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Old 11-28-2009, 11:29 AM
narrowpath11 narrowpath11 is offline
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Default What are your chances of being a victim of a violen crime?



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What do you think is the likelihood of you being a victim of a home invasion, mugging, robbery, assault, etc.
Old 11-28-2009, 12:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by narrowpath11 View Post
What do you think is the likelihood of you being a victim of a home invasion, mugging, robbery, assault, etc.
Totally depends on where you live and who you are.

Your best bet to guard against these kinds of crimes is to make sure all your doors and windows have good quality locks on them, and to be conscientious about keeping everything locked up. Leaving your outdoor lights on at night will also be a major deterrent. Motion-sensitive lights are even better and aren't expensive. If that's still not good enough, get a home alarm system from a company like ADT. Only after you've done all that stuff should you consider buying a gun for home protection. Confronting a burglar should always be your last option. And NO, you don't need 50 guns to accomplish this, nor do you need to spend weeks gathering online advice and debating various "experts" about the merits and flaws of several dozen gun designs in order to narrow it down to just the right choice: Some kind of base model pump-action shotgun like a Mossberg 500 or a Remington 870 will do fine, as will a medium-caliber revolver or semi-auto (buy a Taurus and save some money).

Don't want to be a victim on the streets? Your first step is to not invite violence: Walk, stand, and act with confidence to project an appearance of strength, but don't be aggressive. If some guy at 7-11 or on a street corner wants to be a jerk and try to stare you down, don't take the bait and stare back. Be a grown up and realize it isn't worth it. Also, be alert at all times for suspicious people or things, and actively avoid any threats. Avoid places where you're likely to find trouble like bars, pool halls or just the bad side of town altogether. Avoid getting drunk at all when you're not in a safe place (your house, a friend's house, or a bar on the good side of town). Learn to defuse conflicts and to back down from arguments. Again, it's probably not going to be worth ****ing someone off. If you're still not feeling safe after having made these changes, then start doing a lot of jogging so at least you'll be in good enough shape to run away from people after you **** them off. If that still isn't good enough, 1) you're one seriously unlucky b@stard and 2) you should think about carrying a concealed firearm for protection.
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Old 11-28-2009, 12:20 PM
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Out and about I would say less then most. I pay attention to whats going on and stay out of most problems situations. Granted something could always come up but since most dont pay attention thats why I say better then most. At home I would feel sorry for anybody who would come over and try. First they would become dog food real quick. I have 530 LBS of doogs just wanting a guest for dinner. Alarms cameras and a big POed off me. If anybody gets within 100 yards we know. So its kinda nice. Aall of our neibors watch out real well but still are not nosey. So pretty good.
Old 11-28-2009, 05:00 PM
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Technically, I have already been a victim of a violent crime. At least thats what I've been told every time I'm called for jury duty and I'm not picked.
My daughter was murdered by a local drug gang back in '99'. I don't know if theres a "waiting period" for that distinction to end. But I do know that I am never picked for juries *sigh*. I think if they would read my Impact statement they wouldn't even bother selecting me for the pool LOL
I was told by the Prosecuting Attorney that I intimidated him LOL
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Old 11-28-2009, 05:08 PM
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Statistics say you are much more likely to be the victim of violent crime if you spend time in low income, ghetto type areas. Not that it can't happen elswhere. Also, perps are looking for an easy mark. If you look like you'de be trouble, you're less likely to be targeted.
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Old 11-28-2009, 06:45 PM
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Yes, as was said, it all depends on where you live. However, in general, here's the risks as I see them:

Home invasion = This one is the hilarious one since it's the most talked about, esp by new gun owners/buyers. IMO, esp if you have a med/large dog, the chances of home invasion are virtually zero unless you are mixed up with gangs, drugs, have a crazy ex, etc. Burglars will case houses, esp "big scores," and hit when they're sure owners are at work/vacation. Violent assault criminals or robbers wouldn't be dumb enough to risk trespassing into someone's castle and risking guns/dogs/etc when there are plenty of much easier targets out in parking lots, alleys, etc. The one exception is maybe housing with a front door on the outside (think motel style apartments) where a robber could make a fast getaway; in that setting + shady neighborhood, you have to stay aware... and probably get a strong door, wedge, etc. The best firearm for HD is probably a med/large calibur handgun (9mm/38sp or larger)... possibly with short barreled pump shotgun available also for looting prevention in emergency/SHTF. All the guns you can buy still won't do you any good if you don't have an alarm to get ready, though, and there is really no alarm better than a decent sized, well trained dog.

Mugging = This is the biggest threat on the list for most Americans, IMO. It depends where you work and spend your free time. A woman who works in a inner city Philly emergency room, has to park 3 blocks from the front door, and goes out to nightclubs on her nights off is obviously high risk, while Joe Suburbia who works at a fortune 500 and plays golf on weekends is obviously relatively low. The CCW handgun that is concealable, practiced with, and light/comfortable enough to carry every day, probably in the range of .32 to 380 to 38sp to 9mm to maybe a 40 depending on your size/dress/comfort, is the clear choice here.

Robbery = It depends where you work. If you work a liqour store in a dicey part of town? Fairly good. A high rise office or coffee shop across from the PD? Not so much. If you're a business owner/partner looking for defense and loss prevention, I'd go with a setup similar to HD: med/large calibur revolver or pistol and/or pump shotgun, depending on the venue.

Assault = If you're a guy, not too likely unless you spend a lot of time in bars, clubs, concerts, etc where there is frequent alcohol-fueled confidence. If you're a woman, you always have to be careful, esp if you frequently use public transportation. Again, CCW handgun is your choice here.

A great book on this is "The truth about self protection" by Masood Ayoob. A bit dated but still probably the best guide out there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WILL View Post
Statistics say you are much more likely to be the victim of violent crime if you spend time in low income, ghetto type areas. Not that it can't happen elswhere. Also, perps are looking for an easy mark. If you look like you'de be trouble, you're less likely to be targeted.
Yep^
In SHTF looting defense or day to day crime prevention, it's all about AVOIDING looking like the sick straggling animal falling behind the herd. No wolfpack is gonna risk injury to take out a well built buck with a 10pt rack when a weak doe tastes just as good. Yeah, if you flash your money or lavish car/clothes/jewelry/etc, you become a mark, but that goes without saying.

Last edited by slyguy; 11-29-2009 at 12:49 PM..
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Old 11-28-2009, 07:02 PM
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The 2008 FBI stats say:

■An estimated 1,382,012 violent crimes occurred nationwide in 2008, showing a decrease of 1.9 percent from the 2007 estimate.
■The 2008 estimated violent crime total was 1.6 percent above the 2004 level but 3.1 percent below the 1999 level.
■There were an estimated 454.5 violent crimes per 100,000 inhabitants in 2008.
■Aggravated assaults accounted for 60.4 percent of violent crimes, the highest number of violent crimes reported to law enforcement. Robbery comprised 32.0 percent of violent crimes, forcible rape accounted for 6.4 percent, and murder accounted for 1.2 percent of estimated violent crimes in 2008.
■In 2008, offenders used firearms in 66.9 percent of the Nation’s murders, 43.5 percent of robberies, and 21.4 percent of aggravated assaults. (Weapon data are not collected for forcible rape offenses.) (See Expanded Homicide Data Table 7, Robbery Table 3, and Aggravated Assault Table.)

Full data can be found here: http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2008/offe...ime/index.html
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Old 11-28-2009, 10:17 PM
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Far less, now that I have a shotgun and upgraded the strength of my doors.

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What do you think is the likelihood of you being a victim of a home invasion, mugging, robbery, assault, etc.
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Old 11-28-2009, 10:22 PM
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If it can happen, it will happen
Old 11-29-2009, 01:43 AM
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You can see crime stats for your city at http://www.melissadata.com/lookups/crimecity.asp
Lots of other handy links at the parent site http://www.melissadata.com/Lookups/
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Old 11-29-2009, 02:14 AM
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Murphy is an optomist.

It depends on where you spend the most time. In a hi crime area, yup, not if, but when. I was at an ATM once, in a Sheriff's uniform with a plain parka over it and an idiot tried to sell me Rock Cocaine. He got to see me everyday for about a year.

Situational awareness is key. Like others have said, watch what's going on around you, Act like are aware and "Be Prepared".
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Old 11-29-2009, 03:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by narrowpath11 View Post
What do you think is the likelihood of you being a victim of a home invasion, mugging, robbery, assault, etc.
Probably pretty low, at least for the time being. Crime is low here and I live in a good area. My property is pretty secure and I'm armed whether at home our out amongst the sheeple.

Like all other predictions, nobody can really predict the likelihood of problems. If we could, we would simply avoid the situation ahead of time. But life being what it is, the best we can do is be prepared.
Old 11-29-2009, 03:43 PM
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Question for all: do you think people have a higher chance of being the target of violent crime in a liberal or conservative city?

(I was going to say "state" but even in my liberal state, there are conservative regions and cities.)
Old 11-29-2009, 04:54 PM
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i would say me being a victim would be slim to none
im armed at all times and pretty aware of my surroundings and i trust no one
plus im heavily tattooed so im not really approachable
Old 11-29-2009, 05:08 PM
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statistics are just that stats . risk is really a matter of where you are with who you are and how you and others act ,dress ,talk, how ppl perceive you and also what skin collor you are . dont get me wrong im not racist but i do know that some ppl out there are just looking for an excuse to beat the crap out of somone .
Old 11-29-2009, 05:24 PM
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Your chances of a violent crime happening to you are higher than ever in my opinion. Never let your guard down no matter where you live or how you perceive your area to be.

It will only climb higher and higher.

Personally, I think your risk is very high if you live in an area where it is mostly middle class people struggling but section 8 is rampant in the surrounding areas.

Just read an article that stated 20,000 people a day are jumping onto the food stamp bandwagon.
1 in 3 blacks are on food stamps, 14% of latino are on food stamps and 8% of whites are on the stamps.

With 20,000 more people a day needing the government to support them with the basics your risk of violence goes up and up.
Old 11-30-2009, 10:48 PM
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Not sure if liberals or conservatives commit more violent crimes, but I'm willing to bet that the poor commit more blue-collar crimes, and the wealthy commit more white-collar crimes. So in that regard, you're more likely to be the target of either sort of crime in a city than in the country. It's pretty dubious to categorize common thugs as politically driven idealogues. More likely unemployable, on drugs, on the lam or dole, or all of the above.

Since conservative/liberal are pretty much just suit colors at this point, the the answer to whether there's a higher change of being a target of violent crime in a liberal or conservative city is: yes.

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Originally Posted by bulrush View Post
Question for all: do you think people have a higher chance of being the target of violent crime in a liberal or conservative city?

(I was going to say "state" but even in my liberal state, there are conservative regions and cities.)
Old 12-01-2009, 08:46 PM
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Don't live in the clouds. Realize that violent crime can happen anywhere at anytime. Don't let it cause you to live in fear, but with a high degree of awareness.Stay alert to your surroundings.

Become knowledgable of how to defend yourself against violent crime, and do your best to make the perpetrator the victim after he/she instigates a course of events.
Old 12-01-2009, 09:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by East Coast Woods View Post
Don't live in the clouds. Realize that violent crime can happen anywhere at anytime. Don't let it cause you to live in fear, but with a high degree of awareness.Stay alert to your surroundings.

Become knowledgable of how to defend yourself against violent crime, and do your best to make the perpetrator the victim after he/she instigates a course of events.
I couldn't agree more. My brother has been car jacked twice and my sister held up at gun point three times. I guess I am the lucky one, but I don't live with my head in the sand thinking it can't happen. On the same note, I don't let it rule my life either. Evil exists everywhere.
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Old 12-01-2009, 09:17 PM
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Default Anywhere, anytime if not aware.

Quote:
Originally Posted by East Coast Woods View Post
Don't live in the clouds. Realize that violent crime can happen anywhere at anytime. Don't let it cause you to live in fear, but with a high degree of awareness.Stay alert to your surroundings.

Become knowledgable of how to defend yourself against violent crime, and do your best to make the perpetrator the victim after he/she instigates a course of events.
Agree. Near four years ago, I was in a potential jury pool in my community. The jury was being selected for an armed robbery and homicide case. The defendant was the get away driver for a robbery that occurred at a local pawn shop. During the course of the robbery, the owner and one of the robbers exchanged gun fire and both were killed.

During the jury selection we were brought into courtroom in groups of 14. We were asked many questions, the the first one asked by the defendants attorney, was if either we or any member of our families had been a victim of violent crime. Of those 14 in my pool, only I and one elderly lady could state that we had not been victimized. Very eye opening. WHen queried, I heard some terrible tales. One young lady asked to speak to the judge, I assumed at the time that she had been the victim of a sexual assault and did not want to discuss this openly. She was dismissed by the judge and never returned to the box.

So, for where I live, according to the method of jury selection and random probability, the chances are 12 in14 that you or a member of your family, may become a victim of violent crime in your lifetime. That equates to an 85% chance in East Baton Rouge Parish. Just great!
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