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Old 09-12-2012, 08:21 AM
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Default Challenge to "3 days of food in Supermarket"



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On Survivalblog yesterday was a post from an individual who argues that there is far more food in supermarkets--many more days--than most preppers believe, and he makes an argument based on turnover that he believes refutes the "3-day supply argument."

Here's the link: http://www.survivalblog.com/2012/09/...y-allen-c.html

He also challenges the conventional wisdom that after an EMP attack up to 90 percent of the population would be dead within 12-18 months, arguing that there are no published reports or analyses that support that figure.


Preppers and survivalists, I think, sometimes are insular in their information sources--in other words, we tend to use sources and read things that support our views.

This piece challenged my views and I found that refreshing.

I do think he's wrong on the supermarket supply issue--yes, turnover is slow on some items, but that's because people don't buy them, not because there's a large supply. In an emergency, the shelves would be stripped.
Old 09-12-2012, 08:24 AM
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Interesting article, I'm surprised J.W Rawles published that since it challenges the dogma he helped create.
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Old 09-12-2012, 08:45 AM
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Originally Posted by escape View Post
Interesting article, I'm surprised J.W Rawles published that since it challenges the dogma he helped create.
Yes, he's pretty dogmatic at times.

I thought the EMP thing was interesting in that the number we all tend to take for granted--90 percent--is apparently not something that comes from a real analysis or study.

That said, does it really matter whether the number is 90 percent or 86 percent or something similar? No.

Nobody can know how many would die in an EMP attack because we cannot know the efficiency and yield of the weapon, nor how effective it will be at destroying ground-based electronics. I do tend to believe that, with an effective attack, 90 percent is quite realistic.

But either way, I prep against the possibility.
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Old 09-12-2012, 08:51 AM
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I just read most of the piece (written by the anti-prepper blogger) and I do not agree with his assessments - at ALL.

He feels that 90% dead (18 months) after an EMP is ludicrous.

He's not thinking very well on that one. I don't have time or energy to write a good counter-argument, but with an EMP we'd lose all access to modern medicine and would be back to boiling Willow tree bark to get Acetylsalicylic acid.

What about food and fuel? People in northern climates would struggle to stay alive in wintertime. People in the deep south would perish from the heat and hard labor of cultivating vegetables and fruit.

I could go on.

In a happy-happy world, grocery stores may have "more than three days stock," but what happens when the looters hit? They'll be cleaned out in MOMENTS.

The problem with the internet is that anyone can be an author and an expert, but this guy http://www.survivalblog.com/2012/09/...y-allen-c.html does not impress me.

Frankly, I think he's dead wrong.
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Old 09-12-2012, 08:52 AM
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I'd ask the person to visit a super market whenever they predict a snow storm in this area.

Even though we seldom get a severe storm and lose power for long, or have a state of emergency that closes the state for 3 days, the stores are stripped near bare empty.

If we do have a state of emergency,because of weather, it usually last only one day. Yet the stores have nothing in them. And not just one store but every store.

Sure there may be some canned goods or a few things in the frozen food sections. But everything else is gone.

Look at major weather related problems like Katrina and how folks didn't have enough food or water to make it even 5 days. And all while the stores were all looted.


It would appear to me, just by reading things like this that this guy have major mental problems.

"A recent volley with a prepper is the one that pushed me over the edge..............straw that broke the camel's back prompting me to blow off three preppers............ As with most tipping points, it was about something small."

Not that it happened but that it seems to happen to him frequently.
Some folks take great pride in thinking they know it all. This guy being one of those. Probably why he goes of the reservation far too frequently. His inability to have a discussion seems to indicate such. Problem is he see this same quality in others but lacks seeing it in himself.
Old 09-12-2012, 08:57 AM
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There isn't even a days worth of food in a store come SHTF. I see what those shelves look like when people make a run on the stores during pre hurricane prepping, and they look pretty bare.

In your normal everyday traffic, 3 days. In pre emergency traffic, At most 1 to 2 days.
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Old 09-12-2012, 09:01 AM
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I know a great many people who wouldn't make it 12-18 months past any kind of major event. Diabetics that routinely run completely out of their insulin. There are yet more who are unwilling to take care of themselves or think about the future because they honestly feel (direct quote here,) "That's the government's job." They don't read, don't follow news, don't discuss anything that might make them think.

No vegetable plots, no attempt at fitness - not even yoga, let alone martial arts or anything else strenuous. The things I go out of my way to learn, often at some expense (spinning and weaving, EMT-B, some familiarity with aircraft, though not a pilot, etc) are shocking to them. Why would anyone spend over $700 on a class, and more on equipment and supplies, when there are already hospitals and ambulances? I could have waited, saved more, and gotten an even bigger television!

Saving for things instead of living on credit cards also confuses them. There isn't a vehicle I've got that anyone else, anywhere, has any claim to. We have a mortgage. That's more than half done, and I can't wait to be rid of that.

Of people I've known over the last 15 years, I can easily picture a great many not surviving the beginning of some major event, EMP, invasion, or collapse. A great many more wouldn't last the 12-18 months afterwards. 9 out of 10? Probably. The ones I think would have a chance, I'm trying to guide. One wants a veggie garden, another is already keeping some hens, and so on.

Do what you can with the ones who seem to be leaning that way, don't waste your efforts on the rest.
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Old 09-12-2012, 09:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goose3 View Post
On Survivalblog yesterday was a post from an individual who argues that there is far more food in supermarkets--many more days--than most preppers believe, and he makes an argument based on turnover that he believes refutes the "3-day supply argument."

Here's the link: http://www.survivalblog.com/2012/09/...y-allen-c.html

He also challenges the conventional wisdom that after an EMP attack up to 90 percent of the population would be dead within 12-18 months, arguing that there are no published reports or analyses that support that figure.


Preppers and survivalists, I think, sometimes are insular in their information sources--in other words, we tend to use sources and read things that support our views.

This piece challenged my views and I found that refreshing.

I do think he's wrong on the supermarket supply issue--yes, turnover is slow on some items, but that's because people don't buy them, not because there's a large supply. In an emergency, the shelves would be stripped.
True, ive seen several members who have been affected by natural disasters claim and offered proof of barren shelves.

I've thought about this for a while and ive still can't decide if im a survivalist or a prepper, can't I be bi curious?

not all preppers are half assed grandmas at the very least they know there's a problem and are putting calories into fixing it.
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Old 09-12-2012, 09:15 AM
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I wasn't familiar with the blogger Goose linked to, but he sure seemed to have a burr under his saddle, lol!!

And Stephpd pegged it: he calls others 'know it alls', and then turns around and claims everyone but him is wrong, lol!
And I'd much rather have a granny with extra water, MREs, and some gold coins next door than a self-righteous grump, lol!
Old 09-12-2012, 09:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by determu View Post
(entirely out of context)
half assed grandmas at the very least they know there's a problem and are putting calories into fixing it.
I resemble that remark.

But I also, as you said, "put some calories into fixing it." Most of what I have isn't for me though, it's for making sure my kids and their kids will be ok. Anyone who wants to think long-term, needs to think in terms of the next few generations.

Have fun with this, I have clean stuff to put in my gym bag for 'date night' later, a box of spices to unpack into "the deep pantry" and a bridal shower to put together.
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Old 09-12-2012, 09:19 AM
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Waste of time reading it. I'm a prepper, survivalist, and homesteader.

There is no way you will find me looking for groceries at the store after a natural or man-made disaster. There is no possible way that the three grocery stores nearest my farm will have enough food in stock for the population of the nearest town. They would be cleaned out in one day or less. The most popular foods will go first, but the other foods would be gone too unless they have some really nasty stuff that no one will eat. Can't imagine trying to fight over the last gallon of milk or the last loaf of bread.

How many people will die, how soon after an EMP? Don't know, don't care. So long as it's not me or my loved ones, that's what concerns me. It would be tragic, but I wouldn't be sitting there watching the news, if there is any, so I wouldn't know the number of casualties.

So he hates preppers because we share tips online, when he's writing on a blog, sharing his opinion. Nutcase who should stay on the side of a mountain I'd say. I'll keep prepping.
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Old 09-12-2012, 09:20 AM
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To be honest, I wasn't real impressed with the article. He did seem to be what he was accusing others of - lacking humility, and having a know-it-all attitude.

I know someone who worked recently in a large grocery chain, and his comments plus my own observations in the smaller stores I go to make me pretty sure there is 3 days or less of food in them. Maybe it depends on where you live, and how the stores are run. But for us, there really is not a lot of food in the stores and they depend on multiple deliveries each and every day.

I know there are people who are prideful about the little prepping they have done, but the vast majority know they are only on a ladder of learning and doing, and that they need to do more. Maybe I am lucky in who I have talked to?

I don't know about the 90% mortality - I agree that the way the figure was derived was not helpful or good. I will give him that. But I do think an EMP that destroyed the electricity supply for a very large area would indeed cause many more deaths than what most people would estimate.

That article was his opinion - this post is mine! Worth what you paid for it, I guess!!
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Old 09-12-2012, 09:30 AM
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Yeah I always thought it was funny how when there was a prediction of a snow storm people would go crazy buying milk & bread. when I was a teenager on a farm once we lost power during a big ice/snow storm for 3 days. We ran a gen by tractor for 3 days str 24/7 to supply electricity to the farm & home. Roads to our place were closed for 3 days they had to bring big grader & a hugh plow to break through & open the road & I don't remember us worring abt starving with no food. Wonder why guessing because mom had food in pantry, canned goods etc.. just a little common sense will get ya along was people, but if you are one of those that always thinks there will be water there when you turn on your tap, or electricity when you turn on your big TV or open your fridge to get you endless supply of food, then Man R You Gone Be In For A Big Surprise when & If the SHTF!!! Be Aware & Prepare!!!
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Old 09-12-2012, 09:37 AM
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I have never been a real big fan of the 90% mortality rate after an EMP attack theory. After all, how old is human kind? Contrast that to how long we have had electricity. Yet the human race manage to thrive.

Will there be deaths? You betcha there will be and a lot of them. Those that are dependent on modern medicine is a prime example. Murdering each other to survive will take out another large percentage as well as those that mentally lack the ability to deal with it. So will disease from bad water and sanitation.

I just don't think that it will be 90%. I believe the human race has an amazing capacity to overcome adversity.

As for food stocks I have never experienced with that so I have to rely on others' experience.
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Old 09-12-2012, 09:56 AM
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Will since I put no stock in a nuclear EMP (a solar storm is a different beast entirely) it is rather hard to come up with anything more than a ? of how many could survive such a event. But with one fantastic concept to start you can create all other fantastic consequences as a result.

The 3 days of food in the stores is also a hard one. Since the food would not be distributed equally/fairly (ala folks grabbing everything they think is important in a disaster) to those with need it is impossible to establish a adequate day number. Most people can live for weeks without food (only a few days without water). Than there is the warehouse distribution centers in cities that supply the stores. How much is in them?

So the concept is interesting but hard to establish anything hard and fast as a rule.
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Old 09-12-2012, 09:59 AM
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I have lived through a week long "EMP" event. Tornado came through last year over 1 Million people without a shred of electrical power for about a week.

The truth of that event lies in the middle of what these guys are talking about.
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Old 09-12-2012, 10:02 AM
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I disagree with the article on stores having more than 3 days of food but I agree on the 90% casualty rate.
290,00,000 dying within a year and a half? Based on what? Bathrooms not working? No medicines? There will always be toilet facilities and medicines, they will change though and for most of human history we've managed to grow and expand without electricity. Of course many people will die but not 90%. Nor would an EMP be absolute, we still will have localized electricity production. As for heat, I live in CNY and i've heated solely with wood for over 3 years. Before that it was a backup for 5 years. Things can be done.
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Old 09-12-2012, 10:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goose3 View Post
Preppers and survivalists, I think, sometimes are insular in their information sources--in other words, we tend to use sources and read things that support our views.
I think that might be the most important point. A lot of what "everybody knows" in online survival discussion is a lot like the 90% death rate -- people keep repeating it until everybody believes it and nobody remembers that the origin was a work of fiction.
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Old 09-12-2012, 10:15 AM
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There's a huge difference between what's in the store verses what's in the warehouses.
Irregardless, those warehouse only keep a limited supply for all the stores they stock. It may look like alot but that's only because it's in one place.

Most all stores, except for the small corner mom and pop type, all rely on 'on time delivery'. That's a fact. It doesn't function if the grid, or trucking, goes down. If you live right next to the warehouse you'd be set. Someone 20-50 miles away, and not knowing where the warehouse is, would be stuck with only what's nearby them.

When you look at a map of the population density of this country it becomes apparent that over half the population live in a very small and congregated portion of the country. Most of that being far away from where most of the food is actually grown.

If the grid goes down the major cities would just have to take a bigger hit. All food is trucked in. And with millions of people and no food things get tense quickly. Heck, most crime is already in these cities and, at least for right now everything is fairly stable.

How much worse without all the things folks need but no way to get to it or it get to them?

Sure, before electricity man survived. But not this many people. And there were far more work animals to do the work.Except for the Amish few folks use a horse for farming or travel. It's not like we could start a rapid breeding program and get a 'horse in every garage' in a year. Mass transit would be a stagecoach, not buses, taxis, subways, trains or planes Lots less people moving around and at a much slower speed.

Take the guy in NYC. Where would you get food if it doesn't come into the city for months? Granted NYC has a good water system that doesn't require electricity but most cites don't. But you have in and around NYC well over 20 million people and no real farmland. Certainly not enough for even 1 million folks.

Beside food and water, without electricity cities become dead with no jobs or paychecks. Have a loss of electricity for more then a few days and most folks become broke. Have it go out for weeks or months and it gets compounded.

Those that don't think it could get 'that' bad just haven't thought through it all that much.
We are that dependent on fuel and all that it does for us.
Cut that out of the equation and many will die.
It's hard to even imagine life in cities without it.
In the country it's not all that much better.
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Old 09-12-2012, 10:17 AM
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When i have friends tell me that the Grocery stores have plenty of food i use an example my grandad showed me when i was younger, who was a prepper and owned 6 grocery stores. He took me to one of his stores the Wednesday before Thanksgiving Day. He showed me the back storage area that i had sen a thousand times stacked to the ceiling with cases of items and it was empty. We walked out into the frenzy and saw shelves stripped bare. He explained that this was just due to people getting together for Thanksgiving dinner. Even at a young age I knew that supermarkets get wiped out all the time for events like holidays that are not an emergency. Factor in trucks not rolling due to whatever scenerio you want to plug in and all the food and supplies will be gone in a matter of hours and that is if we are lucky. I plan on being no where near a grocery store or gas station when something goes down. And those that think it will not are crazy because it happens all the time. Ask anyone that has been through a hurricane, flood, wildfire, or earthquake.

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