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Old 11-02-2010, 01:58 PM
shamgar57 shamgar57 is offline
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Default Your Societal Collapse Scenario - As you see it



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As you have war gamed in your mind potential scenarios what do you see coming down in the next two years. After studying Dimitry Orlov, people who lived in Argentina during it's collapse, I still come away with thinking that we're worst off for many reasons.
Old 11-02-2010, 01:59 PM
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thank you for bringing up Dimitry Orlov ,,le tme digest all this and i will share my thoughts
Old 11-02-2010, 02:02 PM
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What's coming in the next two years? More business as usual, the slowly draining toilet bowl downward spiral of civilization. God help us when it breaks loose.
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Old 11-02-2010, 02:27 PM
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People speculate, usually in very long, complex works that take a lot of thought to write and even more to read. This is because it's such a complex subject with so many variables. Let's see if we can put it in some very simple terms.

I can't look at the next 2 years, but I look at 3 month blocks. This is the beginning of November so we're safe for the next 3 - plenty of fake prosperity to spread around through the holiday season, a few sales, a few numbers being generated, all to carry us through. We'll have the new spring starts in May or so so it's the block after this one that will determine a path. But let's just outline it overall:



Is the US economy dying? Yes

Why is it dying? We're buried in debt, and have become a fat lazy service based nation that gave away our industries.

Will it be a quick death? No, unless something dramatic happens.

Dramatic? Yes, invasion, EMP, massive drought, any number of catastrophic occurances could be the straw that breaks the camel's back and sends us into a death spiral.

What will we see as it happens? More and more government control, higher food prices, tighter controls on firearms, massive media intervention to butter us up for accepting whatever plan there is to deal with it.

Can it be stopped? Yep, every american has to buy american products only, work and be productive, vote to decrease government, and pull together to become a truly sovereign nation again. Quit electing people because they're black or female or homosexual and elect them because they will work hard to lead us back on track. Work locally to bring back morality, community, and family. Close our borders up and get rid of every single person that doesn't belong here, and finally make english our official language. Limit welfare and other handouts dramaticaly. In other words, go pop in a Little House on the Prairie DVD and watch a few episodes, now be like that for starters. The odds of it happening are slim to none though, which is what creates the element of survivalists and preppers finding themselves secretly hoping for the collapse.

20 years ago I'd have looked ahead 20 years and planned for a house to be paid off or something, now I have to look ahead 20 months and plan on which forest I'll be hunkered down in.

We're all heading to a gas station that sits next to a pile of burning tires, will it finally blow while you're at the pump, in line, or long gone?
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Old 11-02-2010, 02:52 PM
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I go out of my way to not play the scenario game in my mind. The reason is that I look back at all the thousands of predictions that have come before and none of them got it right. So who am I to thinkt that I will? It's too easy to get caught up in "scenario prepping" and get blindsided by things we didn't expect.

What I do is look at human nature. What they're capable of and try to figure how they would act under differing conditions such as water shortage, long term power outage, or all out SHTF. I try to plan my responses accordingly. I use this to think through my possible defenses and try to gauge at which point I would bug out or bug in. What causes those conditions is pretty irrelevant. It's how we react to them that matters.

But predictions do nothing but make us look like loons. Our reputation is damaged bad enough already because of them.
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Old 11-02-2010, 02:56 PM
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Not too sure, but I do think China is going to factor in heavily.
Old 11-02-2010, 03:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shamgar57 View Post
As you have war gamed in your mind potential scenarios what do you see coming down in the next two years....?.
Nothing dramatic is going to happen, most probably. A few of the 20-something militia wanna-be's have their paranoid fears, but just haven't seen enough of life to know that nothing changes much.

I am expecting further economic downturn and jobs loss to affect us all locally, at a minimum, but maybe also some kind of nuke exchange and a climate crisis within 20 years.
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Old 11-02-2010, 03:19 PM
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<Clueless>

The only thing I see in the immediate time frame that will have serious consequences are the results of millions of Americans passing the 99 weeks of unemployment. As this continues to happen we are in unchartered waters since the great depression when there was no social safety nets.

The results of the 2009 lay-offs will be hitting in the coming Months in a very significate way. None of the options are very attractive, just another looming trigger.
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Old 11-02-2010, 03:25 PM
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I don't expect a full collapse of American society anytime soon but a transition to much less consumptive, low-impact lifestyles for most Americans is imperative.

Unemployment will remain high and real estate activity will remain low.
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Old 11-02-2010, 03:30 PM
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I envision a continuance of devisive racial politics that further increases the resentment and hatred of mainstream America by the have-nots, all with the goal of galvinizing these demographic groups into predictable voting blocks for their political masters. (Blacks are not predictable voting blocks because they cannot be counted on to actually get out and vote at the required time. Obama brought them out in massive numbers last cycle, but that was solely due to his skin color, and a hatred for whites).

With this increased, fomented hatred will come increased acts of violence in the name of racial payback against the mainstream. Then, of course, our dollar will plummet and the mainstream will demand a cessation of social welfare to able-bodied adults in the name of fiscal responsibility. This cutoff of funds will result in many parts of many cities going up in flames, as groups of ghetto dwellers attack wealthier areas en masse in order to collect their reparations. The biggest threat will be groups of ghetto dwellers led by an able, articulate leader. Those groups will be the most dangerous.

Maybe order will be restored in time, and maybe it won't. But as a person who lives very close to a, ahem, diverse area, I must prepare to defend my loved ones in the immediate, until order is restored and the bad people go back to their area.

That is my fear, and what I prep for. Not for me, really, but for the people I love who will look to me for protection. I must be prepared for them.

Last edited by I Buried My Guns; 11-02-2010 at 03:31 PM.. Reason: speling
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Old 11-02-2010, 03:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OhioMan View Post
...The only thing I see in the immediate time frame that will have serious consequences are the results of millions of Americans passing the 99 weeks of unemployment...
It is not those on 99 weeks of unemployment who scare me, but rather those on 25 years of welfare.

Those on unemployment were productive members of society. They know what it means to work hard and come home tired.

Those on generational welfare have never been productive members of society, and have been raised in the rich culture (sarc!) of the entitlement mentality. They know what it means to be oppressed by the man, who keeps them down and prevents them from owning their own record label.
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Old 11-02-2010, 03:40 PM
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Keep your powder dry...I believe it is far later than you all think. With such a corrupt system and we are basically hanging off the side of the cliff...any small pebble will do.
QE2
Banks need another bailout
foreclosure gate
flash crash(s)
state bankruptcy
debt ceiling moved again
Dollar dropping like a stone
Oil up
Food up


To name a few...too much to list.

Hope I'm wrong.
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Old 11-02-2010, 03:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Clatonious View Post
Quit electing people because they're black or female or homosexual and elect them because they will work hard to lead us back on track.
Or because they are ALL or NONE of the above. Politicians want to act like high powered CEO's flying around in their private jets, renting out entire hotels, etc, instead of acting like SERVANTS of the people, which is what they really are.

If they want to act like high powered CEO's, then they need to be treated like high powered CEO's. What's the #1 rule in business? Produce results or you are gone. Period.
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Old 11-02-2010, 03:54 PM
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The death of a country is a slow and painful process. Politicians thrive in an environment like this so they have absolutely no intention of changing things for the better.

Here's a scenario for you:
~The US public keeps voting based on party and not by who is a good leader
~Our desperation for jobs and security keeps increasing
~Politicians capitalize by creating an even larger divides between "we the people"
~doubt and crime increase, causing hundreds of new laws and bureaucracy
~The US becomes the second most powerful nation because we don't have enough of an employed workforce
~the blame game ensues while nothing productive is done to regain our previous glory
~BAM! some foreign or domestic power gets us with NBC, emp, or economic weapons

Of course this will take a very long time. By then the entitlement generation and whatever weak minded generation comes after them will be in power.
Old 11-02-2010, 04:08 PM
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Edited.....
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Old 11-02-2010, 04:38 PM
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I see more of the same
unemployment rising
taxes rising
poverty level rising
good people getting beat down with no way out
people who abuse the system still abusing the system

Great depression II
I see people becoming uneasy and very restless and civil unrest coming
The bad will remain bad
Some good will go bad
The rich will remain rich
middleclass will be eliminated

ANd slowly we will have to learn what community and family mean again or for the most part we wont make it

This will only get worse with no way out Untill finally it will be a civil war with racial and economic lines drawn
Old 11-02-2010, 05:44 PM
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Realistically, the lowering of our standard of living. I have been to a number of different countries, all with a significantly lower standard of living than the US. Jamaica is a prime example. Once you get out of the tourist areas it is nothing but rampant poverty. Eventually that poverty will strike us. When hyper inflation hits and money becomes worthless poverty will strike us all. That is when barter and trade will become very important.
Check your local penny sheets (trade newspaper in the convenience stores) and see what people are trading. There are a surprising lot that only want to trade rather than sell.
Old 11-02-2010, 06:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I Buried My Guns View Post
I envision a continuance of devisive racial politics that further increases the resentment and hatred of mainstream America by the have-nots, all with the goal of galvinizing these demographic groups into predictable voting blocks for their political masters. (Blacks are not predictable voting blocks because they cannot be counted on to actually get out and vote at the required time. Obama brought them out in massive numbers last cycle, but that was solely due to his skin color, and a hatred for whites).

With this increased, fomented hatred will come increased acts of violence in the name of racial payback against the mainstream. Then, of course, our dollar will plummet and the mainstream will demand a cessation of social welfare to able-bodied adults in the name of fiscal responsibility. This cutoff of funds will result in many parts of many cities going up in flames, as groups of ghetto dwellers attack wealthier areas en masse in order to collect their reparations. The biggest threat will be groups of ghetto dwellers led by an able, articulate leader. Those groups will be the most dangerous.

Maybe order will be restored in time, and maybe it won't. But as a person who lives very close to a, ahem, diverse area, I must prepare to defend my loved ones in the immediate, until order is restored and the bad people go back to their area.

That is my fear, and what I prep for. Not for me, really, but for the people I love who will look to me for protection. I must be prepared for them.
Exactly, look at France.
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Old 11-02-2010, 06:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bug Out Nation View Post
Here is one of mine:


Here is the scenario:

First lets work on the premise of:

1. Fema camps are real and martial law is planned

2. Forced extermination/population control to move us into NWO government

3. Swine Flu was a man made dry run

4. Katrina gun con was a dry run

5. Baxter scientest was legit



A new flu outbreak starts popping up in certain specific regions of the U.S. seemingly at random. Mainly in large population centers in certain conservative dominated states with one, or two liberal states thrown in as subterfuge. This flu will be new and more deadly than any previous. Government turns up the hype/fear stating you need/must get new vaccine.

People are starting to die in large numbers as public fear mounts. By miracle a new (not by coincidence) vaccine is finally produced. People start rushing in droves to get new vaccine. More people are now infected and dieing, since new vaccine is actually infecting people with a 2 week dormant state. Government and healthcare workers continue push on public vaccines. States are now vaccinating children in schools.

Some are starting to suspect foul play and are staying away from vaccine, or trusting the government and clueless hospital staff. CDC and presidents administration continues to turn on fear propaganda and begins taking certain steps to better containment/control of the flu situation.

Preppers/survivalist are now really worried and other non-standard sheeple are starting to take notice. More deaths mount including children and the disease is quickly spreading. News is in overtime trying to keep up on developments. Government finally enacts quarantine zones across regions of the U.S., but are intentionally making egress out of quarantine zones incredibly difficult/slow.

Public in quarantine zones starts turning to violence to escape the zones, because of fears of infection/dying. Government claims they are doing all they can and acts flabbergasted that people are becoming violent. Government begins to villianize quarantined public as extremist/terrorist to rest of the country. Some have made it out of q-zones, but government finally stops all exodus until situation can be better controlled.

Violence escalates to mass rioting inside quarantine zones. Deaths continue to mount and flu spreads further. Contact is cut off from all quarantine zones, but government blames the extremist as the ones doing it (through rioting). Family members outside of zone travel to zone borders to try and contact their loved ones.

President continues to vilify zoned public and now growing populace outside of zone borders. Government is regrettably forced (yeah right) to declare martial law. Now public evactuation in quarantine zones resumes. This time it's on trains headed for undisclosed loactions (fema camps) for decontamination. Civil unrest continues in buffer zones on both sides of the border.

Now because of supposed continued violence the government is unfortunately going to have to confiscate guns both inside and outside of the zones. Government claims it is the only way they can offer help without being attacked. Sheeple gladly submit. Public opionion attacks those who wont submit and calls them extremist. The government responds to those who aren't willing by offering vouchers (fake) for the firearms return after the flu has passed and everything is normal again. The militarized forces are now exterminating everyone within the zones as a green light. They claim all deaths are the result of flu, or uprising.


Fema camps are working overtime killing/inprisoning detainees. Border populace has been caught and rounded up to Fema camps. Quarantine zones are now done. Government now continues it's plans nation wide. New flu zones surprisingly pop up after it was thought they were well contained. After weeks of new deaths in new areas, the real vaccine is finally released.

Government continues with martial law and it's new agendas. Populace is to low/scared to disagree.
Our military isn't big enough and the combat hardened vets are some of the most, if not the most patriotic Americans.
Old 11-02-2010, 06:59 PM
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Read some of MIL-DOTS's posts.

I see and prepare for a long slow decline, not a fast tumultious period.
Learn Spanish. Learn a craft to supplement your income. Pay off your debts. Etc. Etc. Etc.

We will all go throught it together. Its not a right left thing anymore.
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