Survivalist Forum

Advertise Here

Go Back   Survivalist Forum > Survival & Preparedness Forum > Financial Forum
Articles Chat Room Classifieds Donations Gallery Groups Links Store Survival Files



Financial Forum Economics and Precious Metals

Advertise Here
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 06-05-2013, 09:27 AM
mes228 mes228 is offline
Prepared
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 256
Thanks: 0
Thanked 360 Times in 122 Posts
Default Economy - A Heads UP Warning



Advertise Here

I'm no economic guru or Economist, however I do own a business. We do Trade Shows and Gun Shows over all the Mid-Atlantic States. I'm on the cutting edge of actual sales to the public. Where the rubber meets the road so to speak. Not someones opinion, or guess, or estimate of economic activity several months down the road. The real deal, right now, honest data. And I think that in fairly short order things will tighten up dramatically. Why do I say that? Because in the last month my Credit Card sales have plummeted 97% from the average over the last six months.

I have read that the average American has about 5% disposable income. I think that 5% has been "consumed" by increases in necessities. And concerns about the future. Just my opinion. But it's based on a precipitous drop that has been almost instantaneous.
Old 06-05-2013, 09:32 AM
Sneeky Sneeky is offline
Hiker
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 689
Thanks: 323
Thanked 744 Times in 320 Posts
Default

Maybe folks suddenly just do not want their transactions with you recorded, like for guns or ammo?
The Following 7 Users Say Thank You to Sneeky For This Useful Post:
Old 06-05-2013, 09:34 AM
juskom95's Avatar
juskom95 juskom95 is offline
I aim to misbehave.
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Kentucky
Age: 31
Posts: 9,885
Thanks: 25,630
Thanked 19,236 Times in 6,930 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by mes228 View Post
I'm no economic guru or Economist, however I do own a business. We do Trade Shows and Gun Shows over all the Mid-Atlantic States. I'm on the cutting edge of actual sales to the public. Where the rubber meets the road so to speak. Not someones opinion, or guess, or estimate of economic activity several months down the road. The real deal, right now, honest data. And I think that in fairly short order things will tighten up dramatically. Why do I say that? Because in the last month my Credit Card sales have plummeted 97% from the average over the last six months.

I have read that the average American has about 5% disposable income. I think that 5% has been "consumed" by increases in necessities. And concerns about the future. Just my opinion. But it's based on a precipitous drop that has been almost instantaneous.
I would agree with you there.
I have watched my own disposable income shrink as goods/services have raised in price. I don't buy nearly what I used to (mostly house repairs etc) and don't eat out but once a month.
Its a bad economy out there, with little sign of it getting better in the near future.
The Following 7 Users Say Thank You to juskom95 For This Useful Post:
Old 06-05-2013, 09:46 AM
Castor's Avatar
Castor Castor is offline
You Cant Eat ......
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,003
Thanks: 2,252
Thanked 2,418 Times in 736 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by mes228 View Post
Why do I say that? Because in the last month my Credit Card sales have plummeted 97% from the average over the last six months.
not saying your wrong here but if you are in the business of selling guns or selling at gun shows, you have to take into consideration the Sandy Hook effect and the large amount of sales of guns/ammo etc immediately afterwards as people stocked up in anticipation of governmental action.
The Following 11 Users Say Thank You to Castor For This Useful Post:
Old 06-05-2013, 09:53 AM
Mogli's Avatar
Mogli Mogli is online now
Recent Blog: Atlanta, Georgia
The 5 will survive.....
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Toiling in the soil.....
Posts: 22,427
Thanks: 57,793
Thanked 59,715 Times in 18,552 Posts
Default

That's true Castor. Most 2nd Amenders, have guns and ammo at the very top of their 'must have' list. Not as a luxury item. I'm still rarely able to find the .223 or .22 that I'm still trying to stack.

Edit to add-

Woo-hoo, thanks Castor. Look what I found this morning thanks to your thread! Reloadable too for $550.99 and a really cool ammo case too! YAY!

http://www.sportsmansguide.com/net/c...aspx?a=1042348

900 rounds .223 (5.56 x 45mm) 62 Grain M855 FMJ Ammo, PRICED LOW!

900 rds. .223 (5.56x45mm) 62 Grain. M855 FMJ AR-15 Ammo


__________________
I'm coming to get you!!! AND, I'm bringing my dogs!!!

The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Mogli For This Useful Post:
Old 06-05-2013, 10:08 AM
Captain Worley's Avatar
Captain Worley Captain Worley is offline
Hiker
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 570
Thanks: 162
Thanked 645 Times in 277 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sneeky View Post
Maybe folks suddenly just do not want their transactions with you recorded, like for guns or ammo?
Winner, winner,Chicken Dinner!
The Following 4 Users Say Thank You to Captain Worley For This Useful Post:
Old 06-05-2013, 10:31 AM
mes228 mes228 is offline
Prepared
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 256
Thanks: 0
Thanked 360 Times in 122 Posts
Default Credit

I do not sell Guns or Ammo. I sell mainly Medical Kits and various Medical Supplies, Gun Shot Wound Kits, Emergency Gear, Lighting, Survival Tools, Knives, & Equipment, etc.etc.

Perhaps I wasn't clear enough. In my opinion, a substantial portion of consumer purchases are based on credit sales. Few purchase a house, car, or even something as inexpensive as firearm all CASH. I was speaking of CREDIT CARD SALES. The consumer is out of credit or at least the desire to use it (or so it seems). Cash sales are almost lesser in size. Multiply this through out the economy and it signals a down turn. But as I said, I'm no guru or expert. My opinion is only an opinion, but it's based on doing this for over 15 years. I guess we will see by living the next several months.

I saw this at Market Ticker http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=221441 on a decrease in wages. Which prompted me to post what I did. With only 5% disposable income (if the figure is correct) even a small decrease in available income becomes significant in sales.
The Following 5 Users Say Thank You to mes228 For This Useful Post:
Old 06-05-2013, 10:33 AM
pastornator pastornator is offline
Survivor
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Wisconsin
Posts: 2,597
Thanks: 525
Thanked 3,634 Times in 1,534 Posts
Default

I think that people are tapped out.

Gas hit $4.09 this morning in Milwaukee for no reason at all. Store prices rise almost weekly. Starting to take its toll round 2.
The Following 7 Users Say Thank You to pastornator For This Useful Post:
Old 06-05-2013, 10:38 AM
RandiTS's Avatar
RandiTS RandiTS is offline
VIP Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Texas
Posts: 4,448
Thanks: 17,115
Thanked 10,244 Times in 3,368 Posts
Default

$4.09??? For unleaded or diesel???

Whoa... I drove through four states on Sunday (TN, AR, LA, and TX) and, although I only filled up once, I paid $3.46 for PREMIUM in Arkansas at a Texaco.

I always keep an eye on the gas prices as I drive through and that was on the low side but the most for premium it went up to was $3.56.
__________________
Our "Lone Star Bayou"
Old 06-05-2013, 10:42 AM
RWS RWS is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Johnson County, Kansas
Posts: 42
Thanks: 30
Thanked 110 Times in 22 Posts
Default

Thanks Mes228, what you are seeing is one of the symptoms of a much larger illness. Our economy is very sick. People like yourself are noticing that something is going on. These are warning signs, symptoms. Unfortunately people are not really paying attention or are in denial about it.
The Following 6 Users Say Thank You to RWS For This Useful Post:
Old 06-05-2013, 10:44 AM
pastornator pastornator is offline
Survivor
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Wisconsin
Posts: 2,597
Thanks: 525
Thanked 3,634 Times in 1,534 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RandiTS View Post
$4.09??? For unleaded or diesel???

Whoa... I drove through four states on Sunday (TN, AR, LA, and TX) and, although I only filled up once, I paid $3.46 for PREMIUM in Arkansas at a Texaco.

I always keep an eye on the gas prices as I drive through and that was on the low side but the most for premium it went up to was $3.56.
Unleaded. Diesel has run in the 3.89-4.99 range for the past several years consistently.

Big jump... It was 3.69 a couple days ago!
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to pastornator For This Useful Post:
Old 06-05-2013, 10:55 AM
txflyer's Avatar
txflyer txflyer is offline
Silver Wings
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Wild Blue Yonder
Posts: 10,613
Thanks: 21,891
Thanked 21,539 Times in 7,327 Posts
Default

Thanks for the heads up, but I'm way ahead of you ....


__________________
tailwinds...

Disclaimer: The information I provide is my unaffiliated opinion and not reliable as financial advice. Past performance guarantees SHTF.
The Following User Says Thank You to txflyer For This Useful Post:
Old 06-05-2013, 11:05 AM
hanzy4200's Avatar
hanzy4200 hanzy4200 is offline
Always Loaded
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Southern PA
Posts: 1,568
Thanks: 403
Thanked 2,392 Times in 827 Posts
Default

What you say about the credt card use is odd. I'm in the food service business, and just last night we were discussing this issue. We have seen a dramatic rise in card sale vs cash. It used to around 25% of our sales were credit, it is now nearing 60%. People are relying more and more on credit.
The Following User Says Thank You to hanzy4200 For This Useful Post:
Old 06-05-2013, 11:18 AM
Gardog's Avatar
Gardog Gardog is online now
Survivor
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Out side Mobile, Alabama, In the woods !
Posts: 2,815
Thanks: 31,211
Thanked 6,646 Times in 2,270 Posts
Default

I helped a friend work a gun show last weekend and he did not sell one thing. I talked to several venders and thay all had a crappy weekend to. But there will be an ebb and flow to this untill BO is out of office.
Old 06-05-2013, 11:33 AM
Preacherboy Preacherboy is offline
Learning
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Michigan
Posts: 4,706
Thanks: 2,183
Thanked 3,871 Times in 2,004 Posts
Default

Gas is $4.06 and diesel is $3.97...but the real reason people aren't buying guns/ammo right now imo is that they are maxed out. People went so absolutely crazy/panicked after Sandy Hook that they bought everything. Ammo at decent prices is still selling out in less than a day on the internet.

I know I bought a lot more than normal (never paid bad prices, that is the key); but I haven't bought in more than a month as I'm paying off my bill...that and some backorders are coming in and then those show up on my bill.

I have a few thousand on credit cards right now (and I personally know some people with a lot more than that)...at my current rate of paying them off (and by not charging anything new it will take me 2 more months).

So my take, credit cards are maxed because people already bought all they could. I know I bought enough (with the items I still have on backorder) to support my needs for many years.
The Following User Says Thank You to Preacherboy For This Useful Post:
Old 06-05-2013, 12:08 PM
Castor's Avatar
Castor Castor is offline
You Cant Eat ......
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,003
Thanks: 2,252
Thanked 2,418 Times in 736 Posts
Default

I think Trent tracks these things, but in a recent economic report (say 2 months ago) it reported a general deleverage of the average consumer and their credit card amounts.

I havent noticed an increase on my side of the business, but we do not sell general commodities. It would be interesting to see if the front lines are starting to see a jump, is that a canary in the coal mine near term.
Old 06-05-2013, 12:09 PM
spameggsbaconandspam's Avatar
spameggsbaconandspam spameggsbaconandspam is online now
Survivor
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Tampa, FL
Posts: 2,593
Thanks: 3,329
Thanked 5,701 Times in 1,983 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by hanzy4200 View Post
What you say about the credt card use is odd. I'm in the food service business, and just last night we were discussing this issue. We have seen a dramatic rise in card sale vs cash. It used to around 25% of our sales were credit, it is now nearing 60%. People are relying more and more on credit.
I'm curious how much of that is alcohol. You know what they say about sin and hard times.
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to spameggsbaconandspam For This Useful Post:
Old 06-05-2013, 12:24 PM
Sacajawea's Avatar
Sacajawea Sacajawea is online now
VIP Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 7,890
Thanks: 13,637
Thanked 23,212 Times in 6,404 Posts
Default

Quote:
The consumer is out of credit or at least the desire to use it (or so it seems). Cash sales are almost lesser in size.
I'll jump in here on this part of it. I think the desire to use credit, is what's shrinking before our eyes. It's a big deal, too... for the economists. Like a shift in mindset. The FED would like all of us to borrow like there's no tomorrow (as would a lot of the major financial institutions)... but we're not. I've been on this kick to pay off credit balances each month, so as to avoid the interest trap. I can't believe how high the interest rates are ALLOWED to be on credit cards right now. And I don't believe the crap about equal value being returned for that higher rate, with "rewards" either.

Credit helps increase the velocity of money (the speed with which it trades hands) that we're talking about on another thread. People are a bit skittish right now, and less comfortable buying anything they don't absolutely need.

This will throw a big unexpected behavioral change into the FED's plans. Wonder how they'll try to deal with it? LOL.
The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to Sacajawea For This Useful Post:
Old 06-05-2013, 12:35 PM
9mmParabellum's Avatar
9mmParabellum 9mmParabellum is offline
it is what it is
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: ohio
Posts: 3,353
Thanks: 1,448
Thanked 3,630 Times in 1,520 Posts
Default

last few years vehicles have been over priced.i have noticed they are not selling and people going from 4000$ asking price to 2500$ on cars with kbb values of 4k+.ammo prices are still up but guns have come down a lot,except small ccw pistols.
The Following User Says Thank You to 9mmParabellum For This Useful Post:
Old 06-05-2013, 12:53 PM
mes228 mes228 is offline
Prepared
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 256
Thanks: 0
Thanked 360 Times in 122 Posts
Default

hanzy4200, I think you are right. However, credit card use in the food business may be exception. Everywhere I go the restaurants are seemingly fairly full. Could it be with both husband and wives working, and perhaps a teenager or two. Everyone finds it simpler and easier to eat out than go home and cook. Everyone is weary by evening. I also think there is a move towards less expensive entrees, at least in our house. I know we eat at Olive Garden fairly often but mainly it's the soup/salad we order. Mexican restaurants seem to be doing a brisk business locally. I think it's because of price, overall you can eat a Mexican lunch cheaper that a hamburger (so we eat Mex fairly often). Many steak chains have specials currently when we dine out there. Just my thoughts and I have been known to be wrong.
Reply

Bookmarks



Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Good Bush economy attacked, bad Obama economy ignored by media 44Magnum Political News and Discussion 3 11-01-2012 09:30 AM
Broad Heads and Razor Heads Yehudi Primitive Weapons, Bows and Crossbows 2 10-06-2012 06:48 PM
Heads up north Texas! Tornado Warning! Highlander Disaster Preparedness General Discussion 16 04-04-2012 02:47 AM
Heads up New Zealand! TSUNAMI WARNING!!! danpauselius General Discussion 1 07-06-2011 07:38 PM
CODE RED! Economy In Collapse -- A Warning from Gerald Celente TAKEZO General Discussion 64 02-22-2009 05:17 PM


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:29 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright Kevin Felts 2006 - 2012,
Green theme by http://www.themesbydesign.net