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View Poll Results: How many years before the US falls apart
1-2 years 51 45.13%
3-5 years 33 29.20%
6-10 years 14 12.39%
11-15 years 1 0.88%
16+ years 14 12.39%
Voters: 113. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 04-23-2010, 01:02 PM
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Default Re: Your opinion on how long the US has before it falls apart



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Quote:
Originally Posted by TurboDog1 View Post
blackkitty -

OK...I'm going to go w/ Canada. Now, the data I could find is out of date, but can be used for general calculation purposes. If I'm reading this site correctly and adjust it manually for the 10 years variance, we can assume that Canada probably has unfunded liabilities in the area $120 and $150 billion. According to this site, Canada has a debt of roughly $520 billion. So, combined, we have a total debt in the area of $650 billion. According to this site, Canada's GDP is $1.5 trillion. If I do the same calculation ((debt+unf liab)/GDP), I get .43. That's a big difference from 8.5 x GDP.

I think that the issue here is that you were looking at debt/gdp w/out including unfunded liabilities in the calculations. Doing so, both countries appear to be in relatively the same situation. It's when you add the unfunded liabilities, the variation in that ratio become profound. The combination is manageable with their GDP. The combination for us spells a VERY BAD SITUATION. The average person doesn't realize how over-leveraged this country is. If they did, they'd be out in the streets marching to Washington w/ pitch-forks and torches.
The link from the Fraser Institute which you posted is from 1999. Here is a newer updated one from the Fraser institute from 2008 that puts Canada's unfunded liabilities at $1.3 trillion for 5 years. It really depends on how long into the future one looks to estimate unfunded liabilities. If it was 20 years obviously the amount is gonna much larger.

Quote:
The unfunded liabilities of Medicare, Old Age Security, and the Canada Pension Plan add up to $1.3 trillion and have increased by 22.9 per cent during the five-year period covered in the study. The unfunded liability of Old Age Security by itself grew by 27.3 per cent between 2000 and 2004.
http://www.fraserinstitute.org/newsa...news/5585.aspx

Current Canada Debt - $520 Billion
Unfunded Liabilities (5 years) - $1.3 Trillion
Canada GDP - $1.5 Trillion
= 0.75

Now do the same for the US. $3 Trillion per year according to David Walker in 2007.

Quote:
"We're underwater to the tune of $50 trillion, and that number is going up three to four trillion a year on autopilot. So we need to start getting serious soon in order to make sure that our future is better than our past," David Walker, the head of the Government Accountability Office, told CNN in a recent interview.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/03/27/pysk.walker/index.html

Current US Debt - $12 Trillion
Unfunded Liabilities (5 Years) - $15 Trillion
US GDP - $14 Trillion
= 0.51

Not a huge difference...and this is Canada...a 'fiscally responsible country'. Now do Japan or the UK. lol

I'm not saying its not bad or anything. On the contrary I've posted before about it that this will be a major issue that needs fixing. David Walker was featured in the documentary I.O.U.S.A. which I post on here quite frequently. But I know it will be fixed most likely through a VAT tax and will not cause the US to collapse. Whoever is prez will be the most hated prez of all time that brings it in of course...lol. Canada did the same a few years back with the GST.

Here is the trailer from IOUSA again...

Old 04-23-2010, 01:05 PM
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Default Re: Your opinion on how long the US has before it falls apart

Quote:
Originally Posted by Randall Flagg View Post
i'll just ask one more time since you have not got it yet.

Name ONE country that has as much debt and unfunded liabilitys as the us.
Name ONE country that has a bigger economy than the US and I'll answer that for you?
Old 04-23-2010, 01:09 PM
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Default Re: Your opinion on how long the US has before it falls apart

Quote:
Originally Posted by Randall Flagg View Post
lmfao, what if they cut s.s. to nothing?

good luck with that
They are already talking about cutting...so its in the works...

GOP rep. calls for cutting Social Security to those under 55

http://rawstory.com/2010/02/gop-rep-...l-security-55/

Obama's Budget Head Would Cut Social Security

http://www.alternet.org/economy/1089...cial_security/
Old 04-23-2010, 02:16 PM
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Default Re: Your opinion on how long the US has before it falls apart

And yet, those of us under 55 have been paying handsomely into the system for the retirees today. Just another example of generational warfare. It's as if the Boomers drank tainted water, causing them to despise the X/Y-Gen. They won't rest until the X/Y-Generation is utterly destitute.

Again, I say the real crime isn't the running up of massive deficits, it's the expectation that the victims should pay for it. It would be like this -- say someone steals your credit card, charges it up into the stratosphere. You call the company and immediately have the card de-activated. But YOU'RE expected to pay the bill. That's the REAL crime, the insult to injury.
Old 04-23-2010, 03:09 PM
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Default Re: Your opinion on how long the US has before it falls apart

I think the best way to help social security is to first cut off all those that don't need the money. A income means test should have been implemented years ago. I have no need for SS/Medicare and doubt I ever will but I can still sign up at 62 and get my little check. Something is very wrong with that!

Next would be getting rid of all the younger people collecting for very questionable disabilities. If everyone knew how many hardcore druggies & drunks are collecting monthly checks for their lifestyle choice they would be mad!

Red
Old 04-23-2010, 03:52 PM
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Default Re: Your opinion on how long the US has before it falls apart

Quote:
The link from the Fraser Institute which you posted is from 1999. Here is a newer updated one from the Fraser institute from 2008 that puts Canada's unfunded liabilities at $1.3 trillion for 5 years.
thats not for five years, the study was done over 5 years, ALL of canada's unfunded liability's come to a whopping total of 1.3 trillion, which makes sense based our your population figures.


Quote:
The unfunded liabilities of Medicare, Old Age Security, and the Canada Pension Plan add up to $1.3 trillion and have increased by 22.9 per cent during the five-year period covered in the study. The unfunded liability of Old Age Security by itself grew by 27.3 per cent between 2000 and 2004.

Quote:
Current US Debt - $12 Trillion
Unfunded Liabilities (5 Years) - $15 Trillion
US GDP - $14 Trillion
= 0.51
fuzzy numbers give you fuzzy results.

current national debt = 12 trillion
personal citizens debt = 16 trillion
unfunded liability's (using your number) =15 trillion

us gdp minus hedonics,imputations = 9-10 trillion

do the math
Old 04-23-2010, 10:36 PM
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Default Re: Your opinion on how long the US has before it falls apart

It will take awhile, I don't think everything will go down in one day, but instead over time.
Old 04-24-2010, 09:02 AM
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Default Re: Your opinion on how long the US has before it falls apart

Blackkitty - I have to go w/ Randall on this. You interpreted the 5 year time-line of the study to apply to the overall UL number not just the increase in UL intended by the author. As RF stated, the $1.3 Trillion number is the overall UL out into the future.

As stated in my post, my numbers were somewhat outdated, but accurate enough for basic calculation. In that context and in light of the above explanation, I still think that my original calculations are accurate. Comparing us to Canada does nothing more than show us how completely F'd up our finances are. Other countries have debt problems, but ours spans out generations, due to our unfunded liabilities.

If we actually intend to ever fix our true debt issues, the ONLY way is to touch the third rail of politics and start scalping entitlements. Cost-cutting elsewhere will do nothing to hold back the crushing weight of the entitlements, especially as they grow and become the majority of the budget. At that point, we are either forced to touch the 3rd rail or continue to borrow, converting that UL number into actual debt w/ nasty interest as we lose our AAA rating.....not sustainable.

There's only one way out and our politicians are too spineless and power-hungry to make that move. So, we will continue on this out-of-control bullet-train to hell until it finally runs off the cliff at the end of the tracks.
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Old 04-27-2010, 01:25 PM
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Default Re: Your opinion on how long the US has before it falls apart

Quote:
Originally Posted by TurboDog1 View Post
Blackkitty - I have to go w/ Randall on this. You interpreted the 5 year time-line of the study to apply to the overall UL number not just the increase in UL intended by the author. As RF stated, the $1.3 Trillion number is the overall UL out into the future.

As stated in my post, my numbers were somewhat outdated, but accurate enough for basic calculation. In that context and in light of the above explanation, I still think that my original calculations are accurate. Comparing us to Canada does nothing more than show us how completely F'd up our finances are. Other countries have debt problems, but ours spans out generations, due to our unfunded liabilities.

If we actually intend to ever fix our true debt issues, the ONLY way is to touch the third rail of politics and start scalping entitlements. Cost-cutting elsewhere will do nothing to hold back the crushing weight of the entitlements, especially as they grow and become the majority of the budget. At that point, we are either forced to touch the 3rd rail or continue to borrow, converting that UL number into actual debt w/ nasty interest as we lose our AAA rating.....not sustainable.

There's only one way out and our politicians are too spineless and power-hungry to make that move. So, we will continue on this out-of-control bullet-train to hell until it finally runs off the cliff at the end of the tracks.
Sorry my mistake. I saw 5 years. In order to figure out unfunded liabilities one must find a comparative example....for example if one ads these liabilities 10 years into the future and the other does 5 years obviously the one thats 10 years will be much higher. I've search throughout the net and can't find an equal comparative example. I did find this though...

Quote:
The Europeans and Canadians are in even worse shape than the Americans. The Americans have $60 Trillion dollars in net assets, and the richest per capita incomes and wealth in the West outside Norway [oil] and Switzerland. Canadian unfunded liabilities are close to $200.000 per tax paying slave only 50 % of US levels but at income and asset levels 35% below that of American levels. That is to say the Canadian state is looking at real unfunded liabilities of $300.000 per person with a more limited way of paying for it since all taxes in Canada are at far higher levels [about 30%] than US levels. Government is therefore more constrained in Canada to raise taxes than they would be in the US.
http://www.articlesbase.com/business...re-382046.html
Old 04-27-2010, 01:38 PM
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Default Re: Your opinion on how long the US has before it falls apart

Quote:
Originally Posted by Randall Flagg View Post
thats not for five years, the study was done over 5 years, ALL of canada's unfunded liability's come to a whopping total of 1.3 trillion, which makes sense based our your population figures.







fuzzy numbers give you fuzzy results.

current national debt = 12 trillion
personal citizens debt = 16 trillion
unfunded liability's (using your number) =15 trillion

us gdp minus hedonics,imputations = 9-10 trillion

do the math
Sorry my mistake on the Canada 5 year liabilities.

But I don't add numbers like 'personal citizens debt' to lop side my numbers. One would then have to add Canada personal citizens debt which is $1.3 Trillion.

http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/200...d-debt854.html

And there is someone worse than the US (Debt and Unfunded Liability wise). Its the EU. Total debt is $12 Trillion. Their (inflated as you say) GDP is $16.5 Trillion. And total unfunded liabilities is $100 Trillion. As you say...do the math...

Quote:
In Europe absolute unfunded liability levels are even worse than in the US. The Europeans have close to double the US unfunded liability level. EU unfunded liability levels are already at 300% of GDP or about $33 Trillion dollars and growing. By 2041 these unfunded liabilities will be 2-3 times US levels or close to $100 Trillion in total obligations. Compared to the US, Europe has lower per capita GDP, far lower net incomes, fewer assets, less people working and no productivity. It is pretty clear that Europe has no hope in paying $100 Trillion by 2041 in extra liability payments.
http://www.articlesbase.com/business...re-382046.html
Old 04-27-2010, 03:09 PM
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Default Re: Your opinion on how long the US has before it falls apart

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackkitty View Post
Sorry my mistake on the Canada 5 year liabilities.

But I don't add numbers like 'personal citizens debt' to lop side my numbers. One would then have to add Canada personal citizens debt which is $1.3 Trillion.

http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/200...d-debt854.html

And there is someone worse than the US (Debt and Unfunded Liability wise). Its the EU. Total debt is $12 Trillion. Their (inflated as you say) GDP is $16.5 Trillion. And total unfunded liabilities is $100 Trillion. As you say...do the math...



http://www.articlesbase.com/business...re-382046.html
um,yeah,debt be it personal or government is still debt.

and btw i did say country, but feel free to add the whole eurozone since you can find a single country.

good job
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