a good time, if there is such a thing. China is already backtracking on some of their farm tariffs and we're selling what we produce.
08-25-2019 12:42 PM
Sailorsam https://www.the-review.com/news/2019...er-of-extremes

***The U.S. Department of Agriculture says the corn yield potential on the tour was estimated at 154.35 bushels per acre in Ohio — a drop from 2018′s tour estimate of 179.57 and below the three-year average of 164.38.
The next state suffering the biggest weather-related issues was South Dakota, where the corn yield potential was estimated at 154.08 bushels per acre — below 2018′s tally of 178.01.
Ohio is the nation’s eighth-largest corn-producing state and is predicted to have a yield estimated to be about 18% lower this year.
The rather grim sentiment was echoed by Cheryl Turner, a state statistician for the USDA, in her weekly report on Ohio’s corn and soybean crops.
There was some much-needed soaking rain in some areas of Ohio, but Turner noted that while some fields saw an inch or more of rain, others not far away remained high and dry.
“Crop conditions continued to deteriorate and remained in much poorer shape than 2018,” she concluded. ***

not good

however

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/12/corn...d-us-crop.html
***The U.S. corn harvest will be bigger than previously forecast, the U.S. Agriculture Department said on Monday, as the government issued a surprise boost to its yield estimate despite ongoing concerns in the country about a wet spring and dry summer limiting production.
For the 2019/20 crop year, the corn harvest will total 13.901 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 169.5 bushels per acre, the USDA predicted in its monthly supply and demand report.***

bad weather in one area, good weather elsewhere
08-24-2019 12:07 AM
Kansas Terri I would like to think that the farmers who bring off a good crop would make a good profit: however this year China has been buying from South America instead of from us. So, what happens to the price in a couple of months is anybody's guess
08-23-2019 09:17 PM
vivisky I am so sorry to hear of the decreased yields...however, smaller yields should mean higher prices (????)
And if there are some farms which have not prepped for a downturn, combined with over-dependence on equipment loans....these properties might be for sale, and a good opportunity for those who can manage them more efficiently (e.g. preppers or organic small-scale specialty farmers). No mean intentions, as I have several farmers in my family. We carry on, in any manner as we must. Some of the relative's sons (daughters) sadly have zero interest in farming.....and I do not stand to inherit, neither can I afford their $3,000 per acre asking price (for an 80 acre size tract).
The future belongs to those who have prepared, or who will trade with those who promise to keep the land in the family.
08-23-2019 09:49 AM
Major Mjolnir https://www.nass.usda.gov/Newsroom/2019/08-12-2019.php
WASHINGTON, DC August 12, 2019
USDA Forecasts U.S. Corn and Soybean Production Down from 2018

"Soybean production is down 19 percent from 2018, forecast at 3.68 billion bushels; corn growers are expected to decrease their production 4 percent from last year, forecast at 13.9 billion bushels. ...Average corn yield is forecast at 169.5 bushels per acre, down 6.9 bushels from last year."

"Wheat production is forecast at 1.98 billion bushels, up 5 percent from 2018. Growers are expected to produce 1.33 billion bushels of winter wheat this year, up 12 percent from last year. Durum wheat production is forecast at 57.3 million bushels, down 26 percent from last year. All other spring wheat production is forecast at 597 million bushels, down 4 percent from 2018. Based on August 1 conditions, the U.S. all wheat yield is forecast at 51.6 bushels per acre, up 4.0 bushels from last year."
05-22-2019 06:14 AM
Major Mjolnir
Quote:
Originally Posted by barnetmill View Post
Does not CO2 usually stimulate plant growth?
Sure. Greenhouses many times run CO2 levels at 800 - 1,000 ppm or higher.
05-21-2019 05:13 PM
barnetmill
Quote:
Originally Posted by Major Mjolnir View Post
It's entirely possible of course that your son is correct but, so far, there is no sign of such a trend. For now the trend in production has been steadily increasing and shows no signs of slowing down. I track the top 7 or 8 foodstuffs grown in the USA as well as temps and CO2 levels here:
https://www.survivalistboards.com/sh...4#post19347714

https://www.survivalistboards.com/at...2&d=1550183563
Does not CO2 usually stimulate plant growth?
05-21-2019 02:41 PM
Major Mjolnir
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sky1950 View Post
My son, who is very knowledgeable on this Climate Change stuff, says significant crop yield reductions throughout the northern hemisphere will occur for at least the next 30 years. Solar positioning and all. It's far too complicated for me, but he's a smart cookie and usually right when he makes statements. and none of it is man made!
It's entirely possible of course that your son is correct but, so far, there is no sign of such a trend. For now the trend in production has been steadily increasing and shows no signs of slowing down. I track the top 7 or 8 foodstuffs grown in the USA as well as temps and CO2 levels here:
https://www.survivalistboards.com/sh...4#post19347714

https://www.survivalistboards.com/at...2&d=1550183563
05-21-2019 02:14 PM
Creek Walker There's going to be a lot more soybeans planted this year in lieu of corn acreage.

I think May 26th is the cutoff date for crop insurance for corn so that will be a factor in total corn acreage planted.

I'm sure that a year like this makes some farmers wish they'd planted winter wheat as a cover crop and just maybe we'll see the practice return.
05-21-2019 01:48 PM
STEEPOE
Quote:
Originally Posted by Good beer View Post
It's snowing right now.
My brother lives in NW Wisconsin and he sent me a video of the snow as he was turkey hunting.
05-20-2019 10:11 PM
Velvet Elvis
Quote:
Originally Posted by barnetmill View Post
Trade war with china might mean less corn sold overseas leading to lower food prices here. Of course some farmers might go out of business. Successful farming has always been a gamble since it started during neolithic.

I am not eating too much corn or corn products these days anyway.
These days I am eating a lot of herring cooked in water and no meat other than a fast hamburger now and then; never any fries or soft drink. I drastically cut down on my wine drinking. BP last timed it was checked was 105/52 and the doctor keep wanting to see my ankles to make sure they were not swelling up.
It's not just the corn prices and the farmers. It's likely to raise prices significantly on lots of commercial goods. So, struggling farmers, rising prices from the trade war, potential scarcity of domestic produce and rising prices due to this late, cold, wet spring in most parts.... might be drawing down some of the mylar food surplus in a few months.
05-20-2019 08:16 PM
ksmedman
Quote:
Originally Posted by Velvet Elvis View Post
Add in the tariff / trade war with China.. could get ugly this year
Or it could balance things out.
If no exports, a lag in production (supply) could even out the lack of demand.
We'll have to see.
05-20-2019 07:13 PM
Velvet Elvis
Quote:
Originally Posted by wilderness bushman View Post
that's almost funny ,,,I am within 20 miles of Canadian border and was planting potatoes this morning in northern Minnesota,,, things are behind here as well but at least it dried out the last little bit ,,,enough I could work the ground and get started planting
Duluth area had some snow I think I heard.
05-20-2019 06:07 PM
powderandprimers
Quote:
Originally Posted by Good beer View Post
Looks like plenty more rain is on the way this week. The garden area is really spongy as it is. I'm supposed to be harvesting asparagus right now and only a spear and a half is up.
Interesting, I'm experiencing the same thing with my asparagus this year too. I almost think much of mine may have died. The spears that are coming up are very light in color I'm noticing too.
05-19-2019 02:51 PM
wilderness bushman
Quote:
Originally Posted by Good beer View Post
It's snowing right now.
that's almost funny ,,,I am within 20 miles of Canadian border and was planting potatoes this morning in northern Minnesota,,, things are behind here as well but at least it dried out the last little bit ,,,enough I could work the ground and get started planting
05-19-2019 10:36 AM
Jack Swilling I expect the harvest will be fine
May no be great or set records, but there will be no shortage
Farmers are good at dealing with weather
The only grain I eat right now is organic corn meal ond steel cut oats
05-19-2019 10:25 AM
Good beer
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sky1950 View Post
My son, who is very knowledgeable on this Climate Change stuff, says significant crop yield reductions throughout the northern hemisphere will occur for at least the next 30 years. Solar positioning and all. It's far too complicated for me, but he's a smart cookie and usually right when he makes statements. and none of it is man made!
It's snowing right now.
05-19-2019 10:06 AM
Sky1950 My son, who is very knowledgeable on this Climate Change stuff, says significant crop yield reductions throughout the northern hemisphere will occur for at least the next 30 years. Solar positioning and all. It's far too complicated for me, but he's a smart cookie and usually right when he makes statements. and none of it is man made!
05-19-2019 09:58 AM
barnetmill
Quote:
Originally Posted by Velvet Elvis View Post
Add in the tariff / trade war with China.. could get ugly this year
Trade war with china might mean less corn sold overseas leading to lower food prices here. Of course some farmers might go out of business. Successful farming has always been a gamble since it started during neolithic.
Quote:
The Neolithic (/ˌniːəˈlɪθɪk/ ( listen), also known as the "New Stone Age"), the final division of the Stone Age, began about 12,000 years ago when the first development of farming appeared in the Epipalaeolithic Near East, and later in other parts of the world.
I am not eating too much corn or corn products these days anyway.
These days I am eating a lot of herring cooked in water and no meat other than a fast hamburger now and then; never any fries or soft drink. I drastically cut down on my wine drinking. BP last timed it was checked was 105/52 and the doctor keep wanting to see my ankles to make sure they were not swelling up.
05-19-2019 08:41 AM
Good beer Looks like plenty more rain is on the way this week. The garden area is really spongy as it is. I'm supposed to be harvesting asparagus right now and only a spear and a half is up.
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