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Old 01-25-2011, 01:36 PM
shamgar57 shamgar57 is offline
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Default Dollar Collapse Scenario



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With people in as much denial as they are how is the jump made/timetable from waking up to hearing that the Chinese & Russians have started massively dumping the dollar to empty store shelves.

John Williams is predicting that it begins this year and no later than 2 years from now. What are your personal thoughts especially with the debt limit issue coming up this March?
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Old 01-25-2011, 01:54 PM
bighanded bighanded is offline
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I've believed that a signficant deval of the USD is in process.. I've also believed that it could take a big dive in a moment...not sure what constitutes a 'crash'..but for many people, even 15% deval can mean they can't make it to the next paycheck.

for that reason, the wife and I decided that if there was something we wanted..ie a used travel trailer...that this was the time to go ahead and get it..paid cash so there's no debt attached.
same with our stores of food..particularly with consumables like that.. I might not can afford a 1,000 gals of gasoline and underground storage...but I can afford to keep a years worth of food on hand.
Is it the long term answer?...no..but it can help offset costs until we can make other adjustments.

Right now I also own a second home..small place...not where I want to live..but paid for . normally would have sold it and turned that cash into reducing the mortgage on this dream home that we live in...but at the moment, the market is poor, and the idea of having a house that is not in debt..well..that's pretty significant if we enter hyper inflationary times.

look..it's a buyers market right now on many things...whether its a guitar..cause others need to sell, or a used car, etc....only makes sense to hang onto so much cash/dollars in the bank...if I had kept $7k in the bank, given inflation.. I might be loosing 15% of that value this year.. ie about $1k..whereas I found a very good deal on a travel trailer that I bought, and since it was used and bought well below book, I am not taking a significant depreciation hit..more importantly.. I get to enjoy it and have it as a backup if my house sets fire, or we have to evac, etc...having that resource, purchased now, when I could negotiate a deal, vs scrambling after a shtf situation and having to pay premium or not being able to get it at all...you get the idea.
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Old 01-25-2011, 02:14 PM
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A few of my friends have been passing this back and forth.........

Food for thought.................

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Old 01-25-2011, 03:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shamgar57 View Post
With people in as much denial as they are how is the jump made/timetable from waking up to hearing that the Chinese & Russians have started massively dumping the dollar to empty store shelves.

John Williams is predicting that it begins this year and no later than 2 years from now. What are your personal thoughts especially with the debt limit issue coming up this March?
Well, first the Chinese and Russians (and Japanese and Brazilians, I think those are our 4 big debtors) have to start dumping the dollar. As long as they don't, there should be no panic. And barring something truely bizarre, I don't think they will for a long time yet. There's too much money to be made off us, still...
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Old 01-25-2011, 03:17 PM
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US credit rating has been dropping and other nations are losing their faith in the US’s ability to pay its debt which now stands at $200 trillion according to some economists. That’s 80 years of federal income at present level. This debt is mostly promises of free healthcare and retirement to government employees, the military, and 78 million baby boomers who are now retiring to the tune of about 13,000 each day. Who DOESN’T think the US dollar can collapse soon?

Buy anything that is storable for years and won’t go bad NOW. Just buy items you actually need to survive – no toys or crap. Long term storable food is #1. Water filters are nice but you can boil river and lake water and it will not make you sick. The filters are really for removing most of the chemicals and times when you don’t want to build a fire because the smoke will give away your position or when you just don’t have the time to boil water. There is little chance of any industrial chemicals killing you if you’re not in a built-up area and away from roads and factories and large farms. You may get cancer 20 years later, but under survival conditions that is the least of your worries. Just boil the water. This is like the danger of mercury in wild fish: Who will be concerned about that when they’re starving?
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Old 01-25-2011, 07:41 PM
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Sheeple: get into the pool, I will now add the proper deadly amount of chlorine. Any takers?
Old 01-25-2011, 10:53 PM
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I say prep like it could happen tonight. Meaning, get beans, bullets, bandaids and out of debt AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

No one knows.
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Old 01-25-2011, 11:25 PM
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I say prep like it could happen tonight. Meaning, get beans, bullets, bandaids and out of debt AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

No one knows.

out of debt AS SOON AS POSSIBLE


This may be the single largest myth/misconception I see on the forum.

Say you owe $100,000 on your mortgage

Dollar collapses

Now you owe 100,000 collapsed dollars to a bank that most likely no longer exists


+ In a full on collapse, what you own is what you can defend

of course: In my opinion
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Old 01-25-2011, 11:38 PM
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"+ In a full on collapse, what you own is what you can defend"

What does that mean?

As far as staying out of debt goes, the point is you will save hundreds of thousands of dollars over your lifetime in finance charges if the collapse does not happen or happens 30 years from now, that money will come in handy. Also, if you lose your job, you will have less to worry about if you don't have a mortgage and have money in the bank. Collapse or no, everyone is better off with no debt.

Now I know there are those who think if you die with a penny in the bank that is a penny wasted and if you die in debt you have gotten one over on the bank. I'm just not one of them. I'm leaving something for my family -- if the government or hyper inflation does not take it.
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Old 01-26-2011, 07:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grevlin View Post
+ In a full on collapse, what you own is what you can defend

of course: In my opinion
Quote:
Originally Posted by Retreat Living View Post
As far as staying out of debt goes, the point is you will save hundreds of thousands of dollars over your lifetime in finance charges if the collapse does not happen or happens 30 years from now, that money will come in handy. Also, if you lose your job, you will have less to worry about if you don't have a mortgage and have money in the bank. Collapse or no, everyone is better off with no debt.

Now I know there are those who think if you die with a penny in the bank that is a penny wasted and if you die in debt you have gotten one over on the bank. I'm just not one of them. I'm leaving something for my family -- if the government or hyper inflation does not take it.
You're both right. Getting out of debt is of paramount importance since there could never be a collapse. I just refuse to do it at the expense of not stocking up too. If there is no societal/dollar collapse then you're MUCH better off if you have no debt. If the dollar collapses, you're debt will be irrelevant. Who's going to collect on that debt?

You have to live like the best will happen (pay off debt at reasonable rate) and plan/act like the worst will happen (don't forego stocking up to pay off your debt).

To expand on Grevlin's point, if the dollar is worthless, how are you going to pay your rent or mortgage? You're going to use dollars? If you don't pay, who is going to come evict you? Law enforcement will be too preoccupied with the starving zombies. For that matter, why would you even go to work unless they're going to be paying you in gold, silver, ammo, or beans? I don't think that people truly understand what it means to have the only currency you know ripped out from under you in a moment. It truly changes EVERYTHING about EVERYTHING you do. You're not immediately going to work until your employer figures out a way to pay you... at least I'm not. I'm staying home to protect my family until there is no more unrest. You're also not paying your bills/debts since there is nothing of value to pay them with.

In a dollar collapse, your debt means nothing. In the absence of a collapse, your debt means everything.
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Old 01-26-2011, 08:08 AM
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But monkey-boy said on the state of the union everything was OK. Crap, I'm out of kool-aid.
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Old 01-26-2011, 08:26 AM
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I never have understood the get out of debt advice as an essential preparation for a collapse. I just refinanced to a 15 year fixed rate mortgage. I suppose the theory is that you will lose you job and not be able to pay your mortgage. While private parties can refuse to accept US dollars, lenders cannot. Dollars say they are legal tender for all debts public and private. So if you can get dollars you can pay off your mortgage with devalued dollars. So then the question becomes where do you get dollars if you don't have a job. This is where accumulating gold, silver, or other high demand long term durable goods, or having the skill to provide essential goods and services post collapse is important. If your house is paid for, but you don't have anyway way to get food what good is that (yes, it's shelter, but you need more than that.) If there is a collapse the banks aren't going to be in a position to do much. Read Tom Sherry's absolutely excellent "Deep Winter" series (search for it here in the books sub-forum) on what is likely to happen with regard to housing.
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Old 01-26-2011, 09:41 AM
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I think some of you are just trying to come up with excuses for being in debt. I have never had a mortgage in my life and have owned several homes and commercial property at the same time. I retired in my early 50s. A BIG reason I was able to is because I never went into debt and built a home right out of high school with money I saved while still in school. Finance charges is money you are flushing down the toilet. That money could be saved for old age, and it adds up to hundreds of thousands of dollars. We have never had hyper inflation in the US (the Confederacy did, but not the US) or a dollar collapse. We HAVE had a depression where cash was KING and could buy you anything you needed to survive. A few thousand buried somewhere would have supported your family through the entire Depression years. Those who had a farm that was paid for and had a little money hidden away outside of banks got by okay. Those who had a mortgage or rented and no savings at home didn’t do so well. Those who had gold either turned it in when it was banned by FDR or risked going to prison for TEN years and a $10,000 fine at a time when whole families lived on less than $100 a year. It is ALWAYS good to be out of debt. Only one third of US homes are paid for; that helped to cause the real estate bust we are now in. Indebtedness is just plain stupid. It’s one of the main reasons so many are not able to retire on their own money. With a place to live and no debt, all you need for your family to survive is food, some utilizes, and transportation. That is not much of an expense, less than a mortgage payment each month. I can live on less than what many Americans’ car payment is. Add the cost of supporting the family and it’s still less than a mortgage payment. Those with no debt and a paid-for home are MUCH more financially secure under any circumstances.
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Old 01-26-2011, 09:47 AM
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..... Long term storable food is #1.
Water filters are nice but you can boil river and lake water and it will not make you sick. The filters are really for removing most of the chemicals and times when you don’t want to build a fire because the smoke will give away your position....
Actually, WATER has long been acknowledged as survival item numero uno.
And relying on boiling your water, given the economy and availability of quality filters is unrealistic and impractical. For about $60 bucks, delivered, you can get a pair of ceramic/silver-impregnated Berkey filters that will filter a couple thousand gallons.The amount of fuel needed ( wood? propane? ) to filter the same amount of water would be astronomical, and this doesn't even factor in the PITA of boiling that much, that many times.
Plus, a few Berkey filters are very portable, unline a cord of oak or tanks of propane.
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Old 01-26-2011, 10:00 AM
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The argument of not getting out of debt assumes a drastic and immediate collapse, where there would be nobody to collect on it. However, the more probable scenario would be a gradual decline over a period time. In this scenario, you could be out on the street while your neighbor sits comfortably in his home because he doesn't have high debt ratio and ever increasing consumer credit interest.

When preparing for every possible event, try to keep in mind Occam's razor.
Old 01-26-2011, 10:04 AM
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This is 100% correct.

I wonder, however, if the more germaine question is: we will even know they are dumping the dollar before it's too late for us sheep.

Sorry for my doubt, I just believe that we are fed what they want to feed us. With the advent of the "Dark Pools", which is a trading platform for buying/selling equities and such, for the elite and off record.
Old 01-26-2011, 10:11 AM
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Actually, WATER has long been acknowledged as survival item numero uno.
And relying on boiling your water, given the economy and availability of quality filters is unrealistic and impractical. For about $60 bucks, delivered, you can get a pair of ceramic/silver-impregnated Berkey filters that will filter a couple thousand gallons.The amount of fuel needed ( wood? propane? ) to filter the same amount of water would be astronomical, and this doesn't even factor in the PITA of boiling that much, that many times.
Plus, a few Berkey filters are very portable, unline a cord of oak or tanks of propane.
I have filters. One I have supposedly will filter 20,000 gallons. Wood is free to boil with. My retreat is in a national forest. The only water you have to boil is what you drink, cook with, and wash dishes in. There are millions who do not even boil water when in wilderness and have never gotten sick. I either boil or filter. You never know if a dead deer is rotting upstream.

The point I was making is filtering is not mandatory. If money is tight, buy food and just boil. I have a well on my retreat anyway. If the solar pump goes out, you can lower a well cylinder by rope into the well pipe and dip water out. There are devices for sale just for that. There is also a river about 100 yards from my cabin. There are bums living in the forest (the other end of the forest thank God) who drink out of ponds. These people would not dream of buying filters, they just boil. Some of them have lived this way for years, drinking boiled water. They use wood.

There are two kinds of people a survivalist can learn from: those who live in wilderness, like Alaska, and bums. They can show you just how little in the way of material things you need to live.
Old 01-26-2011, 10:29 AM
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Get out of debt! Ha! If there is a collapse of the dollar debt will not matter. The chaos that will follows will tear the country apart. I will continue to make payments on my meager amount of debt. And invest in guns, ammo, gold, silver and food.
Old 01-26-2011, 10:41 AM
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Mil-Dot:
Of course you can go longer without food than you can water. The thing is there is water everywhere unless you’re in desert and wood is all over the place to boil with (unless you live in a city) (hint: get out of the city). Food is much harder to get free.
Old 01-26-2011, 10:43 AM
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Get out of debt! Ha! If there is a collapse of the dollar debt will not matter. The chaos that will follows will tear the country apart. I will continue to make payments on my meager amount of debt. And invest in guns, ammo, gold, silver and food.
And I will continue to enjoy my early retirement which was made possible by staying out of debt. Everyone's happy. The banks and credit card companies love you people.
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