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Old 07-17-2010, 04:40 PM
Irnec Irnec is offline
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Default Super-volcano ash drift projections?



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Does anyone have a set of maps showing the likely path of ash clouds and the explosive radius of the various super-volcanoes?

(part 2: Super volcano = get far away and use particulate filters right? or do we need a filter to catalyse/remove the poisonous gases?)
Old 07-17-2010, 05:30 PM
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Of the Super Volcanoes around the world Yellow Stone, is one of the main ones of concern as it is on land. It would be almost impossible to predict the ash cloud direction as there are far too many variables. One of the main ones would be the type, size and force of the eruption and how high the ash plume has been forced in to the atmosphere. Then there is the issue of which way the jet stream happens to be traveling at the time and the wind velocity. To research more on volcanoes, this site is one of the best forms for it on the web. There are many volcanologists and serious amateurs that contribute.
http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/
This link lists the "known" super volcanoes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supervolcano
According to the experts, Yellow stone has erupted like clockwork every 600,000 years. So far we stand at 40,000 years over due.
http://www.rense.com/general31/overdue.htm
Old 07-17-2010, 10:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irnec View Post
Does anyone have a set of maps showing the likely path of ash clouds and the explosive radius of the various super-volcanoes?

(part 2: Super volcano = get far away and use particulate filters right? or do we need a filter to catalyse/remove the poisonous gases?)
The wind in the western US is basically to the east-northeast. The ash from yellowstone would likely cover the upper Midwest, Ohio valley, and the New England states.
Old 07-17-2010, 11:34 PM
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Predicting ash fall from a volcano is similar to predicting fallout from a ground burst nuke. Without specialized weather data taken at the time, you can't. Ash will generally be carried by the jet stream. The jet stream generally flows west to east but can flow north to south and south to north. So anywhere within a thousand miles north, south or east of an erupting super volcano could possibly get serious levels of ash deposit. And because other winds above and below the jet stream affect the cloud and because the eruption takes place over time and the winds at all levels will vary from one day to the next, it would probably smear out into a large blob rather than a clear plume.
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Old 07-18-2010, 11:04 AM
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The last erruption of the Yellowstone Caldera was 640,000 years ago. Here is some info and an actual ash map:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lava_Creek_Tuff

Based on the information and map, this could ruin your day....
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Old 07-18-2010, 07:59 PM
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Exclamation

So we have:

10 degree drop in global temps.
200m of ash covering 1/2 the US.
Eastern Coast-area unaffected for the most part.

Which gives us:

Lots of people, not much food and not enough heat.

Kind of a 10 year bunker situation then? =|
Old 07-21-2010, 07:21 PM
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10 years if you are lucky
Old 07-21-2010, 07:32 PM
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savor every moment you can folks.
Old 07-27-2010, 11:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irnec View Post
So we have:

10 degree drop in global temps.
200m of ash covering 1/2 the US.
Eastern Coast-area unaffected for the most part.

Which gives us:

Lots of people, not much food and not enough heat.

Kind of a 10 year bunker situation then? =|


I WOULD SAY 10,000 YEARS, 99% EXTINCTION OF ALL SPECIES, CHECK THE BOOK THE ROAD, CORMAC MACCARTHY (THERE IS A FILM NOW), THEY NEVER SAID BUT IN MY OPINION IT WAS A SUPER VOLCANO DUE TO ALL THE ASH EVERYWHERE THE BOOK GIVES A LOT MORE THAT IMPRESSION
Old 07-27-2010, 10:14 PM
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Default Map of Yellowstone beds

Here's a link to a map of the ash deposits from previous Yellowstone eruptions (from a Chinese website no less):

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english201...13390009_5.htm

Back in 2005 the BBC did a two or so hour long docu-drama about a present day Yellowstone eruption. Although fiction it's loaded with a lot of real facts. If you haven't seen it it's well worth watching. Here's a link to a site with it in a series of YouTube videos:

http://www.lucifershammer.net/2010/07/11/yellowstone/
Old 08-25-2010, 10:55 PM
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Default The good news

The good news in a supervolcano scenario is that you would have time to react; unless you were quite near it. For someone in Chicago, for example, there would be plenty of time to decamp.

I understand that there are other issues, such as destruction of farmlands, and a persistent winter brought on by clouds of ash.
Old 08-26-2010, 12:22 AM
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You could run, but you could not hide. If It blew, big time, it would be the EOTWAWKI, for sure.
Old 08-26-2010, 12:30 AM
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Yeah. Look down wind.
Old 08-26-2010, 07:30 PM
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Thickness of the tuff layer ranges from 180–200 m (590–660 ft).

590 to 660 feet deep? If you're planning on riding that out in a bunker, I hope you're planning on dying in that bunker too.
Old 08-26-2010, 07:36 PM
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one nice thing about living on the west coast, we dont have to worry about being burried
Old 08-26-2010, 07:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gear Grinder View Post
Thickness of the tuff layer ranges from 180200 m (590660 ft).

590 to 660 feet deep? If you're planning on riding that out in a bunker, I hope you're planning on dying in that bunker too.
I'd have say that pretty fairly summed it up.
Old 08-26-2010, 07:56 PM
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Saw the special on the Yellowstone caldera. The scenario it presented was pretty much "if it blows, we're doomed..." And I live in the Northeast, so I guess i'm in deep doo doo.
Old 08-26-2010, 08:12 PM
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This is how the ash deposited after the last to studied eruptions.




It is mostly a factor of continental prevailing winds, which as you can see from the map have remain fairly steady and stable in over a million years.

Chances are pretty good that the next time it blows, a similar ash fallout map will result.

It looks to me that Canada is the ticket...
Old 08-27-2010, 02:37 AM
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Well the "good" news is that humans have survived Mega Volcanic Eruptions a few times in our past. The last one, Toba was 70,000 years ago. Toba dwarfs any eurption ever at Yellowstone. Seeing that cavemen with little ability to stockpile food barely survived Toba, humanity should be able to barely survive another Mega Eruption.
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